Mathematician 129329-06-2012






No Selection Today

No Mention Today


T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

Lots of Racing today despite Newcastle abandoning
its fixture. What you need on these days is pot luck
to get the right races done as you can't do them all.
Having reached Noon and message time my feeling
is there are a lot of scrappy frames with 7-8 runner
races with 7/2 chances I could easily fancy and turn
into bets had there been either a couple more taking
part of had these been slightly bigger odds as well. I
thought two such options were the following pair -


Musselburgh 3.10 - CADGERS BRIG 11/4

Chester 7.25 - REYAMOUR 4/1


I could have played two win bets and an each way
double had I had more runners and better prices.


I thought HENRY BEE (4.55) was interesting but
he is a short price. WE HAVE A DREAM (3.55)
was another I could have gone with but his race is
slightly warmer than I'd have liked and I can't get
a strong view about some of his main opponents.


You may be getting impatient for a bet. Its again
a day I want to wait. Some reasons for this below.
Having a Loser is worse than Having No Bet and
I always knew June was going to be a problem and
I am not afraid to wait again until I start to find a
bit of rhythm and momentum. I'm doing average
work at the moment and Todays options are just
examples of that. They might all win but nothing
gives me a very confident feel so I will wait again.


S e r v i c e N e w s

Tommorow is the last day of June and it must be one
of the strangest months I've had running the service.
Traditionally it's not my best month of the year. It's
had some disruptions. Some have been known about
like moving house and Royal Ascot. Others were not
forseen such as some hideous summer weather and a
diagnosis of Cellulitus last week which has slowed me
down. Thats just about been beaten now and sorted in
time for July but it's added to a strange month where
I have also been trying to finish no worse than Level
on the account. With the Staked bets in June I have
done that and got through the month without losing.
Once the years figures are done not having June way
behind will be crucial. It's not superstition its timing.
June is a long tiring month when the schedule sucks
all the marrow from the bones. With disruptions it's
been hard to produce anything exceptional in June.
There is one day to go and I will try and find a bet
and then we can start July with all disruptions gone.



T h u r s d a y 's R e v i e w

Apologies again about the later message yesterday.
Partly down to waiting for the Noon Inspection at
Newcastle. Partly some indecision as well but I also
had two seperate very late computer crashes when
Thunder and Lightning struck hard in the last hour.
One of those messages I never had full control over.
It wasnt a disaster at all but it was toothless and one
that was correctly left unstaked and kept low key.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


D o n c a s t e r 2.00

This is a Fillies Maiden. Far too many unraced horses have
won this to bet DESERT SUNRISE with confidence and she
has to overcome Stall 2 as well. I looked at races here with 12 or more runners. Since 2011 horses drawn 1-2 only had a 0-43 record and go back to 2010 and that became a 1-70 record. DESERT SUNRISE's draw is unhelpful. I suppose in
his favour is the non runner and more may come out. I'd be
happier with a high drawn unraced horse like MARCH 5/1



M u s s e l b u r g h 2.10

7/2 Fine Altomis, 9/2 Athletic, 5/1 Daddy Warbucks
11/2 Hikma, 6/1 Divine Success, 20/1 Captain Baldwin
Tresabella.

This is a 3yo handicap over a Mile. I couldnt find any
3yo winners like FINE ALTOMIS who is dropping in
trip from 11f to 8f well beaten last time especially as
he has no backclass. The question is whether there's a
decent profile against him in a messy small field. The
outsiders CAPTAIN BALDWIN and TRESABELLA
havent done enough. DIVINE SUCCESS has plenty to
prove well beaten over further last time.

Shortlist

* ATHLETIC - Profile fine but not proven on ground
* HIKMA - Neutral profile. Not sure what makes her tick
* I have had my eye on HIKMA and feel he can win soon
* DADDY WARBUCKS - There is a statistical case for him

Selection

HIKMA Win Bet 4/1
DADDY WARBUCKS Saver 7/2




D o n c a s t e r 2.30

* This is an all aged maiden over 6f
* I just prefered UPRISE over Art Form
* Especially from much classier connections



M u s s e l b u r g h 3.10

2/1 Dispol Diva, 11/4 Oddsmaker, 9/2 Cadgers Brig
6/1 Wind Shuffle, 12/1 Rock Of Deauville, 14/1 Grand Art
14/1 Isitcozimcool, 20/1 Decadence.

This is a 12f handicap for 0-65 rated horses. I detest
these races and I can be accused of getting my knickers
in a twist about fitness issues at times but I have to see
some of these as having questionable fitness. Included
in that is ODDSMAKER who is 11 and has raced once
in 309 days. I include DISPOL DIVA an exposed mare
with just one run in month. ISITCOZIMCOOL clearly
has not proven fitness. ROCK OF DEAUVILLE is in
the same boat. I'd question DECADENCE's class and I
dont see a 4yo filly like her. GRAND ART isnt running
well enough. In the end I could only shortlist 2 horses.

* WIND SHUFFLE - Profile fine but will he stay ?
* His form and breeding clues suggest he isnt certain to
* WIND SHUFFLE perhaps more of a saver role
* CADGERS BRIG - Not 100% right but as good as any

Selection

CADGERS BRIG




D o n c a s t e r 3.30

3/1 Van Der Art, 7/2 Chil The Kite, 5/1 Ghostwriting
7/1 Sardanapalus, 8/1 Jake´s Destiny, 10/1 Grey Mirage
10/1 Rio Grande, 14/1 Stellar Express
16/1 Nameitwhatyoulike.

