No Selection Today

No Mention Today



T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

I haven't been able to offer you much in the last few
days because of my move and other things but today
is the start of Royal Ascot and a new chapter in this
season and things will be back to normal from today.

I have decided to stay with Ascot today apart from a
preview at Brighton that somebody requested that I'd
look at for them. Will look at outside meetings later
in the week but I didn't see much I liked today and it
is an Ascot dominated message on the opening day.

I wont go with a bet. The best bet for me comes in a
Novelty Without The Favouite market. In this 2.30
I see STRONG SUIT as a solid each way bet at 5/2 as
the bet does not include Frankel and you would get a
majority of your stake back if he came 4th. The Bet
is too hard to get on and not really the type I should
be tipping but I felt that was the safest bet. I thought
WIZZ KID was my next best in the 3.05. The reality
is today is about looking at the draw and ground and
trying to finish ahead on the day and I will save my
stronger bets for certain target races I like later on.


A s c o t S e l e c t i o n s


Ascot 2.30 - STRONG SUIT 5/2 E/W without the fav

Ascot 3.05 - WIZZ KID 11/2 Win Bet

Ascot 3.45 - DRAGON PULSE 11/1 Each Way

Ascot 4.25 - CRISTOFORO COLOMBO 7/1 Win Bet
DAWN APPROACH Place Bet Evens

Ascot 5.00 - AL KHAWANEEJ 8/1 Each Way


M o n d a y 's R e v i e w

It was all very average yesterdy especially during the
afternoon. The evening part of the message did much
better and all 3 horses won levelling it out a little. No
bets on the day and obviously quiet but the night came
good and rescued the day on a quiet inactive day for us.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S



A s c o t 2.30

1/6 Frankel, 6/1 Excelebration, 10/1 Strong Suit
33/1 Helmet, 33/1 Side Glance, 33/1 Worthadd
50/1 Premio Loco, 50/1 Red Jazz, 66/1 Indomito
200/1 Bullet Train, 200/1 Windsor Palace.


The Queen Anne Stakes is a Group 1 race over a mile
and this year FRANKEL both lights up and spoils the
race. His presence is the chance to see the best horse
in training again yet not one we can bet at the price.
FRANKEL should win but it's worth remembering he
wasn't impressive in this race last year and only just
scraped home. There are two obvious dangers. I feel
that EXCELEBRATION should place and could find
enough to win if FRANKEL runs below form. I feel
STRONG SUIT is the other to consider. Horses that
race first time out as 4 year olds have won this race
in 1994 1997 2006. I give STRONG SUIT a serious
chance of finishing second. There is a good bet that
looks worth having taking STRONG SUIT each way
Without the favourite. Whatever Frankel does here
wont matter. I think thats the best value option.

Selection

Without The Favourite Market

STRONG SUIT Each Way 5/2 +

11/4 Ladbrokes Stan J Skybet 1/5 1,2,3
5/2 Bet365 1/4 1,2,3
5/2 Boyles VC PPower Sp bet Blue Sq 1/5 1,2,3
9/4 Totesport -Betfred 1/4 1,2,3

Anyone that is not interested in betting him when
so short each way then consider a place bet as well.
I see both STRONG SUIT and EXCELEBRATION
placing. You could even bet both to place and there
would have to be something unusual happen for that
to go wrong. Have the bet that best suits you and I'd
base that on the expected 1-2-3 with FRANKEL1st
STRONG SUIT 2nd and EXCELEBRATION in 3rd.


Selection

Without The Favourite Market

STRONG SUIT Each Way 9/4 +



A s c o t 3.05

4/1 Bated Breath, 5/1 Ortensia, 5/1 Wizz Kid
8/1 Sole Power, 10/1 Little Bridge, 14/1 Joy And Fun
14/1 Prohibit, 20/1 Margot Did, 20/1 Spirit Quartz
20/1 Tangerine Trees, 25/1 Masamah, 33/1 Amour Propre
33/1 Hamish Mcgonagall, 33/1 Ponty Acclaim
33/1 Stone Of Folca, 40/1 Bapak Chinta
40/1 Dinkum Diamond, 40/1 Medicean Man
40/1 Monsieur Joe, 40/1 Secret Asset, Stepper Point
50/1 Caledonia Lady, 50/1 Night Carnation.

