No Selection Today


T o d a y 's M e n t i o n

L i n g f i e l d 2.30

BERT THE ALERT 6/4

Win Bet


We have Wolverhampton and Lingfield today my weaker
All weather tracks. I have done a few races at Lingfield to
provide the spine of the message. There are options there
but it's not easy. I thought Wolverhampton turned a little
sour later on and I don't fancy some of the later races and
I have just done the first two Apprentice Handicaps there.

Its even worse over on the National Hunt side. Huntingdon
and Musselburgh must be two of my worst tracks and there
is not much I like at either place. I do not like the message at all. I have felt sharp all week and have been happy with my form and my choices but everything is telling me it is a day to back away from and to regroup instead tomorrow.


No Negatives Today

No Match Bets Today

Non Runners have spoilt both options



S t r o n g e s t S t a t i s t i c T o d a y

Non- runners have savaged this part of the message.
I had a great positive for Kai Mook (3.30) and the
best negative was Aqua Ardens (2.30) but both have
pulled out this morning spoiling all my best options.
I could choose Hinton Admiral who has a bad profile
in the 1pm but its a small field and his chance looks
a lot better than his profile suggests. I could also go
with Lucky Royale in the 2pm another with a weak
profile but he is drifting. In the end I decided that as
both my best stats were with Non runners we should
have a blank day rather than risk my 3rd best option
on the day which seems wrong and a step too far.


T h o u g h t F o r T h e D a y

A £1 Treble on horses starting 1/5 1/4 and 1/3 will
be the same as an Even Money winner. There must
be a very good chance of getting this treble up.

Lingfield 1.30 - Discoverer 1/5
Huntingdon 1.50 - Ericht 1/4
Huntingdon 2.20 - Problema Tic 1/3

If you asked me to bet it or lay it at evens I think
I would rather bet the treble. I dont see any losing.

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S E R V I C E N E W S

I was contacted a couple of weeks ago by a head lad
from the Mark Johnston stable. He asked me to do
some statistics in the past few seasons looking at the
record of their 2 year old runners. I did this task and
thank you again to one of our members who kindly
helped me with the work. They have these now and
seem pleased. I requested that in return they give us
a very strong fancied runner they feel will win and I
was told in a week or two they have something that
they we can back. Always sceptical about this and I
don't have any illusions about stable information so
it will be interesting to see what horse we are given.
I suppose it is a case of watch this space and wait to
see if they are true to their word and send a winner.


T H U R S D A Y 'S R E V I E W

The message was a bit rushed yesterday one of the
reasons I didn't have a selection. We had a mention
on the day on MY BEST MAN each way. He ran a
nice race finishing well for second. Not the best ride
you will see as he came from off the pace but he did
at least place and saved our money. He was backed
from 7/1 to 7/2 so it will depend on what price you
took. I feel he was a good bet as his fitness helped
him and he never looked like losing money so that
wasn't a bad effort of risk for the money. Pleased
the Strongest Statistic worked out again but I have
to argue the Match bet was unlucky. Our horse fell
when in front and going well and that handed it to
the negative. It took another horse falling after to
allow him to win and that tells me we would surely
have won that match bet without falling but that's
the National Hunt game. The negative won a bad
decision really and that was dissapointing. There
were a few bad decisons yesterday. The main bet
did well but it didn't cover up a below par message
where there were too many mistakes and it felt a
message that was rushed and never settled down.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


M u s s e l b u r g h 12.40

This is a Maiden Hurdle. Having run several profiles
in this race I would argue that LEMON DROP RED
does come out best. He looks the statistical pick in
the race as he is more orthadox than his rivals. If I
was betting here I would see some serious threats to
him even if not as good statistically. If I had a bet
I would go down the split stake route. I wont have
a bet but MAKBULLET could be a place bet and a
win bet on LEMON DROP RED. Poor prices but
its reasonably safe and I dont feel a win bet on the
favourite is safe enough. Thats how I'd play it.


H u n t i n g d o n 12.50

Decided this race was some way above my pay grade
and ducked the race. I have probably got this wrong
but I don't like the 3 market leaders. Hohlethelonely
won last time but penalised and up in trip I cant find
a winner like him. Clever Dick doesnt appeal beaten
miles in a shorter Novice Hurdle last time. I couldnt
match Goat Castle either up in distance. All three
look weak to me but I have to wonder what I have
on my side and I suspect its best to leave this alone.




L i n g f i e l d 1.00

7/4 Hinton Admiral, 5/2 Stevie Gee, 10/1 Sienna Blue
14/1 Eastern Gift, 14/1 The Which Doctor 16/1 Alhaban
20/1 Divine Rule, 100/1 Whats Your Story.

