No Selections Today

No Mentions Today


No question Doncaster got the better of us yesterday so
care is needed today and a much less intense message. It
is important to pick our battles well and as I suspected I
did not do that yesterday in a Cavalier message. Today's
an early message as planned. I just want to run through
a few Doncaster races. Nothing advised as bets. More a
practice message at the end of the week to keep things
ticking over. Hopefully we can return some fire today.



P l a n s T h i s W e e k

I plan to take a couple of days off between Monday and
Wednesday. Not sure which two days yet. I will see what
Redcar offers tomorrow but half the card is maiden races.
There is no Flat Turf Racing on Tuesday and Wednesday
and they could also be options. Not sure yet but two days
will be dropped from the first half of this week. I need to
complete the Aintree Statistics and Grand National work
as it will soon be upon us and this is the only time I can
squeeze that in. I will probably do a message next Sunday
as well. Not likely to miss much so 2 of the next 3 days
will be No message days and by Thursdays we will have
full Aintree stats in every race for the very first time.


F r i d a y s R e v i e w

It was never going to be a day a winner was certain and
it was as tough out there as it usually is at this meeting.
Winners at 50/1 12/1 25/1 14/1 33/1 went in and there
was little hope of getting a lot right. We had 2 Losing
bets. It probably was a bit self indulgent but that is not
something you will see me do often and I certainly do
not intend to have many bets in races like that and on
cards like that. At Kempton we had a good winner and
that just did enough to get that part of the message in
profit. The Doncaster business was far less rewarding.
Reve de nuit finished in midfield and never looked one
that was likely to win. At the start of the 6.05pm the
bets hit the front and I thought I might have been on
an interesting bet but it came to nothing. Good to get
the Flat back but no danger of putting it on a pedestal
and in future days I plan to be a lot more risk averse.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


D o n c a s t e r 1.35

6/1 Jeer, 6/1 Kodicil, 8/1 Lil Ella, 8/1 Maslak
10/1 Arizona John, 10/1 Edgeworth, 10/1 White Diamond
10/1 Zaplamation, 16/1 Gallantry, 16/1 Hurakan
16/1 Ladies Best, 16/1 Pitkin, 16/1 Sedgwick
20/1 Angelena Ballerina, 20/1 Merrjanah, Northern Spy
20/1 Stadium Of Light.

No insight in this 12f Amateur race . Mainly because there
is only one similar race in March and April - last years race and there is a confusing draw bias. I dont think I have angles good enough to open this up. I wouldnt have bet Lil Ella as a mare with an absence. The only winner of this race last year did have two runs that callender year and I would predict the winner does have a run this year. You tend to see that with Amateur races and the fitter horses often win as the jockeys don't have as much ability as professionals to get that extra out of a horse. That said I have no proof of that as we dont have any similar races in March or April. I wanted statistics I havent got for other things such as how horses coming up from shorter trips like Edgeworth get on. I don't see that I have enough evidence here. A Lack of a run would put me off Sedgwick and Zaplamation. It was harder to rule out the
absent KODICIL as he has the best jockey but I think that
should be done with several having recent runs. PITKIN is
hard to like up in distance with stamina doubts. There are
one or two things I dont like with WHITE DIAMOND so
leaving her off the shortlist which stands at 4 horses here.

JEER - EDGEWORTH -ARIZONA JOHN - MASLAK

No idea which of these will prove best or if they will also
provide the winner. My thoughts with ARIZONA JOHN
are that the other three have at least 2 more runs during
2012 and his record suggests he may want the same. The
dilemma with EDGEWORTH is stamina concerms. The
issue with MASLAK trust and whether he should be relied
on. I think the safest choice is JEER who won the race in
2001 and has a similar preparaion. Its only a guess as the
evidence isnt there but JEER each way is my selection.





D o n c a s t e r 2.10

9/4 Mutafaakir, 3/1 Sequoia, 7/2 Highland Duke
5/1 Born To Surprise, 16/1 Nordic Quest, 25/1 Malingering
25/1 Star Date, 50/1 Common Cents, 50/1 Penang Pegasus
50/1 Take Two, 100/1 Chester Aristocrat, 100/1 Icewan
100/1 So Cheeky, 100/1 Vite.

Not much point doing the Doncaster 2.10 race really as it's
a maiden race full of unraced horses. The recent draw bias
in races with 10-14 runners here suggests stalls 1-2-3
should be avoided but that doesnt help. The Gosden and Hills
stable do have a good record in this race and have leading
runners this year. I wonder if there is a flaw with SEQUOIA.
He has been off over 7 months. I looked at all similar races
for all horses who come from 2yo Maidens when last racing
before August during their 2yo season. In other words more
than 7 months beforehand. Not many winners defied that
absence and few still when having more than one previous
run and none did that from 6f maidens. That sounds messy
and it may be the wrong approach to take but I see SEQUOIA
as unsafe here. As MUTAFAAKIR is unraced he is impossible
to judge here. BORN TO SURPRISE is a well backed Michael
Bell horse. I see him as probably the most likely winner. He
was reported to have needed his run last year and was always
a 3yo rather than a 2yo prospect and BORN TO SURPRISE
gets the vote.




