No Selections Today

2 Mentions Today


First Bet

Split Stakes half on each horse

Newbury 2.05

TIME TO THINK 7/1 Win Bet

WAY BACK WHEN 12/1 Win Bet


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Second Bet


Newbury 1.30 - JACKIES SOLITAIRE 9/4

Lingfield 4.00 - GEORGE GURU 7/4

* Win Bet on Both Horses

* Each Way Double on Both

* £10 Stake would be £3 singles £2 E/W Double



It's a Newbury and Lingfield dominated message. Might not
be the best idea but something had to give with 5 meetings.
The other National Hunt cards are more of a side show and
I only have one race outside Newbury and Lingfield. I have
done every race at Lingfield. Done what I can but we know
a lot will come down to luck in running. Newbury has fewer
previews but it includes one race where the statistics are as strong as I have seen in a long time so there are options.


Today's Options

I should have winners at Lingfield but note always easy to
know which races they come in. I have chosen my bets at
the top of the message. These were the options available.

Newbury 1.30 - JACKIES SOLITAIRE 5/2

Only the favourite to beat and surely she has enough to
deserve being the selection. I think 5/2 each way is the
burglary bet of the day. The question is how many feel
that bet is unpalatable and how many will be able to get
the price and I suspect not many. I think I have to put
her in a win - win - each way double bet and I have.


Newbury 2.05

TIME TO THINK 7/1 Win Bet

WAY BACK WHEN 12/1 Win Bet

I think this is a suspiciously stronger stats race than it
may appear. It feells silly having WAY BACK WHEN
as a saver but I have one angle about her that absolutely
forces me to bet her so I am going with a split stake bet
half on her and TIME TO THINK who also looks good.



Bangor 2.15 - WAR PARTY

Bottom line is I dont know enough about this claiming
hurdle or this horse. A process of elimination might be
far too simplistic but this just seems an obvious winner.
I'm sure its not that simple but I think worth a bet.

Newbury 2.40

A LITTLE SWIFTER 20/1 Win Bet
FLORAFERN 8/1 Win Bet

The strongest statistical race I have seen for ages and
its possibly almost too good. I will be fascinated to see
what happens here but I feel I should bet elsewhere.


Lingfield 4.00 - GEORGE GURU 7/4

I did not consider him for a selection but wanted to use
him as an each way double option. I Think he has got a
small fitness edge over most of these and should go well



F r i d a y s R e v i e w

I went with a big priced horse and saver yesterday and they
finished 5th and 6th with JOIN UP only beaten 1.75 lengths
and only a length off a place. Basically he wasnt quite good enough but he ran very well and at the price I think he was worth a bet. They all finished on the far rail unusually and I don't know if that hurt us as we raced down the middle but it is best to assume he wasn't quite good enough. I was pleased with how he ran and the saver was unlucky and should have placed. Whe you have a modest field with about 10 runners and you can find 14/1 and 16/1 chances with solid chances you wont go far wrong long term. Most wont win of course but more than enough will and I do like those big priced bets.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S



N e w b u r y 1.30

11/8 One Lucky Lady, 7/2 Jackies Solitaire
5/1 Malanos, 10/1 Songsmith, 12/1 Kambis
14/1 Mahayogin, 14/1 Xenophon, 16/1 Cuban Piece.

This is a 4yo Handicap Hurdle over 19f and not really a
race you can be confident about unless you are sure that
your horse will stay this far. Nicky Henderson will draw
in many with ONE LUCKY LADY and she will go well
but she is a filly and she one of the least experienced in
the race with 3 hurdle starts. The recent winners of this
race had 7-8-4-3-5-7-5-4-5 hurdle runs. Only one had 3
runs and that horse had an advantage as ran in the past
week in a Grade One race at Cheltenham. She may win
but I think there is a better option so I'm going to take
on ONE LUCKY LADY and oppose her. SONGSMITH
could be one that is unlikely to get the trip given all his
flat form came at 10f or shorter. MAHAYOGIN might
need more runs and looks inexperienced. Tight choice
but I just prefer JACKIES SOLITAIRE. Drawn in by 7
hurdle runs and by the fact she ran 10 days ago at the
Cheltenham Festival. She ran more the well enough in
that race to give her every chance of winning this race.