This is a 7f Selling race. It's quite an interesting fight
here between statistics and ratings. If you look at the
ratings of these and the weights HINTON ADMIRAL
easily comes out as the best horse in the race. He has
to come from a 5f race to a 7f race though and that's
a big problem statistically. No horses have done it in
similar races. A Form and ratings student would have
to consider HINTON ADMIRAL as the bet yet those
looking statistically would see him as vulnerable. For
me I would give him a Far better chance than I could
do given his profile but it's still a legitimate risk and
we should explore other options. SIENNA BLUE is
out as a 4yo filly with 1 run since last September. I
think WHATS YOUR STORY is too inexperienced.
I do not want ALHABAN because he's exposed with
his 48 day absence and exposed horses rarely won if
having that sort of absence. THE WHICH DOCTOR
drops down to 10f to 7f and no horses managed the
3f drop in trip like him. DIVINE RULE comes out
really badly at the weights and has little backclass in
reserve. EASTERN GIFT is also badly weighted and
that undermines what is an acceptable profile.

* HINTON ADMIRAL has to be shortlisted on ability
* My angles say I should go with STEVIE GEE instead
* Personally I am not convinced its that simple
* STEVIE GEE - Decent profile and should go well
* I am tempted by the exacta with both finishing 1-2
* Final selection is STEVIE GEE in line with the stats


H u n t i n g d o n 1.20

No interesting angles in this 20f Handicap Chase and
it's not worth a preview. FREE SPEECH is respected
but I just prefer SAMBELUCKY getting 16lbs weight
when two years younger and he's my suggestion here.


L i n g f i e l d 1.30

4/7 Discoverer, 9/2 Beggar´s Banquet, 8/1 Ashdown Lad
10/1 Breeze On Bye, 12/1 Yajber, 25/1 Norwood Lane
50/1 Lingtren.

I think this 7f maiden should go to DISCOVERER
but his price is too short. I see him much safer than
the unraced Beggar's Banquet, Yajber and Lingtren.
BREEZE ON BYE and ASHDOWN LAD have lots
of improvement to make and I would think that it
is far more likely that DISCOVERER is too strong.
I wouldn't bet him at the price though. Looking at
what may come second I'd try ASHDOWN LAD a
horse thats had a reasonable first run. I can see him
offering most resistance and would be my choice to
come second or select in any without the favourite
markets. He may be 2nd but DISCOVER should win.


L i n g f i e l d 2.00

7/4 Lucky Royale, 7/2 Russian Ice, 5/1 Shared Moment
8/1 Abigails Angel, 8/1 Sweet Secret, 10/1 Favorite Girl
16/1 Ryedale Dancer, 20/1 Renoir´s Lady, Athenian Garden.

This is a fillies handicap over 7f. I looked at every
similar race at this time of year. FAVORITE GIRL
has been off too long and is too inexperienced for
me. Stats in fillies races show no winners had her
profile and Henry Cecil has just got rid of her and
cheaply. She's wrong and RENOIR´S LADY is also
rejected with an absence. RYEDALE DANCER has
just one poor run since last September and does not
offer me enough. ATHENIAN GARDEN has 1 run
since April and lacks fitness. RUSSIAN ICE doesn't
come out well from a 3yo handicap and he needs a
bit of improvement to win this. LUCKY ROYALE
has a problem to overcome. I see some weakness in
her profile. I looked at all 4 year olds like her that
came from 7f races. There were 5 winners but none
of these won last time out. Most of these had 9 or
more runs. Only one managed to win with under 9
runs and LUCKY ROYALE only has 6 runs. She's
just won a 0-58 Handicap and this is a lot harder
and up in distance I am wary about her. I'd respect
SWEET SECRET but she's a classic example of a
filly that needs either a more recent race or more
backclass before I can match her to any winners.
I see SHARED MOMENT as unsafe without being
a negative but as an exposed horse his age I'd want
a bit more backclass. ABIGAILS ANGEL has just
about the safest profile and has to be shortlisted.

C o n c l u s i o n


ABIGAILS ANGEL 10/1 Each Way

I want to oppose the 7/4 favourite as I find some
weakness in his profile and the frame of the race
allows an each way alternative. Its a tight choice
between a few but ABIGAILS ANGEL just shaded
it on her profile and I will go with her each way.




L i n g f i e l d 2.30

2/1 Aqua Ardens, 7/2 Bert The Alert, 9/2 Broughton Sands
6/1 Roanstar, 8/1 Mutanaker, 16/1 Chhota Naa
20/1 Las Hilanderas, 25/1 Vehement.

