M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

&

T o d a y' s S e l e c t i o n s


No Advised Bet Today



The problem today is serious rain is coming and
said to be hitting everywhere. I have to produce
the message knowing that the ground will change
everywhere. There is no way of knowing just how
much rain there will be or when it will fall so this
is going to be the single biggest issue of the day.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today. Plenty has been covered though so
there should be something for everyone today.

There are a couple of horses that appealed a bit
more than the rest. The Newbury 2.20 is always
interesting as a Group Class sprint. I think this
race can be won by REGAL PARADE 9/2 given
ground conditions and with weak profiles around
his main rivals I liked his chance of winning this.

Less predictable as a race the 4.30pm at Ripon
also interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

I intend to have win bets on REGAL PARADE
and BLUE DEER and a small each way double
as well. There will not be winner after winner
today being a rain hit Saturday but with careful
navigation its a message that should be a help.


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F r i d a y ' s S u m m a r y

I knew the message was never going to be a classic.
In the end it was below par and unimpressive but it
wasn't a disaster by any means. The best was at the
end with POWERFUL PIERRE. I could easily have
made him the bet and probably should have but the
horse I did go with HAL OF A LOVER was beaten
into second by the outsider. The winner was simply
a surprise. There were huge stamina doubts. I think
the key was the pace of the race. We were a stayer
and the winner more of a Miler. Small field and the
slow pace meant that at the finish we were crying
out for a stiffer test and the winner was able to use
his milers speed to catch us. I think the result was
determined by a slow early pace that didnt suit us.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



The N e w b u r y 1.45 does not offer me enough decent
angles with only one negative in Letsgoroundagain as he
is up in distance and took too long to win his maiden. I
would just prefer Coupe De Ville given the choice here.


Equally we know little about the N e w m a r k e t 2.00
maiden. I would see DIAMONDHEAD as the most likely
winner as the only horse with experience but he is priced
up with that in mind and doesnt offer anything special.


No great interest this year in the big Handicap Hurdle at
Market Rasen in the 2.05pm. I would have avoided any
4yo like Street Entertainer with that sort of weight and
an absence and I didnt see him as safe. Had it been faster
ground I'd have gone wth Rajnagan but he wont want a
lot of rain. I'd be more drawn to FAIR GALE as a 6yo
with decent flat form that won a handicap last time out.



R i p o n 2.15

It is hard to get away from KIMBALI in this 2yo maiden
with the benefit of experience. I do prefer him with a run
to unraced fillies LADY HELLO and SHOW OF FAITH.
When you consider than in the maiden KIMBALI ran in
he easily beat TRUST FUND BABE and as the latter was
only a 66/1 chance I would expect him to do that again.
I wouldnt want a bet here and he will only be the price he
should be but force me to choose and it's KIMBALI .



N e w b u r y 2.20

11/4 Deacon Blues, 100/30 Regal Parade
4/1 Markab, 6/1 Pastoral Player, 12/1 Jimmy Styles
14/1 Royal Rock, 20/1 Atlantic Sport, 25/1 Angel´s Pursuit
25/1 Retainer, 33/1 Cape To Rio.

* The Hackwood Stakes is a Group 3 over 6f
* MARKAB - I dont like him from a 5f race
* In this and similar races horses from 5f underperform
* None had his absence or were as old as him
* No winners aged 3-4-5 won from a 5f race either
* PASTORAL PLAYER fails that and is also rejected
* Horses from 7f or more had a 1-31 record
* ANGEL´S PURSUIT looks the wrong type to do this
* RETAINER is also wrong from a 7f race
* CAPE TO RIO is weak from a 3yo handicap
* DEACON BLUES - doesnt convince me from handicaps
* I don't like his lack of backclass
* I dont like how lightly raced he is this year
* ROYAL ROCK is respected with Group 1 form
* JIMMY STYLES also has that but may be flattered
* ATLANTIC SPORT is very hard to read
* Respected from a good trial race but his draw is a worry
* REGAL PARADE a positive like 2 past winners
* REGAL PARADE is identical to the 2006 winner

Selection

REGAL PARADE looks the bet to me



N e w m a r k e t 2.35

2/1 Wild Coco, 4/1 Meeznah, 11/2 Ceilidh House
13/2 Sea Of Heartbreak, 9/1 Imperial Pippin
10/1 Charleston Lady, 12/1 Never Forget, 12/1 Opera Gal
20/1 Plaisterer, 25/1 Gallic Star, 40/1 Monicalew.

