No Selection Today

No Mentions Today


T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

I haven't done a message on this Sunday for years so just
felt I would knock one together and see how it goes. The
Bath card is savage. I have done 4 races here but this isnt a statistical card with some unorthodox and unusual races.

I've ignored the last 3 handicaps as these races are over a distance that undermines my statistics. Kempton also has
4 previews in the Novice races but more than a fair share
of ambiguity there. Truth is both meetings offer average
racing and do demand that a lot of assumptions are made.

I havent staked any bets below. I don't feel its a day for
anything more than a slow serene Sunday stroll with the
previews just a guide and a bit of background in a few of
the races. It is there for anyone wanting a days betting
but plenty of dead ends and cul de sacs leave me feeling
we should leave todays message simply as just a guide.



S a t u r d a y 's R e v i e w

I think the message more than did itself justice yesterday
and in places it was highly impressive. We finished about
level from the four options we had. On the positive side
Strange Magic won easily to start us off and he made sure
we couldn't lose on the four bets. It was dissapointing that I didn't get another winner from the 4 bets to reward that message. I probably wasted a couple of bets looking for a big priced horse. The Options though broke level but the bottom of the message was quite impressive. There were
good winners at 4/1 15/2 and 11/4 as well and I felt that
we got the better of the day and deserved more than just
breaking level on the four bets. I think it won on points.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S



B a t h 1.30

13/8 Skytrain, 4/1 Keep The Dream
4/1 Silca´s Dream 14/1 Sarahmanda
25/1 Frans Hals.

We start off with a small field 5f maiden and I ran all the
profiles. SILCA´S DREAM was like a winner years ago but
I'd have prefered a slightly better last run and he wouldnt
be my first choice. SARAHMANDA has a weaker profile.
I don't see enough in FRANS HALS. I suspect this is down
to one of SKYTRAIN or KEEP THE DREAM. There is a
risk that KEEP THE DREAM may go for a handicap mark
today. His last run over 6f wasn't enough to tempt me and
of the pair I just prefered SKYTRAIN in a miserable race.


B a t h 2.00

7/2 Stunning View, 5/1 Burnham, 7/1 Madame St Clair
8/1 Twelve Strings, 10/1 Villa Royale
12/1 Sunny Future, 14/1 Cyrus Sod, 14/1 Oldrik
14/1 Tidal Run, 16/1 Highlife Dancer, 16/1 Jalors
25/1 Humungosaur, 25/1 Misk Khitaam.

I don't really want to do a statistical preview as this race is a 1m 5f handicap and there are hardly any comparable races at this time of year. Just a few comments about one or two things I noticed. Go back to 2005 and look at handicaps at this distance with 10 or more runners and you find only 15 races. Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 0-39 record though and its unsafe to bet these draws. TIDAL RUN - SUNNY FUTURE are rejected because of that as is CYRUS SOD from a worse draw. These races go to younger types so I'm ruling out 9yo OLDRIK. I want to oppose TWELVE STRINGS. He's twice been a beaten favourite in a 12f race. This is further and he is sired by Iffraj and none of his offsping have won over as far as this. In fact at 12f and more they are 0-57 and even at 11f and more thay are just 1-86 and I am going to leave him alone with that stamina doubt. MISK KHITAAM isn't running well enough. I dont like HUMUNGOSAUR beaten badly in a maiden last time after a huge downgrade in stable. HIGHLIFE DANCER doesn't appeal up from a 10f race so is rejected alongside VILLA ROYALE a 3yo filly facing a similar problem. JALORS looks vulnerable to an improver and I see him as an unlikely winner. They are my negatives
in the race. I think one of the following three might win. My problem with MADAME ST CLAIR is that she has 4 defeats in a row yet keeps getting put up in the weights as a punishment for her consistency. She has gone up as much
as 8lbs in four defeats and I think that may get her beaten.


Shortlist

* STUNNING VIEW - She has only 4 runs
* There are not enough similar races to judge that
* I looked at identical types in 12f 13f 14f races
* I found 2 winners just like her
* Both like her had just one run in months
* STUNNING VIEW - I like her profile

* BURNHAM has more substance but less improvement
* He is probably the more likely winner but a shorter price
* I think we should have a saver on him

Selection

STUNNING VIEW Win Bet 5/1
BURNHAM - Saver Bet 7/2




K e m p t o n 2.15

Not much I can say in this Juvenile Hurdle. I do like the
favourite FISHER but he is quite short and his penalty is
not a help and because of that and his price I would rather
have the split stake bet with a place bet on MCVICAR.


B a t h 2.30

4/1 Boonga Roogeta, 5/1 Ashkalara, 6/1 Elsie Bay
13/2 Kampai, 13/2 Merry Jaunt, 8/1 Gold Show
10/1 Out Of Nothing, 12/1 Eponastone
14/1 Broughtons Swinger, 14/1 Ryedale Lass
25/1 Lady Arabella, 33/1 Bov La Raconteuse.

This is a Fillies handicap over 10f and another race that
have very few comparable handicaps elsewhere so I don't
have a strong statistical view. Happy LADY ARABELLA
and BROUGHTONS SWINGER are underraced this season.
I doubt BOV LA RACONTEUSE did enough last time out.
I dont fancy OUT OF NOTHING as a 9yo with one race
since July. Not many of these fillies handicaps go to very
exposed types and I felt ASHKALARA was underaced this
year for a horse with 24 starts. I am against ELSIE BAY
as it is very bad practice to bet any horse here drawn one.
What few stats there are tell me to be very wary of any
horses coming from a Mile or shorter. GOLD SHOW is
doing that and also faces an absence and I felt that both
factors could combine to beat her. RYEDALE LASS ran
last night but didn't do enough for me. MERRY JAUNT
is a little unsafe and not convinced about her on a softer
surface and I felt the same about EPONASTONE as well.
I shortlist KAMPAI with a fair recent race and looking
well treated. A Recent run for BOONGA ROOGETA is
a help and I thought she could run very well in this even
if her draw is a little lower than I would ideally want.

