No Selection Today

Short message as I have Sunday commitments so
it would not be sensible to give a selection on the
day. Not without prices being available but I quite
like a bet at Kempton today and wouldnt put you
off having a bet today as there are good reasons.

K e m p t o n 4.15

GAZBOOLOU 7/1 Win Bet

GALLANTRY 6/1 Saver

There are a lot of interesting negatives in this
Mile Handicap and I think we can be optimistic
here. I could have gone with either horse so the
saver on GALLANTRY looks important with a
win bet on GAZBOOLOU who has every chance.


M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

I wasn't going to bother with a message today but
I found a race I wanted to write up and knowing it
wouldn't take too long decided to whip it into this
short message which looks at one race at Kempton.


S a t u r d a y 's R e v i e w

One of those truly exceptional days yesterday and
it didn't come out of the blue as the messages over
recent days and weeks have been of a high quality.
Not all of these provided bets every day and there
were times you had to work at them but Saturday's
message was simple yet very effective. I was going
to go with RAYA STAR who won the Ladbroke to
finish a brilliant message but I talked myself out of
that. It didn't matter by then as I had already given
a 28/1 winning double with WATER GARDEN and
LOYALTY. Once you take the stakes and how the
bet was divided up it come out somewhere between
an 8/1 and 12/1 winner depending on what prices
you took in the morning with the added bonus of a
profit after the first leg. No point Eulogising about
it. The work was impressive but both horses had a
brilliant ride especially Loyalty and sometimes we
all need that as many a time bad jockeyship either
deliberately or otherwise can ruin a good bet. Great
work and this sets us up nicely for the week before
Christmass , Boxing day and the Welsh National.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


K e m p t o n 4.15

Play Roulette At bluesq.com/casino Handicap
(CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-65) 1m

4/1 Isdaal, 5/1 Gallantry, 6/1 Fitz, 6/1 Land Hawk
7/1 Hecton Lad, 10/1 Gazboolou, 10/1 Valley Tiger
12/1 Green Earth, Handsome King, 16/1 Cottonfields
25/1 Buxton.

* This is a mile Handicap for horses rated 0-63
* There are 162 similar races at this time of year
* LAND HAWK looked a vulnerable favourite to me
* He has only raced once since June 2010
* Seems a concern for a 5yo with 17 career starts
* Take horses with 13 or more career starts
* Those with 1 or 2 runs that season were 0-41
* LAND HAWK looks too old for 1 run this season
* HANDSOME KING comes out badly
* He is 4 and has not run in 153 days
* Just 1 run this season and flaws all over his profile
* COTTONFIELDS has beeen absent 485 days
* I Can't find a winner like him and he is unsafe
* VALLEY TIGER lost by 31 lengths just 9 days ago
* Thats not the preparation you want from a 3yo
* I looked at 3 year olds beaten 10 + lengths last time
* Those running in a handicap in the last 2 weeks are 0-49
* Tells me VALLEY TIGER is unlikely to overcome that
* ISDAAL is a 4yo filly with just 6 runs
* I looked at 4yo fillies in the 162 similar races
* Plenty of winners but they all had lots more experience
* They all had more runs that season as well
* GREEN EARTH was well beaten last time over 10f
* I looked at horses well beaten over further
* There was a weak record and he has limited backclass
* His last 3 runs came over 6f 12f 10f
* He is being messed about with too much for me
* GREEN EARTH has an unsafe profile
* HECTON LAD has only had 1 run since last June
* He may have gone off too fast in that race
* It is still only one well beaten bad run since last June
* He may pop up but I couldnt find a 4yo winning like him
* I see him as a "Possible" but just a bit too unsafe
* BUXTON - Didnt do enough for me last time
* I think the race he comes from will provide this winner
* He was behind 3 others that also run today
* I felt these are more likely winners than BUXTON

S h o r t l i s t

GAZBOOLOU - GALLANTRY - FITZ

Quite happy with my negatives even if I am taking
the odd chance here and there. I think these three
horses should provide the winner and its interesting
they all come from the same Lingfield race 11 days
ago which I think will produce the winner today.

They all ran quite well. GALLANTRY was 4th that
day finishing ahead of GAZBOOLOU in 7th place
and FITZ in 8th place. I dont want to get hung up
on weights and measures and which horse has this
or that weight pull. Lets face it Lingfield form can
never been relied upon to work out. This is a right
handed track today so its completely different so
with less than a length and a half seperating these
three horses its farcical to go down that method
of study and they are all ridden by different pilots
today so I'm just happy they all ran well last time.

I want to take out FITZ first of all. I do prefer the
two other horses. Complicated profile but I liked
the other profiles far better and it came down to
the fact that FITZ gives weight to the other two
when having considerably less backclass than they
do. The weight doesn't bother me its just a short
illustration than FITZ hasn't achieved nearly as
much as both other horses have and looking for
5 year olds with only Class 4 backclass I couldn't
find any like him and I think he is the weak one.

There is no problem with 9 year olds winning like
GALLANTRY as long as they fit two requirements.
They must have at least Class 2 backclass before as
he does and they must have a recent run as well so
I see GALLANTRY as a positive. He is effective
over this Course and Distance and has won races
here from much higher handicap marks. He is fit
and running well and is a legitimate threat to us.

GAZBOOLOU also has Class 2 backclass and has
two years less on the clock. He is another that is
very fit and running well and fully effective over
this course and distance. I highlighted him on his
penultimate run at Lingfied on November 23rd.
He was one of 4 options for a selection that day
and he only lost in a photo. Things didnt go as
right for him last time but he still ran well and I
dont think he had the run of the race. He has a
good draw here and is much more a Kempton
sort of horse and he has every chance in this.

S e l e c t i o n

GAZBOOLOU 7/1 Win Bet

GALLANTRY 6/1 Saver Bet

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