No Bets Today


Taunton has been abandoned tomorrow. There will be
No message Thursday. It leaves only Wolverhampton
and any thoughts I have there will be on the message
board. I need 3 days before Cheltenham to compile a
complete statistical preview of every festival race so
this is the perfect chance to grab some time on a low
key day and crack on with that. I'm not finding much
anyway and Wolves is my weakest track so I think it
is a good oppurtunity to concentrate on Cheltenham.



T o d a y 's O p t i o n s


Only Kempton today and seven previews as we continue
to wait and hope for any signs of a defrosting and warmer
period that will allow the National Hunt Racing to return.

Make no mistake Kempton has taken no prisoners today
and has cobbled together a very competetive card and it
hasn't helped that it's been meddled with to accomodate
the abandonments. Kempton isn't going to be easy today.

I have given it a good go and tried to unlock several races but I'm under no illusions some races are bolted tight and there is an uncomfortable underlying feel of randomness again today. My head tells me wait again for more racing and more choice and dont expect to perform miracles on days like this. It's unpalatable but I'm afraid it is sensible. Have a play by all means but its not a serious betting day.





No Match Bets


No Negatives Today




S t r o n g e s t S t a t i s t i c T o d a y

Kempton 4.30

I could be weak here today as my statistic is based on
a small sample size and its a small field with only two
horses I liked. That said I will give it a go. I looked at
all Fillies like PALE ORCHID that won 6f handicaps
last time out and then tried to win 7f handicaps after.

I found a 0-11 record with all similar types. The last
to fail was only last Month (Chambles) and the record
of all the 11 losing fillies was 3 2 6 2 7 7 3 4 8 7 3. I
will make Pale Orchid underpriced and try and beat her.


T u e s d a y ' s R e v i e w

Kept it quiet again yesterday. We landed on a couple of
winners in the message but I did say that was possible but
would be more a case of falling accidenty on them rather
than uncovering anything special. The match bet lost so
it certainly wasnt a good message but it was as good as I'd
have expected given the cards but it wasnt a busy day and
it was always a holding message waiting for better options.


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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


K e m p t o n 2.20

7/2 Bobbyow, 5/1 Porthgwidden Beach, 6/1 White Shift
13/2 Deveze, 8/1 Raimond Ridge, 10/1 Good Timin´
10/1 Pharoh Jake, 12/1 Silver Linnet, 14/1 Replicator
20/1 Jemimaville, 25/1 Green Warrior

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-50 rated horses
* The draw bias suggests avoid the very high draws
* I looked at 5f handicaps here with 9 + runners.
* Winners were drawn 8 2 4 7 1 11 6 2 2 6 4 3 5 1 1 5
* 15 of the last 16 races went to horses draw 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
* REPLICATOR has a bad draw in stall 12
* Statistically there are a couple of reasonably similar winners
* He isnt anything other than acceptable though
* Not good enough to overlook his draw
* Or his record at 5f a distance he is 0-13 over with no 1st-2nds
* WHITE SHIFT has a bad draw in stall 11
* She is an exposed 6yo mare
* I looked at all exposed mares from 6f races
* None were aged 5 or more (0-30)
* I dont trust that statistic but it's factual
* It also stops me from overlooking her draw
* She may also be best at 6f these days
* GREEN WARRIOR could have been better drawn
* He has a weak profile too finishing last in 3 recent runs
* GOOD TIMIN´ could have been better drawn too
* I looked at 4 year olds like him absent a month or more
* Similar 4 year olds with under 13 runs struggled
* There were 2 fillies doing it GOOD TIMIN´ is male
* The fillies also ran far better than he did last time
* The only male doing it was Shawkantango in 2011
* He was a seasonal debutant and came from a 3yo handicap
* GOOD TIMIN´ doesnt offer me enough
* JEMIMAVILLE is an exposed 5yo mare
* I looked at all exposed mares from 6f races
* None were aged 5 or more (0-30)
* None were beaten as far as she was last time
* None were maidens like her either
* SILVER LINNET is a mare absent 330 days
* No mares won absent more than 80 days
* No exposed mares won absent 7 weeks or more
* DEVEZE is a lightly raced 4yo filly from 5f
* There only winners like that all had more backclass
* They all ran better than she did last time as well
* DEVEZE isnt quite right
* PHAROH JAKE is an unexposed 4yo from a 6f race
* He has 7-12 runs and a recent race
* I found 1 similar winner and respect him
* BOBBYOW is an unexposed 4yo from a 6f race
* He has Class 4 form and a recent race
* I found several winners who were absent 2 + weeks
* Only found 1 winner like him with a recent run
* That horse won last time but he didn't
* BOBBYOW is a cautious positive
* PORTHGWIDDEN BEACH is a 4yo filly
* She comes from a 5f race without a run in 2 weeks
* The only winners managing this were far less exposed
* PORTHGWIDDEN BEACH is far more experience
* I can't match her to a winner
* That said not many tried to win with her profile
* She has been running well and can win a race like this
* I flagged her up last time as a horse of interest
* I would consider her as a saver
* RAIMOND RIDGE is 6 and comes from 6f
* He has Class 4 form and a recent race
* I found 3 winners with a similar profile
* RAIMOND RIDGE has a solid profile and is shortlistable
* The issue is will be wants a little further these days
* His 5f performances often rely on a fast pace and luck

