No Selection Today

1 Mention Today

Thirsk 6.05

FAIR PASSION 10/1

Each Way


I probably shouldn't go with a bet today but I have done.
Its the usual Saturday dilemma. Much harder to nail one
in the Saturday Fog but the day many want a bet. I liked
her profile and FAIR PASSION is at least a big price and
we get 4 places. I have wasted half an hour trying to get
the decision right as HENRY BEE also interested me in
the 2.40pm at Thirsk. Conjured up all sorts of split stake
possibilities. In the end I go with FAIR PASSION but we
have 18 previews and 5 specially highlighted so lets see
how we get on today. There will be a Sunday Message.



T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

I have crossed swords with 18 races today so dont get
any ideas about following the message as there are so
many hard races it would be unwise. Something has to
give with so much to cover so I've left Doncaster and
the National Hunt. Newmarket Goodwood and Thirsk
dominated message and these are my stronger options.


Thirsk 2.40 - HENRY BEE 7/1 Each Way

A dilemma here as my stats throw this horse up as one
I should seriously consider but they are based on unsafe
angles with low sample sizes. HENRY BEE surprisingly
came out extremely well albeit with that low sample.

Goodwood 2.50 - LUI REI 4/1

Wouldnt be surprised if I have been saved a loser by a
non runner reducing the field to 7 runners. Because of
that I wont make him my bet. It may do me a favour
as he is hard to read and hard to win with and I do not
know what his best conditions are. Statistically though
he comes out as the only clear option in a race. I will
be interested to see if he can deliver as he doesnt often
do that when he should. Throwaway interest bet I feel
but privately happy a non runner makes the decision
for me and because of that I wont put him up.

Newmarket 3.10

Everything has been said in the 2000 Guineas. Almost
everything as nobody has raised a possibility discussing
Camelot's chance that the compromise solution must
be to bet him Place Only around 4/6 or 4/5. It may be
the best option. It wipes out all the breeding arguments
and it looks like this is a very substandard Guineas this
year. I feel his place price is better value than his win
price. I'm splitting stakes. CAMELOT to place with a
win bet on FRENCH FIFTEEN going for a big return.


Newmarket 3.45

JONNY MUDBALL 12/1 +

I think the rose tinted spectacles may be on here and
he may just want further and be too speculative a bet.
Its Saturday though and I try and look for better odds
and he is an option I have. Looks mimimum stakes.

Thirsk 6.05

FAIR PASSION 10/1

Thirsk is a cruel track and under no illusions that a 5f
sprint here invites all sorts of conundruns. I was very
interested in FAIR PASSION 10/1 here. I think she is
drawn well. She has a surprisingly good profile and I'd
argue is the fittest horse in the race. I dont care she's
never won on Grass. I do care that she may have to
do things the hard way if she is slowly away as that's
happened once or twice.




F r i d a y 's R e v i e w

It certainly didnt go as planned yesterday. I am going to
divide the blame about. The Mark Johnston man can get
his share for Limit Up and I don't blame myself fo that.
I blame Adam Kirby for a shocking ride on Douze Points
which cost him what should have been an easy win. The
other two bets which I clubbed together as the split stake
bet was down to me. No complaints with CYFLYMDER.
He ran well in second and his fitness helped and he just
ran into one better on the day. I Dont think he was the
wrong bet just the wrong staking and perhaps he was the
sensible one each way. The mention yesterday lost with
DANSILI DUTCH only managing 4th. When I watched
her I thought she was dwarfed by some bigger horses and
lacked size and scope and may not have coped. That was
my main mistake yesterday and sadly that was all it took
for the bet to go down. I didn't fancy the message much
and despite the odd winner and several each way places
it hung on the main bet and that one losing spoilt it all.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S



N e w m a r k e t 2.00

5/1 Fury, 6/1 Memory Cloth, 8/1 Circumvent
8/1 Danadana, 10/1 Spanish Duke, 10/1 Tullius
12/1 Dick Doughtywylie, 12/1 Proponent, 14/1 Fattsota
14/1 Graphic, 16/1 Licence To Till, 16/1 Mia´s Boy
16/1 Pleasant Day, 25/1 Albaqaa, 25/1 Askaud
25/1 Las Verglas Star.

