No Selection Today

No Mention Today


T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

Carlisle and Doncaster based message today. Both have
some fierce handicaps and big fields. Ideally I'm looking
for bets at big prices that offer as much reward possible
but also bring the least ammount of risk as well. Today
is probably not a day where we can enjoy that. Its hard
to find anything safe today and I cant see any full bet.

Some of the races are shortlists only. It is one of those
messages when any races are done at arms length. Not
a serious betting day. Done my best for those intending
to get involved this afternoon but happy at the top of
the message to just have one smaller staked suggestion.

Doncaster 3.05

CONFESSIONAL 12/1

I think he has been the forgotten horse of the race so
may be worth a small each way bet at a good price. It
is a bit more open than I'd like but at least its a decent
price and I wasnt keen on getting seduced into any bet.



S u n d a y 's S u m m a r y

There was no message on Tuesday so it just leaves the
Monday message to review. I concentrated on the Bath
card and suggested the message should be followed. Not
a bad effort at all. Not great prices but we had 3 winners
in 6 races including best bet Gladiatrix at 5/2 and it was
one of those messages that did what it said on the tin.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


C a r l i s l e 1.50

I don't see a realistic probability that I can sort this vile race so I won't try. POPPY BAND has a sweet and sour
profile. On the good side horses with 1 career race have
a 4-5 record but on the negative side in that 4-5 record
the only loser was a filly with an absence and I think we
should oppose her. I'd prefer ENA SHARPLES of the 2.



D o n c a s t e r 2.00

3/1 Red Avenger, 5/1 Hunting Rights, 5/1 Regal Dan
13/2 Bonnie Lesley, 13/2 Mirlo Blanco
8/1 Hipster, 14/1 Prince Regal, 14/1 Shahdaroba
20/1 Claude Greenwood, 50/1 Naughtybychoice

* This is a 7f Class 2 Nursery for 2 year olds rated 0-84
* NAUGHTYBYCHOICE - Worst draw and poor profile
* SHAHDAROBA - Hard to match from a 6f Conditions race
* Just felt he could be vulnerable with 9st 7lbs
* BONNIE LESLEY - Only filly and the wrong type of filly
* PRINCE REGAL - Complicated and just a bit unsafe
* REGAL DAN - Messy profile and I wasnt persuaded
* Beaten in a 6f Nursery with 5-8 runs is just average
* The only winners had 8st 3lbs or less as well
* REGAL DAN has a stone more weith to carry
* HUNTING RIGHTS comes from an 8f Nursery
* He was well beaten in that and only has Class 4 backclass
* I wanted more backclass and a better last run
* MIRLO BLANCO - Cant entirely rule him out
* Bothers me he started 50/1 in a maiden last time
* CLAUDE GREENWOOD - Technically nothing wrong at all
* Just worries me he was last on both his last two runs
* HIPSTER - Not a negative but profile only average
* I wanted more backclass or fewer runs to be a good profile
* RED AVENGER has 2 runs and won a 7f maiden last time
* I found 2 similar winners and he has the best profile

Selection

RED AVENGER - Best profile but 11/4 is about right




C a r l i s l e 2.20

* Another impossible handicap with no draw help
* I looked at all handicaps at and between 8f and 10f
* I hated older horses winning but having a months break
* The favourite Uncle Brit does this and I'd avoid him
* Technically Edas is too old but I wasnt sure about that
* I would keen Honoured on my side with a recent run


D o n c a s t e r 2.30

13/8 Ribaat, 2/1 Upward Spiral, 9/2 Cour Valant
13/2 Top Boy, 10/1 Threes Grand, 16/1 Tommy´s Secret.

This is a 6f Conditions race for 2 year olds. Nothing about
these races interests me. At least there is a long history in this race and it shows horses like TOMMY´S SECRET who
come from Nurseries are just 1-93 so he is out. The results
in this race show horses with 7 or more runs struggle badly
and I'd argue TOP BOY and THREES GRAND may be too
exposed. The longest absence in this race has been 7 weeks
and UPWARD SPIRAL has been off 12 weeks and as a filly
has to be unsafe. The 2 horses I can match to past winners
are RIBAAT and COUR VALANT. All past winners that
won 6f maidens last time had 1-2 career starts as these do.

Selection

RIBAAT - Half Stakes 11/8
COUR VALANT - Half Stakes 9/2



C a r l i s l e 2.50

11/10 Sorella Bella, 4/1 Marsh Dragon, 6/1 Back In The Frame 6/1 Ghur, 10/1 Al Thumama, 10/1 Alzavola
25/1 Beautifulwildthing, 66/1 Swaying Grace, 100/1 Misu Mac
100/1 Storma Norma.