* The King's Stand is a Group 1 sprint over 5f
* There has been 21 renewals since 1990
* Lots of dead wood in this Sprint
* I would Avoid horses with 1 run this season
* I went back to 1990 to find how many runs winners had
* The following is the number of runs each winner had
* Thats the number of runs since January 1st that year
* 8 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 Fto 2 2 4 3 3 3 2 2 Fto Fto 3 3
* 8 of the last 9 winners had 3-4 runs that season
* I think we have to avoid horses with 1 run that year
* STONE OF FOLCA does that and is avoided
* I dont see him as safe from a Handicap
* TANGERINE TREES is out with 1 run this year
* Especially as a 7yo who came last in the 2011 race
* MASAMAH wouldnt interest me with 1 run this year
* AMOUR PROPRE is out for similar reasons
* ORTENSIA the favourite has 1 run this season
* BATED BREATH the 2nd favourite also has 1 run
* More about these two horses later
* Statistics say avoid horses aged 8 or more
* None have won since my records started in 1979
* JOY AND FUN fails that and is rejected
* I dont want a 9yo absent 80 days
* Fillies aged 4 have a 0-26 record in this race
* MARGOT DID fails that and flopped last time
* Thats a concern and I cant match her
* MEDICEAN MAN - Not beaten in a handicap last time
* PROHIBIT won this race last year
* You may recall we were on him with a recent run
* This year he isnt as fit and isn't running as well
* Now a 7yo it may be asking a lot of him

P o s s i b l e s

* ORTENSIA has raced once this season
* We know thats a bad preparation in this race
* She is Australian and a hard horse to read because of that
* Against her she has several things to overcome
* She is a Mare and has raced just once this season
* She has 80 days absence to overcome as well
* ORTENSIA also prefers a faster surface
* She may find her speed blunted on ground like this

* BATED BREATH has ran once this season
* Not a factor I like in this contest
* BATED BREATH just broke Haydocks Track record
* He is top class but will he handle rain softened ground ?
* His runs on soft ground are far inferior than those on fast
* Look at his record in fields of 13 or more
* He finished 8 2 9 2 5 10 since his Maiden
* Thats probably irrelevant as they may split
* There are doubts about him on the ground
* You can argue his best form is over 6f as well

* SOLE POWER was 8th in this race last year
* He wasnt drawn that well last year which didnt help
* He's just come 2nd at Haydock to Bated Breath
* Beaten only in a photo he also broke the track record
* His problem is can he handle the softer ground
* His only soft ground runs came very early in his career
* I wouldnt rule him out of handling softer ground
* If he does he also has to prove Stall 22 isnt a problem
* All the fancied horses are drawn much lower
* SPIRIT QUARTZ also comes from the Temple Stakes
* He may have been a bit busy this year
* He is held by some of these as well
* That said he is unexposed and is not far away
* LITTLE BRIDGE is a Foreign raider
* Hard to judge he has to be respected
* Said to be best Fresh he should be shortlisted

Selection

WIZZ KID 11/2 Win Bet


I wanted to go with Sole Power as well. I havent down
to the Draw. I just see him being isolated but I wouldnt
listen to his trainers bleetings about withdrawing him
on soft ground. He has been overplaying his fears and
I thought Sole Power had a serious chance. In the end
I was most persuaded by WIZZ KID's chance much as
she is not as safe statistically as I would like really.


