No Strong Bet Today

There are three national hunt cards today and all of these
low grade right handed and scrappy. I need to throw in an
easy message today. It has been a tiring week and today
I'm not bothered about message quality. I count 11 races
in the mail and plenty of short prices today. I am going to
take tomorrow off. Today all I want to do is find winners.
I think my best chances of doing that are with these two.

Musselburgh 12.20 - LORD WISHES 10/11

Hereford 12.40 - RENDL BEACH 4/5


My best bet today is RENDL BEACH but as I said this
is just a light easy low key sunday without any fireworks.




S a t u r d a y 's R e v i e w

It was a strange message yesterday with so many things
happening. In terms of my 4 options we had 1 winner and
depending on whether you took 3/1 or 4/1 we ended up at
level pegging or a bit in front. I'm delighted with that as the first 3 bets lots and it was a long wait to finally repair that damage. JACKIES SOLITAIRE fell and nothing we can do about that. It was always a risk but it put us behind which was frustrating as she was going very nicely when she fell. You couldnt have written a more painful ending to the 2.30 as WALKON was beaten into 2nd place by the 4 year old Unioniste. I gave you a statistic that showed no 4yo ever won a handicap chase at Cheltenham. Well one has now and although that stung a bit it shouldnt. What I produce is a checkable record of Pasthistory. My angles are just a truthful reflection of the past. It was obviously a mistake to interpret that as significant but that is not the statistics fault. I still maintain you are better to know these things.

This time it went wrong but look at WOZA MOYA'S race.
The favourite was Odds On and finished unplaced. I told
you that he was also trying to do something no horses
have done before in winning a 2yo seller over 9f or more
when so lightly raced. I may have lost the Cheltenham
4yo statistic but beautifully ironic that in the last race I also won opposing another horse who was attempting to
do something no other horse had. That made it sweeter
and I feel added to a feeling yesterday's a score draw.

The other bet STANDPOINT looked bad. Drifted rapidly
in the market. Missed the break. Given a bad ride and
never looked like the jockey was interesting in winning.
Long after the race the debate about that ride was on a
seething Betfair forum and many people felt it wasn't a
tryer. I dont know but it did stink but when you bet in a
sewer you can't distinguish between the smells and It
is not as if we will ever find out. At least WOZA MOYA
did us proud and saved the day. The other races done
finished P L W P L W P W so we held our own there.
Lots to reflect on but just so relieved we pulled it back.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S



M u s s e l b u r g h 12.20

6/4 Lord Wishes, 7/2 Maybe I Wont, 9/2 Valleyofmilan
10/1 Broctune Papa Gio, 10/1 Lexington Bay, 14/1 Desgrey
20/1 Phar Away Island, 20/1 Tresor De L´isle, 25/1 Maggie Blue 33/1 Have You Had Yours, Lady Gargoyle, 66/1 Pirate Chest.

* This is a maiden hurdle over 2m 4f
* LORD WISHES has a competent profile
* He's well thought of and was smart in Bumpers
* One hurdle run will help and he should go close
* MAYBE I WONT doesnt come out as well
* He is far more exposed with 10 hurdle starts
* He should have won by now to match him to winners
* Kept on the go through the summer racing isnt ideal
* There must be a stamina question mark as well
* Overall I saw weakness in his profile
* VALLEYOFMILAN has a chance but is a cheap horse
* LORD WISHES looks the one to be with

Selection

£10 Win LORD WISHES



C a r l i s l e 12.30

* I wouldnt oppose CORRIN WOOD
* Odds on but looks far more substantial than the rest



H e r e f o r d 12.40

11/8 Rendl Beach, 7/2 Timesishard, 7/1 Sammys Gone
8/1 Atriptomilan, 8/1 Tenby Jewel, 14/1 Next Sensation
16/1 Raduis Bleu, 25/1 Isthereadifference, 40/1 Midnight Belle 66/1 Charlie Ruffles, Let´s Be Famous100/1 Double Or Quitz.

This is a 2m 6f Novice Hurdle. Complicated because was
have a favourite in RENDL BEACH who tried to run off the
course last time costing him any chance. Obviously there
is a risk with himn as he is quirky. On the other hand his
form is far better than any of these. His opposition have
only average and modest profiles. If you take the risk and
forgive him that indiscretion than you have a very big price about a horse that should win. He also had a 10lbs claimer last time out and now has APMcCoy which has to help us. We dont know whether he will throw away his chance but it's a no brainer for me that RENDL BEACH is the bet here.

Selection

£10 Win RENDL BEACH



H e r e f o r d 1.10

7/2 Glitzy D´ocala, 9/2 Lower Hope Dandy, 5/1 In The Post
11/2 Midnight Prayer, 10/1 Hugo Drax 14/1 Larks Wing
14/1 Presence Felt, 20/1 Another Alfie 20/1 General Ross
20/1 Seven Iron Sid, 25/1 Emerging Artist
33/1 Arch Event, 33/1 Ugly Bug, 50/1 Comical Red.

