1 Mention Today


* Split Stake Bet
* Half Stakes on a win bet
* The other half an each way double


Wincanton 2.10

MISS EXHIBITIONIST 5/2

Half stakes on a Win Bet

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Hereford 1.50

MONTURGEON 5/4

Wincanton 2.10

MISS EXHIBITIONIST 5/2


Half Stakes on an Each Way Double

* These are the guidelines to a £10 Stake
* £5 Win on Miss Exhibitionist 5/2
* £2.50 E/W double Miss Exhibitionist/Monturgeon


I wasn't able to do much yesterday and needed the run
so a slow start to the week. Today is a little busier but
York starts tomorrow and the messages should slowly
improve throughout the week. Only Beverley on the
flat today. I've only done one main preview there and
a couple of Mini Previews as the last half of the card's
too difficult and we don't know if the projected heavy
rain will come or what time that happens if it does. A
couple of Kempton thoughts as well but I'm not keen
on switching codes if I can help it. That applies to all
the National Hunt work which is also scattered around.

I think the National Hunt is my best chance of getting
a top of the message winner. It surprised me but I have
staked a bet. Not bothered about detail or the quality of
the message today. I have split my stakes. Rather than
having an each way double I am having a win bet with
half of the stake and an each way double with the rest.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


H e r e f o r d 1.50

6/4 Monturgeon, 100/30 Billy Merriott 5/1 Parhelion
12/1 Midnight Dove, 14/1 Likearollingstone
25/1 R Craig, Miss Harriet Lewis, 100/1 Duneen Dream
100/1 The Last Bridge, 100/1 The Walnut Tree.

I just ran some profiles in this Novice Hurdle. It shapes
like a 3 horse race. PARHELION was on the weak side
and the absence hurt BILLY MERRIOTT a little. The
best profile by some way was MONTURGEON who is
my selection either a win bet or in an each way double.

Selection - MONTURGEON



B e v e r l e y 2.00

The 2pm at Beverley is a 2yo maiden and little I can do
here. I would rather have twice raced FLY FISHER than
then unraced Panama Cat or Top Notch Tonto who ran
behind Fly Fisher last time but it may come down to the
draw and I felt that was inconclusive. I wouldnt rule out
either Fraserburgh or Crystal Cove. Waste of time really
but I'd split staking this win and place. FLY FISHER did
appeal as a place bet around 4/5 as I dont 3 will beat him.



W i n c a n t o n 2.10

5/4 Cabora, 11/4 Miss Exhibitionist, 3/1 Adiynara
16/1 Corlea, 16/1 Finmerello, 25/1 Dundrum Dancer
25/1 Spring Bay, 33/1 Kavestorm, 66/1 Herminella
66/1 Looselastic.

Mares Novice Hurdle. Dominated mainly by 4 year olds
and the favourite Cabora is hard to rate as he is unraced.
Statistically the best profile is MISS EXHIBITIONIST
and around 3/1 she'd be my choice. I would not mind if
I backed her each way in a single or double but I'll leave
that up to you. MISS EXHIBITIONIST is my selection.



B e v e r l e y 2.30

2/1 Wish Again, 9/4 Slenningford, 3/1 El Mcglynn
7/1 Red Shadow, 12/1 Made In The Shade
14/1 Italian Ice, 33/1 Kuraanda, 66/1 Brunswick Vale
100/1 Script, 100/1 Tumbleowtashoes.

* This is a 3yo seller over 5f
* There are only 5 relevant races like this in May
* These are the 5 renewals of this race
* This is what you want statistically
* All 5 winners had at least 4 career starts
* All 5 winners ran this season
* They all had form in at least Class 4 before
* All 5 winners ran within a Month
* They all came from 5f or 6f races
* This leaves a shortlist of 3 horses
* EL MCGLYNN - WISH AGAIN -RED SHADOW
* There is " possible "heavy rain forecast there
* If that happens and its soft WISH AGAIN is the one
* If it doesnt and its dry I'd go with an each way option
* RED SHADOW would be the choice if its dry




H e r e f or d 2.50

11/10 Cuban Piece, 5/2 Leopard Hills
6/1 Highkingofmunster, 8/1 Nicky Nutjob
20/1 Desperate Times, 25/1 Stafford Charlie
25/1 Van Doesburg.

* CUBAN PIECE has a poor profile in this selling hurdle
* No 4yo came up in trip to win after a poor last run
* Statistically I should oppose him
* The problem's nothing is safe against him and just 7 run
* LEOPARD HILLS is a token guess instead




B e v e r l e y 3.00

3/1 Diamond Blue, 4/1 Mercers Row
6/1 We´ll Deal Again, 8/1 Highland Warrior
8/1 Shawkantango, 10/1 Ingleby Star, 10/1 Select Committee
12/1 Lady Kildare, 14/1 Liberty Ship, 20/1 Wicked Wilma.

