No Strong Bet Today

No Selection Either


Poor cards again today. I have done just the one full
preview and that was at Fontwell in the 3.25 Novice
Handicap Hurdle. I just liked a few angles in the race.

The rest of it is just gentle mini previews in races to
be wary of. No more than window dressing. Most of
the races are non statistical races anyway so keeping
it slow and saving the bullets for better races. I think
we should wait until the storm blows over and we can
start betting again from Friday when there is more to
choose from. I will suggest one Mention today. It's a
bit early to be looking at National Hunt Handicaps so
not sure how confident I should be today but I ran all
profiles in the 3.25pm at Fontwell and suggest a bet.

Fontwell 3.25

BEFORE BRUCE Win Bet 8/1

COOLAGAD WONDER Saver Bet 6/1





M e s s a g e T h o u g h t s

Short message today. In a bit of a storm at the moment
and I have been battening down the hatches as we are in
the middle of a few days of very difficult cards. It was a
tough day again yesterday but that shouldn't surprise us.
You always get several days like this in middle October.

What I don't want to do is linger round wasting time on
races I can not sort. Newmarket is dominated by maiden
races. There is not a handicap on this card aside from a
Nursery. Nothing much I can do there unless I'm taking
pot shots and guesses in maiden races. No other turf to
look at. Kempton tonight is not easy and I think I'd be
better off looking more at the National Hunt today and
mixing things up whilst the flat racing remains so dire.


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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



Newmarket 1.30

It would have to be either DIALA in an each way double
or DIALA to win and something to place. I was not sold
on Fulney. Small stable. Started 100/1 last time and that's
not a great draw so I will guess DIALA to win and have a
split stake place bet on SAFARJAL in what is only a guess.


Newmarket 2.00

I thought ELAAL had a slightly better profile than most
but not keen on the draw and given the frame of the race
I'd consider an each way alternative. OPERA FLUTE is a
possibility but one run from a 6f maiden in the past couple
of weeks resulted in a 0-20 record in all similar races and I would have been happier with a longer absence. In the end decided a split stake bet was preferable. I would have a win bet on PERIPHERY 5/1 and place bet on ELAAL at 4/6.



W o r c e s t e r 2.10

This is a Mares Novice Hurdle. The obvious negatives
were FINAL CAST as 4yo's from Bumpers were 0-17
and PAMPELONNE who ran too badly last time out.
It doesnt help that both are drifting. Its unhelpfull as
there are only a handful of similar races at this time
of year. COMBUSTIBLE LADY is respected with an
average profile but it's no better than that. The strong
profile has to be KENTFORD GREY LADY as horses
aged 5 coming from a Listed Bumper last season had a
strong 4-7 record. I also thought she came out best of
these but you are still relying on her trainer to get her
here at her peak and thats risky. AL SHABABIYA has
a fair profile. So does FAIRVIEW SUE so there is some
strength in depth in this race. FAIRVIEW SUE may be
worth a saver or even a place bet but purely on profiles
I think KENTFORD GREY LADY has the best chance.



F o n t w e l l 2.20

This is a 2m 2f Novice Hurdle and its very messy and
has an unsortable look to it. WELL REGARDED is 6
and comes from a Bumper last year. Similar horses do
win but none had 3 or more runs and he has 4 and that
makes him unmatchable to a winner. Not sure whether
thats relevant or not. EGYPT MILL SPIRIT also has
Bumper form last year and I wasnt that impressed with
him much as he isnt a negative. SANDY´S DOUBLE is
not quite right. Given a choice DON´T LOOK BACH
is the each way option in a race that just looks messy.


Newmarket 3.05

Unraced horses at the head of the market says it all here.
Not too bothered about SILENT MOMENT as an unraced
filly. Hard to know if OPINION did enough last time out.
I would just prefer the unraced UMAYYAD. His trainer is
responsible for a brilliant record in this race. Since 2000 he has a 8-15 record with his unraced horses 6-11 and he seems to save a good 2yo for this so UMAYYAD would
be my guess around 4/1 or better each way.


W o r c e s t e r 3.15

This is a Novice Chase over 2m 7f. It looks a 3 horse race
and I didnt want PHARE ISLE. He is not a negative but so
hard to read falling at the second on his seasonal debut and I just see him as 3rd best. I looked at ALDERTUNE and he had a very nice 2-8 profile and there is an argument to bet him from Paul Nicholls rather than VINCITORE trained by a smaller yard. Purely on profiles I was more impressed that VINCITORE won last time out and all similar 5 year olds in these races doing that with 9-12 career runs without a race in Graded Class before had an impressive W W W record. That 3-3 record tells me VINCITORE should be the bet.



F o n t w e l l 3.25

4/1 Caunay, 5/1 Before Bruce, 6/1 Coolagad Wonder
6/1 Quelqu´un Comme Toi, 8/1 Flowerbud, 9/1 Tecktal
10/1 Bon Spiel, 10/1 Kings Equity, 12/1 Man Of Leisure
20/1 Island News, 25/1 Kilcommon Pride, 25/1 Sulpius.

