No Selection Today

No Mention Today


T o d a y 's O p t i o n s


A very bland days racing today and the message is much
the same. I dont like Folkestone or Beverley at the best
of times and they throw up average early week offerings.
The bottom has fallen out of Folkestones card with lots
of non runners. It is all a bit depressing today. I'm going
to leave it to the bottom of the message today. No Bets.
The cards and conditions do not give me any confidence
and I will be pleasantly surprised if we finish ahead today.



M o n d a y 's S u m m a r y

Foul conditions to the week and we opened up with a
few previews at the bottom of the message. I decided
to give a mythical stake to these horses just for some
clairity and easy record keeping. In the end I staked
seven races and we had 3 winners. There was a profit
of about £23 at Starting price and about £40 if going
for the early prices. Not a bad effort given conditions.



S e r v i c e N e w s

Bottom Of The Message

Ocassionally for reasons of clarity I stake my bets to
a mythical £10 stake. That makes it clearer especially
when there are savers or split stake bets. I am going to
do that in the bottom of the message. It will allow for
easier recording or profits and losses. It will clear up a
few ambiguous previews. It wont affect the top part of
the message at all or the account. Its a cosmetic change
only and just makes it simpler to follow and to record.

****************************************************
****************************************************



P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


Selections are now given to a mythical £10 Stake



F o l k e s t o n e 2.00

2/1 Novabridge, 4/1 Whiskey Junction, 4/1 Green Mountain
10/1 Spic ´n Span, 12/1 Liberal Lady, 14/1 Danzoe

This 5f handicap is too hard. Poorly framed race. There
is no clear draw evidence as so few races are run here in a
decent sized field. NOVABRIDGE popped up last time at
25/1 after a 4 months break. Statistically nothing special
at all. In fact its the 4yo fillies that mostly win again and I am cold on NOVABRIDGE with just 1 run in 132 days.
GREEN MOUNTAIN is weak. Fillies aged 3 via maidens
were just 1-43 and the only winner (Bouncy Bouncy) had
3 runs and she has 12. Those like GREEN MOUNTAIN
who had 4 or more runs were 0-45. These 2 dont appeal.
I am leaving the race other than these two negatives.



B e v e r l e y 2.10

2/1 Reflect, 3/1 Finity Run, 7/2 Priestley´s Reward
9/2 Future Wonder, 10/1 Rockgoat, 20/1 Valentine´s Gift
50/1 Roman Eglenovich, 50/1 Sleights Boy
50/1 Upton Crystal.

This 12f selling race is for horses aged 3 and 4 and thats
rare and very few similar races are run like it. It's a race of several issues. REFLECT is the class horse but comes from a poor hurdles run and a downgrade in stable and it depends a lot on how quickly his new connections have messed him up as they will. FUTURE WONDER would
be too inexperienced for a normal seller but this is not
normal and she could get away with it without an older
horse in the race. With FINITY RUN you have to get
past a horrible last run which is hard to understand and
excuse. I could see any of these three winning but they
are also flawed in some way. PRIESTLEY´S REWARD
does have ability and handles the ground and in a race
where you have to guess he would be mine each way.

Selection

£5 Each Way PRIESTLEY´S REWARD 9/2



B e v e r l e y 2.40

This Auction Maiden is not really a statistical race so
not much I can say. The issue is will HOOFALONG be
good enough to defy an absence against some horses I
would see as mediocre. I think he probably will but he
looks a bit short at odds on considering it only takes 1
horse to steal a race. Could be a race for a split staked
place bet. GOLD BEAU could be interesting at decent
odds to place. Thats one of many options available.

No Selection




F o l k e s t o n e 3.00

3/1 Gull Rock, 4/1 Arctic Stryker 6/1 Black Douglas,
8/1 Mister Mackenzie, 8/1 Tribal I D
10/1 Enthrall, 25/1 Scary Canary, 66/1 Grayfriars.

This is a basic 6f maiden. Many of these come from the
handicap route and are very difficult to match to winners.
GULL ROCK and ENTHRALL are the orthdox maiden
types in this race and the horses I can match to winners.
Going for a split stake bet conditional on all 8 running.

£5 Win GULL ROCK 6/4
£5 Place ENTHRALL 7/4



F o l k e s t o n e 3.10

9/4 Es Que Love, 11/4 Ponty Acclaim, 7/2 Free Zone
4/1 Tax Free, 12/1 Kool Henry, 25/1 Burning Thread.

This is obviously a tightly knit conditions race. This
race is dominated by the 3 year olds despite the fact
older horses do better here. PONTY ACCLAIM is a
3yo filly and none have won this race and there might
be ground issues with him. ES QUE LOVE is not easy
to read but can only be fancied on some selected races
he has ran and not others. TAX FREE comes down in
trip as a 10 year old and concedes a lot of years to all
of these. I think FREE ZONE has one of the stronger
chances but his stables runners are in and out and not
all of them have ran as expected recently. Its a messy
race. No confidence here but I felt FREE ZONE had a
bit more to offer than most and I will go with him but
think we may need a saver in quite a dangerous race.

Selection

£7 Win FREE ZONE 5/2
£3 Win ES QUE LOVE 11/4



B e v e r l e y 3.40

10/11 Altharoos, 3/1 Wyldfire, 6/1 Love Marmalade
13/2 Le Talisman, 8/1 Flashlight, 10/1 He´s A Striker
20/1 Apache Rising, 100/1 Haaf´n Haaf.

