No Selections

6 Mentions Today


Good luck today everyone. You have to win early at this
festival or you are in trouble and have to reply on plenty
of luck later in the week. The first 2 days are crucial so
even if the bets are unpalatable they must be considered.
I'm sending it earlier than I said I would as its done early.

I'm forced into some "without the favourite" markets as
we have so many very short priced favourites today. It's
an unusually busy day. There will not be as many bets on
any of the other days. Don't worry about the volume of
bets. This week is a one off and should be seen that way.
Its complicated staking today not easy on the eye but I
am forced down that route. Longer message today as we
had that extra day to prepare but messages will shorten
each day and will not be as intense as this one turns out.

Remember the staking. Place the same stakes on every
selection and every mention. Don't worry about why it
doesn't make sense because it does. In fact I nearly had
my first selection of the year at Southwell today. What
stopped me putting Cloudy Start out as a strong bet was
partly the price but the fact it's impossible to have the
time to think clearly about it with the festival on so it
goes down as a mention. I couldnt commit the time to
it. I would make Cloudy Start my Joint Best bet today.
The other bet I really love I have not even tipped and
I have staked the race differently because there are not
enough prices available and not enough 9/4 and 5/2 but
the 5/2 each way Binocular without the favourite does
look a very good bet to me and he is also my joint best.




CHELTENHAM 1.30

GALILEO´S CHOICE 7/1

Each Way



CHELTENHAM 2.05

AL FEROF 3/1

Each Way





CHELTENHAM 2.40

Split Stake Bet + Saver

ALFIE SHERRIN 18/1 Win Bet
PENTIFFIC 25/1 Win Bet
Tullamore Dew - Saver Bet 12/1




CHELTENHAM 3.20


Split Stake Bet
One of the bets is in the Without the favourite market

HURRICANE FLY 5/6 Win Bet
BINOCULAR 2/1 + Win Bet "Without the favourite "



CHELTENHAM 5.15

Split Stakes
I am Staking this race based on £10 Stakes

MIC´S DELIGHT £2 Each Way 16/1
CARRICKBOY £3 Win 10/1
HARPSY CORD £1 Win 20/1
WHITE STAR LINE £2 Win 16/1



SOUTHWELL 5.40

CLOUDY START 6/4 +

Win Bet




G E N E R I C S T A T I S T I C S

Lets keep a record of how these are doing this week. It's
impossible to know how many will run this week and how
many we can get beaten. A Few days ago I predicted that
we could have as many as 30 horses and if that happens
I will be dissapointed if more than one of these win. The
horses failing these statistics should be seen as negatives.

Cheltenham 2.40 - Quantitativeeasing
Cheltenham 2.40 - Noland
Cheltenham 2.40 - The Package
Cheltenham 2.40 - Bottman
Cheltenham 2.40 - Runshan

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S



Starting with one horse at Southwell I like before the
main previews at Cheltenham take over the message.


S o u t h w e l l 5.40

7/4 Cloudy Start, 6/1 Magnitude, 8/1 Bee Sting
8/1 Colliers Castle, 8/1 Revolving World
8/1 Visions Of Johanna, 10/1 Dunaskin
10/1 Final Tune, 20/1 Putin.

Selection - CLOUDY START


I dont think there is much in this race. You can point to
a few with problems. I certainly wouldnt be excited about
Revolving World having raced just once since September.
Colliers Castle has the same problem and she is a mare as
well and both these could have fitness vulnerabilities. I am very keen on CLOUDY START. I ran his profile and it's
produced 6 winners. I love the recent run. I love backclass
and he has it in spades. Under a year ago he was rated 90
and running in 3 Grades higher. He has tumbled down thee
weights and slips into a 0-55 off topweight. I'd argue that
he should have won last time. He missed the break badly.
He was forced 6 horses wide round the last two bends so
lost lots of ground and was finishing best of all and that's in a much harder race than this. I fancy him to win this.

Selection - CLOUDY START





C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 1.30


William Hill Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m110y

5/1 Darlan, 6/1 Steps To Freedom, 8/1 Cinders And Ashes
8/1 Galileo´s Choice, 8/1 Montbazon, 10/1 Midnight Game
12/1 Tetlami, 12/1 Trifolium, 14/1 Colour Squadron
16/1 Prospect Wells, 20/1 Vulcanite, 33/1 Agent Archie
33/1 Allure Of Illusion, 33/1 Dylan Ross, 40/1 Simenon
50/1 Distant Memories, 50/1 Hazy Tom, 100/1 Jimbill
200/1 Catch Tammy.

