No Selection Today

No Mentions Today



T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

Only one Flat meeting today on turf at Ayr so I've done
a few races there - many of these through gritted teeth.
No interest in Kempton tonight as 2yo's dominate here
and there isn't much I can do there. Thrown a couple of
National Hunt previews in too but it is not a substantial
message and I've only cherry picked a few races. There
are some statistics after that for Saturday's Cesarewitch
if anyone wants to look closely at the race in advance.

I have staked 3 bets in the bottom of today's message.
One of these (Ayr 4.40) includes a win bet and a saver
and a match bet so thats too complicated to stick here
at the top of the message so I will leave that up to you.

There are other options at the bottom as well despite
it being only a scrappy barrel scraping sort of message.
Friday and Saturday will be a lot more enjoyable with
decent races but today my gut feeling is keep it under
control today. I'm going with Two horses here rather
than take risk with more bets. Feels a day to survive
rather than risk too many bets given the soft ground.



Ayr 2.10

AL THUMAMA £6 Win 5/1

DUKE OF YORKSHIRE £4 Saver 9/4


Ayr 2.40

DELORES ROCKET 6/4

£10 win




W e d n e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

Good day yesterday with two of the three horses winning.
Started very well with AUTUN and then HARDY BLUE
but as both won in very close finishes it could easily have been a completely different day. SECRET ART managed
just second which cost us the each way double on that bet
I felt was the best but overall it was a good rewarding day.

****************************************************
****************************************************

P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


A y r 2.10

2/1 Duke Of Yorkshire, 11/4 Bell´arte
7/2 Mister Marcasite, 9/2 Al Thumama
7/1 Sir Frank Morgan.

* This is a 2yo Maiden over a Mile
* BELL´ARTE has a weak profile
* She is a filly beaten 10 + lengths over 6f last time
* I looked at all fillies that did just that
* I found 1 winner from 186 that tried
* I'd oppose BELL´ARTE based on that 1-186 record
* SIR FRANK MORGAN looks easy to avoid
* MISTER MARCASITE was well beaten over 7f last time
* Horses doing that in Auction maidens struggled
* I am Shortlisting the following 2 horses
* AL THUMAMA - I'd see her with a good chance
* DUKE OF YORKSHIRE - Just about the best profile

Selection

AL THUMAMA £6 Win 5/1

DUKE OF YORKSHIRE £4 Saver 9/4




E x e t e r 2.20

7/4 Printmaker, 11/4 Tamira, 10/1 Favoured Nation
12/1 His Lordship, 14/1 All Systems Go, Iznt Getting Court
20/1 Mon Desir, 20/1 Xaarcet, 25/1 Bincombe
25/1 Enchanting Smile, 25/1 Kings Flagship, Look For Love
33/1 Jawahal Du Mathan, 33/1 Proposable
33/1 Saffron Star, 100/1 Doctor Of Music.

* This is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 1f
* I looked at every October Novice Hurdle over 16f-18f
* TAMIRA is a female horse and unraced over hurdles
* I looked at how all unraced mares got on
* I found a miserable 0-130 record
* TAMIRA is therefore opposed
* PRINTMAKER is an unraced 4yo smart on the flat
* More than enough raw ability to win
* HIS LORDSHIP is a seasonal debutant 8yo
* I can find winners like him and have to respect him
* IZNT GETTING COURT - Hard to read. Place chance
* PRINTMAKER looks the obvious one
* Favoured Nation and His Lordship cant be ruled out
* Tempted by a split spake bet win and place to protect us
* Decided against that though
* PRINTMAKER would be my selection





A y r 2.40

13/8 Delores Rocket, 2/1 Polish Crown
8/1 Slipstream Angel 10/1 Corton Lad
12/1 Baker´s Pursuit.