* WIZZ KID is a filly aged 4
* So far fillies aged 4 are 0-26 in this race since 1990
* Thats a concern and I cant match her since 1990
* I am ignoring that because of the following

* Habibti won as a 4yo filly back in 1984
* Only 26 tried and failed and 17 of these were 20/1 +
* That leaves only 9 Fillies aged 4 starting under 20/1
* Fleeting Spirit was 2nd as a 4yo filly in 2009
* The 1998 runner up was also a 4yo filly
* The 3rds in 1987 and 1999 were also 4yo fillies
* That tells me I should accept 4yo fillies as fine
* WIZZ KID comes here with a good recent win
* She has some high class sprint form
* With Momentum behind her I see her going close

Selection - WIZZ KID 11/2



A s c o t 3.45

3/1 Power, 8/1 Born To Sea, 8/1 Most Improved
9/1 Hermival, 10/1 Dragon Pulse, 10/1 Lucayan
12/1 Fencing, 12/1 Foxtrot Romeo, 14/1 Cogito
14/1 Gregorian, 14/1 The Nile, 16/1 Gabrial
25/1 Wrote, 50/1 Arnold Lane, 66/1 Saigon
100/1 Miblish.

* This is a Group 1 race for colts over 8f.
* The Draw is a Pig to consider in races with 13 +
* The past 5 winners were drawn 23 24 1 5 4 5
* I dont think you can rule out any draw
* Past winners had the following number of career starts
* 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 9 9 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 5
* Past winners had the following number of runs that season
* 2 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 4 runs that season
* I'd ideally like 5-9 runs and 2-4 that season
* The last 4 and 18 of the last 20 winners had that profile
* I know the last 20 winners had Group 1 or Group 2 form
* COGITO lacks that and is rejected
* THE NILE also lacks that and is rejected
* GABRIAL comes from a handicap
* No past winners managed that
* WROTE doesnt offer me enough
* He may well end up with the worst draw
* FENCING drops from a 10f race
* The 1998 winner came from 9f but none did from 10f
* He hasnt finished 1st or 2nd in his last 3 runs
* GREGORIAN doesnt appeal from a 11f race
* Most past winners had run more than once this season.
* MOST IMPROVED doesnt interest me with 1 run
* Not when you consider he is down from 11f
* Not when he was beaten further than any recent winner
* Not when he may not have the best of draws
* ARNOLD LANE doesnt appeal with 1 run this season
* FOXTROT ROMEO has just 1 run this season
* No horse managed that when so inexperienced
* He was 2nd to Power last time as a 33/1 afterthough
* I dont feel he is good enough
* HERMIVAL placed in the Guineas
* He was then 6th in the Irish Guineas
* He was reported to have returned sore in that race
* With 4 runs he has less than most recent winners
* 19 of the last 20 winners had more career starts
* BORN TO SEA also has just 4 career starts
* That puts him in an unsafe place statistically
* His Sire hasnt had a Group 1 winner at 8f or more yet
* BORN TO SEA has yet to prove his stamina in the class
* BORN TO SEA - I can see him nicking a place


S e l e c t i o n

* 18 of the last 20 winners had the following profile
* They had 5-6-7-8-9 career starts
* They had 2-3-4 runs that season
* They had Form in Group 1 or Group 2 Class before

Several horses had that. I took out GABRIAL because
he came from a handicap. I eliminated GREGORIAN
and FENCING coming down in distance something no
past winners did. This leaves me with three horses.

* POWER has an obvious chance
* His 2yo form is as good as anything in the race
* Flopped first time he won the Irish Guineas last time
* That was a very soft race and slowly run
* It proved little in terms of his ability

* LUCAYAN won a French Group 1 last time
* That was at 33/1 and something of a surprise
* Nothing much wrong with his profile though

* DRAGON PULSE has 6 runs and 2 this season
* That puts him in the right place statistically
* He ran badly last time but it was a falsely run race
* DRAGON PULSE did start 3/1 for that Group 1 race
* I see Ladbrokes have radically ducked him

Selection

DRAGON PULSE 11/1

Each Way





A s c o t 4.25

4/1 Dawn Approach, 4/1 Sir Prancealot
5/1 Cristoforo Colombo, 8/1 Englishman, Lines Of Battle
12/1 Funk Soul Brother, 12/1 The Taj, 14/1 Artigiano
20/1 Indian Jade, 20/1 New Pearl, 20/1 Olympic Glory
25/1 Heavy Metal, Master Of War, 33/1 King Dragon
40/1 Leitir Mor, 40/1 Party Royal, 50/1 Jubilee Brig
50/1 Living Desert, 50/1 Top Boy, 50/1 Whitfield
100/1 Baddilini, Mrs Brown´s Boy, 200/1 Dark Emerald.

