No Selection Today

1 Mention Today

Catterick 4.45

WISH AGAIN 4/1 - 9/2


Each Way


Heavy rain again and looks dangerous. I'm staying
mainly with the Catterick and Epsom cards today.
I think it is wise to keep things uncomplicated and
light today. Going with just one Mention today to
keep us ticking over. I like his profile enough for a
small each way bet but dont get carried away today.
There are no fireworks in the message and this rain
is making things complicated. Its only a Wednesday
and its a nervous message today given the weather.





S t r o n g e s t S t a t i s t i c T o d a y

Catterick 2.05

* There are 58 Sellers in April for 2 year olds
* 55 of the 58 winners had 0-1-2 career starts
* 57 of the 58 winners had 0-1-2-3 career starts
* No winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* No winners came from maidens with 3+ runs
* PERFECT WORDS fails these angles
* With at least 3 viable alternatives I wasnt keen

T u e s d a y 's R e v i e w

With the abandonments we didn't have much choice on
Tuesday and I made the Email about two races. I had to
split the horses in an unusual bet rather than choose one
or the other but I think it made sense and we made a tiny
profit. The first horse MISERERE MEI failed and at that
stage we had lost just over half our stakes. BAWAARDI
won though and got it all back and a bit more. It felt like a well staked bet but given the desperate choice available it could have been a lot worse and it keeps us ticking over.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S



C a t t e r i c k 2.05

5/4 Perfect Words, 9/2 Mad Jazz, 5/1 Shop Til You Drop
8/1 Amourous, 9/1 Red Koko, Maggies Gem, 12/1 Saltaire Lass.

There are 58 Juvenile Sellers in April. Its interesting that 55 of the 58 winners had 0-1-2 career starts and none of these had more. Horses that have 0-1-2-3 previous races won 57 of the 58 races leaving PERFECT WORDS just a bit vulnerable on 4 runs. No winners came from a Maiden
like him with more than 2 previous races and that leaves
him unsafe. I think we should look elsewhere. MAD JAZZ
and AMOUROUS have to be considered as I can find some
winners like them unreadable as they are. Slightly safer in
profile is SHOP TIL YOU DROP who looks the best bet.



E p s o m 2.15

9/2 Fathom Five, 11/2 Jamesway, 7/1 Bless You
8/1 Living It Large, 10/1 Desert Phantom, 10/1 Lost In Paris 12/1 Diamond Charlie, 12/1 Perfect Pastime, 12/1 Taajub 14/1 Liberty Lady, 16/1 Captain Dimitrios, 16/1 Haadeeth 16/1 Taurus Twins, 20/1 Batchelors Star, 20/1 Cadeaux Pearl.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-93 rated horses
* Epsom has 10 renewals of this race
* There are 97 similar races elsewhere
* The Draw is significant in this race
* Epsom does not have many 5f Handicaps
* Since 2006 there's been 12 of these with 10 + runners
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 6 9 5 9 15 18 6 8 15 13 8 7
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 had a 0-40 record
* I dont see the following winning from the draw
* DESERT PHANTOM - TAAJUB
* CAPTAIN DIMITRIOS - BLESS YOU
* TAURUS TWINS - I dont like his draw in stall 5
* Doubt he is ready to overcome a career high mark
* FATHOM FIVE won this in 2009 and 2010
* He is now 8 though and lost his form when last seen
* That said he is better in April-May-June
* He is also very well handicapped
* The dilemma is can we expect him to bounce back to form
* When he is now an 8yo and first time out this season
* I looked at 5f handicaps in April in Class 2-3
* Horses aged 7 or more first time out are 1-121
* FATHOM FIVE - Doesnt look safe enough aged 8
* I looked at 4 year olds coming from 3yo handicaps
* There was a 0-44 record with horses doing this
* JAMESWAY has this to overcome
* I looked at all 4 year olds first time out
* Those absent more than 220 days were just 1-63
* That winner was Desert Commaner (2006) with 3 runs
* JAMESWAY has 18 runs and looks absent too long
* BLESS YOU also fails the same 4yo angles as well
* I had already ignored him from the draw
* BATCHELORS STAR - Looks unlikely winner
* He is 4 and a seasonal debutant
* None like him came from any Conditions race
* Looks like he has had training problems too
* CADEAUX PEARL - Not running well enough
* Not for a career high mark

