No Strong Bet Today

Today's Options

Boxing Day with 9 meetings surviving and todays message
covers 16 races. There are so many smaller field handicaps
that don't interest me and so many races are out of bounds. I've taken a big spread of races at several tracks looking for good oppurtunities and good profiles and I have a plenty of races that produce good profiles and potential bets. It's the usual problem of many doubly declared horses and several non runners and some bets are shorter than I like but there are options to consider today and the message is designed to be simple and stress free and isn't drowned by analysis.


Today's 3 Bets

Ffos Las 12.35 - THE JUGOPOLIST 3/1 Each Way

Limerick 1.40 - MIKAEL D´HAGUENET 4/6

Sedgefield 2.30 - TAHITI PEARL 13/8


I have gone with 3 options today. These are slightly forced
upon me as non runners change the shape of races and a
few of the selections. I have had to cut down a few options
as well. Best I can do with the usual last minute shuffle you get with all the changes and non runners.




Other Non Staked Bets

Sedgefield 12.10 - SMADYNIUM 11/8

Wincanton 12.30 - BALLINAHOW STAR 4/6

Sedgefield 12.40 - THREE WHITE SOCKS 5/1

Kempton 12.50 - RIVER MAIGUE 4/5

Wetherby 1.10 - PRINCE BLACKTHORN 8/1 Each Way

Ffos Las 1.10 - PRINCE PIPPIN 8/1

Towcester 1.20 - MOLLY OSCAR 6/1 Each Way

Kempton 1.25 - MILARROW (Win) RAJDHANI EXPRESS (Place)

Kempton 2.00 - DYNASTE 8/11

Kempton 2.35 - CINDERS AND ASHES 9/2

Towcester 3.05 - BADGERS COVE - GROUSE LODGE Split stakes

Kempton 3.10 - CUE CARD Win 6/1 LONG RUN Saver 2/1

Kempton 3.45 - SAINT ROQUE 7/2 Each Way



S a t u r d a y 's R e v i e w

It was either bad luck or bad judgement as I ignored several winners in the message and ended up with just three losing options. The message had good winners yet I failed to pick any of those at the top of the message. The 14 previews we had returned results of L W L P L W L L W W W P P L and we had five winners at prices of 11/4 2/5 8/1 5/1 11/2. Sadly none made the top of the message. No doubt the distraction of the on/off inspections saga didn't help but it's often about making correct decisions in real time with little or no time to think and I failed that task on Saturday. Turned out to be an underachieving message and thats annoying when I had so many winners and 8 of the 14 races right. A frustrating day.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


S e d g e f i e l d 12.10

13/8 Smadynium, 15/8 Big Water, 9/1 Karinga Dandy
9/1 Taxi Des Obeaux, 12/1 Ballymartin King, 12/1 Hallmark Harry 20/1 Irish By Name, 33/1 Discoverie, 33/1 Stitched In Time 33/1 Vintage Times, 66/1 Supreme Gold, 66/1 Trust Thomas.

This Novice Hurdle looks to be between two horses. I rated
Graded bumper runner BIG WATER only a neutral profile as
very few have tried to win with similar profiles. SMADYNIUM had a better profile but it wasn't enough to sing his chance from the rooftops. I think SMADYNIUM will probably win it but althought best profile it is more solid than spectacular.

Selection

SMADYNIUM 11/8



W i n c a n t o n 12.30

6/4 Ballinahow Star, 2/1 Shady Lane, 3/1 Fair Bramble
14/1 Brockwell Park, 20/1 Miss Marani, 20/1 Oscar Jane
50/1 Southway Queen.

* This is a mares novice hurdle
* BALLINAHOW STAR ought to take this
* I see weakness in SHADY LANE
* Looked at 5 year olds from a Novice Hurdle
* Those that had 1 run this season
* Beaten 8 or more lengths last time out
* I found a 0-67 record with that profile
* SHADY LANE fails that
* FAIR BRAMBLE is a neutral
* You'd be frustrated if she popped up to beat you
* BALLINAHOW STAR looks the one

Selection

BALLINAHOW STAR 4/6



F f o s L a s 12.35

6/4 Whisper, 5/2 Hold Court, 4/1 The Jugopolist
9/1 Accordingtopalm, 12/1 Tenby Jewel,
14/1 In The Post, 33/1 Lydstep Hills, 50/1 Lucky Sun
50/1 Shanks A Lot, 66/1 Pennant Dancer.

