Mathematician 1118



No Official Selection Today

I do have options today. The only thing that
stops me going with a bet is that I wanted to
be with some multiple bets and I'd rather do
those as rarely as possible. I could easily have
each way singles on horses around 7/2 but it's
lazy and I'm them at the mercy of shortening
prices, non runners and non triers so decided
without a clear option to have a no bet day.

I would bet all my options today. I like them
and as much as I can ever feel confident I do.


T o d a y ' s O p t i o n s

I am going to turn down an each way double with
Kentford Grey Lady (12.30) and Galician (4.40)
in the interests of sanity. That could be a bet for
those that like such strategies. That is optional.


Kempton 4.10 MUCKY MOLLY 7/2 Each Way

The frame of the race supports a bet like this but
I do have reasons why she could be worth betting
in a race like this. Not sure whether I have tried
too hard to make her the selection or not and if
I have turned a blind eye to one or two problems
but I feel there's a definate case for her each way.


Kempton 5.40

ART THIEF 7/2 Each Way

FIFTY CENTS 8/1 Saver

I think with some very old horses and unfit horses
and non stayers then it must be ART THIEF's race
and I would be surprised if he didnt go close. I want
a saver for reasons given later on FIFTY CENTS.
What I dont like is advising horses each way when
only 7/2 and when having a saver as well and what
troubles me most is whether I have enough in the
prices to make it a bet I should be going with here.


Kempton 7.40

GOOD AUTHORITY 8/1 Win Bet

LOCKANTANKS 4/1 Saver Bet

I like this bet a lot but its the hardest race to win
of all my options today so there is more risk here
than I'd like. What also bothers me is that there's
probably a better bet here with LOCKANTANKS
each way as I can't find many that can beat him.
I have gone with GOOD AUTHORITY as he has
a better profile and is a better price but I thought
these two horses stood out so dont lose if 1 wins.

* I did think about each way doubles and trebles.

* Muck Molly with Good Authority and Lochantanks

* Art Thief with Good Authority and Lochantanks

* Mucky Molly - Art Thief e/w double looks good

* Mucky Molly - Art Thief with Both 7.40pm bets





M e s s a g e B o a r d

There were one or two technical problems with the
message board in the last couple of days. Mick spent
a lot of time last night fixing these. I am told there
were a few issues that have been resolved so it should
be back to normal. However one casualty of the fix
was the Email alerts to which categories or threads
members are subscribing to. Unfortunately members
who want alerts when a thread or topic is updated do
now have to revisit the settings and choose which of
the categories they want alerts from. Apologies for
that but it will take only seconds to do thankfully.
You will need to navigate to the Customize Settings
page. Scroll down until you see the following option.

"If you wish to receive e-mail when a new thread is
created in a specific category, select categories below"

Then its a matter of just highlighting which threads
or categories you want to be alerted about and click
on customize and we should be back to normal then.




M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

It's mainly a Kempton message today. It is the one
All Weather card today and I've previewed six races
there. There are 3 National Hunt meetings. I said I
had no plans to get dragged into poor Naional Hunt
cards for the sake of it especially at this Stage of the
season. I have found 3 races I liked so I have done
quick previews in the 12.30 12.40 1.25 races. Then
it is a bit of a wait before Kempton starts at 4.10pm.


W e d n e s d a y 's R e v i e w

I decided to go with 4 mentions yesterday not being
able to promote any of them to selections. I looked
at some each way doubles as the way of betting them.
They finished 6th 4th 2nd 2nd. If you staked 6 x £1
each way doubles you would have staked £12 on that
bet and returned a bit better than half that. Not what
I was hoping for but at least it was something and as
Lingfield was quite Spitefull yesterday it could have
been a lot worse. SHOWBOATING was the flop and
didn't show any tactical speed. ARCHIE RICE ran a
really good race and only just missed out on a place
when looking like he would do that. GAZBOOLOU
was the race we went closest in. I have had both the
winner and second the wrong way round but pleased
he placed at a decent price as it enabled us to scrape
something back with TISLAAM placing as well and
landing the place double. Still a losing day but quite
a lot of shock results at Lingfield and it took some
sorting yesterday and it was a fair effort at big odds.

