No Selection Today


T o d a y 's O p t i o n s


We are about to switch codes and thats normally the time of year we make some changes and I am definately going to do that in the next couple of weeks. There are 13 days left of the flat Turf season and by the finish there will be some structural changes in the service to keep
things fresh and close down some of the weaker areas. Today I have left Bangor alone and have had a run through of Leicester and Redcar.

Its Heavy or Soft ground everywhere. We have lost the 12.40pm race with a non runner which now leaves 10 limited previews. Its a simple message with 9 selections from 10 races and two bets staked but I should have winners and should be thereabouts in many races. Not a stand out bet. My hands are tied in several races and my aim here
is to try and nick a profit from the entire message. I could conjour up any number of each way doubles if I needed to but I'd rather not do that. A Mundane Monday but It should be a competetive message.



S a t u r d a y 's R e v i e w

Looking back at Saturdays message it started dynamically with 3 quick winners two of which were big prices. After that it folded tamely. I felt the middle of the message was wobbly and said so but dissapointed that it collpased a bit. That said the early winners got us some way ahead and it was a long way from a bad message. When the main bet goes down it's hard to be too positive but STEPS and CAPTAIN DUNNE were both big priced horses and could hardly be seen as probable winners. It felt to me a better message than it was probably recieved. After all despite
lots of previews I only staked in 5 races and we had a 7/1 winners that was enough to cover stakes on all 5 bets. We had another winner and a place as well from these 5 staked bets not bad at all. It suggests the message was probably too long. Carlito Brigante flopped and that may well be down to having too hard a recent race which was something I
didn't anticipate. I dont think it was a bad message but it never really reflected the fact that the best 5 options did well and that its annoying.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S

L e i c e s t e r 12.50

7/2 Bougaloo, 9/2 Poetic Princess, 11/2 Marguerite St Just
6/1 Intrigo, 17/2 Equitissa, 9/1 Canadian Red, 10/1 Amelia Jay 12/1 Sakhee´s Ichigou, 14/1 Missing Agent, 20/1 Beautifulwildthing, 20/1 Poetic Star, 20/1 Sojoum.

This is a 7f Nursery and not easy to solve especially without any draw advantage and a race that has been abandoned many times before leading to gaps in the history. I have to report a statistic in this race that is quite interesting. In this Leicester nursery horses from a maiden with 3 runs have an worrying 0-57 record. Today we
have Beautifulwildthing - Equitissa - Canadian Red - Poetic Sta all failing that and I would be against these. I looked at fillies with long abences and none were like MARGUERITE ST JUST from a Nursery and I dont fancy her 83 days off the track. Not persuaded by SAKHEE´S ICHIGOU from an Auction maiden. I looked at all horses from 7f nurseries and found none of them won when having 9 or more career runs which is an issue for MISSING AGENT who misses the shortlist. BOUGALOO isn't safe despite a recent race.
You can interpret his last run as leaving him well handicapped as he split some high rated horses in a Novice race. There was only a small field though and he probably was flattered. He probably is well treated but you couldn't fancy him on his other runs and he's risky betting him on the back of only a 4 runner conditions race.

Shortlist

* POETIC PRINCESS - There is nothing special about her profile
* I found a filly absent a month with 9 + runs
* Only 1 though who had far less weight and didnt come from 7f
* SOJOUM - Unlike any winners but a recent run will help
* AMELIA JAY - One of the bestprofiles in the race
* Problem here is the inexperienced stables 1-40 career record
* INTRIGO - One of best profiles but will he handle ground ?

Selection

INTRIGO 6/1 Win Bet

SOJOUM 5/2 Place Bet





L e i c e s t e r 1.20

This is a trappy fillies maiden throwing up three unraced horses and there looks to be about half the field unfancied. History has shown in this race unraced horses are only 1-63 and that would put me off Ningbo Express- Miss Avonbridge -Camilla De Ross. I wouldnt rule out an unraced winner at all its just this race has usually gone to experience. The horses that have ran before do not offer strong profiles. DEWI CHINTA is no worse than any of
them and she is my token guess in the race each way if there are 8 runners and win if there are not but not a strong view here.

Selection - DEWI CHINTA 3/1 (Each Way if 8 run otherwise win)



R e d c a r 1.40

13/8 Disclaimer, 7/2 Backstage Tour, 7/2 Gods Gift
13/2 Oakham, 8/1 Borodino, 10/1 Train Hard, 33/1 Distant Sunrise.