Maiden fillies race over 7f and impossible to confident here with unraced 2 year olds. Favourite SORELLA BELLA has
had 7 chances to win and blown them all. My statistics hint
that is now too many and we should look to oppose her but
quite what with is the problems. If I bet SORELLA BELLA
it would be in an each way double because none of these 7f
fillies maidens went to a horse with as many runs as she has. I would stop a long way short of saying she's a negative and don't see any safe alternatives but in theory when these well raced types get to 7 runs something has beaten them so far. My stab in the dark would be the unraced ALZAVOLA 7/1.



D o n c a s t e r 3.05

9/4 Sole Power, 6/1 Kingsgate Native, 6/1 Nocturnal Affair
7/1 Valbchek, 8/1 Masamah, 12/1 Confessional, Desert Law
14/1 Pabusar, 16/1 Excelette, 16/1 Jwala, 20/1 Roicead
25/1 Noble Storm, 25/1 Timeless Call.

* This is a Listed Class race over 5f.
* I would want 4 or more runs this season
* 17 of the last 18 winners of this had that
* JWALA doesnt interest me with 2 runs this year
* No winners came from 3yo handicaps like her anyway
* VALBCHEK only has 3 runs
* This has not been a race for lightly raced horses
* The last 18 winners all had at least 9 career starts
* VALBCHEK - Limited evidence suggests the wrong type
* ROICEAD - I dont fancy him with 1 run this season
* KINGSGATE NATIVE is unsafe aged 7 and first time out
* NOBLE STORM is an exposed 6yo from a 5f race
* The only winners like him had Group 1 form
* NOBLE STORM doesn't and I felt others were better
* Horses aged 3 have a dissapointing 1-51 record in this
* I have oppose two horses aged 3 already
* EXCELETTE is also opposed as a 3yo
* The sole 3yo winner had more backclass than her
* She also had more runs this season and a more recent race
* TIMELESS CALL comes from a handicap
* Only 2 winners did that both had far more runs that year
* None were fillies and none were 4 year olds either
* TIMELESS CALL is both and looks unsafe
* DESERT LAW is an unexposed 4yo from 6f
* The 1997 and 2009 winners were similar
* They came from the same race with 1 difference
* They ran much better than DESERT LAW last time
* The main issue is did DESERT LAW do enough last time
* Statistically there is a doubt

Shortlist

* PABUSAR is an unexposed 4yo from 5f
* I can live with his profile and he is shortlistable
* Not 100% matchable but he should be considered
* The 2010 winner came from the same race
* 3 winners came from the Nunthrorpe at York
* They were all unexposed 3-4 year olds
* SOLE POWER is an exposed 5yo doing that
* I looked at all exposed winners like SOLE POWER
* Almost all had 7 + runs that year and he has 5 runs
* The only winner that didnt was a different age
* Exposed horses from Group 1 races were 0-18
* May not mean much but I'd have liked a closer match
* He isnt for me especially as 9/4 is just t oo short
* NOCTURNAL AFFAIR is also exposed from a Group 1
* I'd ignore that as he has spent all his early career abroad
* He won the Portland Handicap at this meeting last year
* He wasnt beaten far in the Nunthorpe last time
* He was entitled to need that race as well
* MASAMAH is an exposed 6yo
* I see enough to shortlist with good recent excuses
* Unfit at Nottingham the ground beat him at York
* I dont see why he shouldnt go close in this
* He has had a lot of runs in the last 5 weeks though
* He is also drawn 13 of 13 which isnt certain to help
* CONFESSIONAL is an exposed 5yo
* Not unlike the 2000 winner
* CONFESSIONAL is 0-9 in Listed Grade or higher
* The 2000 winner was 0-13 in that Grade before winning

Selection

* CONFESSIONAL 12/1 Each Way
* The alternative bet would be a Win bet and 2 savers
* My savers would be Masamah and Nocturnal Affair
* CONFESSIONAL 12/1 Each Way is my final choice



C a r l i s l e 4.30

7/2 Anton Chigurh, 7/2 Master Of Arts
5/1 Osteopathic Remedy, 8/1 Mirrored, 8/1 Oxford Charley
12/1 Hot Rod Mamma, 20/1 Dubai Dynamo.

