No Selection Today

1 Mention Today

Redcar 5.30

HAB REEH 7/2

Win Bet



Much quieter message today that wont hit the heights
of yesterdays. It's an artificial bank holiday today and
can't make it's mind up whether it is one or whether it
is just an ordinary Tuesday. I've ignored plenty of 3yo
handicaps and all big fields. This is the 9th message in
a row and you can tell. Its showing signs of weariness.


T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

I had a flash of madness earlier and thought I should
go with TRANSIT at 25/1 in the Redcar 3.10. I feel
the race is between WHITBY JET and TRANSIT so
It did cross my mind to do that despite a claimer and
an appaling record. Now I have said that I am going
to have to have a small bet as an insurance but think
he may be a bit too ambitious to stake as todays bet.


Leicester 5.25

I am half tempted by MOTHER JONES here as the
one that stands out. Not entirely clear how to play
this race. I have Love You Louis 12/1 as the second
best profile but felt Cruisetothelimit was the correct
saver to have. I didn't want to bet all three. There's
a good Dutching bet here somewhere. Time has run
out to try and fit three pegs into two holes but it is
a race that I felt was sortable. I dont want to put a
very messily staked bet out but I plan to have two
savers Love You Louis 10/1 + Cruisetothelimit 4/1
with the main bet on MOTHER JONES who I like.


Redcar 5.30


HAB REEH 7/2

I think he has an ideal profile facing many who dont.
I think he can win it. Looks a very well handicapped
horse. You can only fancy him on a couple of races
he has had and they were on the Sand so there are a
few doubts but he stands out to me. Its probably not
a good sigh that he is up for Sale at the moment but
everything is in the context of his opposition and I
had him as the clear choice despite obvious doubts.
The majority of his main dangers are fillies that are
facing long absences so the race is winable for him.

I am going win only. Thats madness given the weak
profiles against him and given he has the best jockey
and ought to make the running. I just feel he will be
one of those that win or dissapoint. Decision made.
I can see him drifting as well later so 7/2 is minimum.




S t r o n g e s t S t a t i s t i c T o d a y

R e d c a r 5.20

* This is a low Grade 6f handicap
* UNDER PAR is a 4yo filly
* She comes from a 5f race with just 4 career starts
* May and June have 484 Handicaps at 6f in Class 5-6-7
* I looked at 4 year olds coming from 5f races
* Those with under 5 career starts were 0-65
* I looked at Fillies aged 4 coming from 5f
* There were 10 Fillies aged 4 winning from 5f
* None of these had under 8 career starts
* UNDER PAR looks undercooked to me


R e v i e w of Y e s t e r d a y

Bank Holidays can be a bit anticlimatic but yesterdays
was as good as I can remember. MIGHTY CLARETS
was the most important part of it and he won beating
what is probably a superior horse through fitness and
very pleased to get back to a winner. He was a Tiddler
but he breaks a short losing run and pays for that and
does wonders for confidence and momentum. Recent
days have seen the bottom of the message performing
better than the top. That changed yesterday with the
main bet winning and the other options including two
winners. I suggested MR SNOOZY and FLASHMAN
as each way bets in the same race. I'm not sure if the
price I put down was ontainable but they finished 1st
and 2nd at 10/1 and 9/1 and there was a serious profit
for anyone that played. SIR BRUNO got beaten after
but the final option MADRASA won easily at 5/1 to
improve on a high class message. It did not end there
as the bottom of the message had Choc'A'Moca 9/2
and Tea Cup 5/4 winning with Saint Hillary winning
as well at 14/1 in a Split Stake bet.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S



R e d c a r 2.05

* This is a 2yo fillies maiden over 6f
* POETIC PRINCESS looks a bit too exposed
* AYASHA- Wouldnt be my first choice first time out
* PROJECTISLE - Unraced but respect her
* Her trainer has a 3-8 record in this race and 2 were unraced
* FADEINTOINFINITY - Most likely winner
* No selection



L e i c e s t e r 2.10

3/1 Ighraa, 100/30 Steer By The Stars
4/1 Henrietta Rose, 8/1 Hot Secret, 10/1 Constant Dream
10/1 Shrimpton, 14/1 Jollification, 14/1 Vestibule
16/1 Cut No Ice, 20/1 Lincolnrose, 20/1 Mary´s Daughter
50/1 Flirtinaskirt, 50/1 Our Sweet Art.

