No Bet Today

2 Options



Todays Options and Significant Races

Tomorrow the three day Cheltenham meeting starts and
I plan to pick a few races there and do something decent.
My priority for the messages at this time of year is better class National Hunt races taking precedence followed by the All Weather the bread and butter. It is the Low Grade National Hunt dross I must try to ignore. Much of todays National Hunt is too hard or dangerous. I've ignored both Ludlow and Taunton and Kempton too. Southwell could go either way as there are oppurtunities but it may well depend on how the draw affects one or two races. I have a rare preview in Ireland today and its quite gentle work and it deliberately trys to avoid all the dangerous races.


I have one eye on the first 4 races at Southwell to see if
my angles work but none of these make me want to be
financially involved. Fascinated by the very hot favourite
in the 2.20pm. This is a 3yo filly up significantly in class and weight taking on older males from the worst draw as well. Shes progressive and may well win but her price is
too short given her risks. Conventional wisdom suggests
I have this wrong and have underestimated her but I want
to try and bet against her and this is a bet I want to have.


Southwell 2.20

£5 Win RAMBO WILL 14/1
£4 Win TAFFE 14/1
£1 Saver DANCING FREDDY 14/1



Southwell 2.50

LAYLA'S BOY 9/2

Each Way


Half of me is left a bit cold by horses like LAYLAS BOY
who have a poor strike rate and who have limitations but
today he faces a lot of very weak profiles and he comes
out significantly better than anything else and because
of that I think he has the leading chance in a poor race.
I think he should go close but the only reason I havent
made him a bet is a lack of clarity about what headgear
or combination of headgear suits him best and because
he has a low strike race that could be important and why
he is not a full bet. I said on Monday Its Cheltenhams
three day fixture that I am most interested in looking at.



W e d n e s d a y 's R e v i e w

It didn't turn out as I had hoped yesterday and Southwell
beat me quite comfotably . Embarrasingly I only avoided
a whitewash by a late odds on winner. Overall it was just
a confusing message. Lots of timing and staking issues.
It wasn't very good and I think that one is best forgotten.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


S o u t h w e l l 12.20

9/2 Royal Bajan, 5/1 Haajes, 6/1 Monsieur Jamie
13/2 Drawnfromthepast, 13/2 Rylee Mooch, 8/1 Six Wives
10/1 Bubbly Ballerina, 14/1 Shoshoni Wind, 14/1 Taurus Twins 14/1 Where´s Reiley, 16/1 Foxy Music.

This is a 5f handicap and difficult as most of these have fit profiles. I felt ROYAL BAJAN was the most vulnerable with fitness. TAURUS TWINS didn't do enough last time. I have concerns over BUBBLY BALLERINA both on profile and on
the surface. SIX WIVES is an exposed mare with a months
absence and I dont want her profile given she has a career
high mark as well. SHOSHONI WIND doesnt come out too
well as an older filly well beaten last time. It was a difficult decision about hard to read WHERE´S REILEY but there are no winners like him and I have too many safer profiles in the race to give him the benefit of the doubt. I think the same with MONSIEUR JAMIE who I felt was short of runs this year and wanted a slightly better last run as well.

Shortlist

* DRAWNFROMTHEPAST - Profile fine but Stall 1 worries me
* Since 2011 there are 24 handicaps here at 5f with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 1 and 2 are 0-48 in these 24 races
* Since 2010 they are 1-83 with Stall 1 having a 0-40 record
* DRAWNFROMTHEPAST - I dont want him drawn one
* FOXY MUSIC - 8yo and no recent run but I can match him
* Have to shortlist him but he has little sand form
* HAAJES - Another 8yo and like one winner
* Just hope he doesnt struggle from a high draw
* RYLEE MOOCH - 1 similar winner but may need career best

Selection

Split Stake Bet

FOXY MUSIC 16/1 + Win Bet
HAAJES 16/1 + Win Bet




S o u t h w e l l 12.50

5/4 Equitania, 7/2 Projectisle, 5/1 Kicken Off
5/1 Squawk, 8/1 Windforpower.

* This is a 2yo claimer over 6f
* Not many similar races so a small sample size
* Having under 4 runs is unnaceptable
* SQUAWK is rejected as unraced
* PROJECTISLE was beaten too far just 5 days ago
* WINDFORPOWER - I dont think he did enough yesterday
* KICKEN OFF - Hard to read. Neutral profile
* EQUITANIA - Complicated profile but best horse at weights
* Just enough promise in her profile to expect her to go close


Selection

Split Stakes
EQUITANIA Win Bet
EQUITANIA - KICKEN OFF - Exacta Bet






S o u t h w e l l 1.20

6/4 Lilac Lace, 6/4 Nelina, 8/1 Mace The Ace
10/1 Niknad, 20/1 Una Bella Cosa, 25/1 Cielo Rojo
25/1 Darakti, 25/1 Duchess Of Dreams.

* This is a 2yo Auction maiden
* Not many of these races are run in November
* LILAC LACE comes from 5f to 7f which worries me
* No winners won similar races doing that
* MACE THE ACE looks a bit too exposed
* Shes never started less than 40-1 in any of six runs
* NELINA looks a reasonable choice here
* Each way at 5/2 with 8 runners is tempting
* NELINA is just given the vote though

Selection

NELINA




S o u t h w e l l 1.50

13/8 Keep It Dark, 9/4 Queen Cassiopeia, 11/2 Quan
8/1 Miss Bunter, 14/1 Sweet Grace, 20/1 Summer Sun
25/1 Dr Victoria, 25/1 Give Us A Belle, 33/1 Adam´s Ale
33/1 Balmoral Castle, 50/1 Kuraanda, 50/1 Mystical Witch.

