No Selection Today

No Mention Today



T o d a y 's O p t i o n s


Day 2 of York. Some of the conditions races leave me
cold and in other races my angles have pushed me into
a corner allowing me no wriggle room. Decided not to
do Bath today. Took too much time with big fields and
the ground on the soft side. Its a dissapointment but it
was for tactical reasons and rather than risk losing bets
there I am trying for National Hunt winners elsewhere.
At least thats the plan much as they wont be big prices.


York 2.00

ROCKY GROUND 11/4 Each Way

My best bet had to be Blessington each way but he does
not run after been found Lame last night. Replacement
he may be but ROCKY GROUND was my only other I
liked and I think it will take a lot to get him out of the
frame so despite the price I suggest each way. Note the
Bookmakers Skybet (1/4 1234) - Betfred (1/4 1234)
have 4 places and a quarter the odds and other firms do
have a quarter the odds as well. Thats very fair here.


I did think about putting ROCKY GROUND (2PM) with
ZAPLAMATION 7/4 in the 5.10pm at Cartmel the big
idea being two win bets and an each way double. Decided
not to do that. I see it as a Good Bet though if you think
you'd rather have that the the each way single in the 2pm.


Ffos Las 2.10

Just interested to see if my negtaive loses. I dont fancy
Clarion Call so I want it beat and to escape unhurt here.


Ffos Las 2.40

GRAND LAHOU Win Bet

Small field and he should be around Evens or 10/11 and
I think he has a much safer profile than his main danger.
I thought he would win given his current mood and fitness.

York 3.05

KAHRUMAN 7/1 +

Each Way

Big preview. No Stone Unturned here. My stats have left
me no wiggle room. I could have had half a dozen placed
on the shortlist with a few flaws but there was only 1 that
came out best and that was KAHRUMAN. Have to be so
careful now about targets and what connections might do
just before the weights for the Cambridgeshire are out and
it has crossed my mind it could be a prep race but there is
always scaremongering about these issues and I think he's
worth an each way bet with 4 places as he comes out well.


No Bet Today

It was to have been Blessington but he doesnt run now so
rather than have second best I'm happy to wait again. I'm
going to bet my options today but there was nothing that
looked strong enough to stake that wasnt a short price.




T u e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

It was Frankel's day yesterday yet again but I only hope
it gives Sir Henry Cecil the boost he clearly needs. Not
a bad message by any means yesterday but one luckless
effort. We should have started with a big priced winner
as Mass Rally was a very unlucky second and beaten by
my only other option in a race we almost perfected so
a very frustrating start. I wasn't surprised the negative
in the 2.45pm won as non runners made it a tiny field
but it was good to see the 3.20pm negative lose and we
had the 1st and 2nd in the race from three options and
again a but frustrating only the saver won. That was a
race I badly needed a non runner from one of my three.
It could have been so much better but the message had
a lot to offer and illustrated the margins are so thin at
times between having great days or only luckless ones.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


Y o r k 2.00

7/2 Rocky Ground, 8/1 Annunciation
8/1 Mister Marc, 10/1 Body And Soul, Hototo, 12/1 Liber
14/1 New Pearl, 14/1 Saint Jerome, 16/1 Barracuda Boy
16/1 Indian Jade, 25/1 Carlton Blue, 25/1 Dream Maker
33/1 Baddilini, 33/1 Scentpastparadise, 33/1 Shahdaroba
33/1 Well Acquainted, 33/1 Woodland Mill
40/1 Polski Max 50/1 Lady Poppy.

* This is a Sales race for 2 year olds over 6f
* There are 48 similar races in August-September
* I'd oppose horses with 1 run if from an Auction race
* Horses that wear Headgear should be opposed
* Avoid horses with 2-3-4 runs if they have not won before
* Horses from Nurseries have to be avoided
* The following horses come from Nurseries are are out
* BARRACUDA BOY - CARLTON BLUE -NEW PEARL
* POLSKI MAX - LADY POPPY -SCENTPASTPARADISE
* You should oppose horses with 7 or more runs
* WOODLAND MILL - DREAM MAKER -LIBER fail that
* You want a horse that ran within 7 weeks
* INDIAN JADE has that against him
* Horses from 5f races are best from maidens
* Horses that came from 5f condtions races are poor
* Ignore all horses doing that who lost last time
* HOTOTO - LIBER - MISTER MARC fail that
* Horses from 5f races are best with 2-4 runs
* ANNUNCIATION fails that
* Avoid Males from 5f if beaten last time
* Fillies from 7f races are poor
* DREAM MAKER has that against her
* Horses winning maidens last time with 3 + runs are unsafe
* WELL ACQUAINTED - SHAHDAROBA
* SAINT JEROME is male from a 6f maiden
* Horses with that profile and a run within 2 weeks are 0-42
* BODY AND SOUL falls short a filly with an absence from 5f
* BADDILINI also falls short

S h o r t l i s t

* ROCKY GROUND - Looks fine and win bet
* My Main danger is Annunciation
* Some may want a saver or a place bet as well

Selection

ROCKY GROUND





F f o s L a s 2.10

11/8 Strongly Suggested, 2/1 Miracle House, 3/1 Clarion Call 10/1 Tenby Jewel, 33/1 Bob Casey, 33/1 Picklegend
66/1 Sovereigns Legacy.

