No Selection Today

No Mentions Today



I came very close to a bet today. I am having one
or two bets. The Only reason I havent had a bet is
because the Newcastle 4.15pm throws up a decent
bet but its a win and place bet and not everyone is
going to have the ability to get that bet on so that
is not fair and because of it I will leave it unstaked.


* Newcastle 4.15 - I am following the message
* Win Bet on Lucia Bay around evens
* Place bet on Goodluckin Lucy around 2/1


O t h e r O p t i o n s


Kempton 5.05 - Royal Acclamation 7/2
Kempton 5.35 - Kalokagathia 3/1
Kempton 7.35 - Replicator 11/2

I was looking at Win Bets and Each Way doubles
on a couple of these. I just felt they came up a bit
short but I wouldnt put anyone off some smaller
each way doubles or other stakes with these but I
have clearly run out of time so its your choice.




The message concentrates on seven Kempton previews this
evening. Because of the late start I have looked at a few bits and pieces at the National Hunt meetings. This is really just a complimentary bit of work as Kempton's had the majority of the time spent on it. A Little dissapointed I have so many races at Kempton with big shortlists. There are often reasons for this but usually the simple one is that Kempton's a highly competetive card and it is a lot harder than I had hoped for.

My strategy was throw the book at Kempton as I felt I had a
better chance there than the National Hunt. I like to think I get the better of Kemptom more than it does me but its been more than a match for me today. I know for certain I have been in a fight this evening and it's not going to be a message full of winners there as it's throws plenty of dilemmas my way.




No Match Bets Today



S t r o n g e s t S t a t i s t i c T o d a y

N e w c a s t l e 4.15

* Mares Maiden Hurdles
* Any Distance
* Run between the following Months
* December - January- Febuary - March - April
* May - June - July - August - September
* There are 120 of these races in these 10 months
* Horses from Bumpers have a horrible record
* They were just 1-245
* The only winner was Rate Of Knots at Towcester 2008
* She won on heavy ground at 16/1 in a mudbath over 19f
* I want to avoid horses from Bumpers
* This gives us too negatives
* ARIZONA RIVER - CHARLIE´S VIC
* It opens up other staking options
* My choice would be the following
* Win Bet LUCIA BAY around evens
* Place Bet on GOODLUKIN LUCY around 2/1




W e d n e s d a y ' s R e v i e w

I backed away from any bets yesterday and just used
the message to try and find a couple of winners on a
difficult day. I didn't quite manage that and it was not
a glowing success but what it did do was allow me the
chance to get rid of Mondays message and prepare a
bit for later in the week. That time does me far more
good than better results would have done yesterday.


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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S




N a t i o n a l H u n t


It is a long wait for Kempton and whilst I don't fancy the
National Hunt cards a few quick words may kill the time.



N e w c a s t l e 1.15

I did marginally prefer SOUTH LEINSTER but he is now
far shorter than this Racing Post price and given that the
forecast 6/4 favourite BRINDISI BREEZE is much bigger
I would argue there is more value in BRINDISI BREEZE.



W a r w i c k 2.25

WHAT AN OSCAR each way looks the best option




N e w c a s t l e 2.45

7/2 Eyre Square, 5/1 Allanard, 6/1 Morgan Be, 6/1 Rolecarr
6/1 Tyrone House, 8/1 Fabalu, Etxalar, 10/1 You Know Yourself 16/1 Categorical, 25/1 Minster Shadow, 25/1 Montoya´s Son.

* This is a 3m Handicap Chase.
* Just a couple of brief observations
* I looked at all similar races in January-Febuary
* TYRONE HOUSE - Not for me for a few reasons
* Not keen he won over 2m 5f with 1 run this season
* Not with a high weight and no Graded form
* Interesting his sire only has 2 winners beyond 2m 5f
* Both these came on Good to firm. Maybe a stamina doubt
* EYRE SQUARE - I think he is questionable as well
* No winners won over 4m and then won dropped back to 3m
* His 53 day absence doesnt help either
* I would avoid the above horses
* ALLANARD has a better profile
* Winning recently he must have a reasonably good chance
* I'd fancy him to beat Eyre Square in the match bet



N e w c a s t l e 3.15

3/1 Mahfal, 4/1 Phoenix Lady, 5/1 Funky Munky
5/1 Realignment, 6/1 Heather Glen, 7/1 Pyjama Game
16/1 Jewelled Dagger, 16/1 White Diamond
40/1 Arc Warrior, 40/1 Masra.

