No Bets Today


Todays Options @ Significant Races

Start of a weather affected week. Incredibly it was the
all weather card at Southwell that was lost first with a
waterlogged course. Ludlow and Kempton survive but
there is every chance tomorrow will have no racing at
all. That probably means I've overcompensated a little
today and done a longer than usual Monday message.

There are 10 previews today. More than ideal and this
includes some that can't be sorted and some that are
dead ends but that's par for the course at this time of
year with many National Hunt horses still having their
seasonal debuts. I've done what I can though and it's
hopefully going to be a good guide to todays cards.

Todays Best Bet

Kempton 3.10

OLD WAY 11/2

Each Way


I have only staked one bet below and thats Old Way
who I think is probably the best bet of the message.
I think he falls short of being a very strong bet but is
worth a modest bet. The rest of it is there to have a
play around with but with very soft ground and with a
sand free day there are limitations to what I can do.


S a t u r d a y 's R e v i e w

I never like sending a Saturday message without a bet
that was unavoidable this week. I knew I had chances
in several races but not one strong clear unambiguous
race to have a bet in. I had 3 options with just the one
winner. It wasn't a great message and frustrated but it
had a few good points. My strongest option didn't race
but I like that most of the strong angles and negatives
worked out well even if that meant choosing the wrong
horse at times. It was a message that recognised its
limitations but it had them and overall it was forgettable.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


K e m p t o n 12.30

7/2 Semi Colon, 4/1 South Stack, 9/2 Thoresby
7/1 Loose Chips, 7/1 Umberto D´olivate, 8/1 Hired Hand
10/1 Ski Sunday, 16/1 Den Of Iniquity, 16/1 Duaiseoir
25/1 Kasban, 33/1 Marble Walk.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* SOUTH STACK comes from a Novice Handicap
* Many winners did most lighter raced with shorter absences
* I looked at those with 9 or more NH runs
* None of these were absent more than a month
* SOUTH STACK absent 47 days has that agaisnt him
* SOUTH STACK could be a good saver or place bet
* THORESBY comes from a Novice Handicap
* He is quite exposed to be doing that
* Looked horses from Novice Handicaps over 2m 6f
* Those that had 13 or more runs were 0-36
* THORESBY with 18 runs looks too exposed
* KASBAN is wrong from a Novice Hurdle first time out
* None did that as old or as well raced s he is
* UMBERTO D´OLIVATE is unsafe as a 4yo
* Especially with a break and no runs in England
* DEN OF INIQUITY is 11 and very few win at his age
* I wanted a better last run and he isnt safe
* MARBLE WALK - I cant make a case for him
* DUAISEOIR doesnt appeal from a 2m race
* He isnt running well either and may not stay
* SKI SUNDAYis down from 3m
* I looked at similar horses with 13 + runs
* Those with 1-2 runs that season
* There were winners but none has his weight
* None were aged 7 either and he is unsafe
* SEMI COLON is a 6yo mare with 1 run this year
* Several 6yo mares won most seasonal debutants
* Those with 1 run this season were 0-36
* I looked at all mares that won with 1 run this season
* None were beaten as far as she was last time
* SEMI COLON doesnt come out as well as I'd want
* HIRED HAND - Impossible to read with long absence
* There are lightly raced 6yo's winning like him
* I'd have liked less weight but cant rule him out

Selection

* LOOSE CHIPS is slowly improving
* Done enough for a the shortlist without being strong
* SOUTH STACK - I see him as the best saver or place bet
* I will make him an Optional Saver win or place
* LOOSE CHIPS 5/1 is the selection



L u d l o w 12.40

4/5 Zarzal, 5/1 No Likey, 6/1 Anton Dolin, 6/1 Calaf
8/1 Nomadic Dreamer, 10/1 Chiquilline, 16/1 Walter De La Mare 20/1 Engai, 50/1 Harrys Yer Man, 50/1 Monzino, 100/1 Port Hill.

