No Selection Today

No Mentions Today



T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

With only Ayr racing on the Flat I wasnt going
to bother today but I liked the 5f Amateur race
that ended the card. No plans to advise a bet in
the race. I do like DISTANT SUN though and I
feel he has a good chance. He is a little unsteady
in the market but that could change later and no
reason to think he wont be doing his best. I feel
he has a good chance of winning a very bad race.

Ayr 5.20

DISTANT SUN 7/1


That will wrap it up for this week. Been up-down
and at least we have been competetive and back
in the action after a quiet and frustrating June.


Tomorrow's Message

It will be short. I'm going to watch the Tennis
later and Mondays cards are not my favourite
so all I plan to do is cobble something together
and not get too worried about laborious previews.



T h u r s d a y 's R e v i e w

I was more than happy with results in yesterdays
message as the afternoon went on. I felt it found
a good few winners considering the weather and a
lot of changes but the only race to really matter
was ELEGANT GIRLs and she dissapointed when
coming only 4th. She drifted a bit before the race
and there was a horse bolting that delayed things
but thats barrel scraping for excuses and I might
have overestimated her chances. That took the
shine off what was an otherwise decent message.


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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


A y r 5.00

Deal Or No Deal At totepool.com
Amateur Riders´ Handicap (CLASS 6)
(4yo+ 0-60) 5f

9/2 Toffee Nose, 9/2 Two Turtle Doves
11/2 Glenlini, 13/2 Blue Noodles, 13/2 Distant Sun
8/1 Foreign Rhythm, 8/1 Ryedane, 14/1 Amno Dancer
14/1 Missile Attack, 25/1 Andrasta

This is a 5f Handicap for Amateur Riders. It is right up
my street much as there is not actually that many races
over 5f for Amateurs. There are only 13 of these races
so I have looked at these and all similar races run in July.

The Draw

* Look at all similar handicaps at Ayr with 9-14 runners.
* You find the Strongest record are horses drawn 3-10
* Since 2010 there has been 15 similar races
* Horses drawn 1-2 are 0-25 in these races
* Horses drawn 11 or more are 1-27 in these races
* Horses drawn 3-10 won 14 races and a middle draw is a help
* I would not rule out any stalls but 3-10 is best

* There are 116 similar low grade class 6 handicaps in July
* TOFFEE NOSE has 1 run this season
* Only 4 of the 116 winners won with one run
* None were 5 year olds like him
* None aged 5 like him
* None his age and older were so lightly raced
* TOFFEE NOSE is unorthox aged 5 with 7 runs
* He is simply nowhere near typical of a winner

* GLENLINI has similar issues aged 6 with just 7 runs
* That is very unorthox and she has had training problems
* GLENLINI is a mare and drops from a 6f race
* I looked at all mares that won doing that
* None were as inexperienced as she is
* None managed it with just 1-2-3 runs that year
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5-6 runs that year were just 1-120
* None were aged 5 or more like her
* She is another with an untypical profile
* GLENLINI may also want faster ground and is rejected

* FOREIGN RHYTHM is also a mare down from 6f
* None managed that with just 1-2-3 runs that year
* There are many aspects of her profile that I dislike
* FOREIGN RHYTHM is Drawn 1 and that wont help
* She is a mare absent 41 days and a 7yo as well
* FOREIGN RHYTHM looks unsafe to me


* RYEDANE drops from 7f to 5f when a 10 year old
* No horse has managed that anywhere near as old
* I wouldnt see him as safe and I dont fancy him

I thought it interesting BLUE NOODLES has won 4
races but all over further. He hasnt won at 5f yet and
having already won at a Mile there must be a chance
he finds this 5f too sharp. Last time out he did race
at 5f at Beverley staying on into 3rd place in a weak
race. What I find interesting is that the 5f at Ayr is
over 3.5 seconds faster to race over. The Beverley
distance is far stiffer and uphill and he will not have
anywhere near as much time to stay on. This is also
an Amateur Riders race and he wont have powerfull
jockeyship to help him out. He has an inexperienced
rider who has never ridden a winner before. I would
be surprised if he can cope with 5f on a flat track in
an Amateur riders race when it is over 3.5f seconds
faster than his last run and BLUE NOODLES is out.

* ANDRASTA isnt running well enough
* MISSILE ATTACK didnt do enough last time
* AMNO DANCER is an exposed 5yo
* Worries me he has no backclass
* He has never been out of a Class 5 race yet
* He also lacks a recent run as well
* My angles tell me a 31 day absence is too much
* Too much for an exposed horses with no backclass

* TWO TURTLE DOVES is an exposed 6yo mare
* Not a bad overall profile and I would shortlist her
* I just wonder if this 5f may be a bit sharp for her

Selection

DISTANT SUN

Distant Sun is 8 but many his age have won and 3
managed it in Amateur races. His recent run swings
it as he is running well and is well raced this season.
He is comfortably the fittest horse and has won at
Ayr before. I think there are holes in many of the
opposition and around 6/1 I fancy DISTANT SUN.


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