This is a 2m 4f Handicap hurdle. I've looked at all similar races for 4 year olds like MAHFAL that came from 2m races. There was a poor 1-48 record. The only winner was Helen Wood who won a 19f race in 2007. She was different and was a mare unlike MAHFAL and won last time and I felt MAHFAL had plenty to prove and looked opposable. I think there are several plausable alternatives. I had no problems with several of his main rivals all of who need to convince on one or two angles but who were generally a lot more solid than MAHFAL. Given the choice I'd see PYJAMA GAME as a big runner wanting to forgive him his last flow before Christmas. I will take a guess with him each way.

* REALIGNMENT - Rather be on him in the match bet v Mahfal
* PYJAMA GAME - Each Way



N e w c a s t l e 4.15

5/4 Lucia Bay, 4/1 Charlie´s Vic, 6/1 Arizona River
15/2 Erycina, 15/2 Goodlukin Lucy, 12/1 Florarossa
16/1 Royal Curtsy, Graceful Descent, 33/1 Mystic Echo
40/1 Overpriced, 50/1 Just Stripe, 50/1 Politelysed
66/1 Destiny Rules.

* This is a Mares maiden hurdle
* CHARLIE´S VIC - No winners came from Bumpers
* ARIZONA RIVER - No winners came from Bumpers
* ERYCINA - No negative but not sure she stays
* LUCIA BAY - She is an understandable favourite
* Statistically she isnt ideal from a 2m 4f handicap
* GOODLUKIN LUCY - I would shortlist her
* The statistical bet is GOODLUKIN LUCY e/w
* Tempted more by a safer split stake bet
* Win Bet LUCIA BAY around evens
* Place Bet on GOODLUKIN LUCY around 2/1






K e m p t o n 4.35

7/2 Storm Runner, 4/1 Qeethaara, 6/1 Karate, 10/1 Dichoh
12/1 Gallantry, 12/1 Isdaal, 14/1 Sabys Gem 16/1 Rezwaan
20/1 Gordy Bee, Pie Poudre, 20/1 Putin 25/1 Unbreak My Heart

* This is a Mile handicap for 0-59 rated horses
* PUTIN has a weak profile hammered over 2m
* I looked at exposed horses absent 100 + days
* These had a 0-79 record and I'd avoid them
* PIE POUDRE fails that and is rejected
* UNBREAK MY HEART fails that and is rejected
* SABYS GEM looks unsafe with a long absence
* Especially with just 5 runs and from a 5f race
* GORDY BEE looks a horse to avoid from 7f
* He does this with 44 days off and 1 run since June
* I see GORDY BEE as underraced this season
* Only 4 winners came from 12f or longer
* None were anywhere near as old as GALLANTRY
* GALLANTRY aged 10 well beaten last time isnt for me
* ISDAAL is a mare and down from 10f
* There were 7 winning mares down in distance
* They all had at least 14 runs and she has just 8
* ISDAAL doesnt offer me enough
* REZWAAN is an exposed 5yo down in distance
* He has Class 4 form and lacks a recent run
* I found 2 winners with that profile one male one femal
* Both had under 9st though and he has 9st 6lbs
* REZWAAN could be forgiven that and shortlisted
* Big doubt if he is in form though after a recent downgrade
* You have to be convinced his last run showed promise
* I am not convinced that it did
* KARATE is 4 and won last time out
* My problem with him is he lacks a recent run
* There were 4 year olds winning again absent 15 + days
* None however were exposed like him
* They were all lighter raced than he is
* It worries me for a horse like him who was lucky last time
* Throw in a 7lbs claimer and I have reservations

S h o r t l i s t

* DICHOH is 9 and comes from a seller
* Not a great profile but I did find one similar winner
* That winner did have 12lbs less weight

* STORM RUNNER is an unexposed 4yo from 8f
* He has a recent run and Class 4 form
* I found 1 winner and he is shortlistable
* There were many other winners with longer absences
* STORM RUNNER is a big runner but no banker