Selection - JACKIES SOLITAIRE



L i n g f i e l d 1.50

5/2 Benbecula, 11/4 Hefner, 4/1 Haymarket
9/2 Dark Stranger, 10/1 Devote Myself, 14/1 Arctic Galaxy
20/1 Art News, Beggar´s Banquet, 20/1 Ultimate Destiny
100/1 Estee Will, 100/1 Kingshill Lad.

* Not much I can do in this 10f all aged maiden
* The main runners are mainly Acceptable or Neutral profiles
* I see no decent positives or negatives
* Go back to 2011 and we have 58 races here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in Stall 1 had a 0-53 record in those races
* Dark Stranger has the worst draw in Stall one
* I'd look elsewhere for the winner but it will take a guess
* BEGGAR´S BANQUET - Not convinced about him
* He finished behind some weak horses on his debut
* BENBECULA and HEFNER are R Hannon trained
* BENBECULA has the slightly better profile
* I would shortlist BENBECULA
* HAYMARKET also came out quite well
* HAYMARKET could be a reasonable place bet
* BENBECULA just has enough to make the selection

Selection - BENBECULA




N e w b u r y 2.05

6/4 How´s Business, 13/8 Pepite Rose, 5/1 Gan On
10/1 Way Back When, 12/1 Time To Think
100/1 Catch The Rascal.

This is a Novice Chase Final for Mares. Its a dissapoiting
field this season. The main runners have all ran 3-4 times
over fences which is ideal. None come up in distance and
thats a shame as I had a good statistic about that. I think
I should ignore PEPITE ROSE as she is a 5 year old.

* Horses aged 5 and 0-5 in this race
* Not many ran but none finished 1-2-3
* I looked at all Novice Handicap Chases in March
* Thats all of them at 2m 5f or more for Mares and both sexes
* There were only half a dozen 5 year old winners
* None had more than 8 career starts
* None had 11st 5lbs or more and she has 11st 10lbs
* Not sure if taking both mares and non mares races is ideal
* None have placed in this race though so I oppose her
* PEPITE ROSE also has 11st 10lbs
* The highest weighted past winner had 11st 7lbs
* There are 4 legitimate alternatives

* HOW´S BUSINESS has to be considered
* He has more weight than every past winner though
* He is also short of runs this season too
* GAN ON also carries 11st 10lbs as well
* She has more weight than any past winners
* GAN ON wouldnt be my first pick first time out
* There are 3 topweights and none interest me
* I think this is best left to two horses

TIME TO THINK - WAY BACK WHEN

* One Angle that interests me is this
* This is a Mares Chase final
* On the same card there is a Mares Final over Hurdles
* Many past winners of this race were similar
* They ran the year before in the Mares Hurdle final
* The 2011 2010 2008 2007 2005 winners did that
* They all ran the year before on the same card over hurdles
* WAY BACK WHEN is the only horse that did that
* I will take a chance on that obscure angle
* WAY BACK WHEN has to be part of the staking plan


* TIME TO THINK has a serious chance
* Horses aged 7
* Coming from a Handicap Chase
* Running within a Month
* Carrying 10st 7lbs or less
* Horses with this profile in this race were W W
* TIME TO THINK looks the best option here
* Her stable also won this race in 2008

Dont worry that both horses are out of the handicap as
several past winners have been including 3 of the last 8
winners. I think we have to be on both of these.

Selection

TIME TO THINK 7/1 + Win Bet
WAY BACK WHEN 14/1 + Saver Bet




B a n g o r 2.15

9/4 Hibiki, 3/1 Sweet World, 3/1 War Party
5/1 Great Esteem, 8/1 Olivino.

This is a Claiming Hurdle over 17f. I find it interesting we have 3 categories here. The first is horses that have serious absences. SWEET WORLD, GREAT ESTEEM, OLIVINO
have all been absent several months or more and have that
to prove. The second category is those with bad recent runs
and HIBIKI has that against him. He ran just 8 days ago and
was beaten 50 lengths. Its anyones guess if he can bounce
back from that. The final category is those with good recent form like WAR PARTY and its a lot easier to side with him. That is a very simplistic argument but if you look at all the Claiming Hurdles in March over 16f-17f-18f you find there are very few winners that have long absences. I found quite a dissapointing 3-129 record with 5 and 6 year olds winning all 3 of those races. Todays horses with absences are older than that. I think the safest bet has to be WAR PARTY as he has a reasonably good recent run and looks safest here.

