Daily Recommendation

No Bet Today


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YESTERDAY'S SUMMARY

It was typically Sods Law that the day I include in the
message a piece about how well things are going during
January and how results have been strong that we take
a slap in the face as we did on Tuesday. I went with the
Seller at Southwell and ARMY OF STARS who basically
couldn't reel in the winner finishing a dissapoiting third.
I think we had a lot of bad luck yesterday in several of
the races with things like fallers but in this case it wasn't bad luck it was probably a race where we were undone on a tactical level and I did not anticipate that correctly so we were left with a horse unable to concede a start to a front runner on a track that helped the pace setters so I blame myself for that. Had I decided against him then I would have gone with JACK THE SOLDIER who ran
a lot better than it looked. One horrible mistake killed
his chance but despite that he shaped well and could be
one to keep an eye on. The other highlighted bet was
an Ambitious 29/1 double and both horses came second.
BENTLEY was just run out of it in a close finish and I
think UBENKOR was very unlucky having missed the
break badly in his race. Overall though we had just one
bet and that was a loser on a dissapointing day overall.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS



TODAYS BEST BET

LINGFIELD 3.25

ILIE NASTASE 10/1 +


Neither Huntingdon or Musselburgh are favourite tracks
of mine and today has not traditionally been much good
for us to staying with the National Hunt at arms length
today. Kempton has only 1 race I like. Lingfield throws
together a very complicated card with few stand out bets.

My default position most days is that the Racing is very
hard with some days harder than others. Some days this
is true and obvious. On other occasions I say it because
something has not gone right with the study. I may have
miss-timed the message. I may not have got underneath
races well enough or may have spread myself too thinly
and produced something a bit bland and toothless. I feel
today is one of those days. It feels very dangerous and
speculative . It's probably not a message to follow from
start to finish. I'm not as happy as I should be with it.


Todays Best Options

Like it or not - and I don't - some of these Hurdle races
today scream each way doubles. I'm not going down that
route myself but those that want to do that have plenty
of good framed uncompetetive hurdle races which should
be quite safe. I'd nominate SILVERLORD (1.05) as ideal
for this. SPANISH TREASURE (1.15pm) is another that
has to be included. This pair probably do look worth the
risk and I'd see this as a sensible each way double today.

MUSSELBURGH 1.05 - SILVERLORD 6/4

HUNTINGDON 1.15 - SPANISH TREASURE 2/1

Each Way Double



TODAYS BEST BET

LINGFIELD 3.25

ILIE NASTASE 12/1



Decided to play it low key today and go with a bigger
priced horse. I am itching to get on with tomorrow's
cards as the meetings suit me much better and I find
the Lingfield-Musselburgh-Huntingdon cards boring
and find motivation hard so I will go with a big price
bet in a small field and enjoy better cards tomorrow.



On first glance ILIE NASTASE is not easy to fancy
even with just 5 runners in as 12f Claiming race. He
will appear to some to have limitations and that has
to be true but he has a far better chance in this race
than it first looks. I think there is a decent case that
SGT SCHULTZ will lack fitness. After all his now 8
and has ran just once since last August and has to go
up in trip and surely he can't be at his peak. There is
a couple of horses with big absences. PEACE CORPS
doesnt come out that well and is not unbeatable.


The option of ILIE NASTASE 12/1 is Bitter - Sweet.
The big downside is whether he will stay and whether
coming from 8f to 12f is going to be too much. On a
point of his stamina there's a doubt there but his price
compensates a lot for the risk. They often go slowly
here and its not a stiff 12f here and it may ride like a
10f race. If he will stay 12f anywhere its got to be at
this track. ILIE NASTASE is easily the fittest horse
in the race. That counts for plenty. What swings this
for me is the very small field. If you look at his career
in England in fields of 10 or more He's raced 19 times
in fields of 10 or more. ILIE NASTASE hasn't managed
to Place or win in any of these 19 races. He badly needs
a small field and he gets that today. Because of that and
because of doubts about the opposition and because he is
a decent price and the fittest horse in this race I ignore
the stamina doubts and risk him as my strongest bet. Go
easy today with the message. Its not very cutting edge.

