No Selection Today



1 Mention Today


Lingfield 3.50

EVEN BOLDER 7/2

Win Bet



T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

I've looked at a few Lingfield races and mixed that with some National Hunt work. I've nothing to offer really at Kempton tonight. When we are 3 weeks away from Cheltenham and the sand is still around this does get boring. I have some all weather fatigue at the moment and thats worse when smaller fields are corrupting angles. I'd rather be looking at the Eider Chase and Racing Post Chase coming on Saturday than trying to guess at Kempton tonight. I have left Ludlow and its a bland message.

Predictable and boring racing leads to message that are boring and predictable. It feels like that today. Not cutting edge at all and thats why I have cancelled the negatives and match bets today. I am having one bet though on EVEN BOLDER. He is an old adversary. Hard to win with and will need to avoid any badluck. He is a hard horse to win with and I have factored it in but he's also more than capable of winning a 0-65 handicap and he is running well at the moment and should win soon. I wouldnt put anyone off an each way bet. I have gone for the win bet only because there wasnt any 4/1. I think he can win
and tomorrow I will either be reporting a winner or unlucky
loser. What he will do is keep us ticking over until the cards get a little less boring over the weekend.



T u e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

Nothing much to report about yesterday with a short
limited message and small fields. Started off well but it
faded after that. Dissapointed to see the match bet go
down. I will have a good look at those when I get a bit
of time possibly next week. My sense is they are not
doing as well as they should be. I will return to that in
a few days time. In terms of yesterday all I can say is
my expectations were low and the message matched
those but I could sense that and why I we had no bets.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W




L i n g f i e l d 1.45

6/4 Drawnfromthepast, 5/2 Brenin Taran
11/4 Mottley Crewe, 9/1 Forty Proof, 10/1 Decider.

This is a 5f Claiming race. Small field but I took the view
that Forty Proof and Decider has too much to do at these
weights. I thought BRENIN TARAN was unsafe partly as
a 6 year old thats unexposed but also one that's raced just
once since last Sept 2009. I see fitter horses. I would have to consider only two horses. MOTTLEY CREWE looks a
danger and is second best to DRAWNFROMTHEPAST. I don't like the frame to the race or the prices involved but I thought DRAWNFROMTHEPAST was the best choice.


D o n c a s t e r 1.55

This is a 4yo hurdle race. I can't find a winner from any
maiden hurdle over 2m with just 1 previous race so that
puts me off BLACK POND. Horses doing this with two
runs like BLUE DESTINATION are better but all those
that managed to win ran within 4 lengths of the winner
last time and he didn't quite achieve that. ARDLUI does
look the sexiest horse. Good profile other than the fact
all winners like him with a long absence after a win were
geldings and none were colts as he is. Not sure how good
an angle that should be. I like EAGLE ROCK's profile as
well and given the choice just prefer it. My choice would
be EAGLE ROCK and I'd argue for an each way double.



L i n g f i e l d 2.15

9/4 Jordaura, 7/2 Daniel Thomas, 4/1 King´s Colour
9/2 Alhaban, 12/1 Ostentation, 12/1 Potentiale
14/1 Cheers Buddy, 20/1 Enriching, 100/1 Tiger Who.

This is a 10f selling race. I looked at similar races and tried to narrow this down. The worst record comes from the 4yo runners. Not many win at all and the only ones that do have much more to offer than CHEERS BUDDY or ENRICHING
and the inexperienced TIGER WHO. ENRICHING has been
a massive gamble but the price has gone. POTENTIALE is a
little underraced this year. DANIEL THOMAS's winning run
has come to an end and not sure I'd want a 10 year old up in distance trying to return to winning ways. OSTENTATION
is unorthodox for a selling race and misses the shortlist.

* ALHABAN - Shortlistable
* KING´S COLOUR - Positive despite his absence
* JORDAURA - 2 similar winners
* I favour a split stake bet here with 3 shortlisted
* ALHABAN - Place Bet around evens
* JORDUARA - Win bet around 3/1



D o n c a s t e r 2.25

2/1 Quentin Collonges, 5/2 Aikman
100/30 The Cockney Mackem, 9/2 Master Fiddle
10/1 Master Flight, 33/1 Moscow Mule, 40/1 Noble Legend
66/1 Midnight Charmer.

This is a 3m Beginners Chase. What angles there are here
are probably vulnerable to how these jump. There look to
be 4 runners to concentrate on. Three of these come from
either Handicaps or Novice Handicaps and whilst that has
been done many times it's always been with a horse with
a recent run and all todays handicappers lack that. Slightly stronger in profile is QUENTIN COLLONGES bringing a bit of backclass and Novice Chase form. No idea whether
he will be good enough after an absence or which of them
will be here fit and ready to win but the statistical choice is QUENTIN COLLONGES so I will go with him.




L i n g f i e l d 2.50

9/4 Palmyra, 100/30 Good Morning Star, 9/2 Bramshill Lass
11/2 Athletic, 15/2 Next Cry, 9/1 King Of Wing, King´s Wharf.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 10f
* I looked at 139 similar races at this time of year
* KING´S WHARF - The only horse like him won last time
* KING OF WING - Little unsafe and a bit too much weight
* NEXT CRY hasnt done enough lately
* GOOD MORNING STAR - Not quite right but no negative
* PALMYRA is a filly winning an 8f maiden last time
* I found a winner like her with 1 run but not two runs
* Not a negative but she wasnt a perfect fit to any winner
* BRAMSHILL LASS - 1 similar winner
* ATHLETIC - Fair profile and respected
* ATHLETIC - Token choice


D o n c a s t e r 3.00

4/5 Oscar Nominee, 4/1 Presenting Ace, 11/2 The Weatherman
10/1 Abbey Garth, 12/1 Victor Leudorum, 14/1 Special Catch
16/1 Shan Blue, 25/1 Wordy´s Boy, 40/1 Bob´s Legend
66/1 Foxinthecots, 66/1 Midnight Return.

