No Selection Today

1 Mention Today

Redcar 4.35

KALK BAY 4/1

Win Bet


T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

Only a handful of previews today if ignorining the short
one for Frankel there are four races I thought I could be
competetive in. Left the billious ones at the end of the
card as they are too cruel and money wasting exercises.

I have two options today. Tough races and they bring us
some dilemma's as ususl. I like KALK BAY a lot but this
is a Mick Easterby horse and I have to trust that and he
has to show he still has the ability he had last year. Last
time out he showed he was coming back and now fit this
year there wont be many horses that can beat him if he
is on song. I have spent many hours on the 3.45 race at
Goodwood. Happy I am 100 % accurate with what you
have needed to win this race but there are no races like
this elsewhere so I havent had a chance to cross check
any angles. Definately a race I can have a bet in today.
I could easily have gone with the wrong race today and
thats why I have decided to suggest we bet both options.


Goodwood 3.45

TRADER JACK 16/1 Win Bet

HANDSOME MAN 8/1 Win Bet


Redcar 4.35

KALK BAY 4/1

Win Bet


T u e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

I have seen easier opening days at Goodwood and it
was never going to be a message packed with winners.
Overall it wasnt far off a score draw. We managed a
winner in Noble Mission and my best bet was an each
way bet on Hototo with a saver and he placed saving
the stakes. I got plenty wrong but I defy anyone not
to do the same on a card like it and overall we got on
the scoresheet and probably came away with a draw.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


G o o d w o o d 2.00

7/1 Romeo Montague, 8/1 Cape Express, 9/1 Seaside Sizzler
10/1 Orsippus, 12/1 Beyond, 12/1 Nafaath, 12/1 Veiled
14/1 Cloudy Spirit, 14/1 Gordonsville, 14/1 Saborido
14/1 Wild Desert, 16/1 Defence Of Duress, Hurricane Higgins
16/1 Mica Mika, 16/1 Never Can Tell, 16/1 Trovare
20/1 Sentry Duty, 28/1 Font, 33/1 Swingkeel, 50/1 Akbabend.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap for 0-95 rated horses
* It's the only race of it's type in July or August
* What we need here is a well raced horse this year
* I looked at the number of runs winners had this year
* Since January 1st they had 6 4 8 5 6 5 5 5 7 5 7 7 4 runs
* Since Match 1st they had 5 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 7 5 7 7 4 runs
* The following horses look underraced to me
* SWINGKEEL - NEVER CAN TELL
* SENTRY DUTY is underraced as a 10yo
* NAFAATH only has 2 runs this season
* Not convinced about him and there's a small stamina doubt
* SEASIDE SIZZLER has ran just twice this year
* He was runner up last year but had 4 prep runs
* This year with two I think he should fall short
* BEYOND is out as a seasonal debutant
* All 22 past winners of this ran within 7 weeks
* He may pop up but he is unorthodox really
* He is also ridden by a 7lbs claimer
* Horses with riders who claim in this race are 0-48
* BEYOND doesnt look a safe risk to me
* VEILED can be questioned on her fitness
* Not only is she a mare absent 43 days
* She's a mare with just 1 run since last April
* She's not well handicapped either
* GORDONSVILLE is technically underraced this year
* Especially as a 9yo with just 3 runs this year
* 24 renewals and horses aged 8 or more were 0-38
* GORDONSVILLE is older than ideal and comes from 14f
* Very few past winners cae from 14f like him
* Those that did had at least 5 runs that year
* They were also younger and unexposed unlike him
* AKBABEND has to go with 1 run this season
* FONT has to go aged 9 absent 371 days
* CLOUDY SPIRIT is a 7yo mare with an absence
* That and a poor last run damages her profile
* SABORIDO is another horse absent a month
* Not a good profile and his backclass worries me
* Only 1 exposed horses won this without Class 2 form
* That horse was much younger and had much less weight
* He's never in this class or from his rating before
* WILD DESERT is an exposed 7yo and these are 1-40
* His wins are in lower grade and there are stamina doubts
* HURRICANE HIGGINS is 4 and comes from 12f
* Worries me he is going up 9f in distance
* Only 1 past winner came from 12f and he won last time
* HURRICANE HIGGINS didnt and has a tough weight
* His sire hasnt had a 2m winner yet and this is 2m 5f
* HURRICANE HIGGINS looks unsafe
* MICA MIKA - No major issues with his profile
* He isnt too far away from the 2003 winner
* Has to prove he stays though
* His sire has yet to breed a winner beyond 2m 1f