This is a 9f maiden for 2 year olds and I suspect a two horse race. It wont surprise me if either DISCLAIMER or BACKSTAGE TOUR won. Looking at their profiles DISCLAIMER has had 3 more races without winning and the slight edge is for BACKSTAGE TOUR as the safer profile. As he is the bigger price as well I will side with him but wafer thin margins here and he doesnt excite me as a bet.

Selection - BACKSTAGE TOUR 9/4 +



L e i c e s t e r 1.50

9/4 Silca´s Dream, 3/1 Exotic Guest, 5/1 Moe´s Place
7/1 Barbs Princess, 7/1 Robyn, 9/1 Betzyoucan, 10/1 Mont Signal 25/1 Ocean Power, 25/1 Paddy Burke.

This is a 2yo maiden over 6f. What we have here are two decent profiles in EXOTIC GUEST and SILCA´S DREAM both positives and looking to fight this out. There may well be unobvious dangers lurking but Moe's Place and Mont Signal will find it hard to condede experience to these two horses and Betzyoucan has to prove she can handle the ground. I dont see a strong case for opposing the
two main runners. If money came for Barbs Princess she would be a danger but I think one of the market leaders will win. Its not easy to split these. Given profiles and prices I will take an anti sickness tablet before suggesting EXOTIC GUEST Each Way at 9/4 or more.

Selection

EXOTIC GUEST - Each Way 9/4



R e d c a r 2.10

3/1 Frederickthegreat, 100/30 Auto Mac, 7/2 Barathea Dancer
11/2 Gangsterbanksters, 17/2 Petrocelli, 12/1 Dancing Paddy
12/1 Darrow, 18/1 Urbonite, 20/1 Bertie Blu Boy, 33/1 Charity Fair.

This is a dangerous 10f selling race and I say that because there are no horses allowed to run aged 6 or more so this is not typical of a normal seller. I didnt want PETROCELLI down from a 2m race. I see some weakness in FREDERICKTHEGREAT as a 3yo going up in distance having had just 5 runs this season. DARROW didnt do enough last time. URBONITE and DANCING PADDY are from the same stable and neither have shown enough to appeal yet as inexperienced types. I dont like BERTIE BLU BOY's absence. It is not easy to see GANGSTERBANKSTERS putting to miserable runs behind him. I prefer AUTO MAC and BARATHEA DANCER.

Selection

BARATHEA DANCER 9/2 Win Bet

AUTO MAC 3/1 Saver Bet




L e i c e s t e r 2.20

9/4 Shamaal Nibras, 7/2 Toto Skyllachy, 9/2 Capaill Liath
6/1 Osteopathic Remedy, 7/1 Weapon Of Choice
8/1 Atlantic Sport, 14/1 Justonefortheroad.

I dont like this race as it is a Class 2 handicap with a small field and unlike most Class 2 handicaps. In the past this 8f Leicester race has been dominated by 3 and 4 year olds and horses these ages have won 14 of the 15 renewals of this race. That said this year we only have a small number of 3-4 year olds and this year they are outnumbered in a race where in the past they had more runners than older horses in many years. That tells me I should
not assume older horses cant win. SHAMAAL NIBRAS is a 3yo
but he comes up in distance and from a Conditions race and its not a safe profile and no 3yo has won a similar race like it during October or November. CAPAILL LIATH is slightly more orthadox but has a career high mark and a 0-11 record in this class and is not solid statistically either. With WEAPON OF CHOICE facing a big absence as the only other younger horse the older horses look to have a stronger hand this year. OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY falls short and isnt like a winner. If dont intend to get involved in
this race as my selection flies in the face of what has happened in the past but I felt ATLANTIC SPORT had the most to offer and I would make ATLANTIC SPORT the selection in a messy race.

Selection - ATLANTIC SPORT



L e i c e s t e r 2.50

11/2 Eastern Hills, 6/1 Desert Creek, 7/1 Shomberg,
7/1 Tunnager Grove, 10/1 Al´s Memory, 10/1 Caledonia Prince
10/1 Elusive Hawk, Hoppy´s Flyer, 12/1 Lindoro, 14/1 Hooligan Sean 16/1 Mazovian, 16/1 Ted´s Brother, 25/1 Fistful Of Dollars 25/1 Pelmanism, 25/1 Sovento, 33/1 Khajaaly, 33/1 Pull The Pin.

This 7f Amateur Riders race is a bit nasty as there are only 3 races like this at this time of year and its not a big enough sample size to deal with such a large field. You want a recent run in these races so I would avoid the many that havent had that and I want a horse that's
well raced this season. If you look at the three past winners there is no surprise that they were all exposed male horses that had at least 9 runs that season and that they all ran within the past fortnight and I would want the same for any selection here. If that happens again
then we should only consider EASTERN HILLS and LINDORO. The
big price about LINDORO is too big to ignore but EASTERN HILLS is the more likely winner and he also won this race back in 2010.