* QEETHAARA is hard to read
* She is an exposed mare that won last time
* There were 7 horses doing that finishing 2 3 4 4 6 8 9
* She is an 8yo mare as well which makes her unsafe
* She won at 40/1 last time so has to show it wasnt a fluke
* In her favour is she is very well handicapped

S e l e c t i o n

Theres clearly support for Sabys Gem who doesnt make
my shortlist. He may have ability and could prove better
than my stats imply but I have decided to take him on. I
don't have a cast iron alternative but QEETHAARA has
form last Summer easily good enough to take this and as
she's finally found some form she may be able to follow
up her recent win and she appeals with STORM RUNNER
a legitimate saver and thats how I'd play a messy race

QEETHAARA 9/2 + Win Bet

STORM RUNNER - Saver 11/4





K e m p t o n 5.05

4/1 Royal Acclamation, 9/2 Fearless Poet, 6/1 Jackie Love
6/1 Kyncraighe, 7/1 Bunkered Again, 8/1 Set To Go
12/1 Flow Chart, 16/1 Cara Carmela, 16/1 Magical Star
25/1 Rise To Glory, 33/1 Whats Your Story
50/1 Cavalry Guard, 66/1 Blazing Apostle.

This is a 7f handicap and a very low grade 0-51 race and
a confusing draw advantage doesn't help. I can not see a
case for CAVALRY GUARD or WHATS YOUR STORY.
BLAZING APOSTLE was beaten too far too recently to
be fanciable. I looked at mares like BUNKERED AGAIN
up in distance and these scored badly with under 13 runs
and she looks underraced. So does CARA CARMELA as
a mare from a 6f race. MAGICAL STAR has been absent
too long for a filly. I question SET TO GO's fitness too.
I dont see enough in RISE TO GLORY's last run to like.

* FEARLESS POET is 4 and comes from 8f
* I looked at similar horses with 9-12 runs
* I found 1 winner who had a lot less weight
* He also ran better last time as well
* Found winners with a few less runs and a few more
* Those with 9-12 runs like him not so good
* Makes him harder to read
* KYNCRAIGHE - 1 similar winner with less weight
* JACKIE LOVE - 4yo filly who ran well last time
* I found 1 similar winner but limited backclass and jockey
* FLOW CHART is an exposed 5yo from a 6f race
* Complicated profile with a very recent run
* I found 2 winners with this profile
* Both came from Claimers and sellers
* FLOW CHART comes from a handicap
* Shortlistable but complicated profile and hard to read
* ROYAL ACCLAMATION is an exposed 7yo
* He comes from a 7f handicap over 2 weeks ago
* I looked at similar horses with just Class 4 form
* I found 2 similar winners and he is fine
* ROYAL ACCLAMATION - Just about the best option

Selection - ROYAL ACCLAMATION 7/2





K e m p t o n 5.35

11/4 Kalokagathia, 7/2 Remix, 4/1 Ashdown Lad
4/1 Red Trump, Mister Mackenzie, 14/1 Fairway To Heaven
50/1 Yalding Dancer, 100/1 Fleeting Indian.

This is a maiden for all aged horses. Hard to know enough
about this race. We have unraced horses to consider. It's a
race for older horses as well but none run so it will run like a 3yo maiden which messes with my angles. RED TRUMP
is unraced from a powerful stable so must be considered. I
wouldn't rule out REMIX much as she is a little exposed as
a filly from a 2yo maiden and I couldnt match her to any
winners. ASHDOWN LAD is a nightmare to assess and the
upshort statistically is the only similar winners ran later in Febuary and with long absences. FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN
is unsafe being unraced but no negative. I wanted to have
one fewer runs for MISTER MACKENZIE to match him
to a winner but I see him as a positive and think he ought
to go very close. I never expected it'd be straight forward so the race demands that I have a guess.

S e l e c t i o n

KALOKAGATHIA

Horses like KALOKAGATHIA from 7f maidens with two
career starts and an absence did well. I find 8 similar types and they finished W W 3 W 5 W 6 W which strikes me as
an impressive profile and the 2010 winner of this maiden
shared it. KALOKAGATHIA split horses rated 73 and 76
last time out and thats enough to go very close.