This is a Top Class handicap over 9f. Several complications
not least the big field. I think the Draw is hard to read as well. If I was forced to commit my reading of the draw would be a very high draw is a problem. Maybe Stalls 13-14-15-16 have to be opposed. FATTSOTA didnt look strong enough drawn 13 anyway. DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE did not do enough last time. I can leave LICENCE TO TILL well beaten last time a horse that may not like the ground and ASKAUD impossible to fancy on draw or profile. I looked at all Class 2 Handicaps between 8f 9f 10f. Exposed horses aged 8 or more struggled in every Class 2 handicap between 8f and 10f. There are 129 of these races. Horses aged 8 or more are just 2-129 and just Norton (2005) and Nanton (2011) managed it and both had runs this season. It tells me PROPONENT has to go as he is 8 and absent 224 days on a career high mark. MIA´S BOY's also rejected as an 8yo and absent over a month.This race usually goes to an unexposed horse. You dont want exposed horses with just one run this year. ALBAQAA fails that and ran too badly last time. CIRCUMVENT also fails that angle and as he has a months break and comes from a Group Race which isn't the norm I am leaving him alone. I couldnt have LAS VERGLAS STAR beaten miles last time out. GRAPHIC looks vulnerable as a 3 year old with 1 run this year. There was a similar 3yo winning but he was lighter raced and Won last time out and GRAPHIC didnt. I am shorlisting 6 horses.

S h o r t l i s t

* PLEASANT DAY - I have found debutants like him
* Enough to shortlist but the ground must be a concern
* TULLIUS - Interesting and statistically safe
* Upgrade in stable and he could go very well
* FURY - Clearly a huge runner but hard to read
* His price isnt that attractive but it is his weight too
* He has a tough burden with 9st 10lbs
* SPANISH DUKE - Not unlike 2006 winner
* Not sure a regressive will stable produce him spot on
* DANADANA - There are 4 year olds winning like him
* Again will Cumani have him right after an absence ?
* MEMORY CLOTH - Must not underestimate with recent win
* Not as safe as I'd like being lightly raced
* He is up in class and weight as well
* In the end the first time out 4 year olds persuaded me

Selection

TULLIUS 14/1 + Win Bet
DANADANA 8/1 + Win Bet



T h i r s k 2.10

5/2 Mayfield Girl, 4/1 Hiddon Coin, 6/1 Brazilian Clown
7/1 Peep N Creep, 7/1 Shrimper Roo, 8/1 Taxiformissbyron
10/1 Mount Seymour, 12/1 Elusive Shadow

This maiden is dominated by some unraced horses so its
not worth much time. One issue is MAYFIELD GIRL a
horse with 2 runs but beaten 7 lengths last time and has
she done enough statistically to bet against the unraced
horses ? The answer is possibly not. She's done enough
to respect and shortlist but I would have liked better. It
is a race where I can only guess. HIDDON COIN looks
fancied. He was backed very early to win this and may
be the best guess. Equally I liked MAYFIELD GIRL as
a Place bet around 4/6 if thats available later. Not sure
I want her to win the race but two runs is an advantage
and are 3 unraced horses really going to beat her ? She
could be a solid part of the staking in this race and we
could be on MAYFIELD GIRL to place which is solid
and safe with the riskier win bet on HIDDON COIN.



G o o d w o o d 2.15


8/11 Vita Nova, 9/2 Polygon, 9/2 Tameen
8/1 Western Pearl, 12/1 Qushchi, 16/1 Shimmering Surf
33/1 Creme Anglaise, 33/1 Twin Soul, 40/1 Bolivia.