* This is a 6f Nursery
* POLISH CROWN left me a little cold
* She is a filly from a 5f maiden which isnt a good profile
* By Royal Applause there will be a big ground doubt
* CORTON LAD - Not a negative but no backclass at all
* All similar winners had more than her
* BAKER´S PURSUIT - Unsafe and unimpressive profile
* SLIPSTREAM ANGEL - No winners were like her
* DELORES ROCKET - I see her as a "Positive Neutral"
* No winners were like her but none had her profile to try
* With the recent run I see her as a positive
* Her biggest problem is how sharp this track is
* Takes 4.5 seconds Less to run 6f here than Pontefract
* Last time at Pontefract she only just got there
* Thats a legitimate worry for her
* DELORES ROCKET has to be the selection though
* Rated 79 her nearest rival is rated just 68

Selection

£10 win DELORES ROCKET 6/4



E x e t e r 2.50

Evs Jewellery, 5/1 Flying Vic, 6/1 Annaluna
7/1 Magical Island, 12/1 Whistling Senator
16/1 Midnight Lira, 50/1 Band Of Thunder
50/1 Just Watch Ollie.

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 5f
* ANNALUNA is a 3yo filly
* I looked at how 3yo fillies got on in Sept - Oct - November
* The only 3yo fillies that won did it over 2 miles
* No 3yo filly has won in these months over further
* This is 5f further and I would oppose her
* ANNALUNA is not safe enough
* FLYING VIC is 5 and a seasonal debutant
* I looked at all seasonal debutant handicappers like him
* The only winners had 5 or more previous runs
* FLYING VIC has just 3 runs and topweight
* I can't rule him out but his profile is unsafe
* I would oppose ANNALUNA - FLYING VIC
* The alternative choice isnt simple
* MAGICAL ISLAND - I cant rule him out
* Despite being a 9yo and absent 814 days
* I have found a winner like him
* JEWELLERY is an obvious choice here but quite short
* This could be a race for a split stake bet

Selection

* JEWELLERY - Win Bet 7/4

* MAGICAL ISLAND Place Bet 4/5



A y r 3.40

7/2 Fieldgunner Kirkup, 9/2 Rothesay Chancer
11/2 Frequency, 6/1 Breezolini, 15/2 Dickie´s Lad
17/2 Beckermet, 9/1 The Nifty Fox, 10/1 Toby Tyler
11/1 Bond Fastrac, 12/1 Staff Sergeant.

This is division 2 of the 6f handicap. This is slightly more statistically friendly. I felt BECKERMET was wrong being a 10 year old and THE NIFTY FOX also fell short up from a 5f race. If you take exposed 4 year olds that come from a 5f race in the past month like ROTHESAY CHANCER you
find males are 1-84. That was recently a 0-83 record before
Waking Warrior won last week at Southwell with his profile.
It's still an unimpressive one so ROTHESAY CHANCE has
to be rejected. STAFF SERGEANT is out down from 9f too
far to come down in distance. BOND FASTRAC is absent a
bit too long for an exposed 5 year old. DICKIE´S LAD has
an unsafe profile with no 4 year olds winning from claimers. All exposed 4yo fillies that won had raced much more that season than BREEZOLINI has. I wanted stronger backclass to be able to match FREQUENCY to any similar winners.

Shortlist

* TOBY TYLER - Hard to read but found a winner like him
* FIELDGUNNER KIRKUP - Happy with his profile

Selection

FIELDGUNNER KIRKUP 4/1 Win Bet

TOBY TYLER 7/4 Place Bet




A y r 4.10

Not bothered about this 3yo handicap over 5f as there are
not enough similar races at this time of year. I dont think
that HELLO STRANGER is safe with 2 runs especially on
heavy ground. There are horses that won these races with
2 runs but none have managed it after August and we are a
long way from there. I would rather look elsewhere and as
a favourite I'd need to see a winner like him and none are.

* I would split stakes here as several can win this
* ELUSIVE BONUS to beat Hello Stranger in a Match Bet
* ELUSIVE BONUS to win the race 4/1



A y r 4.40

3/1 Amaze, 9/2 Hillview Boy, 9/2 Queen´s Estate
5/1 Act Your Shoe Size, 5/1 Watts Up Son
8/1 Another For Joe, 8/1 Gala Casino Star.