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-75 rated horses
* I want to oppose the seasonal debutants
* Overall these have a 13-528 record
* Thats under 1 in every 40 winning
* Most had Class 2 form and higher
* WE´LL DEAL AGAIN doesnt have that
* He is absent more than 7 months as well
* Debutants absence that long have an even poorer record
* WE´LL DEAL AGAIN doesnt offer enough
* Fillies aged 4 are predictably poor first time out
* LADY KILDARE also fails that and is wrong
* Only 1 winner has aged 12 or more
* HIGHLAND WARRIOR won this last year aged 12
* He was the only winner of all similar races that age
* He won a falaely run race last year
* None aged 13 have won and I dont like him
* DIAMOND BLUE is a lightly raced 4yo filly
* There are 27 fillies aged 4 winning
* 26 of the 27 had 13 or more career starts
* The other (Sirenuse 2010) had 8 career starts
* No Filly aged 4 had under 8 career starts
* DIAMOND BLUE with 5 runs is too unsafe
* WICKED WILMA has a weak profile as a mare
* She has just 1 run this season and a heavy defeat
* No fillies won like her and she is now an 8yo
* SELECT COMMITTEE is an exposed 7 year old
* He has just one run this season
* The only winners with that profile had Class 2 form
* SELECT COMMITTEE hasnt been out of Class 4 yet
* All his wins come late June and onwards
* I think he needs more runs before winning
* LIBERTY SHIP has a similar profile
* It's slightly better with 2 runs this year and Class 3 form
* Similar horses still struggled with a 1-54 record
* LIBERTY SHIP isnt really running well enough


S h o r t l i s t

* MERCERS ROW is an unexposed 5yo
* He won last time out in a 5f handicap
* He has backclass in Class 4 before
* Im found 1 similar who ran 7 days befire
* MERCERS ROW has been absent 12 days
* Thats forgiveable and he is a positive
* MERCERS ROW has only an average profile

* SHAWKANTANGO is an exposed 5yo
* He comes from a recent 5f race and has Class 4 form
* I found 2 winners with that profile
* Both had a few lbs less weight
* Neither were as busy as him this season
* SHAWKANTANGO has enough to shortlist
* He is hard to read and its a judgement call
* He may have been busier than ideal recently
* Also a worry his best wins off 64 and today is off 71

* INGLEBY STAR is an exposed 7yo
* He has Class 3 form and 4 runs this season
* I found 1 similar winner to him
* INGLEBY STAR is a positive
* INGLEBY STAR has yet to win off 75 yer
* He has won a better class race off 73 though
* His record at Beverley W 3 5 2 3
* Ignore his last run at Thirsk
* He couldnt win from the draw

Selection

INGLEBY STAR 14/1 + Win bet




H e r e f or d 3.50

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 6f and I
see DAZZLING RITA as vulnerable as I cant find a
mare coming from any handicap over 2m 2f or less
winning. I'd be looking each way against him.



K e m p t o n E v e n i n g C a r d

I am not really in All weather mode at the moment. It is
the turf I'm concentrating on and I don't like switching as it breaks the concentration. Just a few quick words tonight.


Kempton 6.20

I would choose something - or rather guess at something
that was fancied and under the odds expected that smells
fancied and go each way. You havent much else to go on.
With Strident Force having a lot to prove down in trip I
would look at Ta Ayabb e/w as an option only if desperate.


Kempton 6.50

9/2 Proper Charlie, 5/1 Riflessione, 7/1 Links Drive Lady
7/1 Mawjoodah, 8/1 Cut Across, 10/1 Sermons Mount
10/1 Sketchy Evidence, 10/1 Spin Again
14/1 Pick A Little, 14/1 Roodee Queen, 16/1 Efistorm
33/1 With Hindsight.

This is a 6f handicap. The only reason I am here is that
CUT ACROSS has just 1 career start. I looked at every
6f handicap in May and no winners have won with just
one run. Not enough tried to make him a negative but
none managed it and I don't see it as an advantage and
would look elsewhere. CUT ACROSS also has a tough
draw to cope with as well. He not look safe to me. I'm
mildly interested in a Match Bet. PROPER CHARLIE
I feel should beat him but both have difficult draws and
left me a bit cold. I quite liked MAWJOODAH. He did
well last time in a slightly better race. He was hampered
at a crucial stage and could have been much closer. He's
a tentative choice in an open race at a reasonable price.



Kempton 7.20

It looks a 3 horse race. Passed them all as statistically
fine. I just prefered SIR FREDLOT but feel the safest
route would be the each way double to protect a guess.


Kempton 7.50

Evs Perfect Delight, 4/1 Moon Glow, 7/1 Lily Potts
8/1 Aliante, 8/1 Dedication, 20/1 Jaja De Jau
20/1 Let´s Confer, 100/1 Felona E Serona.

This is a 3yo maiden for fillies. I can appreciate that
PERFECT DELIGHT has experience and ability and
could make that pay against unraced MOON GLOW
but statistically she is not strong and I wouldnt want
to bet odds on. I looked at all 3yo fillies maidens run
in May at every distance. I just wanted to look at all
horses from 3yo handicaps. I found a weak record as
just one managed it from 43 that tried and she didn't
have a recent run. May be nothing significant but if
we get clinical with numbers there are more winners
and a better strike rate with debutants so I leave the
odds on favourite alone and see what happens here.


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