K e m p t o n 6.05

3/1 Steady Gaze, 4/1 Unex Picasso, 9/2 Blackmore
9/2 Sunset Place, 6/1 First Rock, 10/1 Leyte Gulf
12/1 Opera Prince.

This is a 2m Handicap and a long way from my comfort
zone especially with a small field. Its more complicated
by the fact STEADY GAZE won easily two days ago and
looks very interesting because of that but no horses aged
as old as him managed to follow up very recent wins and
not enough tried to draw any conclusions about it. This
is a harder race. I looked at horses winning 12f handicaps
last time out and only 4 year olds managed this so I feel
I must avoid FIRST ROCK as a 6 year old. I have doubts
about SUNSET PLACE with just one run since last June
when coming up 4f in distance and having no backclass.
I see OPERA PRINCE as unimpressive and there has to
be a stamina doubt as his sire's only had a 14f winner so
far from his offspring. LEYTE GULF is ok but I'd like
a bit more backclass and he was a borderline decision so
does come with risk. BLACKMORE is an option but it
may be relevant the only winners like him did have less
weight. I thought UNEX PICASSO has a strong profile
and as a much younger horse had to be a threat as well.

Selection

I have no time for this race so having a guess based on
unsafe angles. That guess is UNEX PICASSO.





K e m p t o n 6.35

3/1 Rasheed, 4/1 Rocky Rebel, 11/2 Rowan Ridge
13/2 Switched Off, 8/1 Kames Park, 8/1 Sand Skier
10/1 Kidlat, 12/1 Bennelong, 12/1 Magicalmysterytour.

* This is a 12f handicap for 0-75 rated horses
* Not strong in these 12f races so keeping it short
* Several of these were hard to read
* SWITCHED OFF too unorthodox as lightly raced 7yo
* KIDLAT - Not quite right from 10f seller
* MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR - Age and absence worries
* SAND SKIER - Cant match him to any winners
* KAMES PARK - Not convinced down in distance
* I ran all profiles and came up with this shortlist
* ROWAN RIDGE - Hard to match from a seller
* BENNELONG - Neutral but dont assume he stays
* RASHEED - Hard to read and unsafe from 3yo handicap
* I certainly would have prefered a more recent run
* ROCKY REBEL - 4yo's winning maidens are fine

Selection

ROWAN RIDGE 7/1 Each Way

Not persuaded by any of these. I could make the best case
for Rocky Rebel but not keen on the stable or the recent
downgrade he has had. With a recent run ROWAN RIDGE
looked a better option each way to me. Statistically unsafe
but most are and must be one of the fittest horses here.



K e m p t o n 7.05

9/2 Whaileyy, 5/1 Earlsmedic, 11/2 Bandstand, 8/1 Dasho
8/1 Rylee Mooch, 8/1 Taajub, 10/1 Requisite, 10/1 Titus Gent 12/1 Lujeanie, 14/1 Clear Praise, 20/1 Evelyn May
25/1 Local Singer.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* There is a Draw bias over 6f here
* Go back to the stalls being renumbered last April
* Since then we've had 45 handicaps at 6f with 9 + runners
* 44 of the 45 winners were drawn between stalls 1 and 9
* Only 1 winner was drawn in stalls 10 or more
* That winner was slightly fortunate as well
* DASHO has the worst draw in stall 12
* Statistically he is reasonably ok despite a career high mark
* RYLEE MOOCH - Bad draw in stall 11
* He doesnt offer enough from a 5f race to overlook his draw
* TITUS GENT isnt well drawn in stall 10
* I cant find a winner like him from 5f aged 7 or more
* He doesnt have enough backclass to be matchable
* EVELYN MAY has to go as a mare absent 297 days
* REQUISITE is unsafe as a 7yo Mare
* No mares came from 8f like her or from Listed races
* LOCAL SINGER - Comes out badly well beaten last time
* LUJEANIE - Not a negative but others are better
* I found 1 winner like him with less weight
* He is on a Career high mark as well
* May just be vulnerable to lighter weighted horses