This is a Class 3 handicap over 10f and with a small field
of 7 runners it looks too messy and tactical. AMAZE did
look unsafe to me. He gets credit for being a lightly raced
4yo but he's only had 3 runs this season. Every other one
of his opponents have had at least twice that. I would see
him as slightly overrated and not safe. Dont forget this
is soft ground and AMAZE has ran just once in 105 days.
I felt HILLVIEW BOY was too old for his absence. I see
weakness in ANOTHER FOR JOE well beaten last time.
ACT YOUR SHOE SIZE wouldnt be my first choice as a
3yo filly with as many as 18 runs. GALA CASINO STAR
wouldnt be my first choice in what is a horrible race.

Shortlist

* QUEEN´S ESTATE - Probably just about acceptable
* WATTS UP SON - Shortlistable but handicapper in charge

Selection

* I would split stakes here
* £4 QUEEN´S ESTATE to beat AMAZE in a match bet
* £4 QUEEN´S ESTATE to win the race 7/2
* £2 Saver WATTS UP SON 11/2





A n t e P o s t S t a t i s t i c s

Saturday October 13th

Betfred Cesarewitch

(Heritage Handicap)

(CLASS 2) (3yo+) 2m2f

* The Cesarewitch is a 17f Handicap
* I have looked at every renewal since 1990
* I describe Exposed horses as those with 21 + runs
* Exposed horses won 7 of the last 22 renewals
* Those that had 8 or more runs that season were 1-112
* Horses aged 4 or 5 with 21 + career runs were 0-95
* Exposed horses losing10 lengths last time were 0-105
* Exposed horses that had a penalty were 0-16
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 last time out are 0-131
* Exposed horses coming from 12f or shorter are 0-28
* Exposed horses from 14f or shorter are 1-82 record
* No exposed horse had just 1 run this season
* 3 year olds have a 3-63 record
* You want a certain type of 3yo ideally with 9-12 starts
* Those with less (0-23) or more (0-121) have yet to win
* 3 year olds with under 3 career wins (0-32) struggle
* All 3 year old winners were 1-2-3 last time
* Four year olds havent scored well with a 4-220 record
* 4yo's with 14 + runs on the Flat had a 1-132 record
* All 4yo winners had under 6 runs that year (Others 0-129)
* Most 4 year olds had form in either Class 2 or Listed Class
* The only exception was last years winner
* 4 year old Fillies were 0-34
* 4 Year olds that lost by 10 lengths last time were 0-61
* No 4 year old came from 13f or less
* Horses aged 4 that had under 3 wins on the flat are 0-91
* No winning 4 year old had previous Group class form
* Horses aged 4 all had at least 4 runs this season
* Only 1 Filly has won since 1989 in a 1-86 record
* All 67 females aged 3-4-5 lost
* All 31 that didnt run within a month lost
* All 38 females coming from 15f or less lost
* Horses that had ran in Group Class before are fine
* Horses from a Group Class race won 2 races
* Both horses came from the Group 2 Doncaster Cup
* Horses with 7 + weeks absence won 7 of the last 22
* They were best when lighter raced
* Those with 7-12 career runs were 5-58
* Those with 13 + career runs had a 2-111 record
* Both winners were aged 7 or older
* 3 winners were absent 10 weeks or more
* Those with 13 + runs doing that were 0-59
* Horses beaten 10 lengths + last time out are 1-229
* Your horse should be 1-2-3-4-5 on latest run
* Horses failing that had a 2-252 record
* Those that had 13+ starts doing that were 0-184
* Horses that ran at 13 furlongs or less last time are 1-100
* All 62 horses that ran over 12f or less last time lost
* Horses that have penalties are 2-65
* Horses with Less than 2 career wins are 0-92

****************************************************
****************************************************