This years Supreme Novice is more open than usual. The
trends in this race are reasonably decent and they argue a
case against most of these. I'd ignore one or two trends as I explain later. CINDERS AND ASHES is weak on several
angles and fails too many for me. PROSPECT WELLS is
wrong. DYLAN ROSS is not the correct type for the race.
VULCANITE feels one run win short of being safe enough.
TRIFOLIUM looks overexposed to me. It took him three
runs to win a Bumper and 3 more to win a Maiden Hurdle.
If DARLAN wins it wouldn't be a shock but the statistics
do suggest we ignore him. His last time out Fall puts him
in a bad place statistically and no past winners have come
from handicaps to win this race. Barry Gerraty has ridden
him and TETLAMI and is on record recently saying that
in his view TETLAMI is not in the same class as Darlan.
It may not work out that way but he wil know more than
I do about both horses and it puts me off TETLAMI. I'd
avoid MIDNIGHT GAME . He has no strong statistical
flaws. W Mullins said recently he had "worked badly" but
that usually means he has worked brilliantly. He does not
look safe with some jockeys rejecting him. Shortlisting 4


* STEPS TO FREEDOM - His problem is the 123 day break
* There was a winner absent 115 days but its not helpful
* Coming from a Grade 2 Novice isnt the norm either
* My angles suggest there are better options

* COLOUR SQUADRON - Could run well at a big price
* Not a great idea to bet last time out fallers though
* Ignore the stat that says ignore Class 4 form last time
* That Newbury Novice was better and Class 4 in name only

* MONTBAZON won that Newbury race
* Ignoring the class of that race leaves him statistically fine
* MONTBAZON has to be a positive
* He has to prove he is not best on a flat track
* I'd give him the benefit of the doubt

* GALILEO´S CHOICE - I have always liked his chance
* No statistical problems and he will love the ground
* His Form has not impressed everyone
* We know he is a class horse on the flat though
* Ignore the meaningless Dermot Weld record here
* GALILEO´S CHOICE interests me most of all


Selection

GALILEO´S CHOICE 8/1

Part win
Part Place

* Have Two thirds of your stake to win
* Have One third of your stake to place
* Skybet are 13/2 but are 1/4 the odds 1-2-3-4-5





C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 2.05

Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase 2m

10/11 Sprinter Sacre, 5/2 Al Ferof, 6/1 Cue Card
8/1 Menorah, 14/1 Blackstairmountain, 66/1 Foildubh

The Arkle Chase is down to just 6 runners this year. It wont please Paddy Power who are offering £200 money back if a top class SPRINTER SACRE gets beaten. That has to be the first port of call if you want to oppose him. Never been one of those good trends races and now we have only six runners it's a race to watch and not waste time on. Statistically I can argue FOILDUBH and BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN lack the class to win. Any of the others could. I suppose the obvious horse to rule out next is MENORAH as he fell last time out. Statistically CUE CARD's marginally safer than AL FEROF but I don't see this as a statistical race. Much will depend on SPRINTER SACRE and whether he can confirm the visual impression that he was a machine last time. He probably is and he probably will win as well but it shouldnt be forgotten that AL FEROF beat him fair and square at the meeting last year over hurdles and has the same chasing experience and arguably has achieved more. Maybe SPRINTER SACRE is not as effective here and maybe he wont recover from his last race. It's all iffs and butts really. The small field ensure the statistics matter even less than normal and it's bound to be tactical. It leaves me cold to bet odds on in the Arkle so whilst my heart suggests SPRINTER SACRE will win its the head that leads me to another conclusion given the prices. Thats AL FEROF 3/1 Each Way despite only 2 places here.

Selection - AL FEROF 3/1 Each Way






C h e l t e n h a m 2.40


JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

5/1 The Package, 11/2 Hold On Julio, Quantitativeeasing
9/1 Our Mick, 10/1 Tullamore Dew, 12/1 Baile Anrai
12/1 Zarrafakt, 14/1 Magnanimity, 14/1 Mossley
16/1 Fruity O´rooney, 16/1 Noland, 20/1 Alfie Sherrin
25/1 Pentiffic, 33/1 Billie Magern, 33/1 Bottman
33/1 Mount Oscar, 33/1 Riguez Dancer, 40/1 Mon Mome
40/1 Runshan.


