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T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

Some seriously big fields today and many races are just out of bounds given the competetiveness of the racing. I have found several races to preview but just 5 races I wanted to stake and these races are full of bigger priced horses and are listed below.

Selections at 10/1 14/1 9/4 12/1 and 9/1 today admittedly we have second bets in most of the races today so I think its far from certain we can finish in front but at these prices I think its a better portfolio than betting shorter priced options.

Warwick 2.10

£6 DARING DAMSEL 10/1 Win Bet
£4 HIGH FIVE PRINCE 3/1 Place Bet


Southwell 3.00

£4 Each Way CAPE ALEX 14/1
£2 Win PUGNACIOUS 4/1


Bangor 4.20

£10 Win SHE RANKS ME 9/4

Southwell 5.00

£4 Win PRINCE OF PASSION 12/1
£6 Win BUNCE 5/1

Warwick 5.45

£4 Each Way EASTERN MAGIC 9/1
£2 Saver JOSIE´S DREAM 7/1


I am risking DARING DAMSEL in the 2.10 Warwick as
I hope she will lead and steal a march. I am not confident
in this race. She is up for sale and has been dissapointing and I am weak with the Place bet on High Five Prince so I wont be surprised if I go behind here but at 10/1 she is worth a bet as she is capable of more than she's shown.


Its fair to say CAPE ALEX requires a leap of faith here
but she hasnt done much wrong and has been campaigned
in a way that hasnt allowed her to show her best. I think
she has a great chance at a great price which also allows
us a cheap saver as well and she is my best bet today.


I hope SHE RANKS ME wins at Bangor as the favourite
fails a 0-91 stat coming from a bumper. Dont assume its
clear cut. That 0-91 stat isn't as good as it sounds so it is more than likely the favourite wins but its good practice to bet horses that win Novice Hurdles against those that won Bumpers last time and thats why she is a bet today.


I've split PRINCE OF PASSION 12/1 and BUNCE 5/1
in this 6f handicap. More than possible I have missed
something here and both are unproven on Fibresand as
well so its not going to be easy to win this race but the
pair of them were easily best profiles and good prices.


In the 5.45 I have a favourite with a profile that leaves
me cold. If it wins I will be embarrased but I have been
bounced into picking EASTERN MAGIC 9/1 each way
with JOSIE´S DREAM as a saver more because I want
to oppose the favourite than because either had solid
profiles. I have to oppose the favourite but unsure if
I have the best choice of alternative bet but I hope so.



W e d n e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

I don't think it was easy on the eye yesterday with a handful of selections spaced out between smaller non commital races but it was a dangerous day and I had to play it like that and I think the important thing was it was another winning message. There were 5 races I staked and 3 of these profitable. We had £50 of stakes and returned about £65.25 and given that it was a day I would have been happy to survive without a loss I feel it was a good solid message that coped with a difficult agenda.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


W a r w i c k 2.10

9/2 Future Wonder, 6/1 Altona, 7/1 Camrock Star
7/1 Daring Damsel, 8/1 Ironically 9/1 Friendsinlowplaces
10/1 High Five Prince12/1 Supreme Rock, 12/1 Uncle Roger
25/1 Glaisdale, 25/1 Lady Romanza, 33/1 Loyal Master.

* This is a 3yo seller over an extended 10f
* There are about 45 similar races at this time of year
* I think you want a high draw in this race
* I looked at all races here with 10 + runners
* The last 4 winners were drawn 12 17 10 16
* You can low if you get a fast start otherwise not
* All recent winners were drawn in the folowing stalls
* 12 17 10 16 4 10 1 15 1 11 9 1 9 10 1 7 7
* In races with 12 + runners 11 of the 12 came from stall 6 +
* The only one that didnt was thrown in and won his next 2
* FRIENDSINLOWPLACES - Not keen on his draw in stall 2
* Hate the fact he comes here thrashed over hurdles
* LADY ROMANZA is rejected for the same 2 reasons
* ALTONA - Opposing her as a filly absent 114 days
* GLAISDALE looks too inexperienced
* LOYAL MASTER isnt running well enough
* SUPREME ROCK - I dont see a strong case for him
* UNCLE ROGER comes from a Mile
* He isnt certain to stay this far on soft
* His Sire and Dam never raced beyond 7f
* His sires longest winning offspring is 9f 149 yards
* UNCLE ROGER's profile is only average anyway
* CAMROCK STAR is a bit exposed to come from 8f
* Only 1 filly did that with 13 + runs
* That winner ran better than her last time
* IRONICALLY is a filly from a 12f race
* 3 winning fillies did that but all had 6 + runs that year
* IRONICALLY only has 4 runs this season
* None came from handicaps either like her
* I think IRONICALLY is beatable

S h o r t l i s t

* FUTURE WONDER is another filly from 12f
* We know similar fillies had 6 + runs that season
* FUTURE WONDER has 5 runs just a bit short
* She is one run short but respected