Selection - WAR PARTY



L i n g f i e l d 2.25

3/1 Gusto, 7/2 Bannock, 4/1 Gatepost, 7/1 Kenny Powers
8/1 Crown Dependency, 10/1 Pale Orchid, Boris Grigoriev
16/1 Equation Of Time, 20/1 Big Note, 25/1 Kickingthelilly
33/1 Arbitrageur.

This is a 3yo listed race over 7f. We only have a brief
history to this and there are no similar races elsewhere.
Not much to go on. The horses with 1 run this season
struggle so Equation Of Time and Arbitrageur are ones
to avoid. I am taking on BANNOCK as he has 11 runs
and thats 4 more than any past winner of this and that
will hopefully mean something improves past him. No
time for KICKINGTHELILLY as he comes from only
a Class 5 race and steps up 4 grades. KENNY POWERS
didn't achieve as much as I'd have liked last time. Most
past winners had reached Group Class before and those
that not done that all won last time out. Thats a worry
for BIG NOTE. BORIS GRIGORIEV is overraced for a
seasonal debutant. CROWN DEPENDENCY does have
a reasonable profile but he looks the stable 2nd string
and I dont have enough positives for him and he looks
unsafe. First time out horses won the last 5 renewals
of this race and thats where I would stay.

* GATEPOST - Has to be considered
* He will need a lot of luck if held up from stall 1
* PALE ORCHID - Like the 2005 winner so respected
* She has a lot of improvement to make in this class
* GUSTO - Shortlisted and looks to have most positives
* Like many you have to make assumptions
* Last run Doncaster 2011 he broke the 2yo track record
* Serious connections he looks the safest bet to me
* Selection - GUSTO



N e w b u r y 2.40

9/2 Kentford Grey Lady, 6/1 Tante Sissi
8/1 Heather Royal, 9/1 Cue To Cue 10/1 Florafern
10/1 Lady Karabaya, 12/1 Lady Kathleen
14/1 Josh´s Dreamway, Miss Milborne 16/1 Native Beauty
16/1 Queen´s Bay, 20/1 A Little Swifter, 20/1 Night Rose
40/1 Sapphire Rouge, Wishes And Stars, 50/1 Withy Mills.

* This is a 2m 5f Mares Novice Handicap Hurdle Final
* There are 17 renewals of this race
* These past races show some very smart angles
* All 17 past winners had under 11 career starts
* Past winners had the following Bumper-Hurdle-Chase runs
* 7 5 9 10 6 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 6 3
* This is definately a race for lighter raced horses
* The past winners had the following Hurdle starts
* 4 3 5 9 3 9 7 7 4 4 5 6 2 2

* Horses aged 6 dominate this race
* Horses aged 7 or more are 1-87 in 16 past renewals
* Thats a bad strike rate for horses that age
* If betting a 7yo it needs to be like the only 7yo winner
* There were a couple of 5yo winners but many tried
* 14 out of the 17 winners were aged 6
* The last 7 winners were also aged 6
* Horses aged 6 look strong in this race

* Horses that came up in distance struggled
* All 17 winners came from 19f or further last time
* This race has been a graveyard for horses up in distance

* Horses from Novice Hurdles dominate
* The last 7 winners came from Novice Hurdles
* 9 of the last 10 and 13 of the last 15 did as well

* Horses from Handicaps have struggled
* Or at least horses running well in handicaps have
* Horses that were 1st 2nd 3rd 4th in a handicap last time
* These horses had a 0-37 record in this race

* Every past winner ran within 75 days

* Perhaps the most interesting stat is about Class
* The winners tend to have a Career best today
* You do Not want horses already tested in better grade
* You want young upcoming lightly raced runners
* Look at Every past winners hurdles form
* Ignore Bumpers just look at their hurdles form
* None of these had raced in Listed or Graded races
* None had raced in Class 2 races over Hurdles either
* The Highest Class they ran in over hurdles before was this
* 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
* You want a horse that mirrors this

* Look at what class of race winners ran in last time
* I have said already the highly tested horses are awful
* Ignore the horses that are down in Class in this race
* They have shot their bolt and dont seem to win
* The Last Time Out Class you want is as follows
* 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 4
* Every recent winner came from Class 3 or Class 4