* This is a 0-92 handicap over 8f for 3 year olds
* VAN DER ART is a filly that goes up in distance
* Fillies doing that with 7 + runs struggled
* The only winner had 5 runs that year and a recent run
* With 2 runs this year and 44 days off she looks unsafe
* JAKE´S DESTINY - Neutral profile
* NAMEITWHATYOULIKE ran over 6f this year
* None managed that with 13 + runs like him
* STELLAR EXPRESS - Little overexposed for a filly

S h o r t l i s t

* GHOSTWRITING - Just enough to shortlist
* CHIL THE KITE has 1 run this season
* All similar winners ran better than him last time
* I'd excuse that as it was a Grade 1 track first time out
* They also had 5-6 runs rather than 4
* CHILL THE KITE isnt far away and isnt a bad saver
* SARDANAPALUS - Just enough to shortlist
* GREY MIRAGE - Flopped when trying to win 3 in a row
* He had looked progressive before then
* His last run clearly damages his profile
* I'd keep him on side though there is a winner like him
* GREY MIRAGE could be the value here
* Take away his last run and he would be 5/2
* GREY MIRAGE around 8/1 seems fair


Selection

GREY MIRAGE 8/1 Win Bet
CHIL THE KITE 11/4 Saver Bet



M u s s e l b u r g h 4.55

8/13 Safe House, 13/8 Henry Bee, 16/1 Heart Beat Song
25/1 Laybach, 33/1 Dragon Spirit, 50/1 Stormont Bridge.

This is a 7f maiden for all aged horses. Interesting contest between SAFE HOUSE and HENRY BEE. Statistically the
profile of HENRY BEE is neutral. There were no horses
running with his profile and I would see him as acceptable
without calling it either way. SAFE HOUSE is far easier to
assess. She's a 3yo filly with 1 run last seen in a 2yo maiden and the record of identical types was just 1-19. So we have a 1-19 profile against a neutral one and given HENRY BEE is the bigger price I think I'd rather side with him to win.

Selection - HENRY BEE



F o l k e s t o n e 3.55

5/1 Poole Harbour, Arctic Lynx, 8/1 We Have A Dream
12/1 Lunar Deity, 12/1 Piscean, 14/1 Bless You
14/1 Close To The Edge, 14/1 Fair Value 14/1 Flynn´s Boy
16/1 Ginger Ted, 20/1 Yurituni.

This is a 6f handicap. Competetive race but I prefer one
or two over the others. I thought POOLE HARBOUR
was unsafe. He is a 3yo with only 5 career starts from a
maiden over 7f. I couldnt find many winners down from
a 7f maiden and none that won last time and my instinct
was to take him on. ARCTIC LYNX is an option but a
hard stable to catch right and as he comes up in distance
and has a months absence I couldnt match him. I wanted
to avoid SLIP SLIDING AWAY with one run this year.
There are winners that overcome that but I dont see why
I should rely on him to overcome that when 14lbs higher
than his best winning mark. CLOSE TO THE EDGE did
not offer me enough. She is an exposed 4yo filly and its
a long 29 days since she last won. I felt YURITUNI may
want another run this season. Neither FAIR VALUE or
BLESS YOU looked right both wanting another race.


* PISCEAN - Legitimate e/w chance but hard to read

* LUNAR DEITY - Lightly raced 3yo but profile fine
* I just wonder whether Stall One will prove too much

* WE HAVE A DREAM won the race last year
* His Course and Distance record is W W L 2 W W
* Solid and safe statistically he has lots of positives

Selection

WE HAVE A DREAM 7/1 +

Each Way



C h e s t e r 7.25

5/2 Al Baidaa, 7/2 Kenyan Cat, 7/2 Reyamour
9/1 Danube River, 11/1 Antigua Sunrise, 11/1 El Torbellino
14/1 Fork Handles.

* This is a Fillies Handicap over 10f
* AL BAIDAA comes from an 8f maiden
* All horses that won doing that were beaten under 4 lengths
* She was beaten 7 lengths and achieved slightly less
* KENYAN CAT has raced just once this year
* No horses did that when having 16 or more starts
* KENYAN CAT has 22 now and that worries me
* I'd want more runs this season
* EL TORBELLINO - Well beaten 4yo last time
* Statistically she is unsafe on her last race
* FORK HANDLES has the same problem
* Few 4 year olds like those two turn round big defeats
* ANTIGUA SUNRISE comes down from 12f
* Many did that aged 3-4-5 and when unexposed
* None managed it aged 6 or when as exposed
* Unproven here I can't match her to a winner
* DANUBE RIVER - Hasnt quite done enough
* REYAMOUR is 4 and from a 12f handicap
* Horses doing that with 1-2-3 runs that year were 4-7
* None however won last time like REYAMOUR
* None tried though so we dont have any similar profiles
* REYAMOUR surely has to be a big positive though

Selection

REYAMOUR 7/2


C h e s t e r 7.55

* This is a 7f handicap for 0-84 rated horses
* There is No current draw bias in this race
* My shortlist is below
* GLENRIDDING - MY KINGDOM -TAMAREEN
* GLENRIDDING each way a cautious choice

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