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TODAY'S RACING


MUSSELBURGH 1.05

Evs Kaolak, 6/4 Silverlord, 17/2 Raleigh Quay
25/1 Northern Acres, 33/1 Jersey Boys, 33/1 Lisbon Lion
33/1 Via Archimede, 50/1 Dirleton, 50/1 Parc Des Princes
50/1 Takaatuf, 66/1 Davy Boy Legend, 100/1 Cool Baranca
200/1 Lambrini Lace.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle dominated by 4 horses. I dont
see any reason why RALEIGH QUAY can't win but he is
unraced and there are better options. KAOLAK has a big
chance but with No wins in 4 starts and coming from only
a maiden hurdle I wasn't impressed with him. I prefer the
chances of SILVERLORD and VIA ARCHIMEDE . There
is nothing wrong with VIA ARCHIMEDE as the only ones
to win with 1 run and long absences were 6 year olds and as
both were well beaten last time I have to respect him. Its
hard to know about Irish raider SILVERLORD but I do not
see a strong argument against him and he is respected. I'd
see SILVERLORD as comfortably the best risk at 2/1. It
is an each way double race to be fair but for those who do
not like those bets my choice is SILVERLORD.

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HUNTINGDON 1.15

2/1 Araldur, 9/4 Spanish Treasure, 11/2 Alystar
13/2 Robin De Creuse, 12/1 High Hoylander, 14/1 Mr Chow
16/1 Nobunaga, 20/1 Prince Of Dreams, 25/1 Lombok
33/1 Fourth In Line, 33/1 Kayaan, 50/1 Ptolomeos
66/1 Bahr Nothing, 100/1 Whatshallwedo.

There are only a few potential winners of this 2m Novice
Hurdle. ALYSTAR is an unraced 5yo mare. These horses
are 2-42 so she has to be respected from Henderson's and
I can't ignore her. ARALDUR is a big runner but his profile
was only average and I would want a better one for a horse
at his price. ROBIN DE CREUSE has an acceptable profile.
All 3 of these can be described as "acceptable". A stronger
profile comes from SPANISH TREASURE. Its a good one
without being anything special but SPANISH TREASURE
comes out best for me in a race for an each way double

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LINGFIELD 1.25

Blue Square Wish Crawley Town Good Luck
Apprentice Handicap (CLASS 6)(4yo+ 0-60) 7f

3/1 Pilgrim Dancer, 100/30 Chinese Democracy
9/2 Bollywood Style, 9/2 Laser Ruby, 8/1 Ede´s Dot Com
10/1 Decency, 10/1 Ivory Lace, 14/1 Valentino Swing.

This is an Apprentice Handicap over 7f. I have looked at all similar races for all jockeys as well. Horses with absences are vulnerable. IVORY LACE as a 10 year old mare with a break of 74 days looks wrong. EDE'S DOT COM is also rejected as he has an absence and just 1 run since last July and several of these could be fitter. BOLLYWOOD STYLE is unsafe as she is an exposed mare with an absence and no backclass. I looked at 4yo Fillies like LASER RUBY coming from a 6f handicap and found a poor 2-101 record. Neither were as inexperienced as she is and both had more backclass than she does. I think it will probably be won by one of the other 4 runners. The record of 4yo fillies like CHINESE DEMOCRACY and DECENCY is not strong but both were similar to 1 winner and I have to be positive about their chance. VALENTINO SWING comes out like one winner. PILGRIM DANCER is also respected as he's an unexposed 4 year old winning last time. I am taking a risk with my selection but the price does make some appeal and I
did feel he was unlucky last time and badly impeded.

SELECTION

VALENTINO SWING Each Way 14/1

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MUSSELBURGH 1.35

11/4 Lovey Dovey, 3/1 Sweet Caroline, 5/1 Brave Beauty
6/1 Aneyeforaneye, 7/1 Streamtown, 11/1 Miss Abbey
12/1 Sara´s Smile, 16/1 Moscow Mischief, 33/1 Proficiency.

