1 Selection Today

Southwell 2.30 - BLUE MOON 4/1

Southwell 3.35 - JAY JAYS JOY 10/1

Win Bet on both Horses

Each Way Double on Both



I warned you it would be short today and there are
only two main previews and a few other bits to say.
No interest at all in the vast majority of the small
field National Hunt Races. It is short and selective
for good reasons and not much interests me. This
may be the first of two or three messages that are
underwhelming and contain less than they usually
might and thats down to seasonal stat adjustments.


I fancy BLUE MOON and JAY JAYS JOY today.
There are risks with both. You can argue there is
a slight doubt with BLUE MOON being a filly and
not having ran her since her debut but I think she
could have a bit too much class in a race where I
see many unfit horses. JAY JAYS JOY is risky as
well and could well flop but I like his chance even
if I have to trust that his last race isnt a fluke. It
is not as safe a bet today as I'd like but we have a
50/1 + double as a possibility and this staking has
allowed me not to take too heavy a risk on either
horse and still allowed the chance of a big payout.


The standard stakes for this type of bet. If your
normal stake is £10 then it's £3 win on both the
horses and a £2 Each Way double as well.





T o d a y 's I s s u e s


Happy New Years everybody and lets hope 2012
is going to be our best yet . We start this new year
in fine form and in good shape. I will discuss more
about last year and this year more in the next few
days and weeks. I just want to get this short period
of bank holidays out of the way first before I do it.


I can tell you that 2011 was a winning year. I shall
post all the bets on the forum in the next few days.
Looking back we had our bad time in May and June
and that did set us back. We have recovered though
and the second half of the year has been strong and
after breaking level in July we have made profits in
every month from August through to December so
we are on a winning run of five months. More time
to look at all aspects of last season in a few days.


The January 1st message is always a very hard one
to do. Partly because it comes after several days of
busy cards and I'm usually tired around this time so
it is no surprise to me that I am flagging a bit. Then
we have the ssue all horses have their birthday on
January 1st so those 2 year olds running yesterday
are now 3 year olds and so on. This causes me big
problems until I get used to these changes and I'd
expect that to take a couple of days. What it does is
Slow me down a great deal. Thats why messages I
do on this day are usually shorter and lacking any
edge. It always happens like that and thats why I
don't plan to fight it this year. I'm planning only the
bare basics today and hardly doing any previews.



F r i d a y s R e v i e w

I think I can call Saturday a score draw given results
and happy enough with that. SAFARI SUNSEEKER
won easily and paid for COMPTON TARGET's bet
and the Mentions cancelled each other out. We had
EVEN BOLDER as the main bet of the day. He ran
well and collected the place money and although he
managed only second we nicked a little bit. I wasn't
happy that a few minutes before the race there was
a late jockey change and our horse was ridden by a
different pilot one I do not trust. In the end he did
not ride a very good race but the horse had enough
class to comfortably frame. We wouldn't have won
as the winner looks progressive but it never looked
like a bet that would ever be in trouble and looking
back he was certainly worth a bet at a decent price.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



C h e l t e n h a m 12.30

This Novice Hurdle can't be sorted out with any degree
of accuracy or confidence. I would look for an each way
bet against favourite Master Of The Game. Horses aged
6 or more first time out do Not score well and there is
too much quality in this race to risk him and I think he
is priced up on his trainers name. I would oppose him
with something each way. No idea what with. I would
have to guess and thats BARBATOS each way.


E x e t e r 12.40

I''d be surprised if AFRICAN BROADWAY didnt win
this. His rivals include bumper runners and horses well
beaten last time. Without a last time out winner here
ton test him I suspect with his Graded run he may be
just too strong. AFRICAN BROADWAY to win.



C h e l t e n h a m 1.35

5/1 Minella Theatre, 6/1 Richard´s Sundance, Runshan
9/1 Mostly Bob, 12/1 Etxalar, Hello Bud, 12/1 Nikola
12/1 Prophete De Guye, 12/1 The Sawyer, 12/1 Wogan
16/1 Checkerboard, 16/1 Mon Mome, 20/1 Le Burf.

