Mathematician 1316 | 25-07-2012 |
No Selection Today
No Mention Today
T o d a y 's O p t i o n s
I decided to do a quick message today having had a break on
Tuesday. The day off helped and I felt it was worth a quick
message without getting too detailed. I look at the weekend
cards and it's mouth watering again. Saturday looks brilliant but overloaded again. I could get four strong messages from just that one day but that will no doubt be a race against the clock and a case of picking the right races. Not sure how it's going to map out this week. There will be a Sunday message again and if I get my timing right we could have a good week.
That good week wont start today. Its a very Insipid message. Only 4 basic previews today. Its nothing more than a short message to get some rust off and get some practice. Wanted to get right for the rest of the week so had a good break and started it very late and it's no more than a quick 4 race scan.
Catterick 2.30 - TRICKY MADAM 11/10
Lingfield 2.40 - LABIENUS 3/1
Lingfield 5.10 - GHOST TRAIN 7/4
Leicester 6.40 - FINAL DELIVERY 13/8
Four short prices today. I want at least two winners from 4
races. No interest in a full bet at the prices. Not interested in any each way doubles much as they would make plenty of sense. Bottom line is that its a half baked message thats only come up with short prices and its tomorrow onwards that I am more interested in as today is only a play around.
M o n d a y 's S u m m a r y
I took Tuesday off and that leaves just Mondays message to
review. Possibly it was one message too far after a long week. There had been some very good results last week but there's often a twist in the tail and that was Red Senor who was our main bet. I dont think he ran badly at all he just couldnt pass any of the horses ahead of him and He goes down as a loser. He was the choice of two bets. The alternative bet Soopacal hacked up. I'm sure many backed him and made a profit on the day but I wish I'd have advised you to bet him to pay for stakes on the main bet or had the sense to have included him in the bet with a win-win-each way double bet. That strategy would have turned a losing bet into a winning one whilst also
reducing the risk considerably. Not a great piece of staking.
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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S
C a t t e r i c k 2.30
9/4 Chant, 5/2 Tricky Madam, 11/4 Juana Belen
5/1 Bear Totem, 20/1 Poppy´s Purse, 25/1 Special Report.
This is a 2yo seller over 7f. Shapes up like a 2 horse race. With TRICKY MADAM having experience and a recent
race I would avoid an unraced JUANA BELEN. There are
unraced fillies winning 7f sellers but Catterick is not the best place for inexperienced horses. In 35 sellers here all unraced horses of any sex were 0-22 and I'd feel there is too much risk with JUANA BELEN. Anything around a
price of evens looks generous for TRICKY MADAM.
Selection - TRICKY MADAM
L i n g f i e l d 2.40
9/4 Bay Laurel, 4/1 Great Run, 6/1 Labienus
10/1 Lord Of Leitrim, 12/1 Peace Treaty, 14/1 Progenitor
14/1 Titled Gent, 16/1 Canadian Run, 16/1 Elvin, 16/1 Hadeeya 16/1 Pink Mischief, Alpine Mysteries, 100/1 Tough Question.
This is a 7f maiden for 2 year olds. I ran some profiles
and considered the prices and risks involved and decided
that BAY LAUREL didn't really offer me enough. Not
a negative but as a favourite I wanted more. I respected
GREAT RUN and he has a solid each way chance. Only
marginally better was LABIENUS but he was better and
he may appeal to some who like betting each way in a
maiden at these prices. I think one of these has every
hope of beating Bay Laurel. Best profile is LABIENUS.
L i n g f i e l d 5.10
11/4 Ghost Train, 6/1 Cheers, 6/1 Flashbang
8/1 Proper Charlie, 10/1 Amba, 10/1 Chjimes
10/1 Cliffords Reprieve, 10/1 Hoover, 10/1 Waterloo Dock
16/1 Stevie Gee, 25/1 Elhamri, 33/1 Alfresco.
This is a 6f hndicap. The 3 year old GHOST TRAIN is
interesting. He comes out well with good recent run and
I won't be surprised if he takes this. There is definately
some weakness in the profiles of FLASHBANG as a filly
winning last time without a break and CHEERS as a filly
down from 8f to 6f. WATERLOO DOCK is wrong as a
7yo absent 105 days. There are several others who have
fitness and wellbeing question marks. I wouldnt say he's
outstandng value but GHOST TRAIN looks quite solid.
I looked at similar 3 year olds with a good recent race
and 8 or more runs that year and found a 5-11 record.
Selection - GHOST TRAIN
L e i c e s t e r 6.40
6/4 Final Delivery, 4/1 Future Wonder, 4/1 Mitie Mouse
7/1 Clowance Keys, 8/1 Mae Rose Cottage, 14/1 Armiger
33/1 Gadreel, 33/1 High Five Prince, 33/1 Peg Peg.
This is a 3yo selling rrace over a Mile. I'm opposing the
filly FUTURE WONDER with only 1 run this season as
these types have very weak profiles. CLOWANCE KEYS
also came out as a little vulnerable coming from a maiden
with 3 runs and well beaten in that race. MITIE MOUSE
has a much safer profile and should not be underestimated
but FINAL DELIVERY clearly has the best chance and is
running at a level he can win at. MITIE MOUSE could be
a good place bet in a split stake with FINAL DELIVERY
if that bet appeals. Otherwise FINAL DELIVERY to win.
Selection - FINAL DELIVERY
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