One Bet Today

Wolverhampton 2.50

POWERFUL WIND 5/1

Each Way



Today's Options

No Flat racing on turf so it is one sand and two National Hunt today. I havent much at Plumpton. There is a bit more to say at Kempton but its still quite early and some of the questions don't have answers just yet. Done a bit at Wolverhampton as well and its made up for a mixture of 9 previews this Monday.

Wolverhampton 2.15

LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND 5/1 Each Way
DARK LANE 7/1 Saver Bet


Wolverhampton 2.50

POWERFUL WIND 5/1 Each Way



Tough today and I think I should stay with the All weather so I have listed two options. POWERFUL WIND is one of those
but I dont have any statistics to fall back on and betting blind in this race. My main doubt about the 2.15pm was whether the race was warmer than ideal. I thought two stood out and I am going with LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND each way with a saver on DARK LANE as well to beef up the safety side too but there are a lot of fancied dangers. I thought the bet that offered more was POWERFUL WIND as there is far less to beat. This horse will win If he gets his fractions right as he has gone off too fast before. If he can judge this right those that are going to try and catch him are inferior to his recent opponents and I think he can win this if he can judge it well.




S u n d a y 's M e s s a g e

Half a message on Sunday as my network provider went down
for hours. It looked doubtful there would even be a message at one stage so the day was written off. Quite surprised that the Cork Grand National forecast provided the 1st 2nd 4th and 5th albeit in the wrong order. In the end it showed the statistics in the race worked and were important and I might dip into a few of the bigger Irish races from time to time if the angles allow it.

****************************************************
****************************************************

P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


K e m p t o n 1.00

4/5 Ransom Note, 4/1 Golden Hoof, 6/1 Rysbrack
10/1 Nice To Have, 14/1 Excelsior Academy, 20/1 Chain Of Events 20/1 Conigre, 25/1 My Lord, 33/1 Leeroar, 50/1 Twoways.

Take your pick in this Novice Hurdle between the high class flat horse RANSOM NOTE who probably wont like the ground or a Nicky Henderson maiden bumper winner GOLDEN HOOF. The statistics can't help with the ground for one or how either might jump but it is very clear that if you run both profiles there are no winners like Golden Hoof and plenty like RANSOM NOTE. It is more than possible the well bred RYSBRACK could be a threat. I dont like his stable to be honest as they seem to underachieve but given his profile and the frame of the race I would consider
him each way. I came down on RANSOM NOTE though as the
class horse in the race as he has far more natural ability.

Selection

RANSOM NOTE 13/8




P l u m p t o n 1.20

3/1 Awesome Bella, 3/1 Smiling Lady, 9/2 Shantou Breeze
11/2 Carole´s Destiny, 8/1 Floral Spinner, 8/1 Ruby Glow
10/1 Frolic Along, 33/1 Winnie Wood, 100/1 Byresteads Farm
100/1 Forgotten Promise.

I can only guess in this Mares Maiden Hurdle. I can live with a horse from a bumper so CAROLE´S DESTINY is forgiven that but it bothers me that she won a Cheltenham Bumper yet her old trainer Nicky Henderson didnt keep her and she has ended up in a stable that havent had a winner before. That tells me I should be wary and I dont like her. SHANTOU BREEZE does not appeal beaten too far too recently. SMILING LADY might be the each way steal but shes tongue tied and up in trip so I'd be happier to risk AWESOME BELLA who may have more class than some of these. I feel the bets AWESOME BELLA .

Selection

AWESOME BELLA



K e m p t o n 1.30

4/1 Hindon Road, 4/1 Western King, 5/1 Foundation Man
11/2 Kaysersberg, 13/2 Abruzzi, 8/1 No Likey, 8/1 Vinnie My Boy 10/1 Barney Cool, 25/1 Lisheen Hill, Jax Teller, 66/1 Bach To Front.

This Novice Hurdle requires a guess with so many different
profiles and lightly raced horses. HINDON ROAD looks the
each way bet to me but I also drawn to the split stake bet
with FOUNDATION MAN the place bet around 10/11 with a
win bet on HINDON ROAD the other half of that bet.