* This is a Handicap Chase around 3m 2f
* It is a Class 2 race and we have just 27 similar races
* There are a few here that may lack fitness
* One stat to bear in mind is about exposed horses aged 10 +
* Look at exposed horses with 21 + career starts aged 10 +
* Those that had 1-2 runs that season were 0-47
* I would want to avoid 10yo's and older with 1-2 runs
* MON MOME is surely not fit enough to win aged 12
* HELLO BUD is too old at 14 to win a Class 2 here
* He is also underraced for his age
* WOGAN wouldn't interest me with 1 run this season
* Not as a 12yo and without Grade 1-2 backclass
* NIKOLA is exposed and fails that statistic
* His last run also undermines his chance
* On a career high mark hs looks wrong
* LE BURF is exposed aged 10 + with 1-2 runs that year
* That makes him statistically unsafe and he looks unafe
* He's out of the weights and his Cheltenham form a concern
* MINELLA THEATRE is exposed with 1 run this year
* He is only 8 but it's not a good profile
* You have to worry about his Cheltenham form
* Pulled up both times in Handicaps
* He also ran below form in a Novice Chase here as well
* You can throw in a stamina doubt as well
* I Wasnt keen on MINELLA THEATRE
* I'd rather have more runs this season
* PROPHETE DE GUYE flopped last time out
* That put an end to his winning run
* Statistically there are problems with him
* He is exposed yet hasnt run beyond Class 2 yet
* All similar exposed horses had more backclass than him
* PROPHETE DE GUYE also has stamina issues
* His Sire hasnt bred a winner at 3m 2f or more yet
* CHECKERBOARD doesnt offer me enough
* Recently downgraded stables I think others are best
* MOSTLY BOB was progressive last year
* It all went wrong after that and he regressed
* This year was about trying to regain his form
* No doubt and his confidence but the jury's out
* Two poor runs this year with some mistakes
* Not sure MOSTLY BOB jumps well enough
* His 2 races at Cheltenham both ended in bad defeats
* That stops MOSTLY BOB being shortlisted

S h o r t l i s t

* THE SAWYER comes good in January
* The issue is whether next time is the time to catch him
* I felt he probably needed another run as a 12yo
* There is also a genuine stamina doubt over this far
* His sires only winners beyond 3m 1f came in Class 5 or lower
* ETXALAR has a reasonable profile
* I found 2 similar 8 year olds winning
* They did come from Grade 1 tracks though
* ETXALAR didnt which takes some shine off his chance
* Also dislike the two runs he had at Cheltenham
* One included being well beaten in this last year

S e l e c t i o n

* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE is an exposd 10yo
* He also has 2 runs this season and no winners did that
* That puts him in an unsafe place statistically
* That said he was 2nd in last years race with less weight
* He only had 1 prep race last season as well
* Has to be said He was unexposed last season
* His prep runs were also much better last season
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE is not a negative
* I'd shortlist him but statistically he has flaws

* RUNSHAN is an exposed 12yo
* He has never run in a Graded race before
* That lack of backclass is a worry for a horse so exposed
* There was 1 winner that won without that backclass
* That horse also had 4 runs that season and came down in trip
* RUNSHAN's 4 runs this season is a big help
* Also encouraged by his Cheltenham form

S e l e c t i o n

RUNSHAN 8/1 Win Bet
RICHARD´S SUNDANCE 6/1 Saver Bet






C h e l t e n h a m 2.10

I thought about previewing the race but didnt have the
angles I wanted. I tried for a shortlist. Decided to field
against Duke Of Lucca with 3 Chase starts. The recent
winners of this had 14 18 16 14 25 11 9 17 chase runs
and there are a few I would question with under 9 chase
runs. That statistic is the key to the race because if it
holds up there are several that can be taken out. Even
with just 7 runs I'd shortlist GHIZAO but the horse I'd
argue looked the best profile was CALGARY BAY.




S o u t h w e l l 2.30

7/2 Blue Moon, 9/2 William Haigh, 6/1 Call To Reason
6/1 Reve De Nuit, 6/1 Standpoint, 8/1 Trans Sonic
10/1 Toto Skyllachy, 14/1 Justonefortheroad
16/1 Benandonner, 20/1 Tevez.