***********************************************
***********************************************

P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



N a t i o n a l H u n t


N e w b u r y 12.30

11/4 Tempest River, 100/30 Kentford Grey Lady
6/1 Miss Milborne, 13/2 Arctic Actress, 7/1 Ballyquin Queen
15/2 Young Mags, 11/1 Penelope Pips, 25/1 Identimin
25/1 Kindly Note, 40/1 First Act.

I don't think there is a Smoking Gun statistic here in
this Maiden hurdle. TEMPEST RIVER the favourite
is trained by Ben Case a very small yard who faces a
few bigger stables today. Nicky Henderson has trained
more winners this Month than Ben Case has done in
5 years. I think this probably is a race to look for an
each way bet against the favourite. My choice would
be KENTFORD GREY LADY. She was reported to
have badly needed her first run this season and I feel
her second run may well have been needed as well so
with two runs behind her she may be able to fend off
a few more of these from bumpers or with just the 1
run this season. I like KENTFORD GREY LADY e/w.


* Tempted by the Each Way double as well

Newbury 12.30 - KENTFORD GREY LADY 3/1
Kempton 4.40 - GALICIAN 11/8




T a u n t o n 12.40

2/1 Dancewiththedevil, 5/2 Kickahead, 11/4 Teshali
4/1 Freddy´s Star, 25/1 Tuskar, 33/1 Hold The Bucks
33/1 Stellar Cause.

This is a selling hurdle. I wanst impressed with a 5yo
TESHALI who comes here well beaten last time out.
It did surprise me but horses coming from handicaps
like DANCEWITHTHEDEVIL underperformed and
none were as old as he was. FREDDY'S STAR comes
here Chasing which contributes to his poor overall
profile. The best runner statistically is KICKAHEAD
and he would be my selection in this Selling race.


U t t o x e t e r 1.25

5/4 Rose Of The Moon, 7/2 Fiveways, 9/2 American Spin
13/2 Camas Bridge, 10/1 Dixie Bull, 12/1 Total Rebellion
25/1 Ballyvoneen, 33/1 Fashion Stakes, 33/1 Mr One Too
40/1 Bach Street Girl, 40/1 Newport Rose, 40/1 Momotaro
40/1 Rumbling Thunder, 50/1 Patricias Pride

This is a 3m Novice Hurdle. Not sure how safe I am
here. I have AMERICAN SPIN with the best profile
but I also like ROSE OF THE MOON as well. I could
easily go with the each way single on American Spin.
His trainer thinks he is fragile and delicate and there
may be a question mark about his reliability. I liked
ROSE OF THE MOON and don't have any worries
about her other than the fact I had a better profile.
Whilst we can't know much about him FIVEWAYS
had a weak profile as an 8 year old coming from a
Bumper last year. Thats not the norm for winners
of these races and CAMAS BRIDGE whilst sure to
improve was beaten quite a long way on his 1st run
of the season. Not much strength in depth here to
worry about. I think its a toss up between the split
stake bet or the each way bet. In the end I felt the
best option is AMERICAN SPIN 5/1 each way.



K e m p t o n 4.10

4/5 Royal Selection, 4/1 Mucky Molly, 8/1 Lovat Lane
11/1 Sid, 14/1 Lady Ellice, 14/1 My Best Man
16/1 Chillie Peppar, 20/1 Grayfriars
25/1 Whats Your Story.