This is a 3m Handicap Chase. It is one of my favourite races of the week. What interests me this year is we have 2 horses at the top of the betting trying something that no horse like them has done at the festival. I am opposing the 3 favourites.

* QUANTITATIVEEASING - Fails 3 Generic Statistics
* If he wins the Black Armbands will be out
* He's 7 and I looked at 7yo's in all Festival handicap chases
* None of these have won with 11st or more
* QUANTITATIVEEASING has 11st 12lbs
* None aged 7 have won with more than 7 weeks absence
* QUANTITATIVEEASING has been absent 94 days
* None aged 7 have won with either 1 or 2 runs this year
* QUANTITATIVEEASING fails that as welll
* QUANTITATIVEEASING fails other angles as well
* He looks the wrong type to me
* THE PACKAGE - Fails one of my Generic Statistics
* THE PACKAGE is a seasonal debutant
* I looked at all Handicaps at the festival hurdles and chases
* The only debutants with 13 or more runs had Grade 1-2 form
* THE PACKAGE has 20 runs and does not have that
* THE PACKAGE has a very hard task absent 439 days
* HOLD ON JULIO only has 3 Chase starts
* I don't like that much as the 2009 winner had 3 Chase runs
* The 2009 winner had much less weight and more class
* He also had the ride of the season to win
* HOLD ON JULIO has never been out of Class 2 yet
* Every past winner had races in better class than that
* I think that damages his chance as he is racing up the weights
* That makes him statistically unimpressive
* There are also reports he has had some little problems
* He has missed two prep races now and doesnt look safe
* HOLD ON JULIO is opposed

It may be asking a lot to get these three beaten but my angles tell me I must try. Looking at other negatives MON MOME MOUNT OSCAR and RUNSHAN are surely too old aged 12
and more. BOTTMAN fails a generic stat as no horse won a
Cheltenham Handicap Chase from a Novice Handicap before
and he is unlikely to be the first. RIGUEZ DANCER does not
look right and isn't like any winners. NOLAND looks wrong
and fails a Generic Statistic. I dont want to bet him exposed and aged 11yo with an absence as no 11 year olds has won a Handicap Chase at the festival before.

* BILLIE MAGERN is not typical of an 8yo winner of this
* I dont like him exposed and up in distance
* Its well doccumented he is a small field horse
* His brother (Ollie Magern) and Sister (Petite Margot) are too
* They are all small and have awful records in big fields
* He has won at Cheltenham before but in a small field Novice
* He's been hammered all times he ran here with 10+ runners
* BILLIE MAGERN is too unsafe
* MAGNANIMITY - Can be fancied on last years form
* His 4th in the RSA at this meeting gives him a chance
* He does come from a Grade 1-2 Chase though
* Horses coming from Grade 1 or Grade 2 Chases are 0-28
* They score badly in all Cheltenham handicaps
* I dont like the first time Visor either
* The ground could also be quicker than he likes
* MAGNANIMITY doesnt have a safe profile
* MOSSLEY is a 6 year old and that worries me
* Only 2 horses aged 6 have won since 1956
* He also comes from 2m 4f not a good sign
* The only winners from 22f or less were aged 9 +
* MOSSLEY only has 3 Chase starts
* I think his profile is weak
* I looked at every handicap chase run at the festival
* There were only a few winners aged 6
* They all had at least 4 runs that season
* MOSSLEY has 2 completed starts and a Pulled up
* He doesnt jump well and it may be asking too much
* OUR MICK is a 6 year old
* Only 2 horses aged 6 have won since 1956
* He also comes from 2m 4f and its a problem
* The only winners from 22f or less were aged 9 +
* A weight above 11st wont help and he doesnt look right
* He comes from a Grade 1 Chase - Not the norm
* Given his age and step up in trip he isnt for me
* FRUITY O´ROONEY is an exposed 9 year old
* No Exposed horses aged 7-8-9 have won this
* All exposed winners had far more backclass than him
* Not keen that he has Headgear as well
* I dont like the fact most of his wins are on sharp tracks
* I just feel he may find this a bit too warm