The Aphrodite Stakes is for fillies over 12f and its always
a difficult race. No horses come from the best trial race at Haydock. My problem with WILD COCO is that she comes
from a Maiden and all 12 horses doing that lost and whilst
she was impressive she only has 2 runs and little experience. Horses with 1 run this season have won this race but both were very lightly raced with under 6 career starts less than NEVER FORGET, MEEZNAH and CEILIDH HOUSE have. SEA OF HEARTBREAK has a good chance but marginally
better was IMPERIAL PIPPIN from a stable that have won
this race 5 times before. Given the once raced horses look
hard to read and favourite WILD COCO is clearly strongly
fancied and has had her form boosted I would see my best
chance here coming with a split staked bet win and place.

IMPERIAL PIPPIN - Win Bet 12/1
SEA OF HEARTBREAK - Place Bet 7/4




R i p o n 2.50

2/1 Rustic Deacon, 6/1 Dazeen, 6/1 Scrapper Smith
7/1 Buzz Law, 12/1 First Class Favour, 12/1 Ginger Jack
14/1 Georgebernardshaw, 14/1 Lucky Windmill
16/1 J R Hartley, 16/1 Tartan Gigha, 20/1 Illustrious Prince.

This is a Mile Handica for 0-84 rated horses. I thought
there was loads of fascinating issues here. The first one
is should we bet or oppose favourite RUSTIC DEACON.
I wanted to try and get him beaten despite a progressive
profile. He won last time but he's very lightly raced this
year and has a 33 day break and all similar 4yo winners
I found had less absence and more runs that year so He
didn't impress me. I dont like DAZEEN much. He is an
exposed 4 year old that comes from a 7f race. Plenty
of 4 year olds managed that but all of them had form
in at least a Class 2 Grade before. DAZEEN has never
been out of Class 4 and fails for a lack of backclass. If
you take fillies from 3yo handicaps you find those of
them with 7 + runs like FIRST CLASS FAVOUR had a
0-44 record and as she has 18 runs she is wrong. Also
wrong statistically look inexperienced J R HARTLEY
and trip jumper ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE. An absence
hurts LUCKY WINDMILL and TARTAN GIGHA is
so far out of form and won't want the rain so looks a
bit too unsafe. These would be my negatives but now
I start to run into some problems and some dilemmas.

S h o r t l i s t

GEORGEBERNARDSHAW has not been running too
well but he is very well handicapped and comes out as
acceptable statistically and all his wins are right handed
like today so he is a player at a big price. BUZZ LAW
has one of the best profiles in the race but his problem
will be whether the ground turns soft as there must be
doubts about him handling any ground change. To my
great surprise SCRAPPER SMITH has to be shortlisted
even with 1 run this year and an absence as I've found
winners with his profile in similar races. He would not
be my first choice but my angles say do not assume he
can't win with one run this year. GINGER JACK is also
shortlistable with my main concern with him being all
simlar winners like him had quite a bit less weight. All
4 of these have some concerns. BUZZ LAW looks a
more attractive option and if rains come I will hope
its later + not ground changing. BUZZ LAW for me
but also take the save on Ginger Jack.



N e w b u r y 2.55

7/4 Heavenly Dawn, 6/1 Watneya, 8/1 Belle Royale
10/1 Byrony, 10/1 Matula, 12/1 Al Mayasah, 14/1 Bahati
14/1 Imaginary World, 16/1 Rosedale, 16/1 Sonning Rose
20/1 Doricemay.

This is a fillies handicap over 8f. There are only 35 similar races at this time of year. HEAVENLY DAWN has just one race this season and that worries me. Only 1 of the winners in 35 races had just one race that year and that winner was a 3yo. I dont like BELLE ROYALE as all 3yo winners had under 13 runs and IMAGINARY WORLD is out for similar reasons. MATULA is unsafe. ROSEDALE would be better with a more recent run or more that season. WATNEYA
is hard to read. Beaten a little too far last time. I'd respect her but she's unsafe. BYRONY has a reasonable profile and looks one of the better ones on paper but her sire has not got a good record on softer ground and that may beat her. Not happy about any of these so going with an outsider here. I dont see why BAHATI cant win. He wasnt beaten too far last time behind the favourite and could be fitter and does have soft ground form. BAHATI each way.




N e w m a r k e t 3.10

11/2 Give Your Verdict, 6/1 Bahceli, 9/1 Nelson´s Bounty
10/1 Desert Romance, 11/1 Kajima 11/1 Snow Bay
11/1 Viva Ronaldo, 12/1 Arabian Spirit 12/1 Circumvent
14/1 Audemar, 14/1 Dubai Dynamo 14/1 Namecheck
16/1 Wannabe King, 25/1 Benandonner, 40/1 World Heritage.