The Coventry Stakes is over 6f for 2 year olds. Plenty
of strong contenders this year as well as no hopers and
it has been a long time since a shock winner. You want
a last time out winner like all recent ones. NEW PEARL
was beaten at long odds on last time and doesn't appeal.
I am taking on SIR PRANCEALOT. Statistically I have
to accept he's fine as last years winner won from Listed
Class over 5f with two runs to win. Before last year the
record of horses from Listed races was awful. Not ready
to assume it's an advantage and SIR PRANCEALOT is
not guaranteed to be well drawn in Stall 21. Also drawn
very high is THE TAJ who I felt was wrong as younger
than the others that can win and a late foal. I'm unsure
what to make of DAWN APPROACH who is unbeaten
after 3 runs in Ireland. I'm going to oppose him. I dont
see him coming from a Listed race as an advantage and
I also note that DAWN APPROACH would be younger
than every past winner since the 1980's. Having three
runs is not an advantage. He has only won in small field
races twice at odds on and I don't see a typical Coventry
winner like him. That said I think DAWN APPROACH
should nick a place and is the saver. OLYMPIC GLORY
isn't for me rejected by Richard Hughes. Another horse
rejected for another is FUNK SOUL BROTHER which
puts me off him. ARTIGIANO may not appreciate the
ground on the soft side and is hardly imposing. I wasnt
convinced about ENGLISHMAN on the ground or via
a 5f race or with a 60 day absence. You can really only
guess at the end of the day and I came down in favour
of Aidan O'Briens horses and I prefer one over another.

* LINES OF BATTLE - Shortlisted but ground an issue
* He also looks the stables second string
* CRISTOFORO COLOMBO - Would be my choice e/w

Selection

Split Stake Bet

CRISTOFORO COLOMBO 7/1 Win Bet
DAWN APPROACH Place Bet Evens



A s c o t 5.00

13/2 Simenon, 15/2 Al Khawaneej, 8/1 Ashbrittle
8/1 Elyaadi, 10/1 Cosimo De Medici, 10/1 Veiled
11/1 Dark Ranger, 12/1 Monterey, 14/1 Fiulin
14/1 Western Pearl, 16/1 Danvilla, 16/1 Sentry Duty
20/1 Scots Gaelic, 20/1 Twin Soul, 25/1 Becausewecan
25/1 Spice Fair, 33/1 Nafaath, 33/1 Private Story
33/1 Tuscan Gold, 50/1 Call It On.

* The Ascot Stakes is a marathon 2m 4f handicap
* None of the last 21 winners were aged 9 +
* SENTRY DUTY - My angles say he is too old
* I looked at horses from 14f or shorter
* None were female like ELYAADI
* Horses from 14f or less with 1-2 runs this year struggled
* ELYAADI does that as a mare with 1 run this season
* WESTERN PEARL is a Mare from a 12f race
* Poor profile especially with 1-2 runs this season
* Her sire hasnt had a winner past 2m yet
* COSIMO DE MEDICI comes from 12f
* I am against him doing that with 1 run this season
* He also has a career high mark
* Only 3 winners were absent 7 + weeks
* FIULIN is a little exposed to have that absence
* VEILED won this race last season
* She was a rare winner for the females
* She is higher in the weights this year
* She has far fewer prep runs as well
* Absent 17 days last year this year she has 68
* Nobody can rule her out from her trainer
* She wouldnt be my first choice though
* DANVILLA is a Mare as were 2 winners
* Both mares had more runs that season
* Both had more backclass as well
* I dont think she has the backclass to take this
* SIMENON has 9st 10lbs a tough weight
* Hard to read as he has been hurdling
* He has Group Class form on the Flat
* Very few past winners had ever ran in Group races
* Makes me think he could be vulnerable to improvers
* MONTEREY also has Group Class form
* I couldnt match him as lightly raced older horse
* DARK RANGER is exposed and few winners were
* He also has a months absence to overcome
* His profile is average at best and he has a bit to prove
* His best win is only off 62 in a Class 4 handicap
* Today he has a rating of 87 in a Class 2 handicap
* This year he has been 2nd 2nd 2nd
* Each Time his rating rose from 73 to 76 79 and 87
* I think DARK RANGER has enough to prove


