No Selection Today

No Mention Today





T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

It has been a poor week so far. Not so bothered about a
losing bet but the messages have underperformed during
this week and that bothers me a lot more. Its time to be
careful now. The Waters are Choppy. Todays cards are
dangerous. It's a day to back off and shorten a message.


The plan has to be to turn a poor week into a good one
and we have two days to do that. I know I have at least
one bet tomorrow at a decent price. That would achieve
this goal and I am going to leave it till Saturday to have
a bet and to turn the week around. I have a strong view
in the Silver Bowl tomorrow and a very persuasive case.


In terms of today I am backing off. The message is not
much more than a short observational message. I had 4
races but after losing one bet in the 5.30pm there's now
only 3 previews in todays message. All standard or solid
bottom of the message previews. None will win awards.
I'm backing off today to get me a better chance Saturday.


Goodwood 4.20 - PARISIAN PYRAMID 9/4

Goodwood 2.35 - WELEASE BWIAN 11/4

I did like these today but not enough to stake. I thought
the bet was to have win bets and an each way double. It
was not a bet I considered good enough to go with. The
price on Parisian Pyramid is only 9/4 and he has an all
too obvious look to him. Welease Bwain was a weaker
choice and whilst I like the bet it is not safe enough.

There are a couple of horses that caught my eye today
elsewhere. I haven't previewed the races. Neither have
safe profiles but both are very well handicapped and do
have serious backclass. Both are being nibbled as well so
I would argue this pair are quite interesting in their races.

Yarmouth 3.20 - BIG BAY 7/2

Catterick 8.35 - YAHRAB 7/1

Interesting BIG BAY has been running on sand off 72
and now has his first race on Grass this year and has a
plating rating of just 55. That makes him thrown in at
these weights. You can argue he is best on Sand. That's
probably true but he has won on Grass before. Having a
64 day absence means I can't match him statistically.

YAHRAB is another with considerable backclass and
he has just won a 0-80 after an absence and today has
only got a 0-70 to beat. Its not certain he will progress
from that last run. It's hard to know but I did like much
about his profile in terms of class backclass and ratings


I also saw that old foe GEORGEBERNARDSHAW was
running at Musselburgh tonight in the 6.45pm. I have
crossed swords with him several times earlier this year.
He owes me for sure. I have only a mild interest with
fingers burnt before but I felt on paper he had a serious
chance and I notice his 3 career wins have all come on
a right handed track like todays. Sod's Laws he will win.


These are all no more than "Observations" on a day I
have backed off from. I think I have the right bet on
Saturday that can turn the week around. No Bets today
and I will leave this up to you. I'm having a days break
and dont intend to have any bets before Tomorrow.






S t r o n g e s t S t a t i s t i c T o d a y


H a y d o c k 2.20

Have to regroup here after yesterday we witnessed a
4 year old do something no others have done. Going
with a bland Draw stat. The 1st and 3rd favourite are
affected by this as they may be badly drawn in the race.

* There were 9 handicaps here since 2011
* Thats 9 handicaps with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5 were 0-39
* Winners were drawn 10 15 13 8 8 6 6 14 8
* Since 2005 I see 14 handicaps with 12 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 0-33 record
* Fennell Bay the favourite is drawn 1
* Scrupal the 3rd favourite is drawn 3


T h u r s d a y 's R e v i e w

I had high hopes for yesterdays message notwithstanding
two below par efforts so far this week. I was dissapointed
with a black thursday message. I wasn't so bothered about
the bet LUCANIN losing. If I had chosen another then it
would still have been a loser and on the account we have
a good cushion and there will always be losers between all
big priced winners. It was the two big Negatives winning
that turned it sour for me. I fancied KINGS BAYONET
at Wetherby. I thought I had dodged a banana skin when
he lost as I turned down the each way double but I wanted
him to win and was dissapointed when Well Sharp a horse
I had as a negative won. Not looking for excuses I like to
understand why stats fail. I think in this case that whilst
the record of unraced 4 year olds was poor we can argue
that very few were £250k recruits that had a group class
run and owned and trained by powerful connections and
perhaps that wasn't too much of a surprise. Them with
us betting Lucanin I took on TRADE COMMISSIONER
in the same race. I hated his profile and it stung when he
won. I suppose you can argue that if our horse failed we
had very little else on our side to rescue us. I suspect the reason was that the race was considerably slower than all other races at Sandown and they went an early crawl and
it ended up in a sprint finish. That may have played into
his hands. No excuses there. I dont even know if thats a
good explanation for what happened but it was definately
a false pace and turned into a sprint and that may be the
reason he won. Overall though it was a pretty black day.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S



H a y d o c k 2.20

This is a 10f handicap. I wanted to oppose the favourite
FENNEL BAY mainly because of the draw. The problem
is that when looking for alternatives there are hardly any
that can be predicted with any degree of accuracy.