Selection

KAMPAI 7/1 Win Bet
BOONGA ROOGETA 13/2 Saver



K e m p t o n 2.45

6/4 Sire De Grugy, 4/1 Polisky, 6/1 Grams And Ounces
6/1 Theodore Lamb, 10/1 Akula, 10/1 My Brother Sylvest
16/1 Faha, 20/1 Drumshambo, 25/1 Arbeo, 33/1 Rebel High
100/1 Aussie Man And Van.

This is a Beginners Chase over 2 miles. This Chase usually
falls to a seasonal debutant from hurdles and not many of
the past winners raced that year. SIRE DE GRUGY fits the
bill and looks the right type but he is short in the market. My problems with POLISKY aside from the fact he raced this season is the long drop in trip and the 87 day absence neither placing him in the position of being like a previous winner. With GRAMS AND OUNCES its the fact the only horses that won having raced this year managed to win on their last start and they had more backclass than he does. There is a case for GRAMS AND OUNCES each way and
that might be the sensible bet but statistically the likelier winner would be chasing debutant SIRE DE GRUGY.


B a t h 3.05

9/2 Queen´s Star, 11/2 Authentication, 11/2 Petaluma
6/1 Annaluna, 6/1 Filatore, 6/1 Maria Letizia
6/1 Somemothersdohavem, 14/1 Kaiser Wilhelm
16/1 Caphene.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 17f
* Marathin trip for 3 year olds on bad ground
* 8 renewals and it is the only race of its kind in October
* All 8 winners had between 7 and 13 runs
* They all had at least 4 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks
* They all came from handicaps
* SOMEMOTHERSDOHAVEM - more exposed than ideal
* Less scope than most and not a certain stayer
* CAPHENE - I see her short of runs
* MARIA LETIZIA has 5 runs
* With all 8 winners having at least 2 more I look elsewhere
* PETALUMA - Has plenty of positives to consider
* No winners came from a conditions race though
* Suggests to me he isnt well treated at the moment
* Not a good sign he has gone 11 runs without a win
* No winners dropped in trip to win either
* Not saying he's the wrong type but he isnt the right type
* QUEEN´S STAR is absent longer than every past winner
* I'd have liked another race as well
* KAISER WILHELM comes from a 12f race
* Three winners did that but all were females
* No males have done it and he lacks a recent run

Shortlist

* FILATORE - Hard to read winning last time
* The only horse that won again was a filly
* AUTHENTICATION is fine as a filly from 12f
* Statistically no problems as long as she stays
* On her pedigree there is a legitimate doubt about that
* ANNALUNA - Lots to like but won over hurdles last time
* Must be a doubt he comes via hurdles and none did
* It was after all 22f on heavy only 10 days ago
* That said she has no weight and is very fit as well

Selection

* ANNALUNA 7/2 Win Bet
* AUTHENTICATION 4/1 Saver Bet



K e m p t o n 3.20

2/1 Once More Dubai, 7/2 Princely Player
5/1 Spirit Of Shankly, 6/1 Roberto Pegasus, 8/1 Hawkhill
10/1 Polar Kite, 14/1 Zarzal, 20/1 Tuscan Gold.

This is a Listed Class Novice Hurdle. This race has never
gone to either an unraced horse or a seasonal debutant so
ROBERTO PEGASUS and POLAR KITE are eliminated
as unraced horses and ZARZAL out first time this season.
No past winners came from Bumpers so I cant assume it
is an issue but SPIRIT OF SHANKLY is a 4yo doing this
and I'd rather have hurdling experience. It might involve
ONCE MORE DUBAI and PRINCELY PLAYER. There
is a fair case for ONCE MORE DUBAI who has achieved
a high level on the flat. I am going to save on him but I
also like PRINCELY PLAYER who rated 137 should be
going very close here and he should also be considered.

Selection

PRINCELY PLAYER 3/1 + Win Bet
ONCE MORE DUBAI 11/4 Saver


K e m p t o n 5.30

6/4 Sky Watch, 5/1 Karinga Dancer, 5/1 Le Bec
6/1 Present View, 12/1 Shantou Breeze, Definite Chance
16/1 Up For An Oscar, 20/1 Glenwood Present
20/1 Tothemoonandback, 33/1 Xaarcet
40/1 Vinnie The Fish, 100/1 Twoways.

This is a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle. There looks to be 4 serious
runners. I cant match LE BEC as a 4yo from a Bumper and
reject him. There was 1 winner like SKY WATCH from 20
that tried as a 5yo hurdling debutant from a Bumper. Almost
a very good profile was KARINGA DANCER and I like him
but it was only the lack of Listed or Graded form prevents a very good profile. If we go purely on strike rates then I can argue the unraced 4yo PRESENT VIEW comes out best as
we have seen 4 of these win 2m 5f Hurdles like this. I think the best profiles are PRESENT VIEW- KARINGA DANCER
and I will have a saver on PRESENT VIEW around 5/1 with
an each way bet on KARINGA DANCER at 4/1 the main bet.

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