This is a 2yo maiden for fillies. I agree with the Racing Post that an experienced horse should take this but the previous 4 winners were all unraced so we can't be sure. Its guesswork at best. Look at the 7 races here with 10 or more runners in them since 2001. The winners are drawn 10 7 4 11 14 9 10 and with stalls 1-2-3 only 0-21 STEER BY THE STARS is going to have to work from Stall two. Both HOT SECRET and CONSTANT DREAM have to go unraced from similar low draws. VESTIBULE and IGHRAA must be considered.
I don't know what to do here. STEER BY THE STARS is
quite attractive despite the Draw. I may be making far too
much of that draw bias. Perhaps STEER BY THE STARS
is the one but split stakes with VESTIBULE to place with
a good draw and three runs the last her best and that came
on a Grade 1 track. She may just have enough to be placed.



R e d c a r 2.35

This is a 7f seller. I think its dangerous and I'm bailing out. I am a long way from convinced MAIN BEACH is right in
this seller. Not convinced he is fit or ready enough to win. I hate him up in trip with two runs this year. That said He is easily the best horse at the weights with at least 12lbs in hand and I do not see any safe profile to oppose him with. Therefore its a dead end race for me. If I was betting then it would have to be a split stake bet to protect the stakes. Try MAIN BEACH to win and DUNSEVERICK to place.


R e d c a r 3.10

4/1 Whitby Jet, 6/1 Al Furat, 6/1 Buzz Law
7/1 Come Here Yew, 7/1 I Confess, 7/1 Sinatramania
10/1 Highlife Dancer, 10/1 Tartan Gunna
16/1 Count Bertoni, 16/1 Goodness, 20/1 Transmit.

* This is a 0-75 handicap over 9f
* COUNT BERTONI - doesnt offer enough
* BUZZ LAW is a 4yo seasonal debutant
* I felt he was a bit too exposed for comfort
* AL FURAT is a 4yo from a 12f race
* The only 4yo's doing that had 2 + runs that season
* Those with 1 run like AL FURAT were 0-40
* GOODNESS is wrong coming from 14f
* I CONFESS - Not a good profile from 7f
* Not with an absence and a 7 year old
* COME HERE YEW is a 4yo from a maiden
* He needs more runs this year having 9 already
* SINATRAMANIA is 5 with 1 run this season
* Not a profile I like - but I did find 2 winners
* Both however were horses high in the weights
* SINATRAMANIA isn't and I have my doubts
* Stats tell me to consider him but I'm cold on her
* TARTAN GUNNA - Exposed with a long absence
* Not my first choice but one winner like him
* HIGHLIFE DANCER was well beaten last time
* He has a shaky profile and no horse was like him
* Person ally I would Upgrade him
* Ignore his last run ridden by an inexperienced girl

S h o r t l i s t

* TRANSMIT - No reason why he cant win
* The winners like him all had more weight
* Just makes me question his class

* WHITBY JET is 4 and comes from 8f
* He has Class 4 form and 1-2-3 runs this season
* Comfortably able to shortlist him

Selection

WHITBY JET 4/1

TRANSMIT 25/1

Back both to win the same amount




L e i c e s t e r 3.15

This 3yo handicap is far too difficult. A massive field that would take a complete guess. The draw doesnt help either. Just commenting about favourite FLEXIBLE FLYER here.

* I looked at horses that won 3yo maidens last time
* Those that did that with an absence of more than 7 weeks
* I found a 0-24 record from these types
* Many were not too fancied to hard to judge it as a stat
* It would certainly put me off the favourite
* I wouldnt lay him as I dont know what I have on side
* Unless he was laid at a short price in running
* My angles says all 24 like him lose so I'd ignore him



R e d c a r 3.45

9/4 Bosun Breese, 9/2 Bedloe´s Island, 8/1 Mercers Row
8/1 The Nifty Fox, 10/1 Cool In The Shade, 12/1 Eland Ally
12/1 Select Committee, 12/1 Swendab, 14/1 Beauty Pageant
14/1 Tabaret, 16/1 Lady Royale, 25/1 Secret Venue
33/1 Quaroma, 50/1 Nickel Silver.

This is a 5f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. Not a detailed
preview. I looked at all similar races. I am failing all horses having their first runs of the season. None of these looked right. I have knocked out the vulnerable and the no hopers. Draw-Wise I'd be most worried about those very high draws.