* This is a 12f maiden for horses aged 4-5-6
* AQUA ARDENS comes from a 7f Maiden
* I looked at every 12f maiden ever run before
* Thats any time of year for horses aged 3 or more
* I looked at horses aged 4 or older coming from 7f
* There was a miserable 1-120 record (Robandela)
* None of these ran more than once before
* None of these had raced in the last year
* AQUA ARDENS from 7f looks shaky to me
* He is trying to do something no horse has done before
* The problem is finding a decent alternative
* LAS HILANDERAS didnt do enough yesterday
* Several are hard to read from National Hunt races
* BERT THE ALERT has just beaten BROUGHTON SANDS
* They were 3rd and 4th in the same maiden last time
* BERT THE ALERT was 4/1 and Broughton Sands 50/1
* I'd expect him to confirm the form
* With a recent run I'd see him as the safest choice

Selection - BERT THE ALERT



L i n g f i e l d 3.30

4/1 Regal Rave, 7/1 Avon Supreme, 8/1 Daniel Thomas
8/1 Equine Science, 8/1 Kai Mook, 10/1 El Libertador
10/1 Poppy Golightly, 10/1 Prince Blue, Visions Of Johanna
12/1 Ponte Di Rosa, 14/1 Ossie Ardiles, 33/1 Confide In Me
33/1 Forbidden, 33/1 Gay Gallivanter.

This is a low grade 10f handicap. Wide open race I will
try and narrow down. The worst draws here are stalls 1
and stalls 2. I dont want GAY GALLIVANTER a filly
from a claimer from Stall one. POPPY GOLIGHTLY
doesnt offer me enough from Stall two without a race
in the past fortnight. No 4 year old has been absent as
long as OSSIE ARDILES. I question EQUINE SCIENCE
and CONFIDE IN ME as both are very short of recent
runs having raced once in just several months and I see
them as unfit. PONTE DI ROSA looks inexperienced
for a 4yo filly. EL LIBERTADOR has plenty to prove
well beaten at 12f last time. I doubt that FORBIDDEN
has done enough recently.

S h o r t l i s t

* AVON SUPREME is just about ok statistically
* Unimpressive profile though and not for me
* PRINCE BLUE - Hard to read but shortlistable
* DANIEL THOMAS - Age an issue but 1 winner like him
* REGAL RAVE - 2 similar winners
* His last run was better than it looked

Selection - REGAL RAVE 7/2 Each Way



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 4.10

9/4 Crocodile Bay, 5/2 Michael´s Nook, 7/1 Piccolo Express
15/2 Pulsatilla, 11/1 Drive Home, Shaluca, 16/1 Fortunelini
18/1 Desert Hunter, 20/1 Born To Be Achamp, Regency Art
33/1 Stoneacre Joe Joe, 33/1 Weet In Nerja.

This is an Apprentice Handicap over 7f. There are 25
similar races in January. I am against SHALUCA as she
is a mare with a massive absence. PULSATILLA doesnt
do it for me as a filly from a maiden. Several here have
fitness doubts. BORN TO BE ACHAMP is rejected for
a long absence. DRIVE HOME is also absent too long.
PICCOLO EXPRESS and DESERT HUNTER are both
too exposed for comfort given their absences. I doubt
WEET IN NERJA is fit and STONEACRE JOE JOE's
impossible to fancy. REGENCY ART hasnt show he's
ready to win lately and FORTUNELINI is surely not
safe as a 7yo mare from a maiden. I'm shortlisting 2.

* MICHAEL´S NOOK is in very good hands
* I like him upgraded recently in stable
* There are some statistical doubt though
* He comes up in trip and not many his age did it
* None unexposed like him and his absence hurts
* CROCODILE BAY - Every chance with recent run

Selection

CROCODILE BAY 7/2 + Each Way



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 4.40

5/2 Dashing Eddie, 3/1 Cheers, 6/1 Only Ten Per Cent
6/1 Pytheas, 10/1 Monsieur Pontaven, 12/1 Anjomarba
12/1 Transmit, 14/1 Arrivaderci, 20/1 Kyncraighe
25/1 Odd Ball, 25/1 Valentino Swing.

This is division 2 of the 7f Apprentice Handicap. It
is much harder than the earlier race and feels a great
deal more complicated. ONLY TEN PER CENT has
a weak profile from a 6f maiden. ARRIVADERCI is
out for the same reason and as a filly. ODD BALLs
too inexperienced from 6f. Neither KYNCRAIGHE
or VALENTINO SWING look ready to win. Its not
easy to read TRANSMIT but my gut feeling is he is
best left alone not doing enough last time. We have
two last time out winning 4 year olds here. CHEERS
and DASHING EDDIE both look to follow up wins.
Purely statistically as CHEERS is a filly I should be
opposing her. No fillies won Apprentice races like
this as inexperienced as her and none followed up a
win. I see DASHING EDDIE as safer and although
not brilliant he has enough to shortlist. I can not
match ANJOMARBA to any winner as an exposed
mare. MONSIEUR PONTAVEN can't be ruled out
but he has a worrying lack of backclass for his age.



* PYTHEAS - 1 similar winner and respected
* Needed his last run and has a better jockey today
* DASHING EDDIE - Won yesterday so interesting
* Look at 4 year olds that won over 8f last time
* Those that are unexposed and ran within 4 days
* These had a W W record from just two runners
* DASHING EDDIE looks promising here

S e l e c t i o n

DASHING EDDIE 3/1 Win Bet

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