* DARING DAMSEL is hard to read
* I can't match her to a winner but no strong objections

* HIGH FIVE PRINCE - Definate positives about him
* Against him is a lack of backclass
* And the fact he is one of the worst weighted horses

Selection

£5 DARING DAMSEL 10/1 Win Bet
£5 HIGH FIVE PRINCE 3/1 Place Bet



S o u t h w e l l 2.30

I can't do this 5f maiden justice as there are no 5f maidens for 3 year olds run at this time of year. None at all so just impossible to do. The another annoying factor is the Draw bias as its switching between high and low and its obvious at the moment that you can win from anywhere. If I have to guess I would probably avoid Place That Face as a filly with a long break and Bang Tidy also short of runs this season. I would have gone with ART FORM and ELEGANT GIRL and probably had ART FORM to win to half stakes and the other half on ELEGANT GIRL to place in a split stake.


W a r w i c k 2.40


This Nuresry is far too difficult. My main negatives were
African Oil who has the worst draw and Another Claret a
horse from 5f and unsafe. These don't open the race well
enough though. SAINT JEROME and DANZ CHOICE
have stronger chances but I didnt feel I could sort this out with others at bigger prices also with reasonable chances.


S o u t h w e l l 3.00

11/4 Stag Hill, 4/1 Astroscarlet, 11/2 Pugnacious
13/2 Nowdoro, 17/2 Smart Affair, 12/1 Dewala
16/1 Cape Alex, 16/1 Medieval Bishop, 16/1 Yogic Flyer
20/1 There´s No Rules, Kian´s Joy, 50/1 Miss Mohawk.

This is a 3yo handicap over 12f. Not many of these races
in such a low grade. When you have a Sylvester Kirk horse
thats favourite with a 0-19 career start and no form on the
surface it's hard to go with him. I would not have gone with DEWALA absent so long. SMART AFFAIR doesnt interest
me and controversial as it sounds thats a bad draw even for
a 12f race. ASTROSCARLET is not well drawn either and
I am opposing him as I think there is a legitimate stamina
doubt at this track and his sires runners at Southwell have a 0-24 record so far. No negative but those factors worry me. MEDIEVAL BISHOP is far from certain to stay and there is more than enough doubt on his sire stats to question that. The above horse are avoidable. I thought NOWDORO has a chance and has solid Sire stats. I thought STAG HILL did enough to be considered for a place bet and if I split staked the race may have put him in that role. PUGNACIOUS is entitled to be considered alongside NOWDORO as one of the more likely winners. I do not really have the evidence to be sure. PUGNACIOUS looks one of the least risky but I'm drawn to CAPE ALEX most of all. I can find a winner like her. She's had some solid excuses lately having taken radical steps up and down in distance. This is a well bred horse that wasnt cheap and I suspect shes well treated.

Selection

£4 Each Way CAPE ALEX 16/1
£2 Win PUGNACIOUS 4/1



W a r w i c k 3.10

5/4 Magique, 5/1 Iberis, 6/1 Maisie´s Moon
7/1 Princess Patsky, 7/1 Tight Fit, 10/1 Close Together
12/1 Diletta Tommasa, 40/1 Fiance Fiasco, Sand Orchid.

This is a 2yo maiden over 7f for fillies. Given a choice I
would rather avoid the unraced horses especially on soft
ground. DILETTA TOMMASA is rejected on her debut
from the worst draw. MAISIE´S MOON is also unraced
and overlooked. There is a case for IBERIS each way if
you want the burglary route but MAGIQUE has a better
profile and is much more typical of the type winning a
race like this and having needed her first run I think we
should expect MAGIQUE to win at an unbackable price.



S o u t h w e l l 3.30

5/2 Oscars Journey, 11/4 Hoofalong, 3/1 Max The Machine
10/1 Smart Spender, 12/1 Scarlet Spirit, 14/1 Con Leche
14/1 Robyn, 20/1 Yorkshireman, 33/1 Solvanna.

This is a 2yo maiden over 5f. Whilst he might well win I
wasn't sold on HOOFALONG. His profile is nothing more
than average and the frame of the race suggests its worth
considering an each way alternative. I dont feel anything
is safe but the split stake win-place bet looks an option. I think MAX THE MACHINE is worth a place bet around
4/5 with a win bet on OSCARS JORUNEY at 11/4 and It
seems a fair suggestion with a lot of safety attached to it.




W a r w i c k 4.10

11/4 Herbalist, 3/1 Mission Approved, 11/2 Cape Of Hope
12/1 Ready, 16/1 Lambert Pen, 16/1 Veeraya, 25/1 Avatar Star 25/1 Harwoods Star, 33/1 Ebony Roc, 33/1 Gracious George 33/1 Mr Vendman, 40/1 Snowy Dawn.

This is a 7f maiden for Male 2 year olds. Not many have
a strong chance here but it requires a guess given the lack
of evidence available. I want to oppose HERBALIST for
just the one reason and thats his draw in stall one.

