No Selection Today

No Mention Today



T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

I am going to take Friday off so there is no message
tomorrow but I'm around all day for anyone wanting
any thoughts on the days racing. I am using this day
to look early at the Saturday cards so when we look
back at the weekend it will be fascinating to see how
that extra day has helped or not and I think it will.


Starting with a very short National Hunt race but it
is not a strong bet. I'm staying with LINGFIELD as
I think it gives me the best chance. Hamilton has a
desperate card. It is heavy ground there and all the
races beyond 6f have 25 yards extra distance added
to them. The Frames are bad with unraced maidens
and small fields. Looks desperate and best avoided.
Kempton tonight has too many runners and I feel
we should ignore these cards are instead try and do
the Lingfield card accurately and concentrate there.


No Bet Today

It is one of those messages that has solid chances
all the way through. Could have winners but then
again could draw a blank. It's workmanlike and it
just puts you in the ballpark area. The rest comes
down to luck and whether the rains comes down.
I did consider going with Essell in the 2.30pm but
his price has shortened and watching his last race
on video I wasn't blow away. In fact I upgraded a
saver Wyebridge in the race to Joint selection as
I liked her last run more. I will be betting both of
these but I have decided I haven't made enough
of a case for a full bet. I like Saborido (3.30) but
will only bet him if the rains stay away. It is all
much the same today. Good solid chances in so
many races but nothing that really stands out.


* Next Message Saturday



W e d n e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

Turned into a really top quality confidence boosting
message yesterday. I didn't have enough time to pick
a bet but I might not have done one anyway. From 3
options we had 2 good winners. CONE DONKEY got
us off to a good start and delighted to get the negative
beaten. BRASINGAMAN ESPEE won at 8/1 and that
was a fascinating bit of analysis that could easily have
gone wrong. It insured the message was excellent and
the loser on Chosen One didn't detract much from it
especially as there were several other winners as well.
No complaints at all yesterday and it was good work.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


N a t i o n a l H u n t

There are 3 National Hunt fixtures today which feel out
of place. None offer me anything special having looked
at all the maiden and novice hurdles. The other races are
not something you can just get back into overnight when
I haven't focused on it in months. It would be the height
of arrogance to try. Only the one race caught me eye at
Fontwell so I will start with that and get it out of the way

F o n t w e l l 4.40

8/11 Danvilla, 7/4 She Ranks Me, 7/1 Two Mile Bridge
25/1 Cnoc Bui, 66/1 Cariboo Lady, 66/1 Charlies Lady.

* This is a mares novice hurdle over 2m 4f
* I expect the main two horses to dominate
* DANVILLA and SHE RANKS ME fight it out
* Both are 5 year old who won last time out
* There is a very good record of last time 5yo winners
* Statistical perfection would be the 5yo's with 4-5-6 runs
* DANVILLA doesn't acheive that as she has 2 starts
* SHE RANKS ME also fails that as she has 9 starts
* I am going to go with SHE RANKS ME and her 9 runs
* I think she is with a significantly better stable
* There should be improvement with her new yard
* DANVILLA beat SHE RANKS ME 27 days ago
* She had the better preparation that day
* SHE RANKS ME was having her first run for a new yard
* She then came out and won easily next time
* She has to improve to win but I think she can
* SHE RANKS ME looks worth an each way bet if 2/1
* It's 1/4 odds a place and only 2 places doesnt worry me
* Short of that I think she is better value

Selection - SHE RANKS ME




L i n g f i e l d 2.30

9/4 Compton Crofter, 5/1 Joyful Spirit, 5/1 Suedehead
8/1 Wyebridge, 12/1 Kaypea, 12/1 Lone Foot Laddie
16/1 Essell, 16/1 High Five Prince, 16/1 Joy To The World
16/1 Sovereign Waters, 20/1 There´s No Rules
25/1 Rowan Rhapsody.