I thought this was a desperate Mares Novice Hurdle with
very few similar races and No strong profiles. The only
objection to LOVEY DOVEY is that horses coming via
Bumpers when absent more than 10 weeks were 0-31 so
she looks questioable. MOSCOW MISCHIEF did not run
well enough last time and neither did SARA´S SMILE so
these look weak. SWEET CAROLINE is the only 4yo in
the race. All the 4 year olds I found that won had at least
one more run and I can't match him. ANEYEFORANEYE
has a good place chance and may well be the sensible each
way bet of the race. I found many horses with her profile
Placing but none winning. The only horse I can match to
a winner was STREAMTOWN and she has to be respected
much as she hardly feels safe. If I was betting here and I'm not then I would have a tiny bit on STREAMTOWN at a
big price with my main bet ANEYEFORANEYE each way.

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HUNTINGDON 1.45

13/8 Marching Song, 3/1 Buckie Boy, 11/2 Cozy Tiger
11/2 Yvonne Evelyn, 10/1 Spiritual Guidance, 12/1 Ezdiyaad
16/1 Somewhatinevitable, Mr Madeit, 28/1 Crackerjac Boy
28/1 Major Potential, 40/1 Lureyno, 50/1 Float My Boat
50/1 Wavertree Bounty, 66/1 Graylyn Amber.

There are too many unraced horses in this Novice Hurdle.
I wouldnt want an unraced mare so YVONNE EVELYN is
rejected. I find it interesting COZY TIGER is sired by the
Flat horse Hold That Tiger who has never bred a winner
away from the sand before. I think he is opposable from
a stable thats never trained a winner over hurdles before.
Neither SPIRITUAL GUIDANCE or EZDIYAAD makes
much appeal. This may be about what level of ability the
unraced BUCKIE BOY has and if MARCHING SONG can
use his experience to beat him. Statistically as a 5yo with
3 winless runs its a very tight decision. One option might
well be MARCHING SONG in the each way double

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HUNTINGDON 2.15

5/4 Honourable Arthur, 3/1 Timpo, 5/1 Rileyev
6/1 Ratify, 12/1 Golden Dream, 16/1 Herald Angel.

This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 3 Miles. No strong
profiles here. I respect TIMPO but he is 6 and his absence
really pulls down his numbers as he is quite experienced for a 6 year old. I felt the same with RILEYEV who also has a testing absence for a 6 year old. RATIFY does nothing for me. GOLDEN DREAM has been gambled but he comes via a 2m Novice Hurdle. I found 1 winner doing that but he is a different type. That winner had twice as many runs and more backclass and was younger and I could not match him right. I tipped HONOURABLE ARTHUR when he won last
time. I think he is the safest choice here. He jumped very
well that day. Good rather than great profile but I did not
see a horse I'd want to oppose him with.

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LINGFIELD 2.25

Hollow Lane Handicap (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-65) 6f

9/4 Radiator Rooney, 5/2 Pelmanism, 6/1 Decider
6/1 Nubar Boy, 8/1 Trade Centre, 10/1 Charles Darwin
16/1 Cheveyo, 16/1 Starwatch.

This is a 0-60 handicap over 6f. There are 356 similar races at this time of year. The odd 8 year old has won with a long absence but I don't want CHARLES DARWIN as all his wins come at a different time of year and every other runner has a run within the past 2 weeks. DECIDER is exposed and won a 5f Handicap last time. No horse won with that profile when aged 8 or more like him or without form in at least a Class 4 race and he lacks that so I am taking him on. CHEVEYO is weak coming from a 5f race when lacking any real backclass and any previous wins. NUBAR BOY isnt a negative but all exposed 4 year olds like him down from a 7f race had a 1-34 record and that winner ran better than he did last time and I just felt he fell short. I would oppose these four horses.

SHORTLIST

STARWATCH is like one winner and is respected. I would
shortlist PELMANISM as an unexposed 4 year old and that
and his recent run makes up for stepping up in trip. If I had one problem it was just one run since September. I would be happier if TRADE CENTRE had ran a bit better last time but more than happy he is similar to some winners and can not be underestimated. RADIATOR ROONEY won last time and is shortlistable but he is 8 now and only one horse as old as him won with his profile and like many he is only average statistically and not very strong.