This race is littered with horses with dodgy profiles and
Several look weak. I include WILLIAM HAIGH winning
at 12f last time and dropping to a Mile. There are some
serious fitness question marks about REVE DE NUIT as
he has a huge absence. TEVEZ is an older horse with an
absences. TRANS SONIC has a very weak profile from
6f as a 9yo. I dont want to be with CALL TO REASON
a filly with very few recent runs and a break. I want to
oppose TOTO SKYLLACHY who has plenty to prove.
Two stand out to me statistically in BLUE MOON and
STANDPOINT. You can argue BLUE MOON isn't the
best handicapped but it has to be said she's down in class
and STANDPOINT has to go up in distance. I would be
with STANDPOINT as the saver here around 7/2 but I
felt BLUE MOON had the best chance and is my bet.



S o u t h w e l l 3.35

9/4 Mataajir, 5/1 Spacecraft, 8/1 Billy Cadiz, 8/1 Jay Jays Joy
10/1 Look For Love, 10/1 Phoenix Flame, 12/1 Aggbag
12/1 Like A Boy, 12/1 Monsieur Pontaven, 14/1 Bentley
25/1 Dado Mush, 33/1 Roman Sioux, 50/1 Le Reveur.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-56 rated horses
* Several of these dont look fit or ready to win
* ROMAN SIOUX has ran once since 2010
* He has shown nothing to suggest he can win this
* AGGBAG is 8 and absent 173 days
* Thats too long for a horse his age with limited backclass
* DADO MUSH is 9 and has ran twice in just 2 years
* LE REVEUR is a 10yo showing nothing at the moment
* LIKE A BOY was beaten 21 lengths 4 days ago
* I looked at 4 year olds beaten 10 + lengths last time
* Those running within a week were 0-36
* LIKE A BOY was beaten too far too recently
* BENTLEY drops down from a 12f race
* No horse aged 8 or more won doing that
* Only 1 exposed horses did that and he was 6
* He had a very recent run and this horse looks wrong
* PHOENIX FLAME also drops down from a 12f race
* No fillies managed that and she is also unsafe
* I looked at horses beaten 10 + lengths over 7f last time
* There was a bad record and those with 13 + runs are 1-127
* MONSIEUR PONTAVEN fails that and doesnt look right
* LOOK FOR LOVE almost fails that too
* LOOK FOR LOVE is 4 and comes from 7f
* He has 13 + career starts and form in a Class 4 race
* Similar horses had a 2-82 record
* Both those horses won last time out
* LOOK FOR LOVE was beaten over 9 lengths
* Not convinced he ran well enough last time

P o s s i b l e s

* BILLY CADIZ is an exposed 7yo from a 7f race
* I looked at all horses aged 7 + coming from 7f
* There was a 4-136 record which isnt great
* All 4 winners had form in at least a Class 3 race before
* BILLY CADIZ hasn't been out of a Class 5 race yet
* None came from a Conditions race like him
* Not a negative but he has a lot to answer

* SPACECRAFT is 5 and won an 8f handicap last time
* I looked at similar types with 13-20 runs
* I found a 1-9 record and SPACECRAFT is a positive
* My biggest issue with him is Stall 1
* In 28 handicaps since 2011 with 9 + runners stall 1 is 1-26
* Most recent winners were drawn 9 11 4 5 11 8 14 9 8
* I would prefer a higher draw

* MATAAJIR won 4 days ago so must be respected
* That race was over 7f last time so there is a doubt
* I looked at 4 year olds winning 7f races last time
* There were 3 winners but they all had 9 + runs
* MATAAJIR only has 5 career starts
* I looked at 4 year olds from 7f races with under 9 runs
* There were winners but none won last time out
* None had more than 9st either
* Foolish to rule MATAAJIR out as he's progressive
* He could be well treated as well
* Against him is there are no similar winners

S e l e c t i o n

* JAY JAYS JOY could be interesting with a recent run
* In the summer he was running well at Southwell rated 58-65
* He wouldnt be allowed to run today if he was rated that high
* Not prolific form but easily good enough to win this
* In July he moved from David Barons to Paul Midgley
* Paul Midgley has now raced him 4 times before
* There must have been a problem with him during that time
* His first 3 runs for Midgley were very poor and beaten miles
* There was much more encouragement on his last start
* He was 25/1 reflecting what dreadful form he had been in
* Last time he ran over this C+D in a slightly better race
* He ran a very encouraging 3rd that day
* Staying on well if he repeats that he will go close here
* JAY JAYS JOY may well be on the way back

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