This is a fillies Listed race over 12f. Its quite a unique
race at this time of year. Clearly VITA NOVA has the
best chance as he is clear on the ratings. He probably
will win but the seasonal debutants that won this race
were all 4 year olds and VITA NOVA is a 5yo. If you
look at previous renewals seasonal debutant 4 year olds
score handsomely. TAMEEN and POLYGON fit that
profile and are better value than the odds on favourite.
I think the best plan is to bet both with one each way.

Selection

TAMEEN 9/1 Each Way
POLYGON
7/1 Win Bet



N e w m a r k e t 2.30

* This 12f Group race doesnt offer me much
* Male horses aged 4-5 dominate
* No exposed horse has won this in well over 2 decades
* DUNADEN and BLUE BAJAN obvious wrong types
* Many clearly have issues on the ground or fitness
* Makes the race unsatisfactory and hard to read
* AL KAZEEM - May need it more than most
* Andre Fabre was twice won this with absent horses
* MEANDRE looks a massive runner
* He is probaby best in a small field as welll
* MEANDRE would be my idea of the likely winner



T h i r s k 2.40


7/2 Lollina Paulina, 4/1 Sky Crossing, 5/1 Nearly A Gift
6/1 Dark Falcon, 7/1 Fairway To Heaven, Fortrose Academy
8/1 Show Flower, 10/1 Henry Bee.

This 6f Classified Stakes race is a statistical mess and I
dont see a strong edge. All I can say is that in this and
similar races no fillies have won with under 7 runs and
none came from maidens so LOLLINA PAULINA and
SHOW FLOWER have plenty to prove. Horses with 1
run this year like SKY CROSSING have underperformed.
NEARLY A GIFT isnt right. FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN
has a difficult absence to overcome as most winners are
either seasonal debutants or ran within 2 weeks. That's
narrowed it down to three admittedly unsafe options. I
respect DARK FALCON and FORTROSE ACADEMY.
I think the best profile belongs to HENRY BEE.

* Horses from 3yo maidens
* Running within 2 weeks
* Male horses
* 5 or more career starts
* Similar horses had a 4-6 record
* The 2003-2004 winners of this had this profile

Selection - HENRY BEE 7/1 Each Way




G o o d w o o d 2.50

5/2 Steps, 4/1 Sugar Beet, 4/1 Taurus Twins
6/1 Lui Rei, 7/1 Tagula Night, 8/1 Judge ´n Jury
10/1 Desert Phantom, 16/1 Rowe Park.

* Fascinating 0-93 handicap over 5f
* Annoying a non runner leaves just 7 runners
* ROWE PARK - Happy to oppose a 9yo debutant
* JUDGE ´N JURY - I dont want an 8yo debutant either
* JUDGE ´N JURY has never won first time out
* His 3 runs here before were all unplaced
* STEPS is a 4yo filly first time out
* Not a strong record and a career high mark
* SUGAR BEET - Hard to read as a filly from a listed race
* I have found 3 winning fillies doing that
* Nonbe were as exposed as she is though
* Conscious she is very fit so shouldnt be underestimated
* She does look badly handicapped though off 93
* TAGULA NIGHT - Badly beaten last time
* All horses his age overcoming a bad run differed
* They all had more backclass than he does
* They all had just 1 run this season as well
* DESERT PHANTOM - I cant quite match him

Selection

LUI REI 4/1

This is the only horse with a good profile. He is however
a coomplete enigma. Easily has the ability to win but it's
unclear to me what his best trip and ground is. LUI REI
is not one you can rely on to run his race and there is an
annoying doubt that he may be being laid out for Epsom
on Derby day but in this race I have no other options to
consider and LUI REI comes out as comfortably the bet.





N e w m a r k e t 3.10

7/4 Camelot, 7/1 Abtaal, 8/1 Born To Sea
9/1 Trumpet Major, 10/1 French Fifteen, 10/1 Power
12/1 Top Offer, 16/1 Fencing, 20/1 Hermival
25/1 Caspar Netscher, 40/1 Bronterre, 40/1 Talwar
66/1 Coupe De Ville, 66/1 Red Duke, 100/1 Boomerang Bob
100/1 Redact, 100/1 Saigon, 200/1 Ptolemaic.