* ZARRAFAKT does not offer me enough
* He has a high enough weight with 11st 2lbs
* What bothers me most is his lack of backclass
* Every past winner has ran in at least Listed Class before
* ZARRAFAKT has never been out of Class 3 before
* He did win last time and is unexposed
* He has been hit hard for that win though
* With no track form there are doubts about him
* BAILE ANRAI comes from a Graded Novice Chase
* No horse has won with that profile
* Falling in that race last time doesnt help either
* He has fallen twice in only 4 chases starts
* With no Cheltenham form there are enough doubts here
* Especially with no runs in a big field chase

S h o r t l i s t



* PENTIFFIC is out of the handicap but I ignore that
* It seems irrelevant as most of his forms Australian
* Statistically He lacks the backclass of past winners.
* Ignore that as he has won big races abroad
* Dont worry that he fell last time out
* There are precedents with last time fallers
* He ran very well just 10 days ago when falling
* In the Grimthorpe Chase he had them all in trouble
* That was a high class race and a drop in trip will suit
* I remember the Kim Muir winner in 1998 (In Truth)
* He won from the Grimthorpe where he pulled up
* I noticed him in Febuary and Tipped him at Ayr
* He Flopped that day but hated the soft ground
* These were my comments that day

"I like PENTIFFIC. He was a very smart horse in Australia
winning big races. He then got suffered a Tendon injury in
Japan. He came to England to recover and he had stem cell
treatment. He spent several months on the sidelines when
with Venetia Williams and has now resumed his career. "
* PENTIFFIC has to be considered here off bottomweight


* TULLAMORE DEW is an exposed 10 year old
* He fails a couple of smaller trends but only just
* Nothing worries me much about his profile
* I love the fact he has placed at the last 2 Festivals
* TULLAMORE DEW looks a very solid runner to me


* ALFIE SHERRIN is very interesting
* Go back to the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
* He was a huge gamble starting 11/4 for the Pertemps
* He was Paul Nicholls trained then moved to Jonjo
* Had his quirks - been hard to train - but has some positives
* ALFIE SHERRIN is rated 147 over hurdles
* Today over fences he is rated 129
* The first thing we know is he is very well treated
* The next thing we know are his connections
* Jp McManus and Jonjo O'Neill
* We know we can put a line through several runs
* There is every chance he has been saved for this race
* I opposed him in the Midlands Grand National
* He was too inexperienced and after than he was unreadable
* Switched between Hurdles and Chases and different distances
* I think he is being conditioned to win a good race
* His jumping may not be as safe as I'd like
* Not sure how robust or reliable he is
* I watched both his last two races though
* Both left me certain he was given quiet rides
* JPMcManus paid £110k for this horse. He wasnt cheap.
* He should be much happier on this ground
* Not keen he comes from hurdles or out or the handicap
* I do think the good outweighs the bad at 20/1 +
* Tony McCoy can't do 10st which is why he doesnt ride
* I see him very much as the Stables Number 1 option
* He could easily fall or go missing without trace
* Equally he is thrown in and this could be his day
* ALFIE SHERRIN has to be in the staking plan


Selection

Split Stake Bet

ALFIE SHERRIN 18/1 Win Bet

PENTIFFIC 25/1 Win Bet

TULLAMORE DEW - Saver Bet 12/1





C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 3.20

Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2m 1/2f

4/5 Hurricane Fly, 9/2 Binocular, 11/2 Zarkandar
10/1 Rock On Ruby, 12/1 Oscars Well, 25/1 Overturn
25/1 Zaidpour, 40/1 Brampour, 50/1 Celestial Halo
200/1 Kalann.

The Champion Hurdle is so mouth watering this year. There
is the 2010 winner BINOCULAR trying to regain his crown
from the 2011 winner HURRICANE FLY. The majority of
people are strongly behind the currrent champion. If there's a flaw in HURRICANE FLY it could be that when he won it last year he was younger and had 3 prep runs but this year is older and has only two runs this season. We know 10 of the last 11 winners raced 3-4-5 times that season. You can look back at last years race and you can argue the horses he beat like Peddlers Cross, Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars were horses that needed further and Binocular of course didnt run so HURRICANE FLY was the only true 2 miler there. That is clutching at straws. He is top class no doubt and a deserved favourite and most likely winner but he's also slightly unsafe statistically with two runs and I think BINOCULAR has the slightly safer statistical profile of the 2 with 4 runs this year.
BINOCULAR was brilliant in 2010 and looked like he might
win three Champion Hurdles. Many have criticised him and
more since then and he hasn't always delievered but nobodys
said March at Cheltenham on Good ground wont suit him so
as a spring horse I would give him a serious chance and quite interesting for some time now Ladbrokes have been ducking him and have been deliberately shorter than all other firms.