This is a maiden hurdle. ZARZAL will probably win but he
doesnt appeal enough to bet him at odds on. The problem
for me is he is unproven on the ground and he wasn't the
best horse in the race on the flat. ANTON DOLIN was the
better flat horse but he also has ground issues and hasnt
yet jumped a hurdle in public. If I was betting here I would split my stake. ZARZAL isnt safe enough for a win single and I would have at least half my stake on something else either as a place bet or a win bet. I'd aim to recoup most of my stake back if ZARZAL wins but have a second bet in the race. Best guess would be a place bet on CALAF.



K e m p t o n 1.00

A race to watch as SNAKE EYES is long odds on and It
is hard to oppose him given his trainers great record in the race and his reputation. Statistically there were 6 winners of similar races aged 4 from bumpers with 1 race so there isnt a statistical case against him so no plans to oppose.



L u d l o w 1.10

9/4 Carrigmorna King, 9/4 Dare Me, 7/1 Dream Risk
8/1 Heavenstown, 8/1 Rudigreen, 8/1 Victor Echo
12/1 Miss Kalifa, 33/1 Blazing Desert, 50/1 Dark Oasis
200/1 The Last Bridge.

This is a 2m 4f Beginners Chase. I suspect one of the two
main runners will win. VICTOR ECHO doesnt come out as
well as I'd want from a recent novice hurdle. DREAM RISK
is a mare and unlike any winners. Not easy to sort this as
both CARRIGMORNA KING and DARE ME have got good
profiles and there are several winners like them in similar
races. If I had to split them then despite thinking a Phillip Hobbs horse with a run this year could well be safer than betting a Venetia Williams seasonal debutant my angles suggest thats not neccesarily the case. DARE ME has a good profile and just shaded it. I found more winners like him than CARRIGMORNA KING. I looked at how all the
Venetia Williams horses fared in Novices and Beginners
Chases this season. Those that were seasonal debutants
from Hurdle races last year that started under 12/1 had a
4-9 record so plenty of encouragement there. I am open
minded. I like them both but if we do decide that profiles
are the way to go here then DARE ME should be the bet.

Selection

DARE ME 2/1



K e m p t o n 1.30

13/8 Spirit River, 3/1 The Druids Nephew, 7/2 So Fine
6/1 Barlow, 14/1 Lemon´s Gent, 20/1 Firm Order
25/1 Worth The Stretch.

* SPIRIT RIVER is a fascinating runner
* Won the Coral Cup in 2010 but flopped over fences 2011
* His 2012 season was limited to two runs
* His 2010 Coral Cup win was remarkable
* What he did as a 5yo that year was statistially indecent
* It wouldnt surprise me if that race broke him
* Ignore his 2012 runs as he had genuine excuses
* Easily the best horse over hurdles there are 2 issues
* Will he stay and can we trust him over fences ?
* THE DRUIDS NEPHEW is easy to read as a 5yo
* One run this year in a Chase over 19f
* I found 4 winners with that profile
* One was close enough to say he is statistically fine
* THE DRUIDS NEPHEW brings less risk
* SO FINE is hard to read
* Looked at horses with 1 run this year over hurdles
* The only ones well beaten last time like him were older
* I wouldnt rule him out but we dont know how he can jump
* Statistically at best he is a neutral and unproven
* BARLOW has the same problems
* Close decision with Spirit River capable but risky
* THE DRUIDS NEPHEW is the safer choice

Selection

THE DRUIDS NEPHEW 6/4




L u d l o w 1.45

This is a messy Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f. I dont have a
strong view as there isn't much evidence to go on. I find
al the fancied runners have acceptable profiles and may
improve. I can basically only guess here. Given the frame
of the race RETURN SPRING e/w is that lucky dip guess.




K e m p t o n 2.05

3/1 Kells Belle, 7/2 Knockfierna, 11/2 Miss Milborne
7/1 Baby Shine, 8/1 Kaffie, 9/1 Alpine Breeze
16/1 Wild Rhubarb, 33/1 Annimation.

This is a 3m Listed race Mares Hurdle and a rare one and
we only have 4 similar races run so statistically I feel blind here. I know all 4 winners were aged 5 or 6 and it seems a good as any place to start. KNOCKFIERNA is a 7 year old. I am going to oppose KNOCKFIERNA. No idea if thats the right thing to do but she is older than all past winners and I dont see coming from Chasing a positive. She hasn't run over hurdles since May 2011 so she has to prove she still has the speed or indeed the temprement as she has been showing signs of getting sour and twice ran out recently. I am also against ALPINE BREEZE as shes been chasing. WILD RHUBARB lacks the backclass and well beaten in a Class 4 handicap last time really does not look enough.