* MERCERS ROW - Borderline profile. Not first choice
* THE NIFTY FOX - Good enough to shortlist despite draw
* BOSUN BREESE - Has to be shortlisted
* BEDLOE´S ISLAND is worth considering as well
* No selection. I feel the betting is about right.



L e i c e s t e r 3.50

4/1 Outlaw Torn, 9/2 Khazium, 5/1 Compton Target
11/2 Pius Parker, 6/1 Miss Purity Pinker, 13/2 Marinus
7/1 Joy To The World, 16/1 Enthrall, 25/1 Hot Potato
40/1 High Five Prince.

This is a 3yo claiming race over 7f. Extremely complicated
race and no help with the draw. I dont think I can do much
with this. I had KHAZIUM down as a horse to avoid with 1
run this year and his absence. MISS PURITY PINKER may
be best avoided with a combination of issues. I am opposing
MARINUS as he is up in trip without backclass or a recent
race and I wanted both. JOY TO THE WORLD just falls a
bit short. I dont have any more I dare oppose. I Shortlist 3.

Shortlist

* COMPTON TARGET - Just gets through
* OUTLAW TORN - The recent run is a help
* PIUS PARKER - I have found a similar winner

Selection

PIUS PARKER 7/1 Win Bet

OUTLAW TORN 11/4 Saver




R e d c a r 4.15

11/10 Outback, 5/4 Mixora, 6/1 Variety Show
20/1 Graceful Act, 50/1 Airmyles.

* This is a 10f Maiden for horses aged 3-4-5
* OUTBACK does not have a good profile
* Not when quite exosed for a maiden and absent a while
* MIXORA has comfortably a better profile
* VARIETY SHOW is stablemate of MIXORA
* She is an unraced filly and these can win
* MIXORA looks the stables Number 1
* MIXORA is the obvious choice



R e d c a r 5.20

3/1 Under Par, 7/2 Hab Reeh, 6/1 Deslaya
6/1 Merrjanah, 10/1 Karate Queen, 12/1 Sovereign Street
16/1 Field Finner, 16/1 Isle Of Ellis, 20/1 Benidorm
25/1 Lady By Red, 33/1 Kheya, 33/1 Spread Boy
50/1 Tinzo, 50/1 Toffee Nose, 50/1 Zoom In.

* This is a 6f Maiden Handicap for Amateur riders
* Redcar has 19 renewals of this race
* It is the only Maiden Handicap at this time of year
* There are no similar races elsewhere
* You want a run within 31 days
* 16 of the 19 winners ran within a Month
* I'd avoid horses aged 4 + from maidens
* I'd want at least 2 runs this season
* I'd favour the Male horses
* This leaves just HAB REEH to shortlist
* I wanted to oppose UNDER PAR
* I dont want a filly from 5f with just 4 runs
* SOVEREIGN STREET doesnt appeal as a filly off 347 days
* HAB REEH - Must be one of the safest runners

Selection

HAB REEH 4/1 is a bet worth having



L e i c e s t e r 5.25

4/1 Silvanus, 11/2 Court Applause, 6/1 Cruise Tothelimit
7/1 Love You Louis, 8/1 Mother Jones 8/1 Whitecrest
10/1 Mata Hari Blue, 12/1 Rylee Mooch 16/1 Baby Queen,

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-73 rated horses
* SILVANUS - I can find a winner like him
* Despite that the 33 day absence does put me off
* So to does the Draw in Stall 1 - I think thats the worst draw
* He also has a career high mark
* MATA HARI BLUE - Exposed 6y0 mare down in distance
* I found winners - but they had more backclass than her
* She is another with a career high mark
* WHITECREST - Suspect she needs at least 1 more run
* BABY QUEEN is unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* RYLEE MOOCH - Not overkeen on his profile
* I wanted a more recent race but he isnt far away
* Shortlisted as 20/1 + is too big but he is unsafe
* CRUISE TOTHELIMIT - I have my doubts
* Like the fact he ran yesterday but this is harder
* I question his class off bottomweight
* Equally he may be the clever saver in the race
* COURT APPLAUSE - Statistically ok but not exciting
* I wasnt convinced about him on the ground
* LOVE YOU LOUIS - Definately enough to shortlist
* MOTHER JONES - Comfortable with her profile

Selection

MOTHER JONES Win Bet 7/1
LOVE YOU LOUIS Win Bet 12/1


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