This is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile. It's a new race so
no angles to look at but we have 45 similar races in July.
I would avoid seasonal debutant GIVE YOUR VERDICT
from a 3yo handicap. None have won in the 45 races so
with them scoring very badly in all Class 2 Handicaps as
well he looks opposable. I'd avoid all the 8 year olds and
over like BENANDONNER. Horses from 7f races have
a poor record. None of these were exposed. All 36 that
were lost so DUBAI DYNAMO is out. No horse won at
7f last time like VIVA RONALDO so I'm opposing him.
NAMECHECK is respected but not quite right coming
from a 7f race and I feel the same about KAJIMA too.
Horses aged 3 struggle and none like BAHCELI lost on
their latest start. I dont like DESERT ROMANCE with
a nasty absence and as no horse has won a handicap at
Newmarket from Stall 1 in over 5 years he looks wrong.
I dont like WORLD HERITAGE. I see CIRCUMVENT
needing 1 more run this season. NELSON´S BOUNTY
fails for a lack of backclass. I have to shortlist Four.

WANNABE KING - AUDEMAR
SNOW BAY - ARABIAN SPIRIT

Wide open and I have to guess and mine is SNOW BAY
mainly because he will handle the ground and has raced
recently and is consistently in good form.



R i p o n 3.25

This is a Class 2 handicap for 3 year olds over 12f. I didnt
want to commit to the race as we only have 16 races like
this in July. What these 16 races have told us so far is that horss from Maiden races have a 0-19 record and that is a problem for favourite MIDNIGHT OIL who I would have
to avoid. KING OF THE CELTS also fails that. I did not
see LADY AMAKHALA as safe lightly raced this season
after a win. Drawing stumps here and staying with only a
few negatives. I wanted a big sample size to assess a horse
like ITTIRAD from a 2m Group race but so far none of
the winners came from Group races or 2m races so he is
unsafe but as I say I needed more evidence and I'm neutral
about him. I am staying with my negatives here and dont
feel I have enough positives to formulate a safe selection
but I didnt have any problems with MOTIVADO here.



N e w b u r y 3.30

7/2 Eureka, 11/2 Sweet Chilli, 7/1 Lily´s Angel
9/1 Ponty Acclaim, 9/1 Redact, 12/1 On The Dark Side
16/1 Hamza, 20/1 Alejandro, 20/1 Charles The Great
20/1 Pyman´s Theory, 25/1 Impassive, 25/1 Mention
25/1 Nagham, 25/1 Orders From Rome, 33/1 Airborne Again
33/1 Blanc De Chine, 33/1 Electric Qatar, 33/1 Pen Bal Crag
33/1 Signifer, 40/1 Ebony Clarets, Free Zone Profile Star
50/1 Right Result, Princess Banu, 100/1 Jimmy The Lollipop.

* The Super Sprint is for 2 year olds over 5f
* There are 19 renewals of this race
* No past winner had 6 or more career starts
* Horses with 4 + runs won 6 of the 19 races
* All 6 winners came from Group races
* LILY´S ANGEL has 6 runs from Listed class a worry
* Most past winners had ran in Class 3 or higher before
* Those that have not much be avoided if this applies
* They must be avoided if having 3 + runs
* They must be avoided if Male
* They must be avoided if Losing last time
* They must be avoided if dropping in distance
* REDACT comes a cropper on those angles
* MENTION also falls at this stage
* Male horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-68
* No past winner came from Nurseries
* No winners came from maidens with 3 or more runs
* Avoid Horses from conditions races in class 4 or lower
* Those with 4 + runs and no Group form struggled
* No horse was beaten over 10 lengths over 5f last time
* I looked at Males from 5f Group races
* Both winners had 5 career runs and were 1-2-3-4-5 last time
* SWEET CHILLI is respected but not quite right

Shortlist

* ON THE DARK SIDE - Very similar to 2004 winner
* EUREKA - Has the same profile as the 1994 winner
* IMPASSIVE - Like 1996 and 2008 winners
* As for the selection take your pick
* EUREKA clearly most likely but a short price
* The other pair are riskier but more rewardable
* I will take a guess on IMPASSIVE
* She is similar to more winners and a recent one
* IMPASSIVE each way for me


N e w m a r k e t 4.15

This is a 7f maiden. I didnt want LAY TIME not for
any statistical reasons as she is fine but because I liked
two more. She is a filly without a run this year and the
males with runs made a bit more appeal. Despite 4 runs
I thought DANEHILL DANTE came out well and has
to be considered as a decent each way bet if 8 run. The
better bet may be RAYMBEK BATYR and I'd just side
with him. Given an educational race on his debut this
horse cost a small fortune and they will want a win.