Not much I can say in this all aged maiden over 6f.
None of the horses that you can consider have the
right profile or even an orthodox one. Its probable
that ROYAL SELECTION is the best horse in the
race but she is a short price and I don't want to bet
a filly at a short price when no winners are like her
because she comes down from 8f to 6f. I still think
she may get away with it but I can't bet her at odds
on. In fact there's a case for MUCKY MOLLY as
the each way alternative. There is no doubt she is
easily capable of winning this on her first 3 career
starts. What we have to do is excuse her last three
runs which are not as good. Thats not that difficult
to be honest. When she was hammered at Wolves
she had an excuse. The Vet said after the race she
was lame having received a bump leaving the stalls.
Next time at Redcar wasnt a bad run when you see
she was drawn low in a massive field and the higher
numbers dominated there. Her last run wasnt that
bad as she was caught out wide and that day there
was a very hard pace and the leaders went off too
fast and she may not have been suited by the way
that race was run. Not sure how much I can trust
these excuses but I don't think they are too much
to believe. If you watch MUCKY MOLLY run at
Wolves she shows a tendency to hang right and
doesn't seem totally comfortable with the bends.
There must be a good chance she responds well
to a right handed track like Kempton. Nothing's
safe here but given the choice of taking odds on
about the favourite or betting MUCKY MOLLY
each way I think the best option has to be her.

Selection - MUCKY MOLLY 7/2 Each Way



K e m p t o n 4.40

11/10 Galician, 7/2 Jwala, 15/2 Take A Note
8/1 Boudoir, 11/1 Red Bay, 12/1 Kickingthelilly
20/1 Boots And Spurs, 20/1 Gabbiano
25/1 Johnny Splash, 28/1 Justbookies Dotnet
33/1 Castalian Spring, 50/1 Peters Pleasure.

This is a 2yo Maiden so back into guess mode. No
doubt GALICIAN has shown more than enough to
win a race like this. I would just favour her over a
filly like JWALA well beaten in a Listed Class race
last time and she was 50/1 after all and GALICIAN
has the more orthadox profile. BOUDOIR has got
to be considered with high class connections but I
wouldn't want an unraced filly taking on a decent
type in GALICIAN especially with a run just eight
days ago. Has to be said GALICIAN does look best
placed in an each way double. It is that sort of race
for those that want to do that but for those that do
not like those bets GALICIAN is my selection.

Selection - GALICIAN


K e m p t o n 5.10

4/1 Honourable Knight, 9/2 Famagusta, 6/1 Sail Home
8/1 Lucas Pitt, 8/1 Mister Frosty, 8/1 Saloon, 8/1 Valdan
12/1 El Libertador, 14/1 Cardi King, 20/1 Red Lancer
20/1 Shirataki.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* There are only 61 similar races in November
* LUCAS PITT looks underraced this season
* RED LANCER has problems aged 10 absent 50 days
* EL LIBERTADOR - Hasnt run well enough recently
* I can't match him well beaten from under 10f
* SALOON is 7 and absent 56 days
* I looked at horses aged 6 or more absent a month
* There was a 1-39 record which isnt too good
* That winner had far more backclass than Saloon
* He also had less weight as well
* SALOON may lack the class for that absence
* SHIRATAKI hasnt done enough this year
* He is 3 up in trip but only has 3 runs this year
* He faces a long absence and was well beaten last time
* I can't match him to any winners
* Put off by the fact he has just downgraded stables
* He was also sold very cheaply since his last run
* FAMAGUSTA is a 4yo filly and unsafe
* None like her came from 14f
* She lacks experience and a recent run
* All fillies aged 4 had more experience as well
* SAIL HOME is a 4yo filly as were 5 winners
* None however came from 10f or shorter
* Fillies aged 4 with 13 + runs like her won 2 races
* Both had more backclass and a more recent race
* SAIL HOME isnt as strong as I'd like statistically
* MISTER FROSTY is hard to read from a hurdles race
* He is at least fit and stays and is a positive

S h o r t l i s t

* HONOURABLE KNIGHT has just won a 3yo handicap
* There were 3 year old winners doing that
* None however had more than 9 runs like him
* None won 12f races and they all came up in trip
* HONOURABLE KNIGHT is fine but not quite right
* Not sure he has the improvement many would hope
* Not after 12 runs and no move in distance
* CARDI KING is 3 up in distance with 4 career runs
* Its not too bad a profile and he isnt a negative
* The only winners like him came from 3yo handicaps
* CARDI KING doesnt do that and has to prove stamina
* VALDAN is older than ideal as a 7yo
* He has backclass and a good recent run though
* VALDAN has a nasty 0-23 record right handed
* He's run well here before more than once though
* VALDAN is back with his old trainer now
* This is his 2nd run after the switch
* If that rekindles any enthusiasm he could win

Selection

Not confident here. It is messy. I think the wise
thing to do is the split stake bet. If the favourite
gets place we can't do any damage yet still have
a chance of a decent pay out via this split stake.