S h o r t l i s t

* ASHBRITTLE has an absence but is lightly raced
* Well beaten in this last year but was badly hampered
* I like his profile this year and shortlist him

* AL KHAWANEEJ is 4 and won last time out
* Horses aged 4 winning last time were rare
* The only 4yo doing it had far more runs
* I would see AL KHAWANEEJ as a neutral statistically
* Has to be considered a positive overall though
* He is improving fast and has plenty of substance

Selection

AL KHAWANEEJ 8/1

Each Way



A s c o t 5.35

4/1 Lyric Ace, 11/2 Pay Freeze, 7/1 Smoothtalkinrascal
9/1 Dylanbaru, 10/1 Parliament Square, 12/1 Alhebayeb
12/1 Bungle Inthejungle, 12/1 Liber, 16/1 Ajmany
16/1 Ask Dad, 16/1 Hototo, 20/1 Cosmic Chatter
20/1 Polski Max, 25/1 Tommy´s Secret 33/1 Pixilated 33/1 Trinityelitedotcom, , 40/1 Pearl Noir,50/1 Mossgo,
50/1 Fletcher Christian, 50/1 Top Notch Tonto
66/1 Marvelino, 100/1 Jackpot, 100/1 Little Miss Zuri.

The Windsor Castle stakes is a Listed race over 5f for juveniles and having upgraded over the years its one of the harder races statistically to make any observations about. I am using 6 stats to get a shortlist this year and these 6 trends feel my best angles.

* Oppose horses with 4 + runs
* Avoid all unraced horses
* Avoid horses from 6f races
* Avoid all fillies with 3 + runs
* Avoid all horses from Maidens with 3 + runs
* Avoid all horses started 16/1 or more last time out

* This leads me to these horses
* ALHEBAYEB - COSMIC CHATTER
* BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE - LYRIC ACE
* SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL

No Selection




B r i g h t o n 8.00

5/1 Lightning Spirit, 5/1 Toga Tiger, 6/1 Cobbs Quay
7/1 Brown Pete, 7/1 Daffydowndilly, 8/1 Hip Hip Hooray
12/1 My Vindication, 12/1 Putin, 12/1 Wind Star
14/1 Lutine Charlie, 14/1 Pearl Opera, 20/1 High On The Hog
20/1 Sentosa.


* This is a Handicap just short of a Mile
* SENTOSA didnt do enough last time
* HIGH ON THE HOG - Weak profile overall
* No 4yo like him was well beaten over 10f
* PEARL OPERA - Comes out badly on her last 2 runs
* MY VINDICATION - I feel he needs more runs his year
* DAFFYDOWNDILLY is 4 with 1 run this year
* I found a 4yo filly winning with 1 run
* She ran better last time and was not close
* DAFFYDOWNDILLY may also want another run
* LUTINE CHARLIE - I'd oppose him with his absence
* PUTIN is a exposed 4yo from a 7f race
* Not a good profile but not bad enough for a negative
* I have 5 better prrofiles so he is rejected

S h o r t l i s t

* TOGA TIGER is impossible to assess
* Not keen on last time winners with 1 run that year
* None were exposed like him
* None lacked a recent run like him
* Not even keen on his Draw in Stall 1
* His profile is not one that I would be interested in
* It's just that he is so well treated he has to be respected

* WIND STAR - Statistically he is just about ok
* I'd prefer a recent run but I can match him to a winner

* HIP HIP HOORAY is an exposed 6yo mare
* She is absent a Month and 1 winner was like her
* That horse was well beaten last time as well
* She was a similar type and I like her chance
* Well treated and would win this on Brighton form in April
* HIP HIP HOORAY has won fresh and she looks interesting

* LIGHTNING SPIRIT - Overall she is shortlistable
* The winner like her did come from a better class race though

* BROWN PETE - I have no statistical objections

S e l e c t i o n

BROWN PETE 8/1 Each Way

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