This is a second message today. It is the Analysis for the
Grand National. As I said in the first message its only that and there are no confirmed selections today. I will sort it out tomorrow once the picture is a lot clearer.



John Smith's Grand National Chase
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+) 4m4f

7/1 Synchronised, 10/1 Junior, 10/1 West End Rocker
10/1 Giles Cross, 12/1 BallaBriggs, 12/1 Chicago Grey
12/1 On His Own, 12/1 Cappa Bleu, 14/1 Seabass, Killyglen
16/1 Shakalakaboomboom, 16/1 Treacle 16/1 Sunnyhillboy
16/1 Becauseicouldntsee 20/1 According To Pete
20/1 Organisedconfusion, 25/1 Neptune Collonges,
25/1 Calgary Bay, 25/1 Planet of Sound, 25/1 Always Right
25/1 The Midnight Club, 33/1 Weird Al, 33/1 Alfa Beat
33/1 Black Apalachi, 33/1 Rare Bob, 33/1 Mon Mome
33/1 Quiscover Fontaine, State of Play, 50/1 Deep Purple
50/1 Tatenen, 50/1 Arbor Supreme, 50/1 Midnight Haze
50/1 Vic Venturi, 50/1 Viking Blond, Hello Bud, Tharawaat
66/1 Swing Bill, 66/1 Postmaster, 66/1 In Compliance
66/1 Any Currency, 100/1 Neptune Equester
100/1 Our Island, 100/1 Abbeybraney, 100/1 Smoking Aces


The Grand National changes every year as do the statistics bit by bit to accomodate the recent history. This year the Fences are again different. Some are slightly lower and landings raised in places as it slowly becomes an easier race. That doesnt help us as the more testing and unique the race the better stats work.

* I think we should mainly ignore the weight statistics
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Horses with 11st 6lbs have struggled overall
* Only Red Rum had won with more weight in recent years
* I would not get too hung up with weight though
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L'Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more won in 1965 1957 1954 1950
* I wont be ruling any horse out only on their weight

* It is a well known fact 7 year olds do badly
* It is now 72 years since one won and they are hard to bet
* ORGANISEDCONFUSION has to go as a 7 year old
* He is not 7 year as he doesnt become 7 until next month
* With just 3 runs this year it defies sense to bet him
* I am opposing these other 7 year olds
* VIKING BLOND - OUR ISLAND - THARAWAAT
* On the other end of the scale avoid teenagers
* HELLO BUD is surely too old as a 14yo


* Horses aged 8 do not do as well as many think
* Only 3 of the last 36 winners were 8 year olds
* Only 1 of the last 18 winners were 8 year olds
* If betting an 8yo make sure it is at least an 8yo
* If Foaled after the day of this race they are not
* Those foaled in Mid april and beyond are not yet 8
* Bindaree - Party Politics - Corbiere -the last 8yo winners
* They were all foaled early in the year
* They were all aged 8 and a few months
* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal
* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8
* They are just 7 and a few months old
* ON HIS OWN wasnt foaled until mid July
* That makes him only 7 and three quarters
* He is 6 months younger than most 8yo winners were
* He also has less Chasing experience than any winner
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE is 2 months short of being 8
* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM is a May 28th foal
* He wont be an 8yo for another 6 weeks
* He is short on Chasing experience and runs this year
* ALFA BEAT is not quite 8 years old yet
* TATENEN is one week short of his 8th birthday
* SMOKING ACES is also short of his 8th birthday



* Exposed horses struggle with few runs that season
* By exposed I mean those with 21 + National Hunt runs
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that season struggled
* They do in all Long distance Handicap Chases in April
* They have a dreadful record in all similar races
* Grey Abbey (Ayr 2004) had 36 runs and 3 that year
* Ballabriggs (Aintree 2011) had 21 runs and 3 that year
* I cant find any more exposed horses so underraced
* The more runs a horse has over 21
* The more runs he needs that season
* Be prepare to be lenient if a horse is close to passing it

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
* You can see None have won with 0-1-2 runs that year
* It is 4m 4f and these types just dont seem fit enough
* I would be keen to opposed all horses with 1-2 runs