* There were 9 handicaps here since 2011
* Thats 9 handicaps with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5 were 0-39
* Winners were drawn 10 15 13 8 8 6 6 14 8
* Since 2005 there were 14 handicaps here with 12 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 0-33 record

The draw bias says avoid low draws. FENNEL BAY has
Stall 1 and is rejected. So to are FISHER and SCRUPUL
alongisde outsider Abdul Malik. I considered several of
these without getting a match. INSTRUMENTALIST
is a neutral profile from a Conditions race. Neither of
ROMANTIC or SAFFA HILL did enough last time out.
I think this may go to a lightly raced seasonal debutant.
I see NEVER PERFECT and WATT BRODERICK as
solid options with WATHEEQ just given the verdict.


G o o d w o o d 2.35

11/4 Welease Bwian, 9/2 Hannibal Hayes, Hey Fiddle Fiddle
6/1 Blanc De Chine, 6/1 Bookiesindexdotnet
13/2 Ring For Baileys, 8/1 Christopher Chua
20/1 Le King Beau.

This is a 3yo handicap over 5f. I remember back in March
we were on BOOKIESINDEXDOTNET when he won. We have not seen him in the last 58 days. In all similar races I
found a poor record of horses with absences when coming
through the handicap system. Horses from handicaps when
having 4 or more starts and 7 weeks absence were 1-89 and
that puts me off BOOKIESINDEXDOTNET. For a similar
reason I am against HEY FIDDLE FIDDLE absent further.
I was happy to oppose BLANC DE CHINE as a filly with a
long absence. HANNIBAL HAYES drops from a 6f maiden
but he was beaten further than any horses doing just that so feels unsafe. RING FOR BAILEYS has a chance but needed
a more recent run. The best profile is WELEASE BWIAN
and that is mainly because he has the recent run. His stable have won this before but are a dangerous yard to read. I do wish he had more backclass but the only horses that had it had longer breaks and I think he is just the best option.

Selection

WELEASE BWIAN




G o o d w o o d 4.20

11/4 Parisian Pyramid, 7/2 Ahtoug, 11/2 Chilli Green
6/1 Fanrouge, 15/2 Noble Citizen, 9/1 Triple Aspect
12/1 Fathsta, 12/1 Oneladyowner, 12/1 Piazza San Pietro.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-105 rated horses
* There are 92 similar Class 2 handicaps at this time of year
* FATHSTA was well beaten last time over 7f
* No horse his aged or older overcame that
* Most of a younger age had more runs that season
* PIAZZA SAN PIETRO is exposed and absent 264 days
* Comes back with a career high mark in a higher class
* I think he is a very unlikely winner
* FANROUGE Not for me as a 3yo filly
* She isnt like any of the rare 3yo winners of these races
* TRIPLE ASPECT falls short for me
* Just 1 run this year and 44 days absence
* There are fitter horses here
* CHILLI GREEN - Not many exposed 5yo mares win
* She has a handicap mark she hasn't won from yet
* She hasnt won within 2 grades of this class before
* My stats say she will run well but just not well enough
* ONELADYOWNER - Has a bit too much to prove
* There are fitter horses and may need more runs
* NOBLE CITIZEN ran well yesterday over 7f
* Horses running well the day before are always interesting
* I cant match him to a winner but not that many tried
* I see him as Unsafe but wouldnt be surprised if he won
* AHTOUG has 1 run this season and 83 days off
* Thats longer than every horse that won like him
* It's not a safe profile but I cant rule him out
* If my selection fails I expect him to take advantage
* PARISIAN PYRAMID looked the obvious contender
* He won this in 2010 and was also 3rd in 2011
* He has a solid profile that has no obvious weakness

Selection

PARISIAN PYRAMID

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