SELECTION - Split Stake Bet

TRADE CENTRE 12/1 +
STARWATCH 8/1 +

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HUNTINGDON 2.45

7/2 Salpierre, 6/1 Cross Kennon, 13/2 Kauto The Roc
15/2 Pocketwood, 8/1 I´ve Been Framed, 10/1 Arctic Court
11/1 Stow, 12/1 Saintly Lady, 12/1 Vagrant Emperor
14/1 Moghaayer, 14/1 Mr Moonshine, 16/1 Firm Order
20/1 Go Amwell, 25/1 Arkose, 25/1 Sullumo.

This is a quality Handicap Hurdle over 3m 2f. The slight
problem here is so few similar races to derive any angles
from. What few there are show Males are best. You dont
want a horse coming from 2m 4f or shoreter. Chasers do
not score well either. I am a little dissapointed with the
lack of angles. Some of the negatives are MOGHAAYER
who is underraced. I´VE BEEN FRAMED has a profile to
avoid. MR MOONSHINE and ARKOSE look wrong. Not
many of these came out well but I still had to shortlist 4

SALPIERRE - KAUTO THE ROC
CROSS KENNON - ARCTIC COURT

The strongest profiles in this race are ARCTIC COURT
and SALPIERRE and I'd see this pair as standing out.

SELECTION

Win Bet SALPIERRE 7/2

Place Bet ARCTIC COURT 9/4 +

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MUSSELBURGH 3.05

7/2 Ballymacduff, 7/2 Sonara, 5/1 More Equity
6/1 Grand Union, 8/1 Latin Connection, 8/1 Vallani
10/1 Twentypoundluck, 16/1 Everaard, 20/1 Western Bound
33/1 Soprano.

This is a tricky 3m Handicap Hurdle. Several of these fell
short of what is required. I didnt like seasonal debutants in these races. None were as old as WESTERN BOUND and
none like GRAND UNION from a Novice Handicap. Last
years second SONARA would be better with more races in
this season. VALLANI fell short as a mare. I wouldnt rule
out LATIN CONNECTION or MORE EQUITY and both
are respected. TWENTYPOUNDLUCK has been gambled
so warrants respect but I couldnt match him to a winner as
he comes from a Maiden Hurdle. BALLYMACDUFF has a
decent profile and He looks the most likely winner to me.

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HUNTINGDON 3.15

Not a normal preview in the Novice Chase at 3.15pm. I
couldnt split MASTER OF THE HALL running below his
level in a Graded Chase or VORAMAR TWO running well
in an ordinary race. I wouldnt put you off either and if It
came down to a guess it would be VORAMAR TWO.

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LINGFIELD 3.25

Tandridge Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (4yo+) 1m4f

5/4 Sgt Schultz, 7/4 Peace Corps
6/1 Ilie Nastase, 8/1 Tifernati, 14/1 Sagunt.

This is aa 12f Claiming race. There are 115 of these races
at this time of year. ILIE NASTASE comes from 8f and I
don't think he will find it easy to step up 4f to a distance he has never tried before. SAGUNT has been absent a long time for an 8 year old especially from a small stable with a 0-36 record with their Flat horses. TIFERNATI pulled up over hurdles just 8 days ago. It was his only run since last March and that suggests he may not be fit enough and may not have enough recovery time. I see this between either PEACE CORPS or SGT SCHULTZ. Statistically if you run both profiles then PEACE CORPS struggles with a lack of backclass and experience and SGT SCHULTZ has easily a better profile. His problem is that he is 8 and he has only had 1 run since last August and probably could do with one more race to ensure his fitness. The race will be around his fitness and whether it leaves him vulnerable to a horse in PEACE CORPS who has a weaker profile. I couldnt call it but I am going to take the chance on ILIE NASTASE.


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HUNTINGDON 3.45

The 3.45pm is too difficult and too many runners. Had I
done the race I'd have opposed WELL HELLO THERE
with 3 runs and from a 2m race. Horses with big absences
like RED NOT BLUE struggled and he didn't come out as
well as I'd want. HEEZ A CRACKER comes out badly too
as a 5yo hammered in a Novice Hurdle. CHAIM also has
a weak profile. I would have avoided those runners but its
wide open.

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LINGFIELD 4.25

Play Rainbow Riches At bluesq.com
Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75)1m

100/30 Scary Movie, 7/2 Lisahane Bog, 4/1 One Oi
5/1 Tuxedo, 8/1 Charlie Smirke, 10/1 Lockantanks
10/1 Masked Dance, 12/1 Prince Of Thebes.