* Number of runs that season recent winners had
* 3 3 3 4 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 7

I would oppose ZARKANDAR the 5 year old. I would have
opposed him anyway as a 5yo but with one run this year it
looks an incredibly hard task. When the only winning 5yo
in 22 years won (Katchit) he had 4 runs that year and that
was a weak year. I don't fancy ZARKANDAR at all. I have
to oppose KALANN as the other 5yo. BRAMPOUR looks
short of class and CELESTIAL HALO lacks the 2m form
to win. OVERTURN was hammered in last years race and
has a longer break than any past winner had in recent years.

* ROCK ON RUBY does have some question marks
* 13 of the last 14 winners raced 3 + times that season
* ROCK ON RUBY only has 2 runs this season
* That worries me thrown in with his absence
* He last ran 78 days ago on Boxing day
* The last 17 winners all ran in January or Febuary
* He is only absent 18 days longer than all recent winners
* Its not much but it is alongside the 2 runs this season
* He only has 6 hurdle starts when 9 or more is better
* It's not impossible that helps him to be honest
* Overall though he doesnt have an ideal profile

OSCARS WELL has never won at 2 miles before and has now
been beaten in all of his last 5 runs and that doesnt sound like the form of a Champion Hurdler. All the evidence points to him wanting further and 2 miles on this ground may not suit.

I thought ZAIDPOUR was a great price at 16/1 in the market
without the favourite. Unbeaten this year and statistically spot on. Of course the Elephant in the Room is the ground and the distance. Ruby Walsh has said he is ground dependant and that he's a mudlark and he does look more a horse that needs much further. That does put me off a bit and his best form has been on right handed tracks as well. I dont think he will win but the 16/1 without the favourite does look too big when you look at the small field and the weak 5 year olds and when 3 more are
massive priced outsiders. ZAIDPOUR interests me in that bet.

It is a kaleidoscope of options and these are some conclusions.

* HURRICANE FLY - Will probably win this race
* BINOCULAR - I'd argue he is the safest bet statistically
* BINOCULAR - Each way looks a possible bet
* BINOCULAR - Could be a great bet to beat Zarkandar
* Evens would be a maximum bet in that match bet
* You wont get that but 4/5 would still be a very good bet
* ZAIDPOUR - 16/1 without the favourite interests me e/w

In the end I decided to have two bets in this race
Split Your Stakes on these two bets. One is a win
bet in the normal market the other a win bet but
crucially in the "without the favourite" market.


HURRICANE FLY 5/6 Win Bet

BINOCULAR 2/1 Without the favourite Win Bet


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C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 4.00

Glenfarclas Handicap Chase
(Cross Country Chase) (CLASS 2)
(5yo+) 3m7f

3/1 Scotsirish, 9/2 Uncle Junior, 5/1 Sizing Australia
7/1 Garde Champetre, 10/1 Maljimar, 12/1 Balthazar King
16/1 A New Story, 16/1 Dancing Tornado, 20/1 Double Dizzy
20/1 Fortification, 25/1 Gone To Lunch, 25/1 Midnight Haze
25/1 Tally Em Up, 25/1 Wedger Pardy, 50/1 Dream Alliance
50/1 Jacks Island.

The Cross Country Chase has 7 past renewals and is a
handicap. Not much I want to say here. I would ignore
the 8 year olds like BALTHAZAR KING who is not a
certain stayer. I'd have to avoid an out of form 14yo
like A NEW STORY. DOUBLE DIZZY will struggle
to keep tabs on the Irish runners. FORTIFICATION's
not for me and may not stay. WEDGER PARDY has
too much to prove. MALJIMAR ran well in last years
race finishing 4th but he was off 73 days last year and
this year faces 175 days off and thats almost twice as
long as every past winner had. There have been 16 of
these Cheltenham Cross Country Handicaps and only
one horse won when absent more than 100 days and
that winner was a younger horse and it felt a fluke at
the time and because of that MALJIMAR is not my
first choice. It is probably best to assume the winner
will be at the front end of the market. This race may
revole around SCOTSIRISH and whether he can stay
this far. The evidence is inconclusive and we do not
know. Personally I would not trust him to stay. Not
when in the past 6 months he has two good 2m runs
and showed plenty of speed there. The 2008 - 2009
winner GARDE CHAMPETRE can't be ruled out but
he is trying to regain his crown lost a long time ago
and there are horses that appeal more. Last year we
had SIZING AUSTRALIA win and he could again as
well. I just wonder if he is a touch underraced so far
this season. He has every right to be considered the
sensible each way bet. So does UNCLE JUNIOR too
with my only slight issue with him the 95 day break.