Split Stake Bet

VALDAN 7/1 Win Bet
HONOURABLE KNIGHT 10/11 Place Bet




K e m p t o n 5.40

7/2 Colinca´s Lad, 4/1 Apache Kid, 4/1 Art Thief
8/1 Fifty Cents, 8/1 Miss Bounty, 10/1 Croix Rouge
12/1 Now, 12/1 Rose Aurora, 14/1 Bold Adventure
20/1 Princess Runner.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* There are only 61 similar races in November
* APACHE KID looks weak with 1 run this year
* There's 711 Handicaps in November in Class 5-6-7
* Thats 711 Handicaps at every distance
* I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run that season
* There was a weak 1-65 record
* That winner was female and far less exposed
* She also went down in trip not up
* APACHE KID looks a horse I should oppose
* NOW has to go as a mare with 1 run this season
* PRINCESS RUNNER is underraced this season
* I looked at horses aged 6 or more from 10f or shorter
* So far all 40 have lost doing that when aged 6 +
* COLINCA´S LAD is 9 and has to do that
* MISS BOUNTY also fails that as a 6yo
* MISS BOUNTY is a Mare trying to do that
* She's by Bahamian Bounty a sire with little stamina
* His sires runners at 12f and more are 1-71
* MISS BOUNTY probably wont stay
* ROSE AURORA is wrong as a filly with an absence
* She's also vulnerable down from a 2m race
* BOLD ADVENTURE is 7 absent 198 days
* I looked at horses aged 6 or more absent a month
* There was a 1-39 record which isnt too good
* That winner had far more backclass than him
* BOLD ADVENTURE looks wrong
* CROIX ROUGE is 9 older than ideal
* Only 1 winner was aged older than 7
* That winner had far more backclass than him

S h o r t l i s t

* ART THIEF is respected aged 3 with a recent race
* Not many 3yo's win from 12f races though
* None managed it running in the past 2 weeks
* ART THIEF is a little unproven but shortlistable

* FIFTY CENTS offers us a dilemma
* Statistically he is weak beaten 22 lengths 5 days ago
* No horse overcame such a heavy defeat so recently
* He does have an excuse as he went off too fast last time
* He was unable to maintain a suicidal gallop
* If had overcome that he can win

Selection

This is a desperate race. My first though was that
FIFTY CENTS is very unsafe but could easily win
and I see him as a neccesary Saver. ART THIEF
should be hard to kick out of the frame despite a
shaky profile. I think we have room for both of
these options in what does look a scrappy race.

ART THIEF 7/2 Each Way
FIFTY CENTS 8/1 Saver



K e m p t o n 6.10

7/2 Perfect Act, 9/2 Desert Icon, 6/1 Waabel
7/1 Mawjoodah, 7/1 Sarah´s Art, 10/1 Aye Aye Digby
10/1 Lutine Charlie, 10/1 Royal Intruder
14/1 C´mon You Irons, 14/1 Dvinsky
20/1 Memphis Man.

This is a 6f Claimer. There are 29 similar races at this
time of year. PERFECT ACT is the highest rated but
She is absent 244 days. In the 29 races horses absent
12 or more weeks were 0-62 and it is not easy to defy
an absence in these races especially when a Mare. I'm
against C´MON YOU IRONS with another absence as
well. Neither DVINSKY or SARAH´S ART look like
winning at the moment. WAABEL has a weak profile
hammered over 5f last time and he has finished last in
his last 3 runs. I think MEMPHIS MAN probably has
too much to prove.