R i p o n 4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a "Maiden" handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
LADY PLATINUM CLUB and EENY MAC have to
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week. EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection - BLUE DEER


M a r k e t R a s e n 4.55

No idea what will win this Novice Handicap Chase
but PRINCELY HERO looked at dodgy favourite
to me. Partly because heavy rain may not suit him
and his best form is on better ground. I also feel he
may not stay this far. Its 2f further than last time
and the furthest he has gone before and his sire is
not one for long distance stayers. I was hoping he
may have been shorter but if he goes odds on with
a few fences to jump I'd be inclined to oppose him.


R i p o n 5.05

This is a horrible looking handicap and aside from one
or two very brief comments I am bailing out. First of
all the negative has to be HOT ROD MAMMA as she
is a filly winning over 7f last time and now almost at
10f and she is all wrong. I'd see her as a very unlikely
winner. The only other thing I intend to say is about
the match bet. I feel MARKET PUZZLE is safer bet
than Royal Bonsai and will predict he finishes ahead.



N e w b u r y 5.10

100/30 Keys, 6/1 Cosimo De Medici, 10/1 Dynamic Drive
10/1 Momkinzain, 12/1 Addwaitya, 12/1 Baltimore Clipper
12/1 Danvilla, 12/1 Royal Diamond, 12/1 Taikoo
12/1 Yemeni Princess, 16/1 Callisto Moon, 20/1 Morar
20/1 Tenessee, 25/1 Raslan.

I am not keen on these 2n Handicaps. I wasnt that keen
on KEYS either. I looked at 4 year olds like him from a
12f maiden and found a modest 1-16 record. The winner
won last time which KEYS failed to do and interesting so
far his Sire has yet to have a winner beyond 12f which is
making me consider his stamina limitations. TAIKOO's
got a very tough absence and may not have the backclass
to overcome that. I see BALTIMORE CLIPPER having
a tough task getting home on this ground. I'd want more
runs for ROYAL DIAMOND and CALLISTO MOON as
one race this year may not be enough. RASLAN may be
best avoided on his current form. YEMENI PRINCESS
makes no appeal as a seasonal debutant mare. I ran the
profile of COSIMO DE MEDICI as a 4yo well beaten
over further last time and found no winners and he has
an unsafe profile for me. Not confident in these races
but I cam down on the side of DANVILLA my choice.




N e w m a r k e t 5.20

4/1 Novellen Lad, 11/2 Judge ´n Jury, 13/2 Fathom Five
13/2 Sutton Veny 7/1 Hazelrigg, 8/1 Baby Strange
14/1 Swiss Franc 16/1 Befortyfour, 16/1 Taajub.

* This is a 5f Handicap for horses rated 0-92
* July has seen 261 similar races run
* SWISS FRANC looks underraced this season.
* I think SUTTON VENY is underraced this season.
* I looked at horses aged 7 or more from 5f races
* Those without a run in 2 weeks struggled
* None had the absence JUDGE ´N JURY has
* None had under 4 runs that season
* FATHOM FIVE fails that
* TAAJUB hasnt done enough this season
* He has also just had a massive downgrade in stable
* BEFORTYFOUR was beaten 10 + lengths over 5f last time
* Unexposed horses doing that were 0-55 and he is weak
*1 NOVELLEN LAD is an exposed 6yo from a 6f race
* I looked at Male horses aged 6 + coming from 6f races
* I looked at those with no Listed or Group form
* Those with 1-2-3 runs this season like him were 0-19
* The only winners had 4 or more runs that season
* I'd still respect him but it raises a doubt in my mind
* So to does a career high mark
* So does a 28 race career and None of these were at 5f

S h o r t l i s t

* HAZELRIGG has a good solid profile
* He isnt the best handicapped in the race
* He is well raced with a recent run and solid statistically
* BABY STRANGE is a 7yo and drops from 6f
* Horses doing that within a week were 5-38
* All 5 winners were beaten lass than 6 lengths last time
* BABY STRANGE was beaten 8.5 lengths
* This issue is whether he did enough last time
* Would he also prefer a 6f race ?
* Given the ground I'd give him the benefit of the doubt

Selection - BABY STRANGE

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