No Selection Today

1 Mention Today

Split Stake Bet


Lingfield 1.40 - AMAZING WIN 4/1

Newbury 2.05 - LAMBORO LAD 9/1


Win Bet on Both

Each Way Double

Each £10 Bet should be £3 win £3 win
and a £2 each way double totalling £10






T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

It is a scrappy Saturday today as you'd expect 10 days before Cheltenham. Lots of small fields and not really my favourite tracks. It is hard work today and again a hatfull of winners is probably too much to expect so not a day to lose your head.

I have gone with a speculative bet today. Big rewards if they both win and happy enough if one wins. It's asking a lot but there are not many options today. I have gone with the two win bets and an each way double. I was tempted with adding Fair Along for 3 each way doubles but thats asking too much.



D o n c a s t e r

Not much here. So many past abandonments have skewered
the best angles. Some poorly framed races here. Reluctant to suggest you follow me in any race here. I think the 4pm is a race you can follow the message but its a pretty dismal card.


L i n g f i e l d

It's quite a Spitefull card at Lingfield. I like AMAZING WIN in the first race even if she is a filly and my replacement bet in the race and she has no experience of the track. She is in foal so that could either be a good or bad sign. NEWS DESK offers a W W W W profile in the 5.05pm but too short for a race like that and not really excited with my previews here.

K e l s o

Littered with small fields today which has spoilt the card. I should have the first winner. Consider following me at 3.35 with a place lay. The only meaty race is the 5.20 and don't feel I have made a good enough case there lacking negatives in the race. This isnt a card thats goingb to produce any bet.

N e w b u r y

Easily the most interesting card but the hardest one as well with the bigger fields. My angles tell me LAMBORO LAD
is worth an bet at 9/1 in the 2.05pm race. The 2.40 is not
bad for a Veterans Chase and I thought FAIR ALONG had
the best chance. I thought REBEL DANCER was the right
type of 7 year old in the 3.45pm handicap and appealed a
bit in an open handicap. There are options there but they
come in big field handicaps which are not easy at Newbury.




S t r o n g e s t S t a t i s t i c T o d a y

Lingfield 5.05

I suppose my best statistic has to involve the
favourite NEWS DESK at 5.05pm but she is a
short price and it wasn't a bet I wanted to have.

* Fillies winning 10f handicaps last time
* Under 7 career starts
* 1-2 runs this season
* 8st 9lbs or more
* These horses had a W W W W record
* NEWS DESK shares that profile


F r i d a y 's S u m m a r y

One of those messages where I got the main bet right but
the bottom of the message sunk without trace. I predicted
a difficult day and I didn't think I was going to have many
winners. I would have expected more than I got thought.
It was an un impressive message overall. REDAIR the bet
won. Very pleased he proved the statistic right and broke
a short spell of a couple of losers. He just about paid for the loser on Thursday. I hate putting them up at shorter prices. Too much stress and with a delayed race and the horse starting slowly it was all too unpleaant. He rescued a weak message but I'd have prefered better other results.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



L i n g f i e l d 1.40

100/30 Amazing Win, 9/2 Lady Mango, 11/2 Super Frank
6/1 Blueberry Fizz, 9/1 Avonvalley, 9/1 Microlight
9/1 Mr Skipiton, 10/1 Overwhelm, 11/1 Divine Rule
20/1 Sailing North, 25/1 Hand Painted, 33/1 Prize Point.

This is a 6f handicap. Made harder by not having a clear draw bias at the moment. I think you can win from anywhere. This will be a tough start to the card. LADY MANGO came out like one winner. Fillies aged 4 like her don't score that well and I'm not that impressed with her profile as the only winner like her had 13lbs less weight. I don't want OVERWHELM as a female from a 5f race. BLUEBERRY FIZZ is a 4yo filly from 7f and I can't find a winner like her. All 30 that raced within the past
month lost and I see her as unproven. HAND PAINTED and
PRIZE POINT look outclassed. I don't think MICROLIGHT is
running well enough at the moment. SAILING NORTH is not
a negative but all 4 year olds overcoming defeats as heavy last time as he faced did have more backclass and had won before. I can't match DIVINE RULE to any winner from a 7f selling race and whilst I could overlook that he has never raced over 6f before. Quite interesting that neither did his father and it's telling me to rule him out. MR SKIPITON falls short with a lack of backclass and without a recent race I can't match him.