It's tempting to go with OSCAR NOMINEE but its unclear
how good he is. Reported to show nothing at home he won
a nad maiden hurdle before finishing last of three in Graded class last time. Throw in faster ground and there are some doubts. I dont like SPECIAL CATCH from a bumper. I feel the same about ABBEY GARTH who I can't match to any
winners with one run from a Bumper. There has to be a big
doubt about whether PRESENTING ACE achieved enough
just 5 days ago at 66/1 even in a quality race. My angles in these races show he may not have done. I think this is best left to either THE WEATHERMAN each way of the short
priced favourite. I think OSCAR NOMINEE may just have
a bit more class and I would go with him to win the race.



L i n g f i e l d 3.20

8/13 Performing Pocket, 100/30 Look At Me Now
5/1 The Kicking Lord, 20/1 Flying Kitty, 20/1 Miakora

This is an all aged maiden over 6f. The standard is probably set with the 77 rated PERFORMING POCKET. Strange sort of profile. In fact so unorthodox I can't find any winner like him not down from a Mile or a Novice race. He has also just changed stables too and PERFORMING POCKET does have a slightly unsafe feel to him. So much depends on the level of opposition he faces. LOOK AT ME NOW does not come out like any winners as those winning from 5f maidens were less exposed. THE KICKING LORD has a chance and has a slightly safer profile but once raced and starting 33/1 on his debut the resistence to PERFORMING POCKET is hardly dynamic. I think PERFORMING POCKET should be strong enough to cope with both horses and should just about win.


D o n c a s t e r 3.30

This is a Veterans Handicap Chase over 3m with every
runner aged 10 or more. I wanted to oppose all horses
with just 1 run this season so AURORAS ENCORE and
FORZY ORIGNY and FAASEL are rejected. I think it
is safe to oppose MUMBLES HEAD as he has had just
two uncompleted starts as well. SILVER ADONIS has
too long an absence. I see WOGAN as too risky and I
wouldnt rely on him to bounce back to form after two
poor runs just because he ran well here last year. I feel
I can shortlist 3 horses. ATOUCHBETWEENACARA
looks very well handicapped but his chasing form was a
fair while ago now and it's not clear whether he should
be trusted to recapture that. MARK THE BOOK looks
a threat and a potential saver but he is going up in class
so just a saver with NIKOLA the main choice.


L i n g f i e l d 3.50

100/30 Diamond Vine, 7/2 Even Bolder, 6/1 Amosite
7/1 Catalinas Diamond, 7/1 Dvinsky, 7/1 Rio Royale
10/1 Meia Noite, 10/1 Riflessione.

This is a low grade 6f handicap. I would start with some of
the fillies as they look weak. CATALINAS DIAMOND has
been absent 95 days and the only 4 year olds overcoming a
break like that had under 9 runs and She has 18 and looks a
bit too unsafe. AMOSITE is wrong as an older filly absent a
month and more. MEIA NOITE is also wrong as a filly well
beaten over 7f last time. This should go to a male horse and there are five options. You have to give DVINSKY a chance but he won last time and no horses aged 9 or more followed up and he is 11 now. If you take exposed 6 year olds from a 6f handicap like RIO ROYALE you find the only winners of these races had a recent run and he has been absent longer so I see him as unsafe. RIFLESSIONE has enough to shortlist at a big price but he doesnt look like a horse about to win soon.


* DIAMOND VINE - Shortlistable but I'd like less weight
* EVEN BOLDER - Good profile and a serious option
* He is hard to win with but this is only a 0-65
* EVEN BOLDER is head and shoulders ahead of my choices

Selection - EVEN BOLDER 7/2




K E M P T O N


Very little I can say here so decided to scrap the card and use the time for some work on the big handicaps Saturday.

I knew I was weak in the 5.30pm when my negatives were
limited to only Lucky Art, Fair Passion and Billy Red. I'm
cold on the race anyway with two Milton Bradley fancied
in the race and a Richard Guest horse. Not safe enough.

Neither is the 6.00pm race with a Willie Musson favourite
and both horse and trainer hard to read. I would not have
gone with Edgewater and just felt John Louis fell one run
short of ideal so I'd have tried to find something else here each way like MENADATI around 4/1 but he is a guess.

The 6.30 is probably going to be won by MARAHAA and
I don't see a good enough reason to oppose him and I wont.

The 7pm is a race to guess in because of the unraced horse
but it is not a race without some interest. MUNIFICENCE
clearly sets the standard. I will be watching carefully to see if he stays 11f as not many Bahamian Bounty's do. Had the race been twelve furlongs I'd have been opposing him but it is only 11f and a small field and unraced horses so I resist a song and dance about the race. If you bet him bear in mind there is a definate stamina dount and consider laying those bets back in running before that kicks in if you back him.


I don't fancy the 7.30pm without any draw advantage and
the market lead by M Wigham and T Carroll horses second
guessing those is pointless. Nothing appeals after that so it looks a card to miss and that is exactly what I plan to do.

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