S h o r t l i s t

* BANDSTAND won a 6f handicap last time
* He is unorthodox for a 6yo doing that
* No last time winners aged 6 or more were like him
* None had under 21 career runs and he has just 11
* Not a negative but not like any winners
* CLEAR PRAISE has been heavily backed
* He is 5 and comes from 7f with 16 runs
* Looked at similar 5 year olds with 13-20 runs
* Those with Class 2 form and no recent run
* I found an encouraging 2-14 record
* Both winners however came from sellers and maidens
* Those like CLEAR PRAISE from handicaps are 0-11
* Happily shortlist him but there are flaws
* TAAJUB has a similar profile to Clear Praise
* He is also unsafe and recently downgraded yards
* WHAILEYY is 4 and comes from a 7f handicap
* He has Class 2 form and lacks a recent run
* I looked at similar 4 year olds with 7-12 runs
* I found a 1-17 record for similar horses
* That gets him shortlisted with an acceptable profile
* EARLSMEDIC is an exposd 7yo from 5f
* I found 1 similar winner in a 1-16 record
* Gets him shortlisted with an acceptable profile

S e l e c t i o n


WHAILEYY Win Bet 4/1
EARLSMEDIC Saver Bet 7/1



K e m p t o n 7.35

3/1 Rightcar, 5/1 Cut The Cackle, 11/2 Prince Namid
6/1 Replicator, 8/1 Demoiselle Bond, 8/1 Microlight
10/1 White Shift, 12/1 Mi Regalo, 16/1 Simple Rhythm
25/1 C´mon You Irons, 33/1 Fifth Auntie.

* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* There is a Draw bias over 6f here
* Go back to the stalls being renumbered last April
* Since then we've had 45 handicaps at 6f with 9 + runners
* 44 of the 45 winners were drawn between stalls 1 and 9
* Only 1 winner was drawn in stalls 10 or more
* That winner was slightly fortunate as well
* C´MON YOU IRONS has the worst draw in stall 11
* He has finished last in his last 4 races
* His profile isnt good enough
* DEMOISELLE BOND is not well drawn in stall 10
* She's a 4yo filly from a 6f handcap
* None like her had 7-12 runs
* DEMOISELLE BOND doesnt offer enough
* PRINCE NAMID - Very worried about his fitness
* He is 10 and has 1 run since last May
* Looked at all horses with a long absence between runs
* None were aged 6 or more like him
* From a 7f Claimer he isnt safe
* FIFTH AUNTIE doesnt offer enough
* MICROLIGHT is 4 and has 20 runs
* He also has limited backclass as well
* I ran his profile and found 2 winners
* Both ran within 7 days and he doesnt
* Both winners were beaten under 4 lengths last time
* MICROLIGHT wasnt and I feel there are better profiles
* MI REGALO is an unexposed 4yo from 6f
* I wanted a better last run from him
* He didnt do enough from a Class 6 handicap
* MI REGALO - there are better profiles
* SIMPLE RHYTHM is an exposed 6yo mare
* Overall I just felt she fell short
* Not a negative but I wanted a better last run
* WHITE SHIFT is an exposed 6yo mare
* She has a recent run in a 6f handicap
* I found 1 winner like her
* That winner came from a slightly better race
* WHITE SHIFT is respected
* RIGHTCAR is an exposed 5yo from 7f
* He has a recent run but only form in Class 5 races
* I found a winner like him but the backclass worries me
* CUT THE CACKLE is an exposed mare absent 50 days
* There are mares winning absent a month and more
* None were aged 6 or more like her
* CUT THE CACKLE is very well treated though
* She is back in form for the first time in 18 months
* CUT THE CACKLE has to be considered
* Statistically though there are problems
* REPLICATOR is an exposed 7yo
* He has Class 4 form and a recent run over 6f
* I found 2 similar winners and he is fine
* REPLICATOR has to be shortlisted
* I didnt fancy him at all last time
* He had a horrible draw in stall 11 over 6f here
* I explain earlier how thats a killer draw
* He was statistically very weak anyway
* He was ridden by an inexperience pilot who looked after him
* REPLICATOR looks the best option with that run behind him

Selection

REPLICATOR 5/1 Each Way


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