* SUPER FRANK - His last win gets him shortlisted
* No last time out winner was aged 9 or more though
* AMAZING WIN - 1 similar winner with less weight
* He hasnt raced here before

Selection

AMAZING WIN Win Bet

Had to Edit this as AVONVALLEY was to have been the
joint selection in a split stake bet with AMAZING WIN
but she isn't running I am left with AMAZING WIN who
I do quite like and who looks progressive.




K e l s o 1.55

5/4 Absinthe, 3/1 Samstown, 4/1 Makbullet
11/2 Jet Master, 8/1 Chookie Hamilton
66/1 Heart O Annandale, 66/1 Smart Ruler
100/1 Just Stripe.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle and I think the favourite looks
too strong. I dont like SAMSTOWN statistically. I looked
at 5 year olds down in distance with just one run this season and found a weak record. Those beaten last time as he was were 0-38 and he looks unsafe. CHOOKIE HAMILTON is
8 and they have appaling records. Those with fewer than 4
runs were just 1-140 and none had under 3 runs as he does.
I see MAKBULLET and JET MASTER as unimpressive if
not quite negatives. I think ABSINTHE really ought to be
winning this. He comes from a strong race at Kelso where
the first two looked decent and he looks well placed here.
I will be dissapointed if ABSINTHE doesnt win around 6/5.

Selection - ABSINTHE



N e w b u r y 2.05

4/1 Buck Magic, 5/1 Tarvini, 7/1 Benbens, Cinderella Rose
15/2 Godsmejudge, 9/1 Super Villan, 10/1 Lamboro Lad
12/1 Imperial Circus, Theatrical Star, 16/1 Love Of Tara
16/1 Pavillon Bleu, Always Waining, 25/1 Blazing Buck
25/1 South O´the Border.

This 3m Handicap Hurdle looks too competetive when there
are no past renewals of this race. Just wanted to make one or two quick points having looked at all similar races. TARVINI came out badly as very few exposed horses win these races if having an absence of more than 7 weeks. You want backclass in Graded form with this profile and he lacks that and I didn't see him as safe enough. ALWAYS WAINING looks wrong as an exposed 11 year old with an absence. LOVE OF TARA is the wrong type as a mare from a Graded hurdle. I'd be against PAVILLON BLEU and SOUTH O´THE BORDER. Not keen on THEATRICAL STAR hammered in a Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f last time. SUPER VILLAN is wrong with just 2 runs so far this year from a Novice Handicap. BUCK MAGIC is hard to read. I am going to oppose him but I could be wrong and it was close. I looked at 6 year olds from handicaps with just 1 run this season. Those that had 4-5-6 runs were excellent so he is not far away with 3 runs. If you take those with between 3 and 4 runs the only winner had 12lbs less weight and 1 more run as well. I just think BUCK MAGIC falls short. BENBENS has a testing absence and all similar 7 year old winners with a
break like that had Grade 1 form and he doesnt.


S h o r t l i s t

BLAZING BUCK - GODSMEJUDGE -IMPERIAL CIRCUS
CINDERELLA ROSE - LAMBORO LAD

* LAMBORO LAD is 7 years old with 9-20 runs
* He comes from a 3m Handicap Hurdle
* He has Class 2 form and no higher
* He runs within 2 weeks
* He has 11st or less
* He was beaten last time but ran within 12 lengths
* He has 4 + runs that season
* Only two horses had that profile in similar races
* Both horses won.
* LAMBORO LAD has the best profile of the 5
* Not convinced he has the class to win off bottomweight
* He does have the best profile though and is a fair price

Selection - LAMBORO LAD 10/1 + Each Way





No real interest in the Doncaster 2.20 especially with only
7 runners. I would avoid AL CO and A HIT IS A HIT with
long absences. I'd also avoid ALLOW ME as he won a 19f
last time and its a difficult challenge to win again over 3m. I wasnt convinced that SIR HARRY ORMESHER would be
ready to win today. Any of the other 3 could win and I did
not have a preference so not going for a selection today.




N e w b u r y 2.40

11/4 Niche Market, 5/1 Fair Along, 5/1 Marufo
11/2 Hello Bud, 15/2 Ouzbeck, 9/1 Dom D´orgeval
10/1 Blazing Bailey, 10/1 Mark The Book
14/1 Wogan, 20/1 Mumbles Head.