Selection

UNCLE JUNIOR 9/2

Each Way


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C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 4.40

David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Race 2m

1/2 Quevega, 12/1 Kentford Grey Lady, 12/1 Our Girl Salley
12/1 Swincombe Flame, 16/1 Alasi, 20/1 Shop Dj
20/1 Violin Davis, 25/1 Dare To Doubt, 25/1 Ixora
25/1 Kells Belle, 25/1 Terre Du Vent, 33/1 What A Charm
40/1 Cloudy Spirit, 50/1 Golden Sunbird, 50/1 Tempest River
66/1 Dorabelle, 66/1 The Strawberry One, 200/1 Candelita
500/1 Himayna.

The Mares hurdle has the outstanding QUEVEGA who
has won the race in 2009 2010 and 2011 attempting a
4th win in the race. She should win and has a huge edge
on the ratings but she is odds on and as an 8yo seasonal
debutant it leaves me cold. Statistically she is wrong but
how could she be right anyway when we have only the
4 past renewals and she has won 3 of these. We have a
very smart mare here and its best to ignore any angles
that relate to her and I expect her to win. Not bothered
though about betting her myself at such short odds. It's
maybe best to Ignore QUEVAGA and treat her more as
a non runner and try and play "Without the favourite".

The problem doing that is most of these horses are so
obscure and the angles so week you can't help but have
a wild guess. I Ignored QUEVEGA and looked instead
at the horses that came 2nd and 3rd to her during the
last 3 years as thats what I am trying to obtain today.

* There are 6 horses finishing 2nd and 3rd in last 3 years
* The 3 runner ups all Won last time out
* The 3 third placed horses were 1st 1st 2nd last time out
* I would want a horse that was 1st or 2nd last time

* There are 6 horses finishing 2nd and 3rd in last 3 years
* These had 8-13-9-10-16-6 National Hunt starts
* They had 4-13-6-3-16-5 previous Hurdle starts
* I would want a horse with plenty of experience

* There are 6 horses finishing 2nd and 3rd in last 3 years
* All 6 horses came from 2m 4f or longer last time
* I'd be wary about the horses coming from 2m trips

* There are 6 horses finishing 2nd and 3rd in last 3 years
* These were aged 6 6 6 6 5 8

Therefore looking for a horse "Without" the favourite
we should look for a horse that was 1st or 2nd last time
out that had plenty of experience and that came from a
2m 4f race or further. Ideally aged 6 and the majority of
them had previous form in a Listed or Graded race as well.

I am ignoring ALASI as she is 8 and comes up in distance.
TERRE DU VENT is probably too inexperienced with 1
previous hurdle race. SWINCOMBE FLAME comes via
a handicap. All 18 horses that tried that lost in this race.
She had a lightweight in that race as well and failing first or second place I think she is best left alone.


* KENTFORD GREY LADY - Respectable profile
* Not convinced this track will suit her
* VIOLIN DAVIS - Acceptable option
* Again a slight doubt about the track being ideal
* OUR GIRL SALLEY - Not too far off an option
* SHOP DJ - Looks the bet without the favourite

Selection

In the Betting Without The Favourite Market

SHOP DJ' 6/1 Win Bet


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C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 5.15

Pulteney Land Investments
Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
(5yo+ 0-140) 2m4f110y

5/1 Triolo D´alene, 6/1 Hunt Ball, 7/1 Bless The Wings
11/1 Going Wrong, 12/1 Ackertac, 12/1 Carrickboy
12/1 That´ll Do, 12/1 White Star Line, 14/1 Mic´s Delight
16/1 Charminster, Quincy Des Pictons, 20/1 Cucumber Run
20/1 Educated Evans, 20/1 Harpsy Cord, 20/1 Owen Glendower
25/1 Battle Group, 25/1 Vino Griego, 33/1 Falcon Island
33/1 Saint Are, 40/1 The Panama Kid.