Selection

RAIMOND RIDGE 9/1 Win Bet

PORTHGWIDDEN BEACH - Saver 11/2




K e m p t o n 2.50

7/2 Prickles, 5/1 The Catenian, 6/1 It´s Dubai Dolly
6/1 Laser Blazer, 7/1 Gay Gallivanter, 12/1 Delagoa Bay
14/1 Trecase, 16/1 Forbidden, 16/1 Sylas Ings, 25/1 Brent Pelham 25/1 Invent, 25/1 Le Reveur, 25/1 Miss Whippy, 33/1 Flotation.

* This is a 10f handicap for 0-50 rated horses
* IT´S DUBAI DOLLY - Wrong as exposed filly with absence
* FLOTATION - Not running well enough for a filly
* DELAGOA BAY - No 4yo filly won with an absence that long
* MISS WHIPPY - Mare out of form and hammered over 12f
* INVENT - 4 year olds absent 4 + months are 1-60
* INVENT has to go with that in mind and a bad draw
* LE REVEUR - Very hard to fancy
* He is 10 up in trip and well beaten last time
* BRENT PELHAM - I think he has a weak profile with 3 runs
* Especially with a long absence
* SYLAS INGS is unsafe from a 7f race
* He also has an absence and no winners are like him
* FORBIDDEN is 9 and lacks a recent race
* I wanted more backclass for a 9yo without a recent run
* GAY GALLIVANTER is a 4yo filly from a Mile race
* She has 13 + runs and just Class 4 form
* I found 2 similar winners with two differences
* None were maidens like GAY GALLIVANTER
* Both winners ran a bit better than she did last time
* I'd still see her as a positive though
* THE CATENIAN is 4 and drops from 12f
* I looked at all similar 4 year olds with under 13 runs
* Similar horses won 2 races
* Both ran within 2 weeks and he is absent 3 weeks
* Both were beaten under 2 lengths last time
* THE CATENIAN was beaten 4 + lengths
* Both had slightly less weight as well
* THE CATENIAN is almost right with 1 or 2 worries
* The other worry is a first run for a new stable
* LASER BLAZER is 4 and has 7 runs
* Looked at 4 year olds with 5-6-7-8 career runs
* Those with a race within 2 weeks did very well
* There was just one winner that won absent 2 + weeks
* That winner came from a maiden though
* I cant match him because of that
* TRECASE - Hard to read having been hurdling
* Dont have major problems with TRECASE
* I'd like a more orthadox profile but he is respected
* PRICKLES is an exposed 7yo mare
* She only has Class 5 form not much for a 7yo mare
* I'd have liked more backclass but I see few better options
* I would expect her to go close and at least place
* PRICKLES coud be the safest bet each way here

S e l e c t i o n

PRICKLES 5/1 Each Way





K e m p t o n 3.25

9/4 Lady Caprice, 6/1 Gin Twist 7/1 Dawn Lightning
7/1 Majestic Rose, 7/1 Redair 12/1 Rooknrasbryripple.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f
* I just ran some profiles to see what looked right
* I am against the fillies with absences here
* GIN TWIST - MAJESTIC ROSE are out
* ROOKNRASBRYRIPPLE - Wrong as filly from 7f
* REDAIR has an unsafe profile from a claimer
* I cant match her and wanted less weight too
* LADY CAPRICE - 1 winner like her with less weight
* Shortlistable for sure but I'd have liked more backclass
* DAWN LIGHTNING - Shortlistable but slightly unsafe

S e l e c t i o n

DAWN LIGHTNING 8/1

No strong profiles. Decided to take a chance at a
big price on DAWN LIGHTNING on the ground a
couple of recent winners came from recent 6f races
like her and every past winner dropped in distance.




K e m p t o n 3.55

11/8 Satwa Laird, 7/4 April Fool
3/1 Russian Ice, 16/1 Hand Painted.

This is a 7f Claiming race and a very small field. I oppose
HAND PAINTED as he is the worst horse at the weights
and looks short of fitness. RUSSIAN ICE didnt come out
well as a 4yo filly especially without a recent race when
exposed. I feel one of the others will win. APRIL FOOL
has a slightly better profile than SATWA LAIRD and is
a bigger price but SATWA LAIRD has a far better jockey
and that must make a big difference. Its a close decision
and decided to go with the jockey and SATWA LAIRD.