D o n c a s t e r 2.45

13/2 Sound Amigo, 7/1 Aerodynamic, 7/1 Ellie In The Pink
10/1 Celtic Sultan, 10/1 Silvery Moon, 10/1 Viva Ronaldo
12/1 Barkston Ash, 12/1 Bawaardi, 14/1 Jungle Bay
14/1 Musnad, 16/1 Al Muheer, 16/1 Karaka Jack
16/1 Little Black Book, 20/1 Count Bertoni, 20/1 Oratory
20/1 Thunderball, 20/1 Zacynthus, 25/1 Amazing Amoray
25/1 Jalors, 25/1 Polish World, 25/1 Rio Cobolo
25/1 Sonning Rose.

I think this is too difficult. I feel Jungle Bay is impossible to
rate accurately. I have a confusing draw bias. The draw in
similar races has seen winners from high stalls but those
drawn 17 or more struggled a little and the higher the draw
the more I'd worry. There are not enough past renewals of
this race to get a confident feel about. Its complicated too
by Karaka Jack and Silvery Moon from stables that don't
have good records with first time out turf horses. I'm not
able to match Aerodynamic or Zacynthus to winners with
both coming from 10f races. The previous three winners of
this were all first time out 4 year olds so that has got to
make LITTLE BLACK BOOK interesting. I'd shortlist him.
I would want VIVA RONALDO on my side and also ELLIE
IN THE PINK who just scraped on there. I dont feel I've a
good chance of getting this sorted so I'm going to leave
this alone and move on as it has beaten me.


D o n c a s t e r 3.20

7/1 Desert Law, 8/1 Marine Commando, 10/1 Docofthebay
10/1 King Of Jazz, 12/1 Nasri, 12/1 Swilly Ferry
14/1 Confessional, 14/1 Wildcat Wizard, 16/1 Elusive Prince
16/1 Johannes, 20/1 Advanced, 20/1 Ancient Cross
20/1 Crown Choice, 25/1 Colonel Mak, 25/1 Damika
25/1 El Viento, 25/1 Fitz Flyer, 25/1 Joe Packet
33/1 Imperial Djay, 33/1 No Hubris, 33/1 Star Rover
50/1 Sunraider.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* The race has changed and upgraded a few years ago
* I looked at this and other similar Class 2 races
* These are the angles I think are most relevant
* Horses with 1 run this season struggled
* None have won this race
* CROWN CHOICE has one run this year
* Not ideal and none have won this yet
* You want a horse aged 4-5-6
* Horses aged 7 or more struggle especially debutants
* The following horses are too old with long absences
* ANCIENT CROSS - ADVANCED
* IMPERIAL DJAY - JOHANNES -DAMIKA
* JOE PACKET - I feel the absence and weight harm him
* SUNRAIDER - Unsafe with a recent stable downgrade
* Horses absent 7 + months struggle when aged 6 +
* WILDCAT WIZARD - FITZ FLYER fail that
* CONFESSIONAL - Unsafe from 5f and not for me
* I dont see his trainer getting him fit for a career high mark
* EL VIENTO - First time out 4yo always worth a look
* I dont see him as the right type of 4yo to win first time
* Not a negative and too big at 50/1 but has flaws
* ELUSIVE PRINCE has a similar profile
* He is not a negative but he isnt the ideal 4yo debutant
* He's won 3 times already leaving a tough handicap mark
* No past winner of this had Group Class for before
* The following horses all fail that statistic
* COLONEL MAK - DESERT LAW - NASRI
* DOCOFTHEBAY - MARINE COMMANDO
* NO HUBRIS - STAR ROVER -SWILLY FERRY
* I wouldnt see that as a strong statistic though
* There are horses with Group form winning other races
* I would be prepared to overlook that in a horses profile
* SWILLY FERRY would not be my choice though
* Not keen on Stall 22 here in any race
* Not keen on his trainers first time out record
* MARINE COMMANDO - I can forgive him that
* I had him as a negative so many times last year
* Late season as a 3yo against older horses it was tough
* He ran with credit many times and is proven at 6f here
* He is quirky though and I cant match him to any winners
* My Gut feeling is he might not be here to win
* He could land a big handicap this year
* Not sure they would blow that by winning this off 92
* MARINE COMMANDO - I think he will have other days

Shortlist

* KING OF JAZZ - 4yo debutant with strong claims
* His stable won this last year with an identical type
* That horse also won from the same draw
* Dangers will be Nasri - Desert Law and Crown Counsel
* 3 of the last 4 winners were first time out 4yo's
* KING OF JAZZ has the best profile in my view




D o n c a s t e r 4.30

7/4 King Of Wands, 5/2 Eternal Heart, 4/1 Junoob
5/1 Tappanappa, 14/1 Hawk Mountain, 16/1 Just Lille

Nothing much I can do with the Doncaster Shield this year
with KING OF WANDS and ETERNAL HEART easily the
best horses but having long absences. This race usually
goes to a first time out winner. I dont see TAPPANAPPA good
enough from a Class 4 handicap and JUNOOB may also be
just short of quality. It probably is a toss up between the 2
class horses. Statistically you can argue that with a shorter
absence that ETERNAL HEART has the advantage when
all past debutant winners were aged 4 or 5 but thats only a
superficial angle and its impossible to be confident here. I
will suggest a Place bet on ETERNAL HEART at evens +



D o n c a s t e r 5.05

5/2 Kingsdesire, 3/1 Attenborough, 11/2 Modernism
15/2 Montaser, 17/2 Ex Oriente, 9/1 Hallmark Star
11/1 Goldoni, 14/1 Mcvicar, 14/1 The Blue Banana
25/1 Indepub, 50/1 Grand Gold.