* LIBERTY LADY is an exposed mare with 1 run this season
* The only female with 1 run that year was a 4yo
* LIBERTY LADY is a 5yo and therefore unsafe
* Her best wins come in Class 4 and her best wins off 82
* Today she is in a higher Class 3 and rated 93
* PERFECT PASTIME is 4 and has 1 run this year over 6f
* There were 2 similar winners but both were fillies
* All 37 Males doing that like him lost
* PERFECT PASTIME doesnt quite offer enough
* DIAMOND CHARLIE - His 60 day break damages him
* Hard to read I found 1 winner with a slightly shorter absence
* DIAMOND CHARLIE - I cant rule him out
* LIVING IT LARGE is an exposed 5yo debutant
* There are 3 winners with that profile
* None of these won or placed last time
* LIVING IT LARGE won last time so a little problem there
* Only 1 had the weight he does as well which isnt a positive
* LIVING IT LARGE has lots of other little problems
* He may not want the ground too soft
* He has a career high mark when all his wins are later in year
* LIVING IT LARGE is 0-11 in this grade and higher
* HAADEETH - I'd have to shortlist him
* He is one of the fittest horses and well drawn
* I'd have prefered a more recent run but he is fine
* We dont know if he will handle the track though
* LOST IN PARIS is an exposed 6 year old
* He has 1 run this season in a 5f race
* I found 2 similar winners but all had more backclass
* I can forgive him that but the ground also worries me
* Yet to win on softer than good its a problem

Selection

I think if you consider the draw - and how well handicapped
FATHOM FIVE is you can fancy him to win especially with
his history in the race. Against him is a proven track record that shows 8yo debutants are awful in this sort of race. I've double checked that again and again. Statistically I should be opposing FATHOM FIVE. I would see him more as a saver as there are few strong alternatives and nothing really has a trouble free profile if you apply the fact several of the more likely candidates have ground doubts. So FATHOM FIVE is
a saver at best but for the selection HAADEETH may be a
bit of value each way around 14/1 with a good solid profile.



C a t t e r i c k 3.10

9/4 Art Dzeko, 4/1 Time To Excel, 13/2 Son Of May
7/1 Johnson´s Cat, 7/1 My Pearl, 8/1 Only A Round
12/1 Rock Canyon, 16/1 Becksies, 16/1 Hopes Rebellion
33/1 Ruskins View.

This is a 3yo handicap. Not convinced at all about this
favourite ART DZEKO who comes up in distance with
just one run this season. No winners managed that from
a handicap and it isnt a strog profile. I think there is an
each way bet lurking here. TIME TO EXCEL has to be
respected but doesnt come out that well and on this track
I'd rather have a well raced horse this season. Almost the
right profile is SON OF MAY but he just fell short of an
ideal profile and the softer ground may hurt him. I think
ROCK CANYON needs another run this year. So might
HOPES REBELLION another with ground issues. I can
not argue a case for the fillies with long absences so I'm
opposing BECKSIES and RUSKINS VIEW. I couldnt see
a winner like JOHNSON´S CAT who I wanted to have a
better last run. Whilst not a certainty by any means the
best option to me looked like MY PEARL each way as
he had awful statistical problems last time out and didnt
run badly and better raced this year than many I thought
he had the best overall profile and is a decent price too.

Selection - MY PEARL 7/1 + Each Way



P e r t h 3.30

I thought about doing this 3m handicap hurdle. I wanted to
oppose the inexperienced 4yo RAAJIH with something a
bit more solid each way. I couldnt really commit enough of
my time to the race. Its Amateur Riders as well and would
have taken too long to do it properly. I can tell you that a serious number of past winners of this race last raced 20-60 days ago and had under 11 Hurdle starts. I was quite keen on PYJAMA GAME who fits the pattern and MORE EQUITY who doesnt. I think there is an each way bet against Raajih but this is a race that would drain me of time trying to sort out the riders ability and other things. If your planning any bet in this race I'd consider this pair against the favourite.



C a t t e r i c k 3.45

This is a messy and unsual conditions race just short of 12f for 3 year olds. I wasnt able to match ED DE GAS to a past winner and none like BORDONI came from 12f handicaps.
Neither are negatives. There are no good profiles only just
unproven ones. Given there are two rank outsiders and two
market leaders with flaws I would be inclined despite having only 5 runners to go with NASEEM ALYASMEEN as the
each way bet. His profile is also unsafe and unproven but I
like a recent run and his trainer Mick Channon has farmed
this race over the years. He has won the last 3 renewals of
the race and has 5 wins in the last 6 years from 7 runners.