* This is a maiden hurdle over 2m 6f
* I looked at all similar races in July -August-September
* 4 year olds won plenty of these races
* None however had 9 or more previous runs
* CLARION CALL has 10 runs and fails that
* Look at 4 year olds from 2m races
* They had 2-6 6 record
* Both winners had under 4 previous National Hunt runs
* CLARION CALL doesnt look safe with 10 runs
* MIRACLE HOUSE doesnt come out well either
* He is an exposed 8yo absent 64 days
* No exposed 7yo won absent more than a Month
* TENBY JEWEL - Aged 7 absent 319 days but a positive
* I found winners like him and he is respected
* STRONGLY SUGGESTED is also a positive

Selection

STRONGLY SUGGESTED Win Bet 2/1
TENBY JEWEL 9/1 + Saver



Y o r k 2.30

10/11 Newfangled, 9/2 Rosdhu Queen, 8/1 Badr Al Badoor
8/1 Baileys Jubilee, 8/1 Pearl Sea, 10/1 Sandreamer
25/1 City Girl, 33/1 Royal Rascal, 40/1 All Fur Coat
66/1 Threes Grand.

The Lowther is a Group race for fillies over 6f. This race
has not gone to a horse with 6 or more career starts since
the Mid 1980's so I am taking out BAILEYS JUBILEE as
too exposed. ROYAL RASCAL is out as no winners came
from a Nursery. ALL FUR COAT and THREES GRAND
are out of their depths. There are many winners coming
from Maidens but none of these took 3 runs to win that
maiden as PEARL SEA and CITY GIRL have. No horse
with 1 run has won this having had an absence or longer
than a month which puts me off BADR AL BADOOR.

* ROSDHU QUEEN - 1 horse ran with her profile
* That horse was 3rd favourite finishing 4th
* She's a neutra rather than a negative
* SANDREAMER - 2 horses with her profile
* One finished 6th and was the 6th favourite
* The other (Hooray) won this with 4 career start
* She won a maiden and twice lost in Pattern company
* She was beaten seven lengths at Newbury in the St Hughs.
* Thats a very similar profile to SANDREAMER.

* She's a positive despite a poor quick returnes overall record
* NEWFANGLED - Positive but not 100% safe
* I dont think her profile matches her price
* A split stake bet could be the option
* PEARL SEA could well be the one for a place
* Criticised her earier for taking 3 runs to win a maiden
* Unfair as she ran into a smart horse in Certify
* That horse won a Group Race next time out
* All her maidens were in big fields on Grade 1 tracks
* I think she may be able to nick a place here

Tempted by a split stake bet but the annoying thing here
is half the bet goes on an odds on shot who is not a good
price. I want to explain my dilemma with NEWFANGLED.

* Horses absent 7 weeks or more
* More than 1 career start
* I found 6 winners with this profile
* 5 came from a 5f race at Ascot
* The other came from a 7f race at York
* Those like NEWFANGLED from 6f were 0-11
* Doesnt worry me too much but it is there
* I dont want to take odds on when I cant match him

Selection

Made a complete Dogs Dinner of this race but in the
end I decided to bet two horses each way to tiny stakes.

PEARL SEA 10/1 Small E/W Bet
SANDREAMER 16/1 Small E/W Bet



F f o s L a s 2.40

5/4 Praxiteles, 11/8 Grand Lahou, 6/1 Dancewiththedevil
14/1 Oran Flyer, 25/1 Regency Dreams

This is a 2m Claiming Hurdle. You can make a case for
PRAXITELES being the best horse but its a worry he is
available to be claimed so cheaply and there is hardly a
lot of encouragement from his recent Flat races. With
a recent win albeit in selling grade GRAND LAHOU is
far easier to like. Not at all surprised he is now a shade
of odds on and thats fair and I would expect him to win.