Selection

HINDON ROAD 7/2 Win Bet
FOUNDATION MAN 10/11 Place Bet




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 1.45

5/1 Powerful Pierre, Sir Nod, 8/1 Gung Ho Jack, 8/1 Passionada 8/1 Seventeen Seventy, 8/1 Yellow Dandy, 10/1 Amosite 10/1 Dashwood, 12/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 12/1 Wiltshire Life 14/1 Cape Of Storms, 14/1 Chjimes, 14/1 Waabel.

This is a low grade handicap just short of 6 furlongs. There isn't a significant draw bias. I looked at every handicaps run between October and November that was short of 12f and in Class 5-6-7 and found older horses with absences struggled badly. I looked at horses aged 9 or more and they struggled badly when having an absent of more than 4 weeks or when lightly raced that year
and in this race CAPE OF STORMS has to go as a 9yo with a
long absence and SIR NOD is woefully underraced as he is 10
and comes up in trip with over 7 weeks off and just 3 runs since as far back as 2011. I looked for other horses I feel are unfit or underraced. I dont want AMOSITE a 6yo mare absent 62 days. PASSIONADA is too lightly raced this year as a 3yo filly. I can not make SEVENTEEN SEVENTY a negative but 94 days off the track for a 3yo with more than 13 runs is a big concern so I am opposing him. DASHWOOD is clearly underraced for an older horse up in trip with just a handful of runs in 2012. I see
WILTSHIRE LIFE as unsafe as a 3yo filly hammered last time
out and with an absence. I dont think 4 races this season will be enough for YELLOW DANDY an older filly who has to also come up in distance. CHJIMES and DICKIE LE DAVOIR have
weak profiles as older horses well beaten last time out and I'd be sceptical about their chances. I am shortlisting these three.

Shortlist

* WAABEL - Shortlisted despite only an average profile
* When you consider how many look wrong his chance increases
* Recent stable downgrade a concern

* GUNG HO JACK - Just about worth considering
* Seems unreliable and hard to read like many of his stable
* He is down in class and has backclass so want him on my side

* POWERFUL PIERRE - Profile average but looks the fittest horse
* Not been lucky with the draw today but has lots of positives

Selection

GUNG HO JACK 8/1 Win Bet
POWERFUL PIERRE 8/1 Saver




K e m p t o n 2.05

5/1 Muldoon´s Picnic, 5/1 Porters War, 6/1 Bowntobebad
6/1 Royal Wedding, 7/1 Moscow Chancer, 8/1 Storm Survivor
10/1 Giant O Murchu, 12/1 Health Is Wealth, 14/1 Chapel House 14/1 Forget It, 20/1 Foxesbow, 20/1 I Need A Hero.

Not much I wanted to say in this 2m 5f Handicap Chase as my
work produced no real surprises or anything significant. I ended up with 3 solid profiles but no significant positives or negatives. I dont want Giant O Murchu up in distance or Storm Survivor as he hasn't shown enough over fences yet. Bowntobebad has to go with just 1 previous chase start when tailed off. All the signs are that Royal Wedding will need the run. I would only be with PORTERS WAR, MOSCOW CHANCER - MULDOON´S PICNIC. It may depend on how well MULDOON´S PICNIC jumps or how well MOSCOW CHANCER handles the ground. The issue with PORTERS WAR is will he regress from his seasonal debut as a horse downgrading stables recently. All things equal I will go with an each way bet on MOSCOW CHANCER from these 3.

Selection

MOSCOW CHANCER Each Way 7/1




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 2.15

5/1 Athwaab, 6/1 Dark Lane, 6/1 Lastkingofscotland, 7/1 Belinsky 7/1 Reposer, 8/1 Catalinas Diamond, 10/1 Just Breathe, 10/1 Trending 12/1 Auntie Mabel, 14/1 Fenella Fudge, 14/1 Miss Polly Plum 16/1 Keep It Dark, 25/1 Ishetoo.