* This is a 0-94 handicap just short of a mile
* MASTER OF ARTS - Have to oppose with 1 run since March
* DUBAI DYNAMO - Dont think he did enough last time
* MIRRORED - I felt the same with him
* HOT ROD MAMMA - No winners came from 14f
* That makes her unsfe especially as a mare
* She wasnt bred to stay last time but she is unsafe down 6f
* I can't risk her especially on a mark she's never won from
* OXFORD CHARLEY - Unusual set of attributes for a 3yo
* Already has Group form and form over further
* I Can find some promise in his profile but not convinced
* The two similar winners like him had long absences
* OXFORD CHARLEY - I think he is too unsafe
* OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY is 8 and won last time
* The only horses his age doing that had Group form
* I can't rule him out but equally I cant match him

Shortlist

* ANTON CHIGURH - Complicated Profile
* Had ANTON CHIGURH had Class 2 form he's be strong
* Had he done that similar horses would have been W W W
* He hasn't but he was close enough to merit respect
* I would consider him to be the most likely winners

Selection

ANTON CHIGURH 11/4





D o n c a s t e r 4.45

7/2 Strictly Silver, 5/1 Discression, 13/2 Born To Surprise
13/2 Otto The Great, 12/1 Alejandro, 12/1 Balty Boys
12/1 Compton, 12/1 Magic City, 14/1 Gatepost, Gold City
14/1 Oblitereight, 16/1 Accession, 20/1 Ewell Place
33/1 Red Aggressor.

* This is a Class 2 handicap for 3 year olds over 7f
* We only have 5 of these races anywhere in September
* This leaves us too small a sample size
* Start with the draw and 28 similar races since 2010
* These are 28 handicaps between 12 and 15 runners
* In these races horses drawn 1-2-3 were 0-79
* The horses drawn 1-2-3 may have bad draws
* All 5 winners had the following profiles
* They have between 7 and 13 career starts
* They had at least 4 runs that season
* They were all Male horses
* They all came from 7f or 8f handicaps
* Those handicaps were in either Class 2 or Class 3
* They had at least 2 career wins before

Shortlist

The favourite Strictly Silver just fails with 1 fewer runs
this year than is ideal. You could overlook that but the
above statistics lead me to three better matched profiles.

* COMPTON 16/1
* GATEPOST 33/1
* BALTY BOYS 14/1



C a r l i s l e 5.05

11/4 Lanarkshire, 4/1 Restaurateur, Boots And Spurs
13/2 Dark Ruler, 14/1 Falcon´s Reign, 14/1 Swift Encounter
25/1 Artillery Train.

* This is a 3yo handicap over a mile
* Complicated little race to sort out
* LANARKSHIRE - His absence makes him too unsafe
* SWIFT ENCOUNTER - Avoid with 1 run this season
* DARK RULER - Not far away. More positive than negative
* RESTAURATEUR - Respect him but 1 statistical flaw
* All similar 3yo winners had Class 3 form he doesnt
* ARTILLERY TRAIN - Felt there was better options

Shortlist

* BOOTS AND SPURS - Done enough and should be shortlisted
* FALCON´S REIGN - First impression was he may fall short
* I thought he may not have done enough last time
* Statistically that isnt the case and 2 winners like him
* FALCON´S REIGN looks the value at 7/1

Selection

FALCON´S REIGN 7/1 + Win Bet

BOOTS AND SPURS 9/4 Saver Bet




D o n c a s t e r 5.15

7/1 Flash City, 7/1 Haajes, 8/1 Drift And Dream
9/1 Tom Sawyer, 12/1 Cheworee, 12/1 Perfect Blossom
14/1 Close To The Edge, 14/1 Jack Luey, 14/1 Six Wives
16/1 Almond Branches, 16/1 Cheveton, 16/1 Excel Bolt
16/1 Marine Commando, 16/1 Whozthecat
20/1 Nomoreblondes, 20/1 Noodles Blue Boy, 20/1 Partner
25/1 Captain Scooby, 25/1 Even Stevens
25/1 Powerful Wind, 40/1 Bay Knight, 40/1 Captain Royale.

* This 5f Handicap looks too difficult
* I needed a strong draw bias but there is none
* All I can do is make a few quick points
* Avoid 3 year olds - They are 1-78 in this race
* 17 of the 18 winners ran within a Month
* 17 of the 18 winners had at least 2 runs in the last month
* Fillies had a poor 1-61 record in this race
* No other angles appealed in this race
* I did want to mention the draw here
* I looked at every race here since 2005
* No winners were drawn in stall 20 or higher
* This produces the following shortlist
* HAAJES - TOM SAWYER -EXCEL BOLT
* MARINE COMMANDO - PARTNER
* I would choose from one of these 3
* HAAJES -EXCEL BOLT - PARTNER

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