This is a Veterans Handicap Chase where every runner is aged 10 or more. Not enough of these races to start looking at big angles. Just want to make a few observations. I looked at the record of winners in these unique handicaps. None were as old as HELLO BUD who I dont fancy with an absence. I'd oppose MUMBLES HEAD who hasn't run well recently. I wouldnt be with any 12yo debutant like DOM D´ORGEVAL. I also think I'd oppose NICHE MARKET. He has a nasty absence and also a career high mark. He's won only twice but with recent races and Paul Nicholls has often said he is a stuffy horse and a hard one to get fit. He has all wins goung the right handed whis he doesn't get today and he hasn't won from his mark. Many will want to be with BLAZING BAILEY but until I see more he is
not a horse I'd want to risk always promising never delivering. The Veterans Chases run between January and July show that no winners won absent more than 96 days so OUZBECK may be best avoided with 147 days off the track.

* MARK THE BOOK - Biggest doubt may be the ground
* FAIR ALONG - Shortlisted but 85 day absence
* MARUFO - Interesting with recent run if handles the track
* WOGAN - With a recent run he is shortlistable

Not convinced about WOGAN who is out of the handicap. I
dont to risk MARK THE BOOK on the ground. MARUFO is
tempting but he has just been raised for losing and I dont see the track as a positive. He hasnt done that well her before so with his best form on sharper tracks I have my doubts. What swings it to FAIR ALONG is his brilliant Hennessy Third. It was a very creditable run and half of these wouldnt dream of even running in that race. Dont like the absence and I'd like a couple fewer runners as he likes a small field but if he can run close to his Hennessy form then he will just about win.


Selection - FAIR ALONG




L i n g f i e l d 2.50

6/4 Dorothy´s Dancing, 9/2 Prigsnov Dancer
6/1 Deveze, 6/1 Good Timin´, 8/1 Porthgwidden Beach
8/1 Slatey Hen, 25/1 Mandy´s Hero, 33/1 Green Warrior.

* This is a 5f Handicap for horses rated 0-58
* PRIGSNOV DANCER won a 6f race last time
* DOROTHY´S DANCING won a 6f race last time
* There were 5 winners who won 6f races last time
* They were all male and aged 4 or 5
* None were fillies like DOROTHY´S DANCING
* None as old as PRIGSNOV DANCER
* Both horses are therefore unsafe without being negatives
* MANDY´S HERO looks outclassed
* GREEN WARRIOR looks outclassed
* SLATEY HEN is an exposed 4yo filly from 6f
* There were winners doing that but none like her
* Those running within 2 weeks had a 0-23 record
* That just makes her look a bit shaky

S h o r t l i s t

* DEVEZE is a 4yo filly unexposed from 5f
* With a recent run I liked her profile
* DEVEZE is one to consider
* PORTHGWIDDEN BEACH has a similar profile
* There was 1 winner like her
* GOOD TIMIN´ - 2 similar winners and a good profile

Selection

I read Gary Moore saying "Dorothy's Dancer will win again"
and she may well do as she doesn't fails important angles she is just not like any winners. I have three shortlisted with fair profiles so happy to take her on when a short priced horse. Going with a split stake bet as a bit of a guess here.

Split Stake

DEVEZE 5/1
GOOD TIMIN 5/1




K e l s o 3.05

This Handicap Chase is a race we can do very little with.
Just wanted to point out that POLAR GUNNER is a 15yo
which is far too old for me. There have been six winners
aged 15 win races in the last couple of decades. None won
at a distance as short as this. He may have won this when
he was 14 years old last year but he is trying to be the 1st 15 year old to win any race short of 19 furlongs and that leaves me cold. Tempted by FREDDIE BROWN but the
past winners all had more chasing experience and it may
be that RED TANBER is likely to go and win yet again.




N e w b u r y 3.10

4/1 Aerial, 7/1 Fine Parchment, 7/1 Pasco, 8/1 Araldur
8/1 Dave´s Dream, 8/1 Mad Max, 9/1 Fix The Rib
10/1 Pickamus, 12/1 Rileyev, 14/1 Passato, 16/1 Dan Breen
16/1 Woolcombe Folly, 33/1 Crescent Island.