* Thislooks a hideous maiden hurdle
* A host of difficult to read profiles
* I look at all maiden hurdles in December at all trips
* I looked at 7 year olds first time out this season
* GLITZY D´OCALA and MIDNIGHT PRAYER do this
* When they had Grade form before they were fine
* When they did not they had a 1-90 record
* That winner (Superior Quality) wasnt like those two
* He had far less of an absence
* IN THE POST is a 7yo and unraced
* Not a profile I want so looking elsewhere
* PRESENCE FELT - I wanted a better last run
* LOWER HOPE DANDY - probably the safest choice
* LOWER HOPE DANDY is chosen in a race I am guessing in



M u s s e l b u r g h 1.20

9/4 Imperial Vic, 7/2 Streams Of Whiskey, 5/1 Glenora Gale
5/1 Mount Hope, 7/1 Harry The Lemmon, 7/1 Ifyouthinkso
20/1 Yourlookinathim.

I didn't like any of these horses. Its a 3m Novice Hurdle. If we take 7 year olds winning last time like IMPERIAL VIC then I see a good record but none came from Maiden Hurdles as he does and I can't match him to winners. GLENORA GALE is a mare from a 2m Chase so plenty to prove there. I wasnt able to match STREAMS OF WHISKEY either after a poor last run. I would avoid these three but it leaves you few options and as none of these look safe it will be more luck than judgement if I can get these three beaten. No selection but opposing three.



C a r l i s l e 1.30

* MORNING ROYALTY has the best profile
* Could be one for an each way double
* I dont like Painted Tail enough as a mare
* MORNING ROYALTY is the safest choice here


H e r e f o r d 1.40

5/4 Oscar Hill, 2/1 Not Til Monday, 9/2 Tarkari
8/1 Unwanted Gift, 20/1 Lisselan Pleasure, 66/1 Bashama
66/1 Come On Annie, Generous John, 66/1 Rileys Legend
66/1 Tahiti Dancer, 66/1 Who Am I.

* This is a selling hurdle over 17f
* NOT TIL MONDAY - He is the best horse in the race
* OSCAR HILL - He has the best profile in the race
* Gives me a direct choice here on ability or profile
* OSCAR HILL gets the verdict
* I go with him as he is the fitter of the two
* NOT TIL MONDAY has ran once in 178 days
* OSCAR HILL has run 6 times since then
* I think the fitness issue swings it his way
* TARKARI could be the biggest danger
* I cant match him to a winner as he comes from a chase
* I'd see him as a positive though

Selection

OSCAR HILL



M u s s e l b u r g h 1.50

7/4 Civil Unrest, 7/4 William Money, 7/2 Father Shine
10/1 Wild Geese, 12/1 Mystified.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 4f
* MYSTIFIED doesnt make any appeal
* WILD GEESE is 5 from a Novice Chase
* All similar winners had far more runs that year
* CIVIL UNREST is 6 and comes up from 2f
* I'd give him a chance but I wanted a bit more
* The 6yo's doing that all ran far better than he did last time
* I would shortlist two here
* FATHER SHINE should be considered
* WILLIAM MONEY probably has the better profile
* WILLIAM MONEY is the selection



H e r e f o r d 2.10

Not getting involved in this 2m 3f Handicap Chase as it looks too hard. David Pipes E STREET BOY is clearly well supported but he has been a bit too open about that for comfort. All I can say is had I done the race I'd have opposed Rouge Et Blanc as he won a 2m race last time and no winners like him did that if having just one run this season. I'd avoid him but no strong view.



M u s s e l b u r g h 2.50

6/4 Bhaltair, 3/1 Alpha One, 3/1 Monarch´s Way
10/1 Dream Risk, 10/1 King Brex, 16/1 Morning Time.

* This is a 2m handicap chase
* MONARCH´S WAY - I dont like his profile as a 5yo
* None won with just 1 run this season
* None won from a Novice Chase without 4 runs that season
* None aged 5 had his weight either
* MORNING TIME didnt do enough last time
* ALPHA ONE won a 2m 6f race last time
* I couldnt match him to any winners
* BHALTAIR won a 2m 4f race last time
* He looks a bit safer and is my choice
* BHALTAIR my choice in a wide open race


H e r e f o r d 3.10

This is a 3m 1f handicap chase for 0-100 rated horses. I was hoping that ROYALE KNIGHT may have been a shorter price as I want to be with DOUBLETOILNTROUBLE each way. Its
harder to do that now as they are joint favourites. Being a 6yo winning a Novice Handicap Chase last time I would argue that DOUBLETOILNTROUBLE has a safer profile. He's my choiceto win this but I'd have been happier with an each way bet.

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