* LUTINE CHARLIE - Lack of backclass hurts him
* All exposed horses had form in at least Class 3
* Those that didnt had a 0-41 record
* LUTINE CHARLIE fails that and is unsafe
* ROYAL INTRUDER ran last night when 7th
* That recent run is a serious help so he is considered
* Wouldnt surprise me if he managed to place
* AYE AYE DIGBY is shortlistable
* His 38 day absence hurts him a lot though
* MAWJOODAH is risky as a 3yo filly with an absence
* I have found a winner like her so she is respected
* DESERT ICON - Good profile but an unsafe stable

Selection

Best profile is Desert Icon but who in their right
mind wants to bet a David Flood horse. I admit I
am starting to think the favourite may still win it
despite her absence. What would I do if you gave
me a free bet. Maybe MAWJOODAH each way.


K e m p t o n 7.40

7/2 Lockantanks, 6/1 Tadabeer, 7/1 Peponi
8/1 Good Authority, 10/1 Daruband, 10/1 Isingy Red
10/1 Sasheen, 14/1 Caldercruix, 14/1 Mad Ginger Alice
14/1 The Which Doctor, 16/1 Afkar, 16/1 Huzzah
16/1 The Happy Hammer, 33/1 Rezwaan.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-75 rated horses
* There are 140 similar races at this time of year
* REZWAAN is out of form and unlikely to win
* TADABEER loks vulnerable aged 3 with 3 runs
* Especially from a Conditions race and I cant match him
* No winners came from stall 14 this year in a handicap
* MAD GINGER ALICE is a 3yo filly with 3 runs
* No fillies aged 3 won with under 5 runs (0-26)
* ISINGY RED comes from an 8f 3yo handicap
* Horses doing that with 7 or more runs are 1-70
* Male 3 year olds like ISINGY RED doing it are 0-44
* DARUBAND has a weak profile from a claimer
* No 3yo males have won coming from any claimer
* AFKAR is 3 and comes from a maiden
* Those like him beaten in a maiden were 1-50
* That winner had just 3 runs and he has 7 runs
* HUZZAH has been absent 89 days
* Thats a long absence for an exposed 6yo
* Not a negative as he is well treated
* I found 1 similar winner but not for me today
* I have history with the horse but I am not keen today
* The Hills stable have sold him cheaply recently
* First run for a new yard today leaves me cold
* THE HAPPY HAMMER is exposed absent 193 days
* No exposed horses won absent 4 + months
* SASHEEN is an exposed 4yo filly
* Fillies aged 4 that are exposed were 1-36
* That winner had Group Class form
* SASHEEN has limited backclass and looks weak
* PEPONI has a very unorthodox profile
* Very rare for a 5yo to be as lightly raced as he is
* I know there were 51 winners aged 5 or more
* Those that had 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-65
* None had under 9 runs as PEPONI has
* I cant rule him out but no winners were like him
* CALDERCRUIX is 4 and comes from 7f
* I found 1 similar winner but its a shaky profile
* I'd like a couple more run this season
* CALDERCRUIX is overall just about shortlistable
* THE WHICH DOCTOR was well beaten last time
* That makes him statistically weak
* I fancied him a bit last time but he's frustrating
* I see him a dangerous floater but unlikely winner
* LOCKANTANKS is an exposed 4 year old
* He comes from an 8f handicap within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 4 race
* That hurts him but I found 1 similar winner
* LOCKANTANKS is a positive
* GOOD AUTHORITY is 4 and comes from 8f
* I looked at similar horses with 7-12 career starts
* I found 2 winners and I like his profile
* GOOD AUTHORITY is down in class today
* He was beaten just over 3 lengths last time
* That was after being hampered
* What I like about that run is the opposition
* Every single horse in that race was rated 75 +
* Most of them were rated a lot more
* All his rivals in today are rated 75 and Less
* GOOD AUTHORITY looks a horse to be interested in

Selection

GOOD AUTHORITY 8/1 Win Bet
LOCKANTANKS 4/1 Saver Bet

****************************************************
****************************************************