This is a Grade 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 4f. Paul Nicholls
has won this several times before and I think he might again. This is wide open. I dont fancy MAD MAX with one run so far this year. DAVE´S DREAM doesnt appeal up in trip and when so unreliable. PASSATO looks out of his depth. I can see the agument for the Pricewise horse ARALDUR but his price has gone and his other pick FINE PARCHMENT has a 10lbs claimer hardly ideal off his light weight in a Graded race. I think I am going to stay with the Paul Nicholls yard. My biggest problem is the horse I like PASCO is the second string with Ruby Walsh riding AERIAL. I can't say anything negative to say about AERAIL. I opposed him last time but would give him every chance in a race that's often gone to a lightly raced chaser. I do like PASCO as well though. This is his track. He needs Flat tracks and his record at Newbury is a brilliant 2 W W W 2 2 2 4. PASCO is also a horse that needs to be fresh and racing with an absence. It will be a long time before he gets his conditions again and I like him best.

Selection - PASCO



D o n c a s t e r 3.25

3/1 Mac Aeda, 4/1 Benny Be Good, 4/1 Junior
9/2 West End Rocker, 5/1 Ikorodu Road
8/1 Neptune Equester, 14/1 Pentiffic.

The Grimthorpe Chase is a small field this year and it does
not have the same feel as it usually has. Its a rubbish trends race anyway as the race has changed over the years. I didnt like BENNY BE GOOD from a tough handicap mark. I am
against JUNIOR who doesnt look fit to me. PENTIFFIC is
probably out of his depth looking at his last run. I dont see NEPTUNE EQUESTER as safe. I gave him one last chance
to win a 0-129 chase last time and he failed and this is now a harder race. I see IKORODU ROAD and MAC AEDA as
the sensible choices without exciting me. Dissapointing to
see no each way options so I will have a win bet and a saver.

Selection

MAC AEDA 4/1 + Win Bet
IKORODU ROAD 4/1 Saver



K e l s o 3.35

I don't see a straight forward passage to a shortlist in this Graded Novice Hurdle. Going to avoid a guess but what I really wanted was a match bet with Ulbatique in it as he's only a 4yo and this race is dominated by older horses and I see him as one to oppose. I think Ulbatique is the Place Lay of the day as long as he doesnt get much bigger. Will be surprised if he can cope with these. I did want a match bet and any of the main 4 runners would have really been a maximum bet match bet against him.



N e w b u r y 3.45

3/1 Balgarry, 9/2 Sire Collonges, 13/2 Dubai Crest
7/1 Ebanour, 9/1 Looks Like Slim, 9/1 Rebel Dancer
10/1 Orzare, 10/1 Zafranagar, 12/1 Nampour
14/1 King Zeal, 20/1 Manshoor.

* This is a 2m Handicap Hurdle for horses rated 0-132
* Looked at all similar races in Class 2-3-4
* The most important factor is the seasonal debutants
* BALGARRY has been absent 557 days
* SIRE COLLONGES is absent 331 days
* I cant find a 5yo winner with a long absence
* BALGARRY looks wrong to me and I'm opposing her
* No races in England he is hard to read but I dont like him
* SIRE COLLONGES has the better chance of the two
* Far from confidence about SIRE COLLONGES though
* I can't find a 6yo winner like him
* I'd be looking for an each way alternative
* ORZARE and MANSHOOR dont look safe enough
* I doubt they achieved enough last time out
* EBANOUR is 5 and down from a 2mm 4f Novice Hurdle
* He isnt the right sort of 5yo that managed that
* He has too many runs and too short an absence
* NAMPOUR - I'd prefer another run this year
* DUBAI CREST - Can't match him to a winner

S h o r t l i s t

ZAFRANAGAR - Respected
LOOKS LIKE SLIM 8/1 - Easily shortlistable
REBEL DANCER 10/1 comes out well
I have found 4 similar 7yo winners like him
One of those won this race in the Mid 1990's

Selection

REBEL DANCER 9/1 Each Way has the best profile


D o n c a s t e r 4.00

11/4 Aland Islands, 7/2 Amron Lad, 4/1 Pittodrie Star
5/1 Civil Unrest, 13/2 Tarantella Lady, 10/1 Mezzanisi
14/1 Keenes Day, Lowry Maher, 50/1 The Banana Man
66/1 Purlando, 66/1 Scourie Bay.