Selection - NASEEM ALYASMEEN 4/1 + Each Way




E p s o m 3.55

5/1 Dick Doughtywylie, 6/1 Resurge, 7/1 Ittirad
10/1 Halfsin, Tres Coronas, 12/1 Ingleby Spirit
12/1 Ramona Chase, 14/1 Fiery Lad, 14/1 Right Step
16/1 Askaud, 16/1 Good Boy Jackson, 20/1 Oceanway
20/1 Sirvino.

* The City and Suburban is a 10f Handicap.
* Just a few points of interest about the race
* I looked at every course and distance race since 2006
* Horses drawn 14-15-16 were 0-26
* We need to be carefull betting very high numbers
* The ideal stalls to be drawn are between 3 and 13
* FIERY LAD - INGLEBY SPIRIT fail that
* All 14 past winners of this were aged 4-5-6
* Horses aged 7 or more have struggled in this race
* FIERY LAD is 7 and has a poor draw
* SIRVINO is 7 with no recent run and career high mark
* RESURGE is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* He was 2nd last year aged 6 first time out
* Now a 7yo he is respected but older than all past winners
* RAMONA CHASE is 7 with no recent run and career high mark
* Unexposed horses do better than exposed ones
* Recent winners had 13 3 5 7 4 11 3 starts
* I would avoid the exposed horses
* None were like TRES CORONAS
* None were like RIGHT STEP
* GOOD BOY JACKSON - Didnt do enough last time
* OCEANWAY - Unhappy with her profile
* She is a filly with 60 days absence and a dodgy draw
* ASKAUD - Wrong as 4yo filly up in distance

* Seasonal debutant 4 year olds score very well
* The 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 winners were 4yo debutants
* These all had 4-13 career starts
* DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE is 4 but has just 3 runs
* He is definately one run short of being in the right area
* That applies to all Class 2 handicaps in April at any distance
* Not a negative but without a 4th run I cant match him
* HALFSIN is alos a positive and an ideal type
* He could go well if handling the ground
* ITTIRAD is a 4yo debutant and perfectly fine
* Horses with his profile have won this before
* He looks the most likely of the right types to handle soft

Selection - ITTIRAD



C a t t e r i c k 4.45

5/1 Cone Donkey, 5/1 Laura´s Bairn, 6/1 Majestic Breeze
6/1 Wish Again, 10/1 Celestial Dawn, 10/1 Elusive Bonus
10/1 Tuibama, 12/1 Economic Crisis, 14/1 Just Like Heaven
14/1 Lord Buffhead, 14/1 Pressure Drop.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f for 0-65 rated horses
* CONE DONKEY doesnt offer me enough
* Not convinced about her draw being helpful
* Not convinced that she wants the ground this soft
* Her profile is unsafe down in distance with 1 run this year
* No filly won with that profile with under 5 runs
* LAURA´S BAIRN - Weak profile and worst draw
* His 78 day absence damages his profile after a win
* JUST LIKE HEAVEN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not first time out from his stable and 9 runs already
* ELUSIVE BONUS - I wanted another run this season
* TUIBAMA - Profile just about acceptable
* I fear for him on the ground though
* MAJESTIC BREEZE is a filly with 1 run this season
* I looked at fillies like her from 5f handicaps
* None had under 5 runs like her
* None were maidens like her
* ECONOMIC CRISIS - She is quite exposed as a filly
* Those with 13 + runs like her needed 4 + runs that year
* I couldnt match her to a winner
* Her stable are not strong either
* CELESTIAL DAWN - No filly came down from 7f
* She doesnt have a safe profile
* LORD BUFFHEAD - Not a bad profile at all
* I found 2 similar winners to him but hes held on form
* PRESSURE DROP - Hard to read but not a negative
* I cant find any filly like her from a 3yo seller
* I do think she is shortlistable with a recent race
* The ground is probably not going to help her though
* WISH AGAIN has a good solid profile
* Well raced and enough runs this year to treat seriously
* He is well drawn and should be fine on the ground

Selection

WISH AGAIN 6/1 Each Way

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