* The 2000 Guineas is a Classic race over a Mile for 3yo's
* The Draw is very confusing here
* Frankel won from Stall 1 and Sea The Starts from Stall 17
* Thats just in 3 seasons and is inconclusive
* Only Abtal is drawn low from the fancied horses
* The rest are drawn high which could isolate them
* There are a few horses I can't bet
* BORN TO SEA is a half brother to Sea The Stars
* They share a Dam but I dont like his sire Invincible Spirit
* I looked at every winner this sire has had at 8f and more
* None of these won in higher than Listed Class before
* Those running over 8f + in Group races are 0-33
* He has only won over 6f and his Sire never ran at a mile
* I dont think he is bred to win a Guineas
* TRUMPET MAJOR looks overexposed with 9 runs
* Recent winners of this had 3 5 2 4 1 7 3 5 2 5 3 4 3 2 5 runs
* He has two more than any previous winner
* He was impressive in the Craven but didnt beat much
* It was a slow time and falsely run race
* Should go close and a place looks more than possible
* With 9 runs I expect something to beat him
* TOP OFFER has raced just once not a good sign
* Golan managed it in 2001 but its not an advantage
* TOP OFFER wouldnt be my first choice
* We know the most experienced recent winner had 7 runs
* CASPAR NETSCHER has 11 and looks wrong
* FENCING - Needs to improve and held by Camelot
* You can never underestimate John Gosden to get that

S h o r t l i s t


* POWER is clearly very smart
* He is also only the O'Brien second string
* If we bet him we have to accept Camelot looks better
* Drawn 17 his wont have too many options
* ABTAAL is French but I'd respect him
* Started Evens favourite when beaten 2nd in his trial
* He is a huge horse thats hard to get fit so I excuse that
* He could make significant improvement today
* He would be on my shortlist but he may not want it soft
* He is also isolated in Stall 2 away from the main runners
* FRENCH FIFTEEN won the Prix Djebel last time out
* A Good trial race for this he had ABTAAL in second
* Many feel ABTAAL may have the more improvement
* FRENCH FIFTEEN still won that trial and was impressive
* Its bound to be close between them though
* FRENCH FIFTEEN has 7 runs and 3 already at a mile
* ABTAAL has just 4 runs and 1 at a Mile
* I think on faster ground Abtaal looks the one
* FRENCH FIFTEEN - I'd rather have him on softer ground
* CAMELOT from Aidan OBrien's stable is the one to beat
* There are some doubts about CAMELOT
* CAMELOT won the Racing Post trophy last year
* Since 1982 there have been 9 Racing Post winners in this race
* None of these have won and only 1 finished placed
* CAMELOT is bred more for the Derby than the Guineas
* His Sire (Montjeu) has 28 Group 1-2 wins with horses aged 3 +
* He hasnt had any at 9f and shorter yet
* I'd ignore that as only 7 tried and 5 started 40/1 or more
* Montjeu doesnt get Group 1 Milers aged 3 + is a dud stat
* Only 7 tried and 5 were 40/1 40/1 and 100/1 +
* Only 2 were remotely fancied and one was 10/1
* The other was Sir Nicholas Abbey
* I think CAMELOT has a great chance

Selection

S p l i t S t a k e

I said earlier in the week that a "Door may open" in the
race and by that I meant the Without the favourite market
could offer something. I thought FRENCH FIFTEEN had
a great chance each way at 7/1 without the favourite but it
is dissapointing only 3 firms price the race up. Because of
that I am going with a different bet much as the above has
to be my prefered option. It is a split stake bet on 2 horses.