* This is a 3yo maiden over 7f
* Interesting race because of KEEP IT DARK
* Best form and highest rating he looks the obvious one
* I feel his biggest danger here is stall one
* There were 43 races here at 7f with 10 + runners since 2011
* Horses drawn 1 had a 1-43 record
* Its certainly the worst of the draw
* This issue is has KEEP IT DARK enough ability to overcome it
* Given the price I'd rather look elsewhere
* MISS BUNTER - Really wanted another run from her
* I dont see enough promise from her debut
* SWEET GRACE - Fair place chance but she is quite exposed
* If Ratings are a guide she should find a couple too good
* QUEEN CASSIOPEIA - One of a few each way options
* Suspect she needed her last run but was it enough ?
* It's a race that demands a guess
* QUAN would be mine each way but minimum stakes here

Selection

QUAN 9/2 Each Way



S o u t h w e l l 2.20

2/1 Havin´ A Good Time, 7/1 Damika, 7/1 Sleepy Blue Ocean
7/1 Taffe, 8/1 Rambo Will, 10/1 Dancing Freddy, 12/1 O´gorman 14/1 Baby Strange, 16/1 Dorback, Oldjoesaid, 20/1 Cadeaux Pearl.

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-83 rated horses
* We have a dilemma here with HAVIN´ A GOOD TIME
* HAVIN´ A GOOD TIME is a 3yo filly that won last time
* Complicated profile. Not many 3yo fillies follow up a win
* With 6 runs her profile is unimpressive without being a negative
* I think her draw adds to her problems from Stall One
* Since 2011 there are 24 handicaps here at 5f with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 1 and 2 are 0-48 in these 24 races
* Since 2010 they are 1-83 with Stall 1 having a 0-40 record
* HAVIN´ A GOOD TIME doesnt feel safe to me
* She has raced in 4 handicaps so far in the following grades
* 0-65 0-65 0-70 0-65
* HAVIN´ A GOOD TIME now faces a 0-83 a much better race
* She has to do that 12lbs higher than her last race
* Yes shes progressive and none of the others are
* But shes also very short up in class and badly drawn
* DORBACK looks underraced this season
* OLDJOESAID is 8 and has 1 run in 68 days
* I'd want more recent races for a horse as old as that
* BABY STRANGE didnt do enough last time as an 8yo
* His Southwell form is unimpressive too
* His sires runners are 0-15 here - None if these were 1-2-3-4
* DAMIKA - running well considering he is a 9yo
* Found 1 winner like him but he had less weight
* He has never run here before and never won over 5f
* That has to be a concern and it puts me off him
* CADEAUX PEARL - Cant match him to a winner
* Not with his absence and a poor last run
* SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN - Wanted a more recent run
* O´GORMAN - Didnt quite make the shortlist
* Not a negative but recently downgraded yards I'm not sold

Shortlist

* TAFFE - I dont have a problem with his profile
* He is unproven here and over 5f though
* Statistically my angles tell me that doesnt matter
* TAFFE has to be considerd
* DANCING FREDDY - His profile is fine possibly the best
* I would rather have a higher draw though
* RAMBO WILL - No important problems and respected

Selection

£5 Win RAMBO WILL 14/1 +
£4 Win TAFFE 14/1 +
£1 Saver DANCING FREDDY 12/1 +





S o u t h w e l l 2.50

4/1 Lakeman, 9/2 Viola Da Gamba, 6/1 Layla´s Boy
7/1 Essexbridge, 10/1 General Tufto, 12/1 Goldmadchen
12/1 Kingaroo, 16/1 Investment World
16/1 Ptolomeos, 16/1 War, 25/1 Miss Kingwood
25/1 Monzino, 33/1 Leitrim King.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* The following horses are not certain to be fit
* MISS KINGWOOD -ESSEXBRIDGE
* INVESTMENT WORLD who was recent sold for buttons
* The following horses have weak profiles
* MONZINO -KINGAROO -GENERAL TUFTO
* WAR - LEITRIM KING -GOLDMADCHEN -PTOLOMEOS

Shortlist

* LAKEMAN - Shortlisted on sufference
* One run since late August really doesnt feel enough
* VIOLA DA GAMBA - Not entirely right
* Found a 3yo filly winning like her from all aged handicap
* None though from a 3yo handicap
* LAYLA´S BOY - Comfortably the best profile
* I found 3 similar winners and like him best of all

Selection

LAYLA'S BOY 5/1

Each Way



I r e l a n d

C l o n m e l 2.55

6/4 Tarla, 9/4 Knockfierna, 11/2 Our Girl Salley, 7/1 Great Oak 8/1 Our Victoria, 12/1 Glibin, 12/1 Ros Brin, 14/1 Avondhu Lady 20/1 Lead Kindly Light, 25/1 Special Token.

This is an interesting Graded Mares Chase as there is a real contrast between the main runners. TARLA is a serious horse and a good prospect getting all the allowances but she hasn't jumped a fence before. KNOCKFIERNA is the proven horse in the race but carries the penalties and has ran out twice in his last 5 races. Normally I'd side with experience but I dont want to do that here. KNOCKFIERNA is too quirky. I dont see any problems with her running out today at this course but she is far from a fluent jumper and she may just be meeting a smart horse in TARLA. She has won all 4 of her hurdle races since coming from France. Physically she is described as a natural
chaser and a brilliant jumper and we could well see her later in the season in a Grade 1 Chase at Cheltenham. Several of her siblings were decent chasers. TARLA gets 12lbs weight and I'd be surprised if she wasnt the better horse by the end of the season. Of course I have to deal with her inexperience but it was only two years ago that a 6yo chasing debutant won this race and that shows it can and has been done and recently. I think TARLA will have too much class for these.

Selection - TARLA 5/4

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