K e m p t o n 4.30

9/4 Discoverer, 3/1 Fairway To Heaven
3/1 Pale Orchid, 7/1 Adranian, 7/1 Right Divine
12/1 Mr Knightley.

No strong views in this 3yo handicap over 7f. Its clear
that PALE ORCHID is fancied. I looked at all fillies in
these races that won 6f handicaps last time out. I found
a 0-11 record and that puts me off her a bit. The last to
fail was only last Month (Chambles) and the record of
all the 11 losing fillies was 3 2 6 2 7 7 3 4 8 7 3 and as
3 started favourite I wasnt impressed. RIGHT DIVINE
didnt come out like a winner. There are better options
than MR KNIGHTLEY. I see ADRANIAN as likely to
find it hard to win a 6th race when so exposed and not
having a recent race. It may well be the horses from a
maiden have a stronger profiles than the handicappers.
I looked at male horses that won 7f maidens last time
like DISCOVERER. Those with 2 career starts and one
this year and a run within a month. I found an decent
W W 5 record from three runners. DISCOVERER is
a big runner here. FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN came out
very well as once raced horses are excellent in these
races and although I hate the stable I felt she was the
most interesting in a race I like the maidens runners.


FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN 3/1 Win Bet

DISCOVERER 4/1 Saver




K e m p t o n 5.30

9/2 Rightcar, 6/1 Belinsky, 6/1 Even Bolder , Les Verguettes 8/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 8/1 Dingaan, 10/1 Sherjawy
10/1 Whipphound, 16/1 Zip Lock, 25/1 Athwaab.

* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* There is a Draw bias over 6f here that may help
* Go back to the stalls being renumbered last April
* Since then we've had 48 handicaps at 6f with 9 + runners
* 47 of the 48 winners were drawn between stalls 1 and 9
* Only 1 winner was drawn in stalls 10 or more
* That winner was slightly fortunate
* I wouldnt want a horse drawn 10 or more

The Draw puts me off ZIP LOCK who also has just one run
since September. It puts me off ATHWAAB who is a mare
with a nasty absence. I dont see enough in SHERJAWY and
feel an 8yo going up in distance uninviting. I cant find any fillies like LES VERGUETTES winning from maidens. Not
easy to rule out RIGHTCAR but he fails to make the grade.
Not shortlisting him mainly because I have so many better
profiles on a busy enough shortlist but also because he has so little backclass and all exposed 5 year olds winning then trying to win again without a run in a week had more than he does. RIGHTCAR has never won in this class before so I feel I should look elsewhere. I have 5 easily shortlistable.

Acceptable profiles

* DICKIE LE DAVOIR - Profile is good enough to shortlist
* DINGAAN - 1 similar winner
* BELINSKY - Profile demands s a run within 14 days but has 17
* EVEN BOLDER - Can win in this class and profile fine
* WHIPPHOUND - Can't be dismissed

Selection

I am risking EVEN BOLDER as he loves right handed tracks
and needs a run within 2 weeks. He is also running in a lower level these days. Hard to win with but this track suits him so in a wide open race I just felt he had a decent chance today.



K e m p t o n 6.00

4/5/1 Lastkingofscotland, 5/1 Vhujon
11/2 Mack´s Sister, 6/1 Katmai River, 10/1 Dvinsky
12/1 Amazing Win, 12/1 Riflessione, 14/1 Sole Danser
16/1 Baby Dottie.

* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-69 rated horses
* Draw stats show avoid horses drawn 10 +
* LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND is the only horse drawn 10+
* May not be relevant with a handful of runners
* Statistically LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND is reasonable
* They suggest if there is a flaw he may have too much weight
* DVINSKY is having his 200th race today
* The race is called "Dvinsky´s 200th Run Racing Handicap "
* Statistically as a 11 year old he is shaky but not dead
* Horses aged 11 or more were 2-54 in similar races
* The last was Jonny Ebeneezer here at Kempton last year
* The two winners had absences of 3 and 12 days
* DVINSKY has 17 which isnt too much worse
* Not a negative but I'd have wanted a shorter absence
* SOLE DANSER - I oppose him with 1 run since last July
* AMAZING WIN looks too unsafe as a filly
* Especially one with an absence and down significantly in trip
* BABY DOTTIE - Opposed as a mare with 1 run since August
* MACK´S SISTER is a 5yo mare with only Class 5 form
* She has very little backclass for a mare
* I wanted more backclass or a recent run
* MACK´S SISTER is not a negative but her profile isnt strong
* KATMAI RIVER - Exposed 5yo down in distance
* Looked at all similar 5 year olds with Class 4 form
* There were 3 winners all ran within 7 days
* KATMAI RIVER has been absent 17 days
* He is a positive but I'd prefer a shorter absence
* RIFLESSIONE - 1 similar winner and respected
* I'd prefer a bit less weight given the choice
* VHUJON - Reasonable profile and is considered
* VHUJON has the safest all round profile

Selection

VHUJON Each Way 9/2

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