* I dont see much stamina in his pedigree
* MICA MIKA also has a career high mark
* TROVARE was beaten 16 lengths in last years race
* His Sire hasnt had a winner beyond 2m yet
* Every chance he doesnt stay this far
* To bet him I have to trust stamina
* I dont want to do that from a yard that underachieve
* DEFENCE OF DURESS is an unexposed 4yo
* Hard to rate as all 3 runs this year over hurdles
* Should be well treated but stamina isnt proven
* I dont see enough positives with him
* ROMEO MONTAGUE is interesting
* He is 4 and won last time 12 days ago
* I cant find a winner like him though
* The last time out 4yo winners were less exposed
* More exposed often means less improvement
* It hangs a cloud of doubt over his profile
* Statistically it means I cant match him to a winner

S h o r t l i s t


* ORSIPPUS is a 6 year old
* Found 3 winners his age and older
* Two came from better class races
* I dont have a huge problem with him
* He does need to improve though from a small yard

* CAPE EXPRESS - Hard to rate from a Hurdles race
* The 2004 and 2010 winners came from Hurdles though
* Hard to know if he has the experience on the flat
* With an easy recent win he must be close to 1st choice


Selection

CAPE EXPRESS 7/1 Win Bet
ORSIPPUS 10/1 Saver





G o o d w o o d 2.35

5/2 Ghurair, 7/2 Olympic Glory, 11/2 Birdman, 6/1 Maxentius
6/1 Tha´ir, 11/1 Artigiano, 14/1 Whipper´s Boy
25/1 Chilworth Icon 40/1 Luhaif, 40/1 Operation Chariot.

The Vintage Stakes isnt a great trends race and any angles
here are a bit luke warm. I suppose the main statistic here
is that since 1990 horses running 4 or more times before
have a 0-31 record and so far haven't recorded a win. It's
an issue for BIRDMAN and ARTIGIANO from the front
of the market. Both CHILWORTH ICON and LUHAIF
are overraced as well. OPERATION CHARIOT has little
to offer. WHIPPER´S BOY is not a negative but with 2
runs from a maiden there are better profiles. THA´IR is
similar to 1 winner years ago and I'd have shortlisted him
had there not already been 3 superior profiles in the race.

S h o r t l i s t

* OLYMPIC GLORY has a good profile
* He comes from the Superlative Stakes after 3 runs
* The 2010 and 2011 winners had that profile
* The 2010 winner won that race just as he does
* That tells me the penalty he earnt can be done

* MAXENTIUS has a good profile
* He comes from the Superlative Stakes after 3 runs
* The 2010 and 2011 winners had that profile

* GHURAIR has a good profile
* Male horses winning 7f maidens last time
* Coming from a Grade 1 track
* Starting favourite or 2nd favourite last time
* Only one career start
* 8 horses had that profile and 5 won
* They finished W 7 W 2 W 2 W

Selection

It's a difficut choice from 3 horses. I say that because these all have one problem for me. With GHURAIR its the fact that although once raced maiden winners are strong it was some years ago since one managed to win and only one of
the last 10 winners managed to win with just one run. You
would be expecting me to consider the other pair as these
are bigger prices and have more experience. MAXENTIUS
and OLYMPIC GLORY though had hard races just 18 days
ago on Heavy ground and it has to be a worry just how much
that ran has taken out of them and they are only 2 year olds. Its choosing between the lesser of two evils. GHURAIR has just the safer profile for me but the sensible bet could be the split stake bet win and place. OLYMPIC GLORY might be a sensible place bet at 4/6 with GHURAIR the win bet. The more safety conscious of you may want to consider that as an option but most won't and for them I choose GHURAIR.