FRENCH FIFTEEN 11/1 Win Bet

CAMELOT - Place Bet 4/5




T h i r s k 3.20

5/1 Namwahjobo, 5/1 The Osteopath, 6/1 Blues Jazz
8/1 Sam Nombulist, 10/1 Defence Council, 10/1 Mujaadel
10/1 Point North, 12/1 Mon Brav, 14/1 Amazing Star
14/1 Orpsie Boy, 16/1 Klynch, 20/1 Day Of The Eagle
20/1 Kalk Bay, 20/1 Silenceofthewind.

* This is a 7f handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* Go back to 2008 and handicaps here with 11 + runners
* Horses drawn 1 and 2 had a combined 0-57 record
* I'd be reluctant to bet those horses
* DEFENCE COUNCIL - Not for me Drawn 2
* Not with ground doubts and an average profile
* DAY OF THE EAGLE - Worst draw longest absence
* MON BRAV - Not for me exposed and first time out
* He hasnt won from his mark and I fear ground doubts
* THE OSTEOPATH is 9 and not quite right
* No horse his age dropped in ntrip to win
* All 9 year olds ran better as well last time
* ORPSIE BOY - Has to go as a 9yo seasonal debutant
* MUJAADEL is 7 and won last time out
* I dont like the fact he has been off 34 days since a win
* He has questions to answer on a career high mark
* SILENCEOFTHEWIND didnt do enough last time
* POINT NORTH also fell short on his last run
* KLYNCH - Bit too much to prove at this trip
* KALK BAY - Unsafe first time out after downgrading

Shortlist

* BLUES JAZZ - Respected but has to progress again
* AMAZING STAR - Worth considering
* NAMWAHJOBO - 4yo debutant so respected
* SAM NOMBULIST - One of the better runners
* I'd have liked a smaller shortlist
* It has to be a split stake bet

SAM NOMBULIST 5/1
AMAZING STAR 10/1





G o o d w o o d 3.30

This 14f handicap leaves me cold. There are not many
similar Class 2 handicaps. The stats say horses aged 4-5
dominate these races and 4yo debutants have a brilliant
record. NO HERETIC fits that profile and is an option.
FOUR NATIONS has a slightly better profile and on my
stats deserves to be the selection much as I hate the stable.




N e w m a r k e t 3.45

9/2 Mayson, 6/1 Hamish Mcgonagall, 7/1 Margot Did
8/1 Definightly, 10/1 Eton Rifles, 10/1 Inxile
12/1 Jonny Mudball, 12/1 Temple Meads
14/1 Night Carnation, 16/1 Caledonia Lady
16/1 Move In Time, 20/1 Elusivity, 20/1 Spirit Quartz
20/1 Stepper Point, 50/1 Astrophysical Jet, Foxy Music.

* Palace House Stakes is a Group 3 race over 5f
* There has been 24 renewals since 1987
* There are hardly any big field 5f races here
* That makes assesing the Draw an issue
* From the sample I have I'd avoid Very High draws
* I dont think very high or very low are helpfull
* Predict the worst stalls are 1-2-17-18
* Avoid horses aged 7 or more who are 1-50 in this race
* ETON RIFLES is a 7yo debutant and not for me
* He has run 24 times and never once at 5f
* HAMISH MCGONAGALL is also 7
* He is 0-8 in Listed or Group class with just 1 place
* He may pop up but 7yo winners are rare in this race
* INXILE is also 7 and older than ideal
* He has been busier than almost all past winners this year
* Fillies are 3 are 0-18 in this race
* CALEDONIA LADY fails that and looks unsafe
* MAYSON was very impressive last time over 6f
* This is 5f though and there are problems with his profile
* I looked at all 4 year olds that came from 6f races
* Male 4 year olds doing that had a 0-22 record
* MAYSON is unsafe for me and will Stall 2 really help ?
* ELUSIVITY has the same problem aged 4 from 6f
* TEMPLE MEADS - Absent too long from Stall 1
* MARGOT DID - Hard to read as a filly last running abroad
* There were 3 winning fillies and all 3 dropped from 6f
* MARGOT DID doesnt do that and isnt an ideal match
* NIGHT CARNATION has the same problem
* She's a filly from 5 with a difficult draw as well
* MOVE IN TIME - Not unlike the 1993 winner
* I'd give him a chance from a stable with 2 wins in this