* KENTFORD GREY LADY - Looks wrong to me
* Far too highly tested and fails multiple stats
* HEATHER ROYAL has the longest absence
* She comes up in trip and is over tested in hurdles
* SAPPHIRE ROUGE - Too exposed
* WISHES AND STARS - A Maiden wont win this
* NIGHT ROSE - Out of her depth
* WITHY MILLS - Outclassed
* LADY KARABAYA - A little exposed and wrong age
* QUEEN´S BAY - Wrong tested in higher class
* NATIVE BEAUTY - Too inexperienced up in trip
* CUE TO CUE - Fails two strong statistics
* JOSH´S DREAMWAY - I dont want handicap form
* LADY KATHLEEN - Chances but only 5 and unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* MISS MILBORNE - Passes all the Big stats
* One concern is no winner dropped from a 3m race
* There is another worry thats just come up
* Her trainer has stated the following a few days ago

" We have been planing to run Miss Milborne in the
Mares final at Newbury all season, and so it is frustrating that we have had an interrupted preparation for it over the last couple of weeks. She has missed a few vital bits of work, and so may not be as tuned as we'd have liked."
* That takes her off the selection list

* TANTE SISSI - Not keen that she is a 5yo
* 2 did win and she is not unlike the 1999 winner
* TANTE SISSI has to be a positive despite her age


S e l e c t i o n


* A LITTLE SWIFTER - Has enough to shortlist
* I think she is a bit of value at 20/1 from a small yard

* FLORAFERN - Must be considered despite aged 7
* The only 7yo winner in 2003 was very similar
* Besides FLORAFERN didnt start racing until she was 6
* That is the crucial factor for me
* She is only a second season hurdler like many 6yo winners
* She could be thrown in off her rating


S e l e c t i o n

Split Stake BET

A LITTLE SWIFTER 20/1 Win Bet

FLORAFERN 8/1 Win Bet




L i n g f i e l d 2.55

7/2 Medicean Man, 7/2 Noble Storm, 4/1 Oasis Dancer
5/1 Borderlescott, 8/1 Spirit Quartz, 16/1 Blue Jack
20/1 Bajan Tryst, 20/1 Fratellino, 28/1 Even Stevens.

This is another Listed race this times over 5f and another
race with only a handful of renewals and no similar races
at other tracks. The winner of this race usually has a run
this year but that may not happen this year as there are
just 2 horses with recent runs. BORDERLESCOTT might
be best avoided as a 10 year old seasonal debutant. None
have won first time older than 6 and getting to that age
I think we are safer to avoid him. EVEN STEVENS is an
unlikely winner absent 60 days from a handicap. I think
BLUE JACK is an unlikely winner. OASIS DANCER has
a lot of credit for having two runs this year and must be
considered but he has never raced at 5f before and when
you consider he has won at a mile as a 3 year old there
must be a doubt about this 5f being too sharp. I thought
FRATELLINO was just too risky. He is without a doubt
the fittest horse in the race but there are better weighted
horses and he has it all to do off level weights and drawn
in stall one is not always an advantage here. I would not
want BAJAN TRYST from a Class 4 race as this is three
grades harder and every past winner came from Class 3
of higher before. I think the winner may be one of these.

MEDICEAN MAN - NOBLE STORM -SPIRIT QUARTZ

I think NOBLE STORM is the one. He is very consistent
and has laced in 17 of his 27 races and won first time out
last year and is a 5f specialist. I think he is the bet e/w

Selection - NOBLE STORM 7/2 Each Way




N e w b u r y 3.10

5/4 Claret Cloak, 9/4 Malt Master, 13/2 War Singer
17/2 Seventh Sky, 12/1 Bold Henry, 14/1 North Cape
25/1 Catchanova, 28/1 Madame Allsorts, 28/1 Twyford
33/1 Romeo Americo, 40/1 Western High
100/1 Victorian Number.

This looks an uncompetetive Novice Hurdle. I found one
winner like WAR SINGER but he is a maiden and faces 2
past winners with slightly better profiles. I have to make
CLARET CLOAK as positive as well. No objections at all
but I prefered MALT MASTER. I looked at 5 year olds in
similar races winning a maiden hurdle over 10 weeks ago.
Those lightly raced like him had a 2-2 record. Not happy
if all the main runners are positives and I wanted at least
one negative. I havent got that but MALT MASTER has
the best profile for me out of the three main options.



L i n g f i e l d 3.25

4/1 Premio Loco, 9/2 Cai Shen, 5/1 Junoob
15/2 Sooraah, 12/1 Circumvent, 12/1 Myplacelater
14/1 Black Spirit, 14/1 Loyalty, 14/1 Riggins
16/1 Our Joe Mac, 20/1 Emerald Wilderness
20/1 Vivacious Vivienne, 40/1 Lyssio.