* GHURAIR Win Bet
* There is an optional Split Stake Bet for those wanting it





G o o d w o o d 3.10

1/16 Frankel, 10/1 Farhh
50/1 Gabrial, 100/1 Bullet Train

A Dissapointing field to test FRANKEL and the likelyhood is
nothing well. Seems baring accidents that FARHH is likely to take second with FRANKEL winning easily. No real interest.




G o o d w o o d 3.45

6/1 Rule Book, 7/1 Scatter Dice, 8/1 Stature, 8/1 Swnymor
8/1 Willie Wag Tail, 9/1 Handsome Man, 12/1 Cardinal Walter
12/1 Trend Is My Friend, 14/1 Last Shadow, 14/1 Mawaqeet
14/1 Sir Graham Wade, 16/1 Goodwood Atlantis
16/1 Misdemeanour, 16/1 Trader Jack, 20/1 Gassin Golf
25/1 Singalat.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 12f
* There are 20 past renewals of this race

* The Draw is unclear but suggests high numbers
* Since 2011 only 8 handicaps here with 10 + runners
* Winners were drawn in the following stalls
* 5 13 11 7 5 10 8 3
* No winners drawn 1 or 3
* 7 of the 8 winners drawn 5 or higher

* Recent winners had the following career starts
* 7 6 7 7 6 8 10 7 8 4
* Only 1 winner had under 6 runs
* That was in a Blanket finish
* It was a triple photo with 6 horses beaten under 2 lengths
* Horses with 6-10 runs did exceedingly well


* Horses with 3-4 career starts have struggled
* In 20 renewals these horses are just 2-69
* RULE BOOK fails that with 4 runs
* No males won from a handicap with under 5 runs before
* GOODWOOD ATLANTIS also has 4 starts
* He fails the same statistic and may be short of runs
* He may not be that well draw
* His sires runners are 0-23 at 12f trips
* Only one even placed and that was a beaten 7/4 fav
* He isnt sure to stay
* GOODWOOD ATLANTIS doesnt offer me enough
* SIR GRAHAM WADE only has 4 runs
* Horses from maiden races struggled in these races
* In this race horses from Maidens are 0-34
* In other races these horses had a 2-46 record
* Both winners had only 2 career starts and won in small fields
* They both won last time and within 19 days
* SIR GRAHAM WADE fails that from a Maiden
* I cant match him with 4 runs doing this
* His 95 day absence is also a problem
* Very few horses win these races with that absence
* All that did have more backclass
* MAWAQEET also fails that as well
* He comes from a Maiden but with just 5 runs
* SWNYMOR only has 4 runs
* No horses like him won coming from 12f handicaps
* Has a recent race won heavy ground which could hurt
* No winners were like him and not for me
* TREND IS MY FRIEND only has 4 runs as well
* CARDINAL WALTER only has 4 runs and Stall 1
* WILLIE WAG TAIL only has 4 runs
* Makes him different from any other male winner
* He also has 49 day off the track after a win
* There are flaws in his profile
* SINGALAT is more exposed than every past winner
* Down in trip he doesnt offer me enough
* GASSIN GOLF ran badly last time over 14f
* There may be excuses but it was still a stinker
* None of the 20 past winners lost by 10 + lengths last time
* GASSIN GOLF lost by 24 lengths and doesnt appeal
* MISDEMEANOUR is a filly
* Only 2 of the 20 winners were fillies
* None ame from 12f races like her so ignoring her
* She may pop up but its safer to assume she wont
* SCATTER DICE won 4 days ago
* Normally I'd see that as a big advantage
* That hasnt been the case in this race
* There is one absence stat that worries me
* Horses that ran within 7 days are 0-19 in this race
* 9 of these 19 horses won last time
* 5 were runner up last time
* 16 of the 19 that lost were placed last time
* Several started favourite and second favourite
* 19 Losers with recent races is a Lot
* What worries me more is none even placed
* SCATTER DICE is also a filly and only 2 won
* None came from 12f races like her
* Think I'd rather stay with a Male
* LAST SHADOW - Average profile but is respected
* Dont like his last run on heavy ground
* Could be a bit overraced this year
* Just about shortlistable given he is 35/1 +
* Overall though I felt there were better options