Shortlist

* DEFINIGHTLY - Looks a positive
* Last years winner was also a 6yo debutant
* Puts me off a bit he has no form at 5f before
* JONNY MUDBALL - I think he has a big chance
* Last year he was beaten half a length in this race
* He was a seasonal debutant last year
* His trainer said before the race he wasnt 100% fit
* Last years race was as good as this on paper
* JONNY MUDBALL runs again and has a prep run now
* It wasnt a great race but he did win it
* He is lightly raced and shouldnt be written off
* I am more worried about his rivals flaws anyway

Selection

JONNY MUDBALL 12/1 + Each Way



T h i r s k 3.55

We don't have enough evidence in this 7f maiden to be
confident especially with many like KEYAADI without
a run before. It bothers me DREAM PROSPECTOR has
got Stall One much as it's not an impossible draw. I hate
the fact DOS AMIGOS started 100/1 in his maiden and
horses doing that have awful records much as its a very
technicaly uncomfortable angle to side with. Its a guess
and ALL OR NOTHIN each way is mine with not feel
for the race not being able to rate these types.


N e w m a r k e t 4.20

9/2 Es Que Love, 8/1 Al Khan, Mince, 8/1 Ultrasonic
12/1 Democretes, 12/1 Muarrab, 12/1 Personal Touch
12/1 Sans Loi, 14/1 Mezzotint, 14/1 Red Quartet
16/1 Fulbright, 16/1 Heartsong, 16/1 I´ll Be Good
16/1 Muaamara, 16/1 Tioman Legend, 20/1 Gold Lace
20/1 Princess Of Orange, 20/1 Right Result
25/1 Alejandro, 25/1 Hurry Up George, 40/1 Parc De Launay.

This is a nightmare of a 3yo handicap and not a race we
should spend much time on. A Few little statistical steers
looks best. Horses that have raced once this season have
won this race before but none had 7 or more races and I
would see them as the wrong types. Horses that raced at
7f this season also have a dissapointing record too. The
record of fillies that had already run in Listed or Group
class before is 0-51 and not for me. AL KHAN comes
here from a Group race something no past winners did.
I wasnt keen on HEARTSONG or MINCE as fillies and
from 5f races. Not keen on PERSONAL TOUCH as he
is a small horse and out of the handicap. MEZZOTINT
wont have the same improvement as some. I liked the
recent form ES QUE LOVE has beating SANS LOI and
I think ES QUE LOVE may confirm that form because
he looks better drawn to me. No good thing at all but I
thought the best bet was ES QUE LOVE each way here.



T h i r s k 4.30

5/2 Farhh, 8/1 Osteopathic Remedy, 10/1 Extraterrestrial
10/1 Mont Ras, 10/1 Space War, 10/1 Stevie Thunder
10/1 Wannabe King, 12/1 Dubai Dynamo, 12/1 Kiwi Bay
14/1 Advanced, 16/1 Clockmaker, 16/1 Hot Rod Mamma
16/1 Kay Gee Be, 16/1 Kingscroft, 20/1 Dhaular Dhar
20/1 Don´t Call Me, 20/1 Majestic Dream, 33/1 Mabait.