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-60 rated 3 year olds
* The Draw suggests Stalls 1-2 are weak
* There are 18 handicaps here since 2008 with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2 are 0-33 in those races
* There are 9 renewals of this race
* All 9 winners had 5-13 runs
* They all had at least 3 runs that season
* They all ran within 6 lengths of the winner last time#
* Those beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-45
* If that happens again one of two will win
* ESSELL - COMPTON CROFTER
* Decided the horses with 3 runs were unlikely winners
* SUEDEHEAD -ROWAN RHAPSODY are rejected
* THERE´S NO RULES - KAYPEA are also out
* SOVEREIGN WATERS is underraced this season
* All fillies winning from 8f had more runs that season
* HIGH FIVE PRINCE - Weak profile and draw
* JOYFUL SPIRIT is a filly from a 7f race
* Shes a bit exposed with 10 runs doing that
* I cant match her to a winner
* JOY TO THE WORLD is another filly from 7f
* Her profile was also someway behind whats required
* LONE FOOT LADDIE fell short and isnt for me
* I needed a much better last run to consider


Shortlist

* WYEBRIDGE failed to do much last time
* I could overlook that as shes from a shrewd stable
* I like her more after morning support
* COMPTON CROFTER - Shortlisted
* ESSELL - Comfortably shortlisted
* ESSELL has the better profile for me

Selection

ESSELL 7/1 Win Bet

WYEBRIDGE 10/1 Win Bet





L i n g f i e l d 3.00

9/4 Pahente, 5/1 Blue Zealot 6/1 Locum
12/1 Red Willow, 16/1 Celtic Charlie
16/1 Formidable Guest, 25/1 Beggar´s Opera.

* Not keen on this low grade middle distance race
* If I had done the race these would be negatives
* BLUE ZEALOT - Wrong as a mare with 1 run this year
* RED WILLOW - Wrong as a mare with a huge absence
* BEGGAR´S OPERA didnt do enough last time
* FORMIDABLE GUEST - 8yo Mare badly beaten last time
* CELTIC CHARLIE has two problems for me
* The 4 races he has on turf were all heavy defeats
* All his form has been on the all weather
* He also has precious little backclass for a 7yo
* PAHENTE is a male 4yo and won last time
* The Male 4yo's winning last time all had under 13 runs
* PAHENTE has 15 runs and isnt a perfect match
* It was the fillies that won with more than 13 runs
* Could be a statistical blip but it makes him unsafe

Shortlist

* LOCUM is hard to match from a seller
* I found a winner like him with a bit more backclass
* This looks a drop in class which helps a lot
* I didnt see a better option in a nasty race
Selection

LOCUM 4/1 Win Bet




L i n g f i e l d 3.30

9/4 Dr Finley, 5/1 Our Folly, 5/1 Sunny Future
8/1 Dubai Glory, 8/1 Saborido, 8/1 Whenever
12/1 Sirius Superstar, 16/1 Almail, 16/1 Hawridge King.

* This is a 2m Handicap
* DR FINLEY won a 2m race last time out
* I looked at all exposed horses doing that
* These were fine but 5 year olds differed from him
* All the 5yo's winning last time had far more runs
* None won without 6 + runs that season
* DR FINLEY may not be ready to follow up with 3 runs
* HAWRIDGE KING is also opposed
* I dont want a 10yo with just 2 runs this year and a break
* DUBAI GLORY - weak profile for a filly
* Looked at 4 year olds beaten 10+ lengths last time
* With 1-2-3 runs that year they were 0-68
* SIRIUS SUPERSTAR fails that and falls short
* The above horses are my negatives in the race
* ALMAIL - Very complicated to read
* Doubt he wil win but he was neutral not a negative

Shortlist

* SUNNY FUTURE - 1 similar winner
* OUR FOLLY was a borerline case
* No recent run - Just Class 4 form - Just 5 runs that year
* I'd have prefered better in all these categories
* I did find 2 winners that had the same profile
* They were beaten under 2 lengths last time in a Class 5
* OUR FOLLY was beaten further - but it was a better race
* That gets OUR FOLLY shortlisted but only just
* WHENEVER - Hard to read but shortlisted
* I dont see why he cant win and his profile feels safe