The Winter Derby has never been a great trends race and
its no surprise with the luck in running you need and short
head photos going the wrong way always corrupt angles. I
dont have a strong view here. We are still waiting for any
winner of this aged 8 or more and none managed to win it
first time out when aged 7 or more so PREMIO LOCO and
RIGGINS have that against them. LOYALTY wont be up
to this from his draw. MYPLACELATER doesnt appeal as
a seasonal debutant mare. The last 12 winners all had raced
on sand before. BLACK SPIRIT hasnt yet and he might be
best avoided. CAI SHEN also lacks past All weather form
and I am taking him on as well from a wide draw. Nothing
major against CIRCUMVENT but he has a wide draw and
all 3 Paul Cole horses running recently were beaten Miles
and the stableform puts me off. I think two are strongest.

* SOORAAH - Clearly very smart
* She was beaten a fair way in Dubai just 14 days ago
* How she recovers from that run determines her chance
* JUNOOB has the best profile
* Horses aged 4 winning last time
* Coming from a 10f Conditions race in the past month
* Similar horses had a 4-7 record winning in 2000 02 03 05
* The question is does he have the class to win
* He was in Claimers before Christmas
* A New stable has improved him but he needed it
* JUNOOB is rated 95 and there are many rated much higher
* Almost all past winners were rated 100 and more
* JUNOOB - I like his chances on the upgrade
* He needs to improve but thats possible
* His 4-7 profile is easily the best in this race

Selection - JUNOOB



L i n g f i e l d 4.00

9/4 Kingscroft, 11/4 George Guru, 6/1 Axiom
7/1 Dubai Dynamo, 10/1 Hung Parliament,Titan Triumph
14/1 Reve De Nuit, 16/1 Final Drive.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a mile
* Not many similar races so hard to match horses
* HUNG PARLIAMENT - 4yo seasonal debutants struggle
* None had under 13 career starts as he does
* AXIOM - No seasonal debutants won aged 7 or older
* TITAN TRIUMPH won a 7f handicap last time
* No horse as old as him won again at a mile
* Coming up in class he has a lot to prove
* DUBAI DYNAMO doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* Not as a 7yo with just 1 run since last October
* REVE DE NUIT - Just falls short and looks badly handicapped
* FINAL DRIVE -Doesnt look well treated at the moment
* I think he may need another run this year
* KINGSCROFT is an exposed 4 year old
* Similar types from 8f handicaps were 0-4
* Career high mark and unsafe profile but respected
* GEORGE GURU - Unorthodox as lightly raced 5yo
* Acceptable profile and well raced this season
* He should have a fitness edge over most of these

Selection - GEORGE GURU



L i n g f i e l d 4.35

Evs Forgotten Hero, 6/4 Hazaz, 6/1 Valley Of Destiny
20/1 Bevis Marks, 33/1 Norse Song, 33/1 Salford Prince
100/1 Littlemissperfect.

This is a Maiden race over a Mile. There is a limit to what
we can do here with VALLEY OF DESTINY unraced and a
few other unsortable horses. Personally I think its asking
too much of VALLEY OF DESTINY to win first time out
against 2 decent opponents. HAZAZ is rated 100 which is
more than high enough to expect him to win a maiden like
this. His profile is unorthodox. He has 6 runs already drops in distance and comes from a Conditions race and I can not find a winner like him. FORGOTTEN HERO has to go well and he is far more orthadox despite not having reached the same standard that HAZAZ has done. If we look purely at profiles the most likely winner is FORGOTTEN HERO.

Selection - FORGOTTEN HERO


L i n g f i e l d 5.10

2/1 Layline, 3/1 English Summer, 9/2 Right Stuff
5/1 O Ma Lad, 7/1 Viking Storm, 16/1 Smokey Oakey.

This is a 12f handicap. Not a distance I like or a race that suits me at all. Just making some observations. I looked at how horses aged 9 or more got on like RIGHT STUFF and I found that none dropped down from 2 mile races like him and none had been absent more than a month and he has a nasty 101 day break. He does not offer me a safe enough profile. I dont like ENGLISH SUMMER down from a 2m
race with just one run since last September. Another older
horses SMOKEY OAKEY is too risky. VIKING STORM
comes out badly as a 4yo debutant. O MA LAD has that
same problem and is short of backclass. The only horse I
see as safe and solid has to be LAYLINE my choice here.

Selection - LAYLINE


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