* STATE OF PLAY is 12 and hasnt run in 371 days
* He heads my list of horses that are underraced this year
* BALLABRIGGS only has 1 run this season
* With 11st 9lbs it looks a horrendous ordeal for him
* BLACK APALACHI is 13 and has just 1 run this year
* Only 2 Teenagers have won and none since 1923
* None have placed since 1969 and he surely wont win
* DEEP PURPLE has one full race and half a race
* He has under 2 runs this year when an exposed 11yo
* I see him a extremely underraced this season
* JUNIOR has ran just twice this season not a good sign
* He has had fewer chase starts than all past winners
* I see him underraced this year and unsafe
* He started racing on the Flat and few National winners do
* His Sire hasnt bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet
* PLANET OF SOUND has just 2 runs this season
* He is an exposed 10yo and I would want more runs
* WEST END ROCKER - He has only had 2 runs this year
* One of those was when he pulled up
* ARBOR SUPREME has similar problems
* Just 2 runs this year and a massive absence
* He has a longer absence than any winner in decades
* ON HIS OWN discussed earlier is also underraced
* IN COMPLIANCE is underraced this season
* MIDNIGHT HAZE is also underraced

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 20 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* In fact every winner since 1981 ran within 50 days
* The last that did not was Aldaniti back in 1981
* I don't want a horse absent much more than 60 days
* The last 21 winners were absent this many days
* 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25
* 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had these absence
* 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23
* 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 17 of the past 21 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

* I think STATE OF PLAY is absent too long
* WEST END ROCKER - ARBOR SUPREME are as well
* The following are absent longer than ideal
* CALGARY BAY has been absent 77 days
* CALGARY BAY doesnt appeal much
* Not keen on his Track form either
* ON HIS OWN has been absent 79 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent 77 days


* Class is important in a National Winner
* 10 of the last 11 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* He won in Class 2 races but hadnt been tested in higher
* I'd argue he should be seen as a Graded winer
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Listed or Graded win
* 20 of the last 21 winners raced in Graded Class before
* The exception was again Ballabriggs (2011)
* The vast majority of the seconds also had Graded Form
* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
* Exposed horses should really have past Graded Form
* Ballabriggs wouldnt have been exposed with just 1 less run
* One past race he didnt jump past the first fence
* He had really only had 20 career starts
* I would much prefer a horse with Graded Class form

* I'd argue the following horses lack the required class
* POSTMASTER - MIDNIGHT HAZE - SMOKIN ACES

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 21 winners had the following Chase runs
* 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14
* 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 Chase runs and two more had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winner
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20
* 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I'd be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts
* 8 of the last 11 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase starts


* I'd argue the following horses lack the right chase form
* CAPPA BLUE only has 6 Chase runs and fell in one of those
* That's at least 3 less than every past winner
* JUNIOR has fewer chase starts than any recent winner
* SYNCHRONISED would be the joint least experienced chaser
* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM also has the minimum
* PEARLYSTEPS would be the joint least experienced chaser
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE only has 7 Chase starts
* OUR ISLAND only has 7 Chase starts
* VIKING BLOND only has 5 Chase runs


* The following horses look to be too risky
* NEPTUNE EQUESTER - Lacks the class and stamina
* ABBEYBRANEY looks out of his depth
* VIC VENTURI wont defy 62 days off as a 12yo
* SWING BILL wont get the trip
* MON MOME - I find it so hard to fancy him
* He is 12 and hasnt shown nearly enough this year
* WEIRD AL - If he ran his race he'd go close
* He surely is not man enough for this race
* SEABASS has a very unorthodox profile
* I hate the fact he comes from a 2m Chase
* Stamina must be a problem for him as well
* He hasnt won over 3m before under rules
* His Sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet
* His sires record in Class 2 and higher is telling
* He hasnt had a winner in that class beyond 3m 2f
* Ruby Walsh has also turned the ride down
* SEABASS does not look safe enough


* TREACLE is an exposed 11yo
* Two of the last 19 winners could say the same
* Passes most angles he has to be considered
* What worries me most is his 146 handicap mark
* Seems harsh for a horse thats won only off 122 before
* Not overkeen on his 62 day absence either
* Thats longer than any winner since 1991
* Not sure he has the class to defy that absence and rating

* There were 5 winners coming from Cheltenham
* Miinnehoma 1994 came from the Gold Cup
* Rough Quest 1996 came from the Gold Cup
* Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)
* Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race
* Don't Push it 2010 came from the Pertemps H'Cap Hurdle
* No winners came from Cheltenham Aged 9


* SUNNYHILLBOY - Not convinced he is the right type
* We know no 9yo came from Cheltenham and won this
* No Cheltenham Festival winners have won here in decades
* None have got within 28 lengths of the winner
* SUNNYHILLBOY is also a small horse not ideal here
* Do we really want a Cheltenham festival winner ?

* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE ran at Cheltenham
* He ran well and was a good 2nd in the Kim Muir
* No 9 year olds won coming from Cheltenham
* It worries me has had won just 1 Chase race
* That was in a Beginners Chase back in 2010
* The last 19 winners had 3-7 Chase wins before
* He fell at the second fence in last years race
* He has now fallen in 3 of his 11 Chase races
* The last 12 winners all had a better completion record
* He hasnt won at 3 Miles yet but that doesnt worry me
* Overall I feel he has too many weaknesses

* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is an exposed 11yo
* I'd like a couple more runs this year
* I wasnt convinced he would get the trip either
* Not sure he has the legs especially with 11st 6lbs

* RARE BOB - Has a good old fashioned profile
* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically
* His jumping here would be one concern
* The only time he fell before was at Aintree
* His only other race here was not without mistakes
* He will be vulnerable to improvers as well

* His profile demands he is respected
* My concerns is he may be too old fashioned
* Horses like him dont seem to win the race these days
* There must also be a stamina doubt
* The furthest he has raced has been 3m 5f
* After that race his trainer said he didnt stay

* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB was favourite last year
* He had an awful profile so did well to finish 6th
* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB is 11 years old
* He was brought down at the 4th on his seasonal debut
* He has really only had 3 full runs this season
* Thats a bit short for an 11yo and it worries me
* He fails a few minor statistics I have
* The last 19 winners all had more Chase wins than him
* They also all had more Handicap Chase experience too
* I Could turn a blind eye to those statistics
* He has won 5 times under rules all on right handed tracks

* Fair to say his hardest races were on left handed tracks
* Its another niggling doubt though
* Interesting runner and if he wins it is explainable
* I'd have prefered another run this year and more promise

* SYNCHRONISED has just won the Gold Cup
* This will take a better performance should he win
* His last run may have taken too much from him
* Horses aged 9 like him coming from Cheltenham struggled
* He has to carry a big weight with only 9 Chase starts
* If winning he would be the joint least experienced chaser
* SYNCHRONISED - I suspect he has too much against him
* I certainly wouldnt make him a negative
* The weight in the ground after a hard race is a worry
* There is a big case for him being a Saver in my view

* GILES CROSS - I see him as an overall positive
* The ground has come right and he looks an improver
* There are a few reservations I have about him
* I would like another run or two this year

* I wouldnt be certain he would get the trip either
* The last half mile could be quite a test for him
* Will he cope with the stamina doubt and 3 runs this year
* Those 3 runs were all hard races as well
* No surprise if he won but I am not sold on him

* CAPPA BLUE - has some minor issues but one serious flaw
* The least experienced chaser had ran in 9 previous chases
* CAPPA BLUE has just 6 and Fell -Pulled up in 2 of those
* That said Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
* CAPPA BLUE has to be considered because of that

* CHICAGO GREY - Plenty of positives in his profile
* Well raced this year and ticks a lot of boxes
* I dont like the fact he comes from a 2m 4f Chase
* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is not good
* I dont like the fact he comes from a Grade 2 Chase either
* Other than that there is a lot to like
* His trainer has a National Pedigree
* CHICAGO GREY also looks laid out for the race
* He certainly has the class and he is a big positive
* Reservations though in a number of areas
* He is lacking the Handicap Chase experience too

* KILLYGLEN - Has a good old fashioned profile
* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically
* Maybe the type that used to win this race but no more
* It bothers me has finished in only 9 of his 14 chase starts
* It bothers me his form at 3m 3f and more is PU PU PU
* It bothers me he was 66/1 in last years race
* He hasnt always been happy in a big field as well
* Bothers me he hasnt won a handicap chase before
* All that aisde he sails through my angles
* Many trends observers have also come round to him
* Shortlisted but I have listed plenty of shortcomings



* ACCORDING TO PETE is an exposed 11yo
* Well raced this year there is a lot to like
* He is consistent and not badly treated at all
* He has never fallen in 14 Chase starts
* There are some problems. May like it softer
* He is not a big horse either and I dont like that
* He jumps well though and I see a strong runner here

* ALWAYS RIGHT has 11 runs all over fences
* This is quite a classy horse with tons of ability
* Obviously his PU PU form recent isnt easy on the eye
* He has had a wind operation to cure a problem causing it
* That may or may not work but the price compensates
* He is lightly raced yet has more than enough Chase runs
* That earns him a lot of respect
* At the prices he is one of the most interesting

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