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* WHISPER is a 4yo Nicky Henderson bumper horse
* I looked at all Novice Hurdles at 2m 4f
* Horses aged 4 from a bumper first time out were 0-36
* WHISPER has to overcome that 0-36 statistic
* I looked at all Novioce Hurdles over 2m 3f or more
* 4yo's from Bumpers first time out had a 1-40 record
* That winner won over 2m 7f and had 3 career runs
* WHISPER has 1 and its not a great profile
* He may still win but I have to see him as unsafe
* ACCORDINGTOPALM - Average profile and a chance
* He popped up at 25/1 last time in a weak race
* Statistically I wasnt convinced winning over 2m last time
* TENBY JEWEL - Too many last time winners for him to cope with
* THE JUGOPOLIST - Every right to be considered each way

Selection

£5 Each Way THE JUGOPOLIST 7/2



S e d g e f i e l d 12.40

2/1 Deise Dynamo, 2/1 Fourjacks,
11/2 Three White Socks, 12/1 Herdsman
25/1 About Thyne, 100/1 Nimko
100/1 Roseville Cottage, 150/1 Go Teescomponents.

* This is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f
* DEISE DYNAMO - Steady enough horse who should go well
* He was beaten easily last time by a 118 rated horse
* That doesnt set too high a standard here
* FOURJACKS is 7 and was well beaten last time
* I looked at how older horses got on after heavy defeats
* I found quite a compelling statistic
* Every Novice Hurdle in December
* Thats over any distance in that Month
* I looked at horses aged 7 or more
* Those that ran within the past 3 months
* Those beaten more than 15 lengths last time
* Coming fron a Novice Hurdle last time
* I found a very interesting 1-205 record
* That winner was Flag Fen at Fakenham in 2000
* FOURJACKS fails that 1-205 statistic
* I have to oppose him
* HERDSMAN - You'd want to see market support
* Not for me as a 7yo seasonal debutant
* I wanted to go with Annas Arch but he's a non runner
Selection

£5 Each Way THREE WHITE SOCKS 5/1



K e m p t o n 12.50

11/8 River Maigue, 9/4 New Year´s Eve, 8/1 Spirit Of Shankly 12/1 Asker, 12/1 Kings Lad, 16/1 Cosimo De Medici
16/1 Hung Parliament, 16/1 Rysbrack, 20/1 Professeur Emery
66/1 Avison, 66/1 Zebrano.

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* I'd want at least 2 National Hunt runs and maybe more
* COSIMO DE MEDICI - ASKER dont have hurdling experience
* SPIRIT OF SHANKLY is a 4yo from a maiden hurdle
* No winners came from maiden hurdles and he lost in that one
* NEW YEAR´S EVE - I have him as a neutral
* I think he or RIVER MAIGUE should win
* RIVER MAIGUE has to be the bet for me
* Ran a 150 rated horse close on his debut
* RIVER MAIGUE is the most likely winner

Selection - RIVER MAIGUE



W e t h e r b y 1.10

5/2 Saroque, 7/2 Jameel, 6/1 Bravo Bravo
17/2 Glenford Dorie, 9/1 Justjoe, 9/1 Prince Blackthorn
11/1 Swaledale Lad, 12/1 Lukey Luke, 16/1 Bob´s Ticket
16/1 Jack Albert, 25/1 Blazing Bull, 25/1 Moscow Ivan.

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f. I wasnt keen
on JAMMEL as a 4yo up in trip. SAROQUE came out well
enough to consider but all the 5yo winners like him had a
I was not convinced about LUKEY LUKE wanting another
race this year for a 9 year old. PRINCE BLACKTHORN is
the suggestion each way but not a strong one.

Selection - PRINCE BLACKTHORN e/w





F f o s L a s 1.10

5/2 Kusadasi, 7/2 Quapriland
8/1 Prince Pippin, 10/1 Lucky Prince
12/1 Samingarry, 12/1 Sommersturm
20/1 Freddy´s Star.

* This is a 2m Handicap
* I wasnt keen on the two market leaders here
* KUSADASI is exposed and drops from 2m 5f
* Very few exposed horses managed that in similar races
* QUAPRILAND is also unsafe from a chase
* Especially as a mare and an 8yo
* I would take this pair on with an alternative
* I have to take a guess with the remainder
* PRINCE PIPPIN 8/1 is that guess



T o w c e s t e r 1.20

11/4 Seymour Eric, 4/1 Be All Man, 6/1 Market Option
7/1 Molly Oscar, 8/1 Benefit Of Youth, 8/1 Native Court
10/1 Giveitachance, 12/1 Glenford Dorie
16/1 Callhimwhatyouwant, 25/1 Lombardy Boy.

Ran into a few dead ends here as I wanted to take on the
favourite but some of the alternatives are hard to seperate. SEYMOUR ERIC drops from a 3m race and horses doing that with 1 run this season are 0-35 so I am taking him on. Not confident I can split several options. BE ALL MAN is a definate possibility but a hard stable to read and I'd be happier with more runs that season. I looked at mare who came from 3m races with 4 or more races that year and found a 2-8 record so MOLLY OSCAR is a tentative pick.