Selection - GRAND LAHOU 10/11




Y o r k 3.05

6/1 Anderiego, 8/1 Kahruman, 10/1 Postscript
10/1 Trade Storm, 12/1 Crown Counsel, Excellent Guest
12/1 Indian Jack, 12/1 Switzerland, 14/1 Invisible Man
14/1 Lord Aeryn, 14/1 Navajo Chief, 14/1 Prince Of Johanne
16/1 Vainglory, 20/1 Al Muheer, 20/1 Sandagiyr
20/1 Santefisio, 25/1 Diamondhead, 25/1 Imperial Djay
25/1 Lady Macduff, 25/1 Strictly Silver.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-107 rated horses
* Since 2005 York has had 31 big field 8f handicaps
* 7 of the last 8 winners were drawn 3-4-5-6-7-8
* Thats just about the safest draw to have
* Horses drawn 17 or higher had a 0-59 record
* The very high draws have struggled over this C+D
* EXCELLENT GUEST is badly drawn in 17
* Looked at all exposed 5 year olds like him
* The only winners had more runs that year as well
* INVISIBLE MAN is badly drawn in stall 18
* His profile isnt safe enough to overlook that
* POSTSCRIPT is badly drawn in stall 19
* He doesnt have any Class 2 form so best avoided
* VAINGLORY - Oldest horse and the worst draw
* DIAMONDHEAD - Underraced for a 3yo from 7f
* STRICTLY SILVER has the same problem as well
* LADY MACDUFF is a 3yo filly
* These types rarely win and none like her
* She has less experience than the other 3yo fillies
* None of them came from 3yo handicaps either
* SANDAGIYR is unsafe from a Group 2 race
* No past winner has won this race with so much weight
* I think there are much safer options
* SWITZERLAND is 3 and has 16 runs
* The most exposed winning 3yo had 14 runs
* That was Fulbright who won two weeks ago
* SWITZERLAND has 2 more runs and a big difference
* He comes up in Class and Fulbright didn't
* SWITZERLAND doesnt offer me enough
* NAVAJO CHIEF won this last year as a 4yo
* This year he is an exposed 5yo absent a month
* Not a strong profile and he isnt for me
* Not off his current mark and a 7lbs claimer
* IMPERIAL DJAY is on a career high mark
* No horse as old as him won beaten so far last time
* AL MUHEER doesnt interest me and is ungenuine
* You'd be unlucky if he popped up and spoilt a bet
* LORD AERYN won last time out
* Difficult for exposed horses to follow up wins
* I looked at exposed horses aged 5 + winning at 8f last time
* I found a 1-30 record with the only winner Stevie Thunder
* He won a lower class race at 20/1 last time out
* This is harder as he moves from a 0-90 to a 0-107
* He's 0-6 in Class 2 races and may not have the class
* SANTEFISIO is an exposed 6yo from an 8f handicap
* Most winners doing that had absences
* Those that ran within 2 weeks were just 1-79
* SANTEFISIO has a Career high mark today
* All his wins are in much lower grade races
* He's exposed yet 0-10 in Class 3 and better
* He would need a career best by some way
* TRADE STORM is 4 and has 3 runs this year
* TRADE STORM also has 16 career starts
* Looked at 4 year olds with 13 or more runs
* None of these had 1-2-3 runs that season
* TRADE STORM - Cant rule him out but He falls short
* I wanted at least 1 more run this season
* I dont think Stall 1 is one of the better draws either
* He has also gone up 4ls for losing last time
* PRINCE OF JOHANNE is an exposed 6yo
* He comes from an 8f handicap with 4 runs this season
* Horses like him with No Group form won 1 race
* That horse ran better than he did last time
* He also had must less weight as well
* PRINCE OF JOHANNE isnt quite right
* INDIAN JACK is a 4yo male down in distance
* No 4yo managed that with more than 9 runs
* INDIAN JACK has 16 and doesnt come out well
* CROWN COUNSEL is a bit of a dilemma
* He's an exposed 4yo coming from 8f
* Looked at sim ilar 4 year olds without Pattern form
* There were 4 winners but they all ran over 2 weeks ago
* Those that ran within 2 weeks like him were 0-35
* That leaves a small cloud of doubt about him
* CROWN COUNSEL - I'd have liked a better match
* ANDERIEGO is 4 and won an 8f handicap last time
* Looked at similar unexposed types with 13 + runs
* I found a 1-20 record which isnt that good
* That horse ran within 2 weeks
* ANDERIEGO hasnt run inn 27 days
* I'd have prefered a stronger profile given his price

S h o r t l i s t

* KAHRUMAN is 3 and absent 63 days
* I looked at 3yo's absent 7 weeks or more
* Those like KAHRUMAN with 4-5-6 runs
* Those from 8f -9f 3yo handicaps
* Similar horses had a 4-6 record
* Those like KAHRUMAN with 4 runs were 1-1
* KAHRUMAN has to be a positive

Selection

KAHRUMAN 7/1 +

Each Way




Y o r k 3.40

13/8 The Fugue, 3/1 Shareta, 11/2 Was
7/1 Wild Coco, 9/1 Shirocco Star, 14/1 Bible Belt
14/1 Coquet.