This is clearly one of the hardest races to look at with just 7 past renewals. There will be some Red Herrings here with one or two stats as it is still a developping race. I have not been a slave to my angles here. I think the Weight angles are unsafe because of the shape of the race. Not convinced about my Age stats either. Whilst no 6 year old has won it before they have had the last 5 and 6 of the 7 second place positions so there isnt a big problem there. The Criteria I'd see as most significant here is Class. Ideally I would want a horse thats raced in a Listed Class race or better before and I would also be very keen to avoid the handicappers as well.

* Go with horses with at least Listed Class form
* Go with horses that have never run in Handicaps

* HUNT BALL has never run in Listed Class
* He has 3 more chase runs than any winner
* The 7 winners had 4 3 3 4 6 3 5 Chase starts
* HUNT BALL has already had 9 Chases starts
* The closest match was Lacdoudal who came 2nd in 2005
* He had a big weight too but HUNT BALL has more
* He also had Graded form something HUNT BALL lacks
* He does not fit the trends and 12st is a problem


If you look at the winners and placed horses in recent years they are littered with horses that had 3-4-5-6 previous runs over fences and only three horses placed with more chases.

I would also prefer a horse that does not come here from a
Handicap. In fact I'd rather a horse had never run before in a Handicap. The following argument makes the case for it.

* The last 6 winners had never run in any handicap chase
* The last 5 runner ups had also never raced in a handicap

* TRIOLO D´ALENE is hard to read
* He is 5 and has just one run in England
* I'd rather not have a 5 year old but one has won
* He has ran in a Handicap before which I dont like
* He is one that could be a stat buster but he isnt for me
* Not as a 5yo and with plenty of weight as well.

BLESS THE WINGS has now run in 4 Handicaps and He
is one that has no Listed Class form before. He has been
punished by the handicapper for 2 Handicap wins and it
must damage his chance. CHARMINSTER has handicap
form and given that he is an age that has never won this
before and he also lacks Listed Class form and he failed
to finish 1st or 2nd last time he he hardly the right sort.

I doubtTHAT´LL DO offers enough given his profile.
He has Handicap form which isn't ideal but Im bothered
more by a 151 day absence which must hurt his chance.
OWEN GLENDOWER has handicap form. I dont have
much against him apart from that and a tough weight
and given that he isn't his stables Number one he might
be best avoided. ACKERTAC has 2 handicap starts now
which isn't the norm and he has gone up 5lbs for losing
his last one. I didn't see enough I liked about him.

GOING WRONG is a 9yo. Some horses aged 9-10 have
placed in this race before but haven't won. Not keen on
the fact he has Handicap form before. Not keen on his
68 day break either of the fact he comes up in distance.
You can also argue he lacks the backclass required and
yet he still has more weight than any previous winners.


* QUINCY DES PICTONS - Far too exposed
* VINO GRIEGO - Too exposed and not typical
* CUCUMBER RUN - Dont want a last time faller
* BATTLE GROUP - Ungenuine and doesnt jump well
* THE PANAMA KID is outclassed
* FALCON ISLAND is outclassed
* SAINT ARE isn't running well enough
* EDUCATED EVANS - Looks the wrong type


S h o r t l i s t


CARRICKBOY has just won a handicap 8 days ago. So
far no evidence that's a good profile much as I wouldnt
ever rule a horse out through a recent race. He has now
had 8 Chases though and thats not helpful and that has
included 4 Handicap Chase starts and my best guess has
to be that he is too old and exposed to go up in class. I
just see a recent win as a big plus against his negatives.

* MIC´S DELIGHT - Not too worried he is an 8yo
* He passes through all my main angles
* All 5 career wins he has had were on right handed tracks
* Thats a worry but he has ran well left handed before

* WHITE STAR LINE has a good overall profile
* I dont mind he is 8 but his 75 days absence isnt easy
* Not enough to put me off considering him though
* Sure to like the ground he is respected

* HARPSY CORD - I wouldnt rule him out
* He is 6 but really only 5 years and 9 months old
* Expensive horse he is said to want better ground
* Coming here after a confidence boost he is respected

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