* This is an 8f Handicap for 0-72 rated horses
* There are 506 similar races at this time of year
* MASKED DANCE comes from a 6f race
* Horses doing that had a poor 9-227 record
* Those without form in at least Class 2 before struggled
* These horses had a miserable 1-165 record
* Those aged 4 like MASKED DANCE were 0-80
* He doesnt have the backclass to come from 6f
* PRINCE OF THEBES is 10 and absent 51 days
* Horses aged 9 or more absent over a month are 0-38
* PRINCE OF THEBES may lack the fitness to win
* SCARY MOVIE has an unorthodox profile
* He is 6 yet only has 11 runs and comes down from 10f
* Almost all horses his age down in trip were exposed
* Those like him that had 5-20 career starts were 0-31
* Statistically he falls down being too lightly raced for a 6yo
* LOCKANTANKS is 4 and comes from a 7f race
* I looked at 4 year olds doing that with 13 + runs
* Those with no form in Class 2 or higher before were 1-75
* LOCKANTANKS has never been out of Class 4 before

POSSIBLES

* CHARLIE SMIRKE is an exposed 5yo from an 8f race
* Statistically he is good enough to shortlist
* He is hard to read though and difficult to catch right
* I would also have prefered a bit less weight and better draw
* LISAHANE BOG is an exposed 4yo from an 8f handicap
* With no form beyond a Class 4 race and a recent run he is ok
* I have found 4 similar winners in 506 races
* Against him is all his wins coming at 7f
* He is 0-12 racing at a Mile and more
* Overall though he is a positive
* TUXEDO is 6 and comes from a Mile Handicap
* TUXEDO has plenty in his favour with a recent run
* Against him is all his wins coming at 7f
* He is 0-19 racing at a Mile and more
* He is also 0-7 going left handed as well
* Statistically strong his problems are trip and track
* ONE OI is a positive and could be improving
* He won 2 starts ago and looked well handicapped
* His last run was second at Kempton easily excusable
* He had a very bad draw that day and that hurt him
* ONE OI could easily bounce back to win this

SELECTION

ONE OI Each Way 4/1 +

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KEMPTON 5.05

Betdaq Multiples Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 5f

3/1 Northern Dare, 11/2 Island Legend, 6/1 Efistorm
7/1 Straboe, 9/1 Ability N Delivery, 10/1 Sherjawy
11/1 Fromsong, 12/1 Fear Nothing, 12/1 Riflessione
12/1 Whiskey Junction, 16/1 Cape Royal, Orchid Wing.

This is a 5f Handicap for 0-74 rated horses. The Draw looks
important here. Go back in all handicaps here since the start of 2010 with 9 or more runners. You find 17 handicaps and in these races horses drawn 1-23 have a 0-40 record. Avoid the low draws. ABILITY N DELIVERY has the worst draw and with him being exposed and absent a while I couldnt bet him. I'm against FEAR NOTHING and CAPE ROYAL who are also badly drawn. FROMSONG is not for me aged 13 as he doesnt have a recent run.ORCHID WING looks wrong. I
can not rule out ISLAND LEGEND and wouldnt make him
a negative but He isnt my choice. His 85 day absence is the
longest one in the race and he has never won from his mark
before. STRABOE could have done with a better draw.

SHORTLIST

There are worse outsiders than WHISKEY JUNCTION but
statistically he didnt achieve enough last time out beaten a bit too far. NORTHERN DARE won nicely last time and is
shortlistable. I ran his profile and my only problem was the weight. All similar horses that won managed it with at least 7lbs less weight and that takes the shine off him.
hard to win with RIFLESSIONE has a decent profile as well
as does EFISTORM who I had no strong arguments against.

STRONGEST PROFILE

* SHERJAWY looks an option here
* Horses aged 7
* Coming from a 6f Handicap
* Having a very recent run
* No form beyon a Class 3 race before
* Beaten under 6 lengths last time out
* I found 5 winners with this profile
* SHERJAWY is well handicapped at the moment
* He loves the track and is well drawn
* SHERJAWY is the selection

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