This 2yo maiden forces us to make a tiresome choice
yet again about a 2 year old. There looks to be 2 here
that stand out. The market prefers ALTHAROOS and
now odds on it would be no surprise if he won. I don't
see enough myself to bet him at that price. He did run
a very promising race first time out. I wonder why he
was then sent to Brighton. It doesn't strike me as the
norm for Micheal Stoute to run a smart 2yo there and
he could be slightly better on paper than he is on track.
It makes me wonder whether WYLDFIRE isnt the bet
each way against him around 3/1. That'd be my choice.

Selection

£5 Each Way WYLDFIRE 3/1



F o l k e s t o n e 4.00

Evs Authentication, 7/2 Dark And Dangerous
7/1 Dazzling Begum, 10/1 Stickleback 10/1 Fuzzy Logic
16/1 Maccabees, 33/1 Fight

Not the most attractive staying handicap as we see both
a hot favourite and a big field. Given many of these look
average I do not want to oppose AUTHENTICATION.
Look at 3 year olds that won handicaps last time. When
they ran within a month and were unexposd and coming
from 14f or more they had a brilliant 20-40 record with
one in every two winning. Brilliant that might be but its
a 50 % record and that means the right price is roughly
even money. AUTHENTICATION is only a bit bigger
than that evens so is not much more than the right sort
of price given the size of the field. I'm not worried about
the softer ground. He is too strong in profile to oppose.
He is too short to get stuck into but I think he will win.

£10 Win AUTHENTICATION Evens



B e v e r l e y 5.10

4/1 Tiger Webb, 13/2 Gadobout Dancer, 7/1 Praxios
8/1 Iulus, 8/1 Kheskianto, 17/2 Stanley Rigby
10/1 Goodlukin Lucy, 12/1 Cottam Donny, 12/1 Kames Park
16/1 Graceful Act, 16/1 Maybeme, 16/1 Rapturous Applause
16/1 Valantino Oyster, 20/1 Zennor, 40/1 Champagne Valley
40/1 Media Stars, 50/1 Penderyn.

* This is an Amateur Riders Handicap just short of 10f
* Beverley have 7 renewals of this race
* There are just 40 similar races elsewhere
* The Draw could play a part here
* I looked at handicaps here with 12 or more runners
* There were 9 of these races since 2011
* 8 of the 9 winners were drawn in Stall 9 or higher
* Horses drawn 1-8 had a 1-67 record
* Horses drawn 9-17 had a 8-63 record
* TIGER WEBB is well treated and easy to see why favourite
* I would argue Stall 2 wont help him
* I looked at 4yo's like him down from 12f
* None did it in this race but 2 did elsewhere
* Both had more recent runs within 2 weeks though
* His profile isnt good enough to overlook the draw
* COTTAM DONNY - Weak profile up in distance
* I am opposing him drawn 1
* KHESKIANTO is wrong as a mare up in trip
* GOODLUKIN LUCY has the same profile
* PRAXIOS is 4 and won an 8f race last time
* No horses of any age won 8f races last time
* I cant match PRAXIOS to any winner
* He also comes from a conditions race which isnt a good sign
* KAMES PARK is wrong from a 12f claimer
* IULUS - Dont like him aged 4 down in distance
* I think his inexperienced (and his jockeys) will catch him out
* STANLEY RIGBY - No negative but I wanted a recent run
* I wanted another couple of runs this year as well

Shortlist


* VALANTINO OYSTER - Neutral profile
* MAYBEME is a mare down from 12f
* I see her as neutral and she does have form here
* GADOBOUT DANCER has the best profile
* Looked at 5yo mares who won 10f races last time
* There was a 2-4 record easily better than the rest

Selection

£7 Win GADOBOUT DANCER 12/1

£2 Win Maybeme 7/1

£1 Win Valentino Oyster 20/1




B e v e r l e y 5.40

3/1 Cool Baranca, 13/2 Sinatramania, 7/1 Dean Iarracht
17/2 Hernando Torres, 9/1 Shy, 10/1 Eastlands Lad
12/1 Dzesmin, 14/1 Merrjanah, 16/1 Entrance, 16/1 Silly Gilly 20/1 Darrow, 20/1 General Tufto, 25/1 Front Rank
25/1 Orpen Wide, 28/1 Diamond Sunrise, 33/1 Kieron´s Rock.

* This is division 2 of the 10f Amateur race
* The same Draw statistic applies
* There were 9 of these races since 2011
* 8 of the 9 winners were drawn in Stall 9 or higher
* Horses drawn 1-8 had a 1-67 record
* Horses drawn 9-17 had a 8-63 record
* HERNANDO TORRES - Has to be a negative from 6f
* SINATRAMANIA - The only 5yo's to win like him were mares
* Not keen on his draw either
* DZESMIN - I felt too old for his absence
* SILLY GILLY - Rejected as mare from 7f drawn 1
* DIAMOND SUNRISE - Rejected as mare from 7f
* SHY - I cant match him dropping from 14f
* EASTLANDS LAD - 3yo's struggle none won from 7f
* KIERON´S ROCK - 3yo's struggle none won from 12f
* FRONT RANK - Doesnt offer enough as a 12yo
* GENERAL TUFTO - I wanted a more recent run
* ORPEN WIDE - Unsafe aged 10 up in distance
* MERRJANAH - No exposed 4yo filly won down in distance
* ENTRANCE has the same problem
* COOL BARANCA - Neutral profile and very hard to read
* Her draw in stall 2 worries me though
* DEAN IARRACHT - I think he has as good a chance as any
* He won this race in 2010 and 2011

Selection

£5 Each Way DEAN IARRACHT 6/1

****************************************************
****************************************************