* The Hunt Cup is an 8f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses
* It was upgraded to a Class 2 handicap in 2005

* There are 48 similar Class 2 Handicaps in May
* There isnt a strong draw bias but stalls 16-17-18 are weak
* Horses rarely win 7f races here draw that high
* OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY is drawn worst in 18
* Makes no appeal as an 8yo coming from a 6f race
* MABAIT has a bad draw in stall 16
* That and a 79 day break damage his chance
* MONT RAS has a bad draw in stall 17
* Not many unexposed 5yo's win so I wont overlook it
* Horses aged 7 or more have struggled in similar races
* DHAULAR DHAR - Absent too long for a 10yo
* EXTRATERRESTRIAL - Unsafe as 8yo with no recent run
* ADVANCED has to go aged 9 and from a 6f race
* KAY GEE BE looks unsafe aged 8 from a claimer
* STEVIE THUNDER comes out badly aged 7
* Especially with 1 run this season
* The only winner doing that had much more backclass
* STEVIE THUNDER has a very tough handicap mark
* DUBAI DYNAMO is 7 not the best age
* He has been busier this year than is normal for these races
* Not sure he ran well enough last time anyway
* CLOCKMAKER is wrong exposed and from 6f
* WANNABE KING is exposed and down in trip
* The only winners doing that had 3 + runs that season
* WANNABE KING only has 1 and looks short
* MAJESTIC DREAM - 4yo debutant but too exposed
* HOT ROD MAMMA is wrong as a mare from 7f
* DON´T CALL ME - Not convinced he did enough last time
* I wanted a more recent run or a better last run

S h o r t l i s t


* FARHH is Godolphin and has just 2 career runs
* Very sexy horse without a run in 189 days
* The issue is whether you can win with just 2 runs
* I looked at all Class 2 handicaps for similar types
* Those racing first time out with just 2 races
* I found winners that managed that
* Pekan Star did it at York last year with 2 runs
* Soldiers Tale did it back in 2005 with 2 runs
* There were just 2 differences
* Both had at least 9lbs less weight
* Both came from maidens
* FARHH comes from a handicap

* KIWI BAY - Just gets shortlisted despite being a 7yo
* I found 1 winner like him
* He was beaten 7 lengths in this last year
* That was off a higher weight and with just 1 run last year
* This year he has two runs and has a squeak

* KINGSCROFT is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* I found 1 similar winner so shortlist him
* That horse did run better last time

* SPACE WAR finished 3rd in last years race
* He had a bad profile last year but better this year
* I found a 5yo seasonal debutant like him
* I cant rule him out and respect him

Selection

FARHH is a judgement call as you can see. There is some
unproven elements to his profile that are enough to argue
he is too short at 7/4 in a race like this. I am having split stake bets on 3 big priced horses that came out quite well.


* KIWI BAY 16/1 One third Stakes

* KINGSCROFT 16/1 One third Stakes

* SPACE WAR 16/1 One third Stakes





N e w m a r k e t 4.55


Nothing much I can say here. I felt STENCIVE was too
unproven with just 1 run beaten in a maiden. I could not
an unraced horse so MICHELANGELO is out. I thought
NOBLE MISSION was too short. He only won a maiden
last time. Hyped up as Frankel's brother he drifted badly
that day and not all his rivals ran to form. He did it well
and I am not saying he wont win only saying others here
have achieved more a better prices. MISTER MUSIC is
respected and had their been more runners I'd have seen
him as a place bet. MARINER´S CROSS just gets the vote.




T h i r s k 5.05

This is a 12f maiden. Not many can win this but those
that can are hard to read. ROCKTHERUNWAY looks
fine and did enough to at least shortlist but its hard to
know if he did enough to expect a win. I may be wrong
but I am opposing NOBLE ALAN as a 9yo chaser and
very very few horses win maidens like him. AEGAEUS
may need another run and didnt do much on his debut.
HAMAN is a big threat if he stays. I will save on him.
Its HAMAN as a saver but ROCKTHERUNWAY the
selection who also makes appeal in each way doubles.



N e w m a r k e t 5.30

7/2 Archbishop, 9/2 Rewarded, 11/2 Frog Hollow
7/1 Fourth Of June, 17/2 Campanology, 9/1 Devdas
10/1 Elkhart, 11/1 Hadaj, 12/1 Ghost Protocol
12/1 Ghostwriting, 16/1 Mr Red Clubs.