The Yorkshire Oaks is a badly framed race this year and it
has never been a good statistical race. This leaves only an
irrelevant set of opinions. No winners like WILD COCO
came down from 14f to win this. I see BIBLE BELT just
short of the right class. I dont see why COQUET should
beat fillies that beat her in the Oaks when they have had
runs since. SHARETA is impossible to judge coming from
France. It would be a big worry she has not managed a win
in her last 6 starts but on the other hand she has been just desperate for fast ground and if getting that has to be one to consider. THE FUGUE and WAS are clearly similar in ability having clashed more than once. The bottom line
is these are hard to seperate. THE FUGUE has done little
wrong and I don't see any negatives about her chance. In
the end I thought THE FUGUE was the most likely here
to win but the price and frame of the race leaves me cold.



Y o r k 4.15

13/8 Sequence, 11/4 Pale Mimosa, 13/2 Bite Of The Cherry
13/2 Firdaws, 8/1 Cracking Lass, 12/1 Dane Street
14/1 Aniseed.

* The Galtres Stakes is a 12f Listed race for fillies
* No winner came from a 3yo handicap to win
* BITE OF THE CHERRY fails that
* ANISEED has just won a maiden after 6 runs
* Thats surely too much of a leap in class
* Horses beaten 4 + lengths last time were poor
* In the last 23 renewals these horses were 1-57
* DANE STREET didnt do enough last time
* FIRDAWS - Not sure about her
* 22 of the last 23 winners ran closer than her last time
* CRACKING LASS has the same problem
* She was also 2nd last year but now she is a 5yo
* This is best left to the younger horses

Shortlist

* PALE MIMOSA is very lightly raced
* The 1996 and 1997 winners were as well
* Been a while since one won but I have to respect her
* SEQUENCE was impressed in a Class 4 handicap last time
* Last years winner also came from a Class 4 handicap
* With the 2010 winner also from a handicap she is fine
* SEQUENCE's recent work is more persuasive
* SEQUENCE is my selection



Y o r k 4.45

7/2 Ladyship, 6/1 Riot Of Colour, 8/1 Whimsical
10/1 Dance Company, 10/1 Instance, 10/1 Shabora
12/1 Dutch Rose, 12/1 Jade, 12/1 Shesastar
14/1 Bunraku, 16/1 Honeymead, 16/1 Night Lily
20/1 No Poppy, 20/1 Swerve, 25/1 Misplaced Fortune.

Only 6 of these fillies handicaps have been run in this
sort of Class before. This is too difficult a race for the
few angles we have. These are just some observations.

* Look at the 12 Handicaps here with 10 + runners
* Since 2010 the winners had the following stall numbers
* 15 12 14 18 8 1 8 7 7 9 12 10
* Clearly a high number is betetr than a low number
* Horses aged 3 tend to have the strongest record
* Look at horses aged 4 and older
* They all had at least 13 runs and at least 4 that year
* They all had Group Class form
* They all ran within 2 weeks
* They all came from 7f or more last time
* The following 4yo's fail at least one of these stats
* INSTANCE -MISPLACED FORTUNE - NIGHT LILY
* SHESASTAR -HONEYMEAD -NO POPPY -JADE
* All 3 year old winners were similar
* None came from a Mile or longer
* They had 5-12 career starts and came from handicaps
* They were all beaten last time out as well
* None however were beaten 6 + lengths last time
* SWERVE doesnt fit that profile
* SHABORA 's last run puts me off
* DANCE COMPANY is wrong winning a Class 4 last time


S h o r t l i s t

* DUTCH ROSE - Borderline case but she's made it
* LADYSHIP - Happy she passes all the main stats
* RIOT OF COLOUR also passes all tests
* WHIMSICAL - Another who sails though as well
* It was a tight choice as I like all four of these

Selection - RIOT OF COLOUR 7/1 Each Way





C a r t m e l l 5.20

7/4 Zaplamation, 2/1 Bollin Dolly, 7/1 Molaise Lad
12/1 Dunaskin, 16/1 Cathcart Castle, 16/1 Rare Coincidence
25/1 Stadium Of Light, 33/1 Escape Artist
33/1 Quite Sparky, 50/1 Amjad.

* This is a Selling Hurdle short of 17f
* I looked at all similar races in July -August-September
* Looked at horses with 1 run
* None were aged 8 or more
* BOLLIN DOLLY is 9 doing this and a Mare
* BOLLIN DOLLY doesnt look safe to me
* ZAPLAMATION looks the most likely winner


F o l k e s t o n e 5.40

* I couldn't split the market leaders
* DEVINE GUEST if you put a gun to my head
* I'd see her as the bet bet in an each way double

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