Possibles


* STATURE - Won a 10f handicap last time
* The 1995 won the same handicap and was like him
* If there is a flaw its his weight and handicap mark
* Won his last two he now has to face topweight

* TRADER JACK - Hard to read. Basic profile fine
* The only winner like him had a longer absence
* I didnt fancy him at Ascot - Statistically wrong then
* Much better Newmarket run last time
* We know this course suits and he is a big price

* HANDSOME MAN - No reason he cant win
* He is close enough to last years winner to be considered
* My only issue is no winners came directly from Royal Ascot


Selection

TRADER JACK 16/1 Win Bet

HANDSOME MAN 8/1 Win Bet


R e d c a r 4.35

5/1 Xclaim, 6/1 Goodness, 6/1 Kalk Bay, 13/2 Chatterati
8/1 Zaplamation, 9/1 Waltz Darling, 10/1 Cottam Donny
10/1 Daliance, 10/1 Strike Force, 12/1 Al Furat
14/1 Law To Himself, 20/1 Medieval Bishop
25/1 Rock Of Deauville.

This is a 10f Handicap. I am not sure about the draw here. I had a look at all handicaps here with between 10 and 13 runners like this. Interesting to find the last 11 winners were all drawn low.

* The last 7 winners of similar races were drawn 1-2-3-4-5
* The last 11 winners of similar races were drawn in Stalls 1-7

Worry most about the higher draws. XCLAIM has the worst
draw in stall 13. I wouldnt make him a negative on that fact alone. He won last time out but it was a weaker race than this and he has only had a couple of runs this season and that's not helpful. There are definate flaws their statistically. He should improve and maybe enough to defy being short of runs but he is neither safe or strong statistically or from the draw. I might be wrong but I am taking on STRIKE FORCE. He has excuses last time with a slipped saddle but I looked at all 8 year olds in similar races that lacked a run within 2 weeks and these all
had more backclass than he does. ROCK OF DEAUVILLE has
a poor profile. MEDIEVAL BISHOP needs more runs before
he will be fit. WALTZ DARLING has been hammered on his
two runs this year and doesn't look ready to win yet by some way. AL FURAT falls short well beaten over further last time and this run comes a bit soon and the only 4 year old to win a race with his profile was far less exposed. LAW TO HIMSELF has similar problems well beaten over further last time and he is not like any winners down from 13f. COTTAM DONNY is facing seveal problems as a 4 year old. He has to go from a 7f race to a 10f race and do that without a run in 7 weeks. Lacks backclass as well and with only 4 runs this season. I would not rule him out completely. I have found a 4yo that overcame all that but he was quite a bit more experienced and he wasn't
beaten as far as COTTAM DONNY last time. I'd describe his
profile as Unimpressive more than dead. GOODNESS has lots
to overcome and I thought his overall profile fell short.

P o s s i b l e s

* ZAPLAMATION - Ridiculous profile but not dead
* He is 7 from a 12f claimer and lacks Class 3 form
* You will always struggle to find similar types win
* I did find an 11yo winner who did have more backclass
* ZAPLAMATION is at least fit and running well
* He is drawn well and has form here before so I respect him

* CHATTERATI is a difficult to read 3yo filly
* Well handicapped on Turf but is she best on Sand ?
* Her profile is very complicated depends on a few things
* One is whether she did enough last time out
* Have to factor in how much the ground counted against her
* Have to factor that into all her turf runs which are not strong

* DALIANCE is hard to read and could be anything
* Not set the world alight so far against 3 year olds
* Meets older handicappers for the first time today
* He is not out of this statistically with a bit of hope
* Dissapointed a little at Epsom but may have hated it there
* Not well drawn in stall 12 but Its not enough against him
* DALIANCE is still at least shortlistable

Selection

KALK BAY was running in top class handicaps in 2011
for W.Haggas. In 2012 when badly handicapped he was
switched to Mick Easterby who has raced him 5 times.
This is a nice drop in class. He has achieved more than
most of these and achieved more than enough last time
in a 0-85 to think he can win this 0-71 class handicap.

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