* KAFFIE - Do I want a 7yo seasonal debutant ?

* KELLS BELLE - Has a Listed race penalty first time
* None have yet tried that so cant rule her out on that

* MISS MILBORNE - Up in class but profile feels ok

* BABY SHINE - 2 winners ran this year over under 18f
* Last years winner came from the same race as well


Selection

BABY SHINE 7/1 Win Bet

KELLS BELLE 5/2 Saver

I want to save on KELLS BELLE. She is rated148. Now
with Alasi a non runner she has a fair ratings here so its
sensible to do that. BABY SHINE is the selection only
because of matching last years winner and being a far
bigger price. I like both but Its still not an easy race.




K e m p t o n 2.35

3/1 Niceonefrankie, 4/1 Joker Choker, 5/1 Bally Legend
5/1 Twirling Magnet, 6/1 Current Event, 6/1 Turbo Du Ranch

This is a Handicap Chase over 2m 4f. Not my kind of race and a very unpleasnt frame to the race. NICEONEFRANKIE fell on his seasonal debut 16 days ago at the first fence so effectively is without a race in 8 months having topweight. No negative but I'm taking him on. I wanted more from JOKER CHOKER on his first run this year and feel the same about TWIRLING MAGNET. I dont have a problem with CURRENT EVENT so I respect him. I just prefer TURBO DU RANCH and BALLY LEGEND both are novice chasers up in trip. Wasn't unhappy with their profiles so I feel they are as good as any in a race I cant really sort out.

Selection

BALLY LEGEND 7/2 Win Bet




L u d l o w 2.50

6/4 Inamalabalusaloon, 4/1 Numbercruncher
6/1 Gorgehous Lliege, 6/1 The Rockies, 8/1 Fidelor
10/1 Derwen Pryde, 16/1 Witness That.

This is a 3m Novice Handicap Chase. There was one of these
races on Saturday. It was a small field and I opposed horses aged 5 that came from either 2m 4f or shorter or that came via Novice or Beginners Chases. Theer were 3 fancied horses that did that on Saturday in a small field and they all got beaten. It looked a good statistic and today THE ROCKIES fails that too as a 5yo from a 2m 4f Beginners Chase. He looks wrong to me. I'm opposing WITNESS THAT from a 2m Novice Chase. I think DERWEN PRYDE has too much to do based on her last race and as a mare with one well beaten run this year she is a long
way away from a winning profile. GORGEHOUS LLIEGE has a
similar problem well beaten in a Novice Chase and going up to 3m my angles see weakness. FIDELOR is unlikely to improve enough from his first run this year to take this from Topweight. NUMBERCRUNCHER and INAMALABALUSALOON may be
the ones to fight this out. With INAMALABALUSALOON it is
clear he is well treated but also hard to judge without a race in a few months. NUMBERCRUNCHER looks the danger but
I just prefer INAMALABALUSALOON and think he may win.

Selection

INAMALABALUSALOON 7/4



K e m p t o n 3.10

3/1 Arkose, 9/2 Greenlaw, 5/1 Iron Chancellor, 5/1 Simply Ben 7/1 Old Way, 8/1 Mr Muddle, 10/1 Moorland Sunset, 16/1 Tarvini 20/1 Pie At Midnight.

* This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle
* IRON CHANCELLOR - Not happy with his profile
* Too exposed from a Novice Hurdle and topweight
* The track could be an issue as well
* GREENLAW - Not convinced up in distance
* TARVINI - Too much to prove
* PIE AT MIDNIGHT - Not enough positives
* ARKOSE - Not a negative but enough to do
* Cant find an 8yo following up a win with his weight

Shortlist

* SIMPLY BEN - Promising profile. Shortlistable
* With the longest absence it may not be today
* MOORLAND SUNSET - Not out of it if he stays
* MR MUDDLE- Small chance
* OLD WAY - Decent enough profile
* Could be the each way value

Selection

£5 Each Way OLD WAY 11/2

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