This is a Novice Hurdle just short of 2m 4f. Only a handfull can win this. I want to oppose PITTODRIE STAR. Partly because his profile is only average. Main though because his sire Chosir hasn't had a National Hunt winner beyond a 17f distance so far and may well fail for stamina. MEZZANISI was beaten too badly 2 weeks ago. TARANTELLA LADY is vulnerable as a 4yo filly up in distance. CIVIL UNREST should be there or therabouts. I'd rather not have a horse from a handicap but he was like one winner. Without him being very strong AMRON LAD wants respecting but I'm more drawn to ALAND ISLANDS. Not many profiles are like him but 6 year olds winning last time with long breaks and 2 career starts are 1-1 and thats gets him the verdict. I just favour ALAND ISLANDS but he has had an absence and with a doubtful stayer fancied I think the frame of the race allows for a split stake bet than looks that bit safer

Selection

ALAND ISLANDS 2/1 Win Bet
CIVIL UNREST Evens Place Bet



L i n g f i e l d 4.30

3/1 Maslak, 7/2 Broughtons Paradis, 7/2 Eagle Nebula
9/2 Kames Park, 6/1 Scribe, 16/1 Eurhythmic, Spiritual Art.

This is a 12f handicap for 0-70 rated horses. Dissapointing
frame to the race. I see SPIRITUAL ART as weak and not
as fit or in form as I'd want a mare to be. Horses coming in to these races from maidens do win but none of these were like either EURHYTHMIC or SCRIBE and I felt these had
too much to prove. KAMES PARK and EAGLE NEBULA
are older horses coming from Sellers and Claimers and that
is not the norm in these races and I couldn't match either.
I think BROUGHTONS PARADIS has a chance but she is
an older exposed mare absent more than a month and that
worries me. The odd mare has won doing that but she also
has a mark she has never won from before. I see MASLAK
as a reasonable option and close to top of the list. Perhaps we need a win and saver here as this is just so tactical.

MASLAK 7/2 Win Bet
EAGLE NEBULA 7/2 Saver Bet




D o n c a s t e r 4.35

3/1 Quicuyo, 3/1 Woody Waller, 5/1 Takeroc
5/1 Ultimate, 13/2 Get It On, 9/1 Sports Line
10/1 Pure Faith, 20/1 Silk Drum.

This 2m Handicap Chase is quite open. Short history
to it and the past winners had these things in common.

* They were all unexposed
* They all had between 6 and 10 Chase starts
* They all ran reasonably well last time
* They all ran within 6 weeks
* They all had form in at least
* There are 3 horses that share this profile
* SILK DRUM - WOODY WALLER - GET IT ON
* WOODY WALLER each way is my selection



L i n g f i e l d 5.05

6/4 News Desk, 7/2 Arte Del Calcio, 6/1 Santadelacruze
8/1 Priestley´s Reward, 10/1 Sheila´s Buddy, 14/1 Kelpie Blitz 14/1 King Of Wing, 20/1 King´s Wharf.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 10f
* I'd not want to oppse NEWS DESK here
* NEWS DESK won last time and comes out well
* Fillies winning 10f handicaps last time
* Under 7 career starts
* 1-2 runs this season
* 8st 9lbs or more
* Similar fillies had a W W W W record


K e l s o 5.20

11/4 Sundown Trail, 9/2 Pyjama Game, 13/2 Four Fiddlers
13/2 Highrate, 8/1 Shan Blue, 10/1 Browneyes Blue
10/1 Political Paddy, 12/1 Currahee, 14/1 Glaced Over
16/1 Master Act, 20/1 Mini Beck.

This race is a 2m 6f Handicap hurdle and probably a little
too ambitious. I wasn't going to do this race. Initially the race interested me as I wanted to oppose SHAN BLUE in
a match bet as he has 1 run this year and comes up in trip.
I abandoned that idea as SHAN BLUE's profile was just a
bit better than I had hoped and POLITICAL PADDY the
horse in that match bet also had a poor profile. That just
put me off but I liked neither profile enough and wouldnt
select either as the selection in the race. A Lighter raced
hurdler always wins this so CURRAHEE, GLACED OVER
MINI BECK and BROWNEYES BLUE all look the wrong
types. I'd shortlist SUNDOWN TRAIL and HIGHGATE
but I would go with PYJAMA GAME each way. I backed
him last time each way and he finished 3rd and that race
will bring him on. PYJAMA GAME each way for me.

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