This is division 2 of the 6f handicap run half an hour before. I certainly cant find a winner like JUST BREATHE a 3yo filly with a huge absence and just two career runs. There are several others in this race with just too long a break or underraced this year and not matchable to winners.
I'd oppose CATALINAS DIAMOND- MISS POLLY PLUM - REPOSER
ISHETOO and FENELLA FUDGE for these reasons. I cant find a 3yo filly like AUNTIE MABEL who only comes from a seller. I am nervous about BELINSKY whoo won last time out yet faces a 60 day absence which should test an exposed 5yo. KEEP IT DARK has a lot of weight for a 3yo with just 5 runs. I ran his profile carefully with 2 conclusions.
I wanted either more runs or a longer absence to match him

* ATHWAAB - Not like any winners as an exposed mare from 7f
* I felt she has an unsafe profile but I wouldn't rule her out
* TRENDING - Scrapes on the shortlist like 1 winner
* DARK LANE - Another very competent profile
* LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND - Solid profile and a big runner

Selection

£4 Each Way LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND 5/1
£2 Win DARK LANE 7/1



K e m p t o n 2.40

3/1 Black Thunder, 9/2 Beyond, 5/1 Medinas, 6/1 Bold Chief
10/1 Fox Appeal, Hi Note, 12/1 Mush Mir, 14/1 Our Bomber Harris 14/1 Pascha Bere, 16/1 Beside The Fire, 20/1 Cockney Trucker.

This is a very difficult 2m 5f handicap hurdle. I have looked at all of these races at this time of year. BLACK THUNDER has to be the sexiest horse as a 5yo coming from a Novice Hurdle last year without Graded for. Easy profile to read. There was a very bad record a few years ago for this type of horse but there have been a few winners in the last couple of years and so far horses with a very similar profile had a 5-54 record. Thats fine
but these had 11st - 11st 5lbs -10st 13lbs and 11st 4lbs so it wont be easy for BLACK THUNDER to carry 11st 12lbs. The impression I had was that it may well be worth considering a place bet on him rather than a win bet. I didn't like BEYOND who is impossible to assess. The only winner like MEDINAS did so with far less weight and his 10lbs rise for being beaten last time is a worry especially for a small horse. HI NOTE is unsafe as a 4yo filly coming up in trip. BOLD CHIEF comes from Novice Hurdles last year. I can find 6yo's doing that with
no Graded form before but the only 7yo's to do it like him did have Graded form and BOLD CHIEF does not. I have doubts
about FOX APPEAL needing another run this year before he
is fit and MUSH MIR being ready first time out. This looks a race to have a split stake in with the favourite as the place.

Selection

FOX APPEAL 8/1 Win Bet
BLACK THUNDER 4/6 Place Bet




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 2.50

7/4 Alaskan Bullet, 9/2 Powerful Wind, 11/2 Ice Trooper
13/2 Funcheon Vale, 13/2 Nine Before Ten, 8/1 Volcanic Dust
14/1 Choice Words, 20/1 First Fast Now, 20/1 Myjestic Melody 25/1 Deveze, 25/1 Rose Madder, 33/1 Simpson Millar.

This is a 5f selling race. Not many of the races are run at this time of year. The ratings suggest ALASKAN BULLET ought to just win from POWERFUL WIND. The issues for me is whether ALASKAN BULLET witrh a short absence and only a handful of runs this year will be fit enough to take advantage of being a better horse. The answer is so unclear but I would prefer the more solid option. NINE BEFORE TEN has a lot to do from a ratings perspective which wont be easy as a filly with a 44 day absence. CHOICE WORDS has limitations. I think the best option is an each way bet on POWERFUL WIND at 5/1.

Selection

£5 Each Way POWERFUL WIND 5/1



K e m p t o n 3.10

Evs Ghizao, 7/4 Kumbeshwar, 6/1 Hell´s Bay, 10/1 Maggio.

This is a Graduation Chase and this appears to be a match.
GHIZAO is the class horse who is racing for the first time in 10 months and KUMBESHWAR who is less able but who's
had a recent run. Interesting that KUMBESHWAR was not
an Arkle horse at the Cheltenham Festival and ended up in
the Grand Annual. GHIZAO was an Arkle horse and fancied
albeit in the 2011 Festival and clearly has the most class of the two. With KUMBESHWAR a small horse who may not
stay and with the past winners seasonal debutants I'd prefer to be with GHIZAO of the two and my guess is he will win.

Selection - GHIZAO

****************************************************
****************************************************