Selection

EASTERN HILLS 11/2 + Win Bet
LINDORO 14/1 + Win Bet



R e d c a r 3.10

11/8 Snooky, 7/2 Gladsome, 11/2 Miss Bunter, 17/2 Quan
14/1 Kuwait Star, 16/1 Ebony Express, 16/1 Miss Bossy Boots
18/1 Zilzie, 25/1 Copper To Gold, 28/1 Adam´s Ale, 28/1 Mrsb 33/1 Extol, 33/1 Imperial Bond, 33/1 Lady Bentinck, 33/1 Poppanella 50/1 Benidorm, 50/1 Kuraanda, 50/1 Peteron, 66/1 Bondi Beach Boy.

* This is an all aged maiden over 7f
* Huge field and some horriblly complicated issues
* SNOOKY only has 1 run this season
* Look at all these maidens and most winners doing that had 2-3 runs
* SNOOKY has 4 runs and I wanted fewer runs
* One winner did it (Ocean Bay 2011) but he came from a Listed race
* SNOOKY - I wanted at least 1 more run this season
* Unraced fillies are 0-50 in these races
* MISS BUNTER - COPPER TO GOLD fail that
* QUAN has only a weak average profile
* Jason Ward runs 3 and 4yo handicappers
* KUWAIT STAR is 3 and GLADSOME is 4 from his stable
* I prefer GLADSOME of the pair but I have one worry
* These horses are drawn 2 and 3
* I looked at Redcar races with 10 + runners
* The last 8 winners were all drawn 8 or higher
* 14 of the last 15 winners were drawn 8 or higher
* Neither KUWAIT STAR or GLADSOME are drawn well
* EBONY EXPRESS is unraced and I have to consider him
* He avoids negatives and every other horse has them
* Given all the issues involved the negatives and the risks -
* I came down on the side of KUWAIT STAR each way at 14/1

Selection

£5 Each Way KUWAIT STAR 14/1 Each Way

I dont like his draw - and I dont fancy him much - but there are the positives to consider. I dont fancy any of his rivals either, This is a big drop in class. There is every chance he went off too fast on his last run at Wolverhampton. That was an extended 9f and I'm quite
happy to believe he didnt stay an extended 9f being out of a 5f-6f sprinter. He was eased heavily once beaten last time. A run only 4 days ago may or may not help but I suppose the most attractive thing about him is his price as there are not many that can win.




L e i c e s t e r 3.20

I've never liked this 7f claimer as its restricted to only 3-4 year olds and you can not apply normal claiming race statistics to this race. Besides that there isnt a strong draw advantage and both ages do score well and dont have any advantages over the other. There are potentially 7 winners as far as I can see. Rigolleto wouldnt be first
choice having just downgraded stables cheaply. Ficelle is the only one of the main runners going up in distance and I was not sold on her either. I don't want Lady Layla a 3yo filly well beaten last time out and I felt the same about Liliargh as well. I'm shortlisting three.

* BARISTA - Shortlisted but stable are 1796 days without a winner !
* LLEWELLYN - Looks a solid runner
* ETERNAL GIFT - could be his best trip and C+D winner



L e i c e s t e r 4.20

3/1 Glossy Posse, 100/30 Bell´arte, 4/1 Laughing Rock
17/2 Slipstream Angel, 12/1 Otto The First 12/1 Tiger´s Home 16/1 See And Be Seen, 20/1 Kryena´s Rose 20/1 Plexolini 25/1 Stupenda.

This is a 7f Nursery and division 2 of the 12.50pm race so the same stats apply. The best one that in this Leicester nursery horses from a maiden with 3 runs have an worrying 0-57 record. Check the 12.50 result to see is that stat has worked out or not but I am going to be against these types so BELL´ARTE and SEE AND BE SEEN have to go. I had a look at once raced LAUGHING ROCK and found the issue was complicated. She is inexperienced and throw in the fact
she has 7 weeks absence and only comes from a selling race and a small stable I decided she fell short of being safe enough. There are fitness doubts with OTTO THE FIRST and TIGER´S HOME as well. SLIPSTREAM ANGEL wasnt far away but the bottom line is I needed a better last run for a horse well beaten last time or that she came from a higher class of race and she just fell a bit short.

* GLOSSY POSSE - Probably has the strongest chance

Selection

£10 Win GLOSSY POSSE 7/4

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