* Since 2010 there are 35 races here with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 1 had a 0-30 record
* Horses drawn 2 had a 1-34 record

It's not a brilliant reason but it is the worst draw and there is not enough in his profile to ignore it. AVATAR STAR and HARWOODS STAR should improve but they have to.
MISSION APPROVED looks a reasonable option but the
ground has to be the worry with him. CAPE OF HOPE's
probably the one to be on. He was fancied in a warm race
on his debut and there is every chance he was given quite
a low key introduction. He will improve a lot from that.
My pick is CAPE OF HOPE but I'd like him better in an
each way double and I considered MISSION APPROVED
as a place bet around 4/5 splitting stakes. I will leave the choice of bet up to you but CAPE OF HOPE is the pick.



B a n g o r 4.20

7/4 Too Generous, 9/4 She Ranks Me, 9/2 Hannah Jacques
7/1 Glenora Gale, 6/1 Hidden Identity, 33/1 Realta Mo Croi
50/1 At Some Stage.

This is a mares novices hurdle and there is one interesting
factor in this race and thats TOO GENEROUS who is a 4yo
and who comes from a Bumper 32 days ago. She is fancied
and clearly has ability and might win but I looked at horses like her at this time of year and I uncovered the following.

* Mares Novice Hurdles
* Run between May and November
* Any Distance
* Horses aged 4 from Bumpers
* Running within 10 weeks
* Similar horses had a 0-91 record
* TOO GENEROUS fails that statistic


It wont surprise me if TOO GENEROUS beats that stat
as many trying it were big prices but on the other hand
it was over a 7 month period and at every and any trip
so I would far rather go with SHE RANKS ME instead.

Selection

£10 SHE RANKS ME 9/4


S o u t h w e l l 4.30

* NO DOMINION has a decent profile with 1 doubt
* We don't know if he will like the surface
* LADY BELLATRIX and BITAPHON should do
* Neither impressed on profile though
* NO DOMINION is the more likely winner for me
* I dont feel its a race I should get involved with



S o u t h w e l l 5.00

5/1 Half A Billion, 5/1 Strong Man, 5/1 Waking Warrior
6/1 Only Ten Per Cent, 7/1 Bunce, 10/1 Bella Ophelia
10/1 Jinker Noble, 10/1 Prince Of Passion
14/1 Victorian Bounty, Whisky Bravo, 20/1 Mazovian
25/1 Great Charm.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-75 rated horses
* VICTORIAN BOUNTY - I wanted more runs this season
* BELLA OPHELIA - Flaws in her profile
* HALF A BILLION - Only an average profile
* MAZOVIAN - Cant make a case for him
* ONLY TEN PER CENT - I cant rule him out here
* I'd much rather have a recent race though
* Plenty of weight as well and he isnt safe enough

S h o r t l i s t

* STRONG MAN - Shortlistable but no good thing
* He has no form here but his sire had a W W W record here
* Biggest worry for me is a lack of backclass
* WAKING WARRIOR - Not easy to read at all
* Enough to shortlist but holes in his profile
* PRINCE OF PASSION - I liked his profile
* Thought it was solid and only the surface is a doubt
* Sire stats dont help to throw light on that
* At the prices I'd give him the benefit of the doubt
* BUNCE has the same comments really
* I liked his profile a lot - just unproven on the surface

Selection

£4 Win PRINCE OF PASSION 12/1
£6 Win BUNCE 5/1




S o u t h w e l l 5.30

This is a difficult Mile Handicap. I had several negatives I wanted to oppose like MUDHISH and LAYLAS KING. Its
a race that could come down to how the horses with longer
absences or just one run in several weeks get on. I was not
too excited about the race as running my angles I found 2
I could shortlist but both were at the head of the market.

Shortlist

* SAABOOG - TIRADITO




W a r w i c k 5.45

5/1 Quiet Route, 6/1 Josie´s Dream, 7/1 Eastern Magic
8/1 Arch Event, 8/1 Tijori, 9/1 Captain Oats, 10/1 Baan
10/1 Inside Knowledge, 10/1 Taroum, 10/1 Waldsee
12/1 Into The Wind, 16/1 Princesse Fleur, Denison Flyer
33/1 Bold Identity.

This is an Amateur Riders Handicap just short of 15f. It's
not a good trends race as there are hardly any similar races for Amateur riders. If we look at all low grade handicaps at 14f 15f and 16f for all jockeys there is a large sample size. Horses like QUIET ROUTE from both maidens and from races over a Mile or shorter have awful records. Horses to come from maidens like QUIET ROUTE had a poor 3-180 record and none of them came from 10f or shorter. He's a very weak favourite for me win lose of draw. There rest of these are not easy to seperate. I felt JOSIE´S DREAM and EASTERN MAGIC has the strongest profiles of the rest.

£4 Each Way EASTERN MAGIC 9/1
£2 Saver JOSIE´S DREAM 7/1


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