Selection - MOLLY OSCAR 6/1 Each Way




K e m p t o n 1.25

3/1 Coole River, 3/1 Rajdhani Express, 11/2 Elenika
11/2 Milarrow, 13/2 Monarch´s Way, 10/1 Grove Pride
14/1 Aikideau, 14/1 Valmari

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Handicap Chase
* Ran a few profiles and decided on these
* VALMARI - Like her but wrong type and unsafe
* GROVE PRIDE - I dont think he will win this
* ELENIKA - I wasnt persuaded as a 4yo up in trip
* MONARCH´S WAY - I couldnt find a 5yo like him
* AIKIDEAU - I felt he needed another run

Shortlist

* MILARROW - Shortlisted but profiles only acceptable
* RAJDHANI EXPRESS - Chances but isnt delivering
* COOLE RIVER - Respected but could bounce
* Looks like I may need a split stake bet here

Selection

* MILARROW Win Bet 5/1
* RAJDHANI EXPRESS - Place Bet 4/5




L i m e r i c k 1.40

4/6 Mikael D´haguenet, 7/2 Argocat
13/2 Far Away So Close, 10/1 Snooze, 12/1 Tillahow.

This is a Graded Novice Chase and having now won his first
chase start and having jumped much better recently I'd fancy MIKAEL D´HAGUENET to take this race. It looks very cheap for a Graded Chase. FAR AWAY SO CLOSE is a reasonable horse but this is the limit of his stamina and he would prefer better ground and has something to find on form. ARGOCAT is only a 4yo. I looked at 4yo's in all Graded Novice Chases in England and Ireland. The only one that managed to win a Graded Chase beyond 2 miles was Turko a horse who faced just 4 rivals and two of these failed to get past the first fence and he had nothing to beat. MIKAEL D´HAGUENET should be good enough to take this race and outclass this field.

Selection

MIKAEL D´HAGUENET 4/6




K e m p t o n 2.00

4/7 Dynaste, 5/1 Poungach, 13/2 Lovcen
12/1 Hadrian´s Approach, 14/1 Molotof, 16/1 Theatre Guide
25/1 Third Intention.

* DYNASTE - Obvious chance and likely winner
* POUNGACH - His profile is just as good as the favourite
* I thought DYNASTE would still just about win
* Had there been 8 runners I'd have split staked this
* I'd have gone DYNASTE win POUNGACH place
* I'd have done that in respect of POUNGACH's profile
* No each way though and I felt DYNASTE would win
* Not an attractive bet at the price though



S e d g e f i e l d 2.30

5/4 Tahiti Pearl, 7/4 Wilde Pastures, 7/1 Zazamix
10/1 Indian Groom, 14/1 Mister Wall Street
25/1 Sergeant Pink.

* This is a 2m Handicap Chase
* INDIAN GROOM is a topweight seasonal debutant
* Cant rule him out but not a great profile
* I cant find a 7yo winning like him with that weight
* ZAZAMIX has a similar profile and a better chance
* His profile is only average though
* WILDE PASTURES and TAHITI PEARL dominate the market
* TAHITI PEARL comes out much better for me
* WILDE PASTURES comes from a Novice Chase
* Several winners did that but none with just 1 run that year
* Those with 2 runs that season were only 1-41 anyway
* WILDE PASTURES could just be short of a recent race
* I'd want more comong from Novice to Handicap company
* TAHITI PEARL has a better profile
* Horses aged 8
* At least 12 National Hunt Starts
* Dropping from a 19f handicap
* No form beyond Class 3 before
* Running within a Month
* Beaten under 20 lengths last time out
* There were 9 horses with this profile
* They finished W 3 2 W 5 W 5 W 2
* TAHITI PEARL has the best profile

Selection - TAHITI PEARL 13/8



K e m p t o n 2.35

2/1 Countrywide Flame, 5/2 Darlan, 4/1 Cinders And Ashes
15/2 Raya Star, 8/1 Dodging Bullets, 16/1 Get Me Out Of Here 25/1 Punjabi