This race is dominated by once raced horses. This handicap
is for 3 year olds over 10f. Horses that had one race have
a great record so no doubts about inexperience here. Its a
little more complicated though. The seasonal debutant horses
that had 1 previous race had a good 3-6 record but they won
with 8st 10lbs or less and the only horses carrying more than
that weight lost. Today KINGSDESIRE and ATTENBOROUGH
have good profiles as once raced horses but they do have a bit
more weight than all similar winners. MODERNISM has one race
as well but he ran this season. He is fine and that's the same profile
as Barbican who won this race last year. I thought MONTASER
was a bit unorthodox as all Nursery winners had more runs. The
only horses winning from 3yo maidens ran within a month and
EX ORIENTE didnt and I see him as unsafe as well. HALLMARK
STAR is unsafe as no winners came from Auction maidens.
KINGSDESIRE is also questionable on that statistic as well
and with a weight higher than all similar once raced horses
carried I would be against him now. These races show that you
need to ignore horses that dropped in Class. No 3yo handicap
like this in many years went to horses from Class 2 races or
a Listed or Group race. GOLDONI and MONTASER fails that
and do not make the list. I think the most likely winner must
be of the once raced horses and I only like two horses here.

S h o r t l i s t


* ATTENBOROUGH - Like him but I'd like less weight
* MODERNISM - Quite possibly the value in the race

Rather than go with MODERNISM each way I think we
should have a split stake bet as ATTENBOROUGH has
pretensions to much better things and I shouldnt be too
hung up about his weight as its only a few lbs higher than
ideal. He also has a Group 1 entry unlike Modernism and
his debut was on a better track. I think he may shade this.

Selection

Split Stake Bet

ATTENBOROUGH Win Bet 13/8
MODERNISM Place Bet 11/10




D o n c a s t e r 5.35

15/2 Apollo D´negro, 9/1 Greyfriarschorista
10/1 George Benjamin, 11/1 April Fool, 11/1 Caldercruix
11/1 George Baker, 11/1 Sam Nombulist, 12/1 Fluctuation
12/1 Global Village, 12/1 Layla´s Hero, 12/1 Nezami
12/1 Rigolleto, 12/1 Switchback, 14/1 Beckermet
14/1 Illustrious Prince, 16/1 Azrael, 16/1 Defence Council
16/1 Silverware, 20/1 Collateral Damage, 20/1 Mujaadel
25/1 Roninski, 40/1 Gorgeous Goblin.

This is division 2 of the 7f handicap run at 2.45pm and it
is also very messy. I said earlier there was a confusing draw
bias. If you go back to 2008 and look at all Doncaster 7f
handicaps with 13 or more runners you find there are 34
of these races. Horses drawn 16 or more are just 1-64 and
thats a worry for the very high draws. I see BECKERMET
as a negative first time out aged 10. LAYLA´S HERO has
an impossible draw and GEORGE BAKER also looks hard
to fancy draw so high. I felt CALDERCRUIX was unsafe
as no winners of a similar race won a 6f race that season.
I cant find a winner like GREYFRIARSCHORISTA from
either winning of placing in a 9f race or from any selling
race and he looks unsafe. COLLATERAL DAMAGE has
to be overlooked as a 9yo debutant. AZRAEL should not
defy that weight. GEORGE BENJAMIN and MUJAADEL
dont feel safe enough first time out from Dandy Nicholls.
SWITCHBACK and APOLLO D´NEGRO fall short from
a 3yo handicap. GLOBAL VILLAGE doesnt offer enough.

* RONINSKI - First time out 4yo needs respecting
* I just wonder why he has downgraded stables recently
* NEZAMI - I would shortlist him
* FLUCTUATION - Shortlistable but I'd like more backclass
* RIGOLLETO _ Respected as 4yo first time out
* None like him dropped in distance though
* DEFENCE COUNCIL - Another good profile
* SAM NOMBULIST - Just gets on the shortlist
* APRIL FOOL - I thought he was interesting

I thought this was too difficult and too many horses are
on the shortlist. I'm Taking a chance with APRIL FOOL.
I would see APRIL FOOL as a decent positive with such
a recent race. He may be 8 but he ran well last time only
2 days ago. He would be close to the top of my list but I
would have prefered some good track form from him and
I am also a bit worried about his record in big fields. That
said his recent run helps and I will give him the vote much
as I could have quite happily gone with any of 7 options.

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