Selection

* SABORIDO has to have a good chance down in class
* I dont have a problem with his profile
* There was a breeding angle I quite liked with him
* Dixie Union the Site has a great record at 14f +
* His runners at 14f and more are 7-20
* This sires runners are dreadful on soft ground
* Look at his runnes on fast at 14f and more
* They have a 7-16 record and SABORIDO is next to try

SABORIDO each way 9/2





L i n g f i e l d 4.00

7/4 Melbourne Memories, 5/2 Puteri Nur Laila
7/2 Silverrica, 6/1 Tregereth, 16/1 Princess Sheila
20/1 Tristessa, 33/1 Jubilini.

* This is a 2yo maiden for fillies
* TRISTESSA - Not first choice starting 40/1 last time
* TREGERETH - Fair chance without standing out
* SILVERRICA - Similar thoughts just an ok profile
* PUTERI NUR LAILA has an obvious chance
* Not as orthadox as I'd like though
* Looked at horses from 5f maidens absent 7 + weeks
* The only winners had 1 race and she has 3
* Those with 2 + runs like her came from 6f race
* MELBOURNE MEMORIES has a much more solid profile
* One run recently beaten under 6 lengths last time
* Similar fillies had a 9-23 record

Selection - MELBOURNE MEMORIES



L i n g f i e l d 4.30

5/1 Catflap, 6/1 Haadeeth, 6/1 Imjin River
6/1 Red Mischief, 7/1 Samba Night, 7/1 The Tichborne
12/1 Belle Bayardo, 12/1 Danzoe 14/1 Dickie Le Davoir

This is an ordinary 6f handicap. I ran a few profiles and
first to go was SAMBA NIGHT from the worst draw and
down from a Mile. RED MISCHIEF isnt a negative but I
felt she was not offering me enough to ignore what may
be one very tough draw. I dislike CATFLAP a 3yo Filly
from 5f. I dont think DICKIE LE DAVOIR will return
to winning ways today at this track. HAADEETH does
have some sort of chance statistically but I want more
recent promise. I have to shortlist as many as 5 horses.

* IMJIN RIVER - Acceptable profile but not brilliant
* DANZOE - Good chance if the rain stays away
* BELLE BAYARDO - Hard to read but shortlistable
* Well treated but no 6f wins and could do anything
* THE TICHBORNE - 1 winner like him
* He only has a 0-64 to beat if we ignore Dickie Le Davoir
* Big drop in class he should manage it

Selection

THE TICHBORNE 7/2




L i n g f i e l d 5.05

* This is division 2 of the 4.30pm handicap.
* I couldn't fit in a preview as I wasted time on the 4.30
* GOLDEN COMPASS didnt come out well though
* COURTLAND AVENUE also fell short
* Both have 3 runs this season
* Neither were safe enough doing that
* Every other horse had more than that
* BALTI´S SISTER doesnt offer enough as a 3yo filly
* JUSTBOOKIES DOTNET - Absent too long as a 3yo
* WILTSHIRE LIFE has the same problem
* TIGER CUB - Mystery horse but statistically wrong
* I would look elsewhere and ignore the above
* Unoriginal guess is DIAMOND VINE 4/1




K e m p t o n 6.50

4/1 Plum Bay, 5/1 Arabic, 7/1 Dana´s Present
7/1 Queen Cassiopeia, 9/1 Rogue Reporter
9/1 Twenty One Choice, 12/1 Bada Bing, 12/1 Goodie Goodie
14/1 First Voice, 14/1 Wyndham Wave, 16/1 Inniscastle Boy
20/1 Hill Of Dreams, 20/1 Rode Two Destiny.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* PLUM BAY - I failed her as a filly from 6f
* DANA´S PRESENT - Also up in trip he is unsafe
* I wanted another run this season and more backclass
* TWENTY ONE CHOICE - 1 run this year isnt enough
* I wanted to take these 3 on but its wide open
* ARABIC - Positive profile and looks my best option



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