The Christmas Hurdle is a Grade 1 over 2 miles and it shapes like a 4 horse race as I dont like DODGING BULLETS as he's a 4yo and none have won this in a long time and the outsiders look weak in several areas. COUNTRYWIDE FLAME is also a 4 year old. Horses aged 4 won this in 1997 in a 5 runner race and in 1988 with Kribensis. On the other hand the best record is horses from the Fighting Fifth Hurdle with 1 run this year so COUNTRYWIDE FLAME does fit that profile and I think I must consider him a positive. DARLAN is a 5yo seasonal debutant. I dont think thats a huge problem but very few winners won it
without a run. Harchibald did it but he did have a run before in a flat race which would have helped. If your looking for horses aged 5 that won this first time out you may have to go back decades as none managed it since 1988 and DARLAN does not interest me enough without a run. RAYA STAR lacks the right backclass without Grade 1 form and I just felt he faced better horses. CINDERS AND ASHES has the perfect profile coming from the Fighting Fifth Hurdle with 1 run this season. That puts him a good bet statistically but he was beaten 12 lengths in that race by COUNTRYWIDE FLAME. I'd rather have the older horse myself and I'm taking the view that the main reason CINDERS AND ASHES lost by so far was that he needed the run on the heavy ground. He could improve a lot on that and I give him every chance of winning this if he's
able to cope with the ground. There is a temptation to side
with COUNTRYWIDE FLAME on the ground but purely on
profile there is a clear choice in CINDERS AND ASHES.

Selection

CINDERS AND ASHES 9/2



T o w c e s t e r 3.05

6/4 Buddy Bolero, 7/4 Grouse Lodge, 3/1 Badgers Cove
12/1 Hilda Wild, 33/1 Midnight Dove, 50/1 Breeogue Boy
50/1 Moscow Mule.

This is a Beginners Chase over 2m 6f. I looked at all horses aged 5-6-7 that are seasonal debutants and that came from maiden and novice hurdles like BUDDY BOLERO. Those of them without Graded form had a 2-100 record and although there were a couple of winners I didn't think it was a strong profile. I was expecting GROUSE LODGE's profile to have been significantly better. It wasn't as clear as I thought but it was still better than Buddy Bolero's. BADGERS COVE's has a chance and came out as the safest bet of the three. Had their been 8 runners I'd have done BADGERS COVE each way. This is a poor each way race though. I decided to oppose BUDDY BOLERO and split stake the other two.

Selection

BADGERS COVE - Half Stakes 7/2 +
GROUSE LODGE - Half Stakes 5/4 +



K e m p t o n 3.10

William Hill King George VI Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m

7/4 Long Run, 5/1 Cue Card, 5/1 Riverside Theatre
7/1 Kauto Stone, 8/1 Grands Crus, 10/1 The Giant Bolster
12/1 Captain Chris, 20/1 Junior, 25/1 Champion Court
33/1 For Non Stop.

* The King George is a Grade 1 over 3m
* So many multiple winners before leaves weak angles
* I cant make a good enough case for the following horses
* CHAMPION COURT - JUNIOR
* RIVERSIDE THEATRE - His problem is 258 days break
* I went back to 1988 and all winners had raced that year
* He was 2nd last year but he was beaten 12 lengths
* He also had a run last year so first time out I oppose him
* CAPTAIN CHRIS - beaten over 18 lengths in last years race
* He didnt look like he stayed then so why should he now
* THE GIANT BOLSTER - Not convinced he has the class
* Has good form but much of it flatters him
* All he has done is win a Grade 3 handicap
* A Grade 1 at 3m at Kempton may be beyond him
* GRANDS CRUS - I oppose him after his last run
* Very rare to win a Grade 1 after such a poor last run
* He has dissapointed on his last two starts now
* One was probably stamina failure but still not convinced
* Too much risk about his wellbeing for me
* Few horses win these races after a bad run either
* KAUTO STONE looks like he's been freshened up
* Lots to like about his profile but he is a small horse
* Aside from that he would be one of my top 3
* CUE CARD comes from a handicap
* The odd winners did that but none like him
* Most had more runs that season
* None came from handicaps over 2m 4f or shorter
* That said it was a Grade 2 handicap
* I should ignore that statistic really
* I also think he will stay and he is progressive
* CUE CARD has just 6 Chase starts not many at all
* The 1997 winner had 6 Chase runs but all others had more
* LONG RUN won this two years ago
* Still high class maybe he isnt the same horse as then
* He's won only 1 of his last 5 and he was lucky in that
* That said his 2nd run back last year would win this
* That was 2nd in this race last year behind only by Kauto Star
* LONG RUN has an edge on the ratings but is a short price
* I am drawn to CUE CARD as the improving 6yo
* Tough one to sort and I want the best of both worlds
* Thats why I am having a win bet and saver

Selection

CUE CARD - Win Bet 6/1
LONG RUN - Saver Bet 2/1


K e m p t o n 3.45

* Struggling with this 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* Hard to split the favourites so it may be too hard
* Dont fancy Bathwick Brave or Faultless Feelings
* If I had to try and split the favourites
* SAINT ROQUE just looked safer than KATKEAU
* SAINT ROQUE each way is the safest hunch I have

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