* This is a high quality 3yo handicap
* It has changed in class over the years
* There are some good angles in the race
* I would want the following type of horse

* You want a lightly raced low weight
* You want a horse thats had under 6 career starts
* Horses that raced this season did better
* Most big weighted horses have dissapointed here
* Horses with 9st 3lbs or more are 1-59 in this race
* Every past winner had under 6 runs
* Seasonal debutants have a 2-94 record this race
* Last years winner was a seasonal debutant
* There were 5 debutants last year in an 8 runner race
* That doesnt prove the tide has turned
* The following horses have questionable profiles
* HADAJ - Thought his weight was a worry on the ground
* MR RED CLUBS - Nasty absence and high weight
* GHOST PROTOCOL - First time out with high weight
* GHOSTWRITING - More exposed than all past winners
* ELKHART - First time out and already 6 runs isnt ideal
* CAMPANOLOGY - Looks a bit too exposed
* FROG HOLLOW - First time out with a high weight
* DEVDAS - Not quite right first time out with 6 runs
* FOURTH OF JUNE was worth considering
* I failed him though as he comes from Class 4
* All similar winners came from a higher grade

S h o r t l i s t

* ARCHBISHOP is a seasonal debutant
* Not ideal but he has raced just twice before so ignore it
* This horse could be well handicapped off 88
* My only doubt is has Brian Meeham got him fit
* REWARDED also has 2 runs and is a debutant
* His win 8 days ago was a walkover so doesnt count
* I could make a good case for REWARDED
* I have two worries about him though
* Does he have the worst jockey and trainer in the race
* Not meant to be disrespectful but others look stronger
* ARCHBISHOP is my choice despite racing first time out

Selection - ARCHBISHOP



T h i r s k 5.35

I felt YAZDI would probably win



T h i r s k 6.05

6/1 Noodles Blue Boy, 7/1 Rasaman, 8/1 Mandalay King
8/1 Trade Secret, 9/1 Fair Passion, 10/1 Dispol Grand
10/1 Pelmanism, 10/1 The Nifty Fox, 12/1 Diamond Blue
14/1 Green Park, 14/1 Ingleby Star, 14/1 Select Committee
20/1 Bronze Beau, 20/1 Indian Trail, 20/1 Lenny Bee
20/1 Sleepy Blue Ocean, 25/1 Waking Warrior, 33/1 Ryedane.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* Thirsk has had 37 similar races in May before
* There are 266 similar races at all tracks
* This is one of the worst tracks for seasonal debutants
* The odd 1 pops up but they have a 1-130 record here
* I would oppose the following seasonal debutants
* LENNY BEE - INDIAN TRAIL -RYEDANE
* SELECT COMMITTEE - DIAMOND BLUE
* PELMANISM - Rejected first time out career high mark
* RASAMAN - Not overkeen aged 8 first time out
* THE NIFTY FOX - didnt do enough last time
* BRONZE BEAU - Not keen on his draw or profile
* DISPOL GRAND - Doesnt offer enough drawn badly
* GREEN PARK - Unsafe as a 9 year old
* SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN - Average profile at best
* WAKING WARRIOR wouldnt be first choice
* INGLEBY STAR - Issues with Ground - Draw - Rating

Possibles

* NOODLES BLUE BOY - His profile is acceptable no better
* TRADE SECRET - Down from 6f with 1 run this year
* I felt he was short on backclass myself
* MANDALAY KING - Profile is shortistable
* Draw and Jockey worry me a bit

Selection

* FAIR PASSION has quite an interesting profile
* Exposed 5 year old Mare
* Coming from a 5f handicap
* Running within 2 weeks
* 4-5-6-7 runs this season
* Beaten last time but not by over 10 lengths
* Similar horses had a 4-11 record
* High Draws do well in this race
* FAIR PASSION must have a good chance
* Unexposed on Turf she interests me

FAIR PASSION 10/1 + Each Way


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