* This is a 2m Novice Handicap Hurdle for 0-94 rates horses
* There are 89 similar races in October
* I thought it was worth the effort to do this race
* There are a few angles that interested me here
* CAUNAY is 4 and has his seasonal debut
* Horses aged 4 racing first time out are 0-32
* Horses aged 4 absent over a Month are 0-56
* CAUNAY doesnt interest me with those results
* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI is 7 absent 556 days
* He has to overcome that with Topweight
* He has to be respected from the best stable in the race
* I looked at all seasonal debutants aged 7 or more
* There were 7 winners that managed that
* None were absent as long as he is
* None had a large weight though my biggest issue
* Those that had 11st 3lbs or more were 0-28
* I looked at 7yo debutants from Handicap hurdles
* There was a weak 1-35 record with these horses
* That winner had 10st weight 26lbs less than he has
* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI may have too much weight
* That and his absence make me look elsewhere
* MAN OF LEISURE has a similar problem
* He is a 7yo debutant with 11st 8lbs
* With a very inexperienced jockey he is unsafe
* FLOWERBUD is a mare that ran 13 days ago
* I looked at Mares in these 89 races
* Those that ran this season scored badly
* With 4 or more career runs they were 0-99
* FLOWERBUD fails that and is rejected
* KINGS EQUITY also fails that as a mare
* TECKTAL is an 8yo Mare
* No Mares won her age or older
* Mares aged 7 or more had a weak 1-47 record
* Those with 4 or more runs were 0-42
* KILCOMMON PRIDE doesnt offer enough
* SULPIUS doesnt offer enough
* ISLAND NEWS doesnt come out well
* Well beaten in a recent chase he is unsafe
* BON SPIEL is 7 and has a recent run
* I looked at horses aged 7 + running within a month
* None came from Selling races like him
* Most were far lighter raced than he is
* Those with 9-20 career runs were 0-51
* With 13 runs he doesnt conform to any winners
* He was beaten further than any like him anyway
* BON SPIEL left me unimpressed

S h o r t l i s t

* BEFORE BRUCE is 4 and has a recent race
* 4 year olds with 3 + runs that season scored well
* Those with Class 4 form and 5-12 runs were 4-13
* Those that were 1st or 2nd last time were 4-8
* BEFORE BRUCE has a good solid profile

* COOLAGAD WONDER is 6 and has a recent run
* He ran well in a recent Handicap Hurdle
* I found 4 similar winners and liked his profile

Selection

I felt two horses stood out and I wanted the saver

BEFORE BRUCE Win Bet 8/1

COOLAGAD WONDER Saver Bet 6/1



Newmarket 3.40

Another maiden dominated with unraced horses. Division 2
of the 3.05 and John Gosden is the trainer with the brilliant record as described earlier. TOP BILLING has to be one to respect from that stable. Many options none are safe and I came down to TOP BILLING as a win bet with a place bet on YAA SALAM in the hope he has done enough to protect stakes and allow for a more speculative win bet.


Newmarket 4.10

Angles are very sparse in this Conditions race and you can
not take a confident view. SECRECY probably has the best
chance. I wanted something younger and more flashy than
STEVIE THUNDER. I didnt think INLER did enough last
time. FURY has a nasty absence and MANTOBA just one
run this year. Any of these problems may not be problems
I can only assume and my assumption is for SECRECY.


W o r c e s t e r 4.20

This is a Mares Handicap hurdle over 2m 4f. We are in
unsafe territory as there are only 8 similar races during
this time of year. None of these went to a 4yo so there
is an argument to oppose AT PRESENT. There were 2
seasonal debutants winning from Novice hurdles but both
had more experience than ACCORDINGTOEILEEN so
reluctant to go with her. The one statistic that may well
determine if we get this right was that no winners came
from a 2m race. We have DARAZ ROSE, SEEDLESS ,
and MAID OF SILK coming from 2m races. Because I
prefer a recent run and several runs this year and horses
not coming up in trip ILLYSANTACHRISTINA looks
the safest bet to me and she would be my choice here.



Newmarket 4.45

These 8f "Auction" maidens are quite rare and this race is
new at Newmarket. I thought the sensible bet was the split
stake bet yet again. QUIZZED is my guess as the place bet
with HAAFHD HANDSOME the win bet around 5/2.



Newmarket 5.20

This is a 9f Nursery and as we have so few of these races at this time of year and none here I am out of my depth a bit. I can tell you that October Nurserys at 8f 9f 10f show that once raced horses are 0-8 finishing 2 4 4 5 6 6 8 10 which puts me off OPEN WATER and MAIN SEQUENCE both fancied and once raced in this race. I'd avoid those but I'm not pretending I can sort this out. FENNELL BAY would
be my best guess winning last time after two runs.


W o r c e s t e r 5.30

This is a Bumper. Only covering the race as there is
a Marcus Tregonning 3 year old in the races. I looked
at 3 year olds in All aged and Specific Age Bumpers at
all times of the year. Not that many have tried as not
many races allow them to run. Unraced 3yo males had
a 2-34 record so nothing special and ASKER may best
be avoided. I say that partly because M Tregonning is
still waiting for his first National hunt winner and it's
offputting that ASKER has first time blinkers and no
3yo winners wore any headgear. ASKER looks riskier
than I would want and I'd be inclined to avoid him and
go with something each way against him.

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