Freezing cold day and no surprise we have lost both the
Market Rasen and Leicester cards. Wincanton is on but
I have nothing there. Impossible to do that card properly
with 3 morning inspections. Today I have had to stay at
Lingfield. There are only 3 races I like there so its a very short message today and I would suggest three bets.


Lingfield 11.55 - ROLAND 8/1 Each Way

Lingfield 12.25 - SPIN AGAIN Win Bet 7/2

Lingfield 2.25 - BAJAN TRYST 5/1 Each Way


My statistics have led me to ROLAND. He reminds me of
the winner on Sunday that had a strangely beautiful profile
and I went with the bet not really knowing what to expect.
She won and it will be interesting to see if ROLAND wins
and happy to stake him at the price. SPIN AGAIN has to
be the fittest horse in the race having ran yesterday. He's
going to need luck as they all do here but he looks good
enough to bet and I think the most likely winner. Harder
to read BAJAN TRYST. I'm not sure what to expect there.

Short message but intolerable position with inspections
and there is no chance of a great message under those
circumstances so its down to 3 Lingfield races today.


Y e s t e r d a y 's R e v i e w

There were 4 bets yesterday and overall I was happy with
the 2 winners especially as DOUBLETOILNTROUBLE the
best bet won easily. We had Vulcanite win as well making
it a profitable day. I think I read the message quite well as I was rightly sceptical about trusting Livias Dream from his small stable and Rollin N Tumblin with the big field. I think we came out of the day with heads held high and in profit.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S



L i n g f i e l d 11.55

9/4 Buona Fortuna, 100/30 Divine Angel, 11/2 Amelia Hull
6/1 Dream About You, 6/1 Woza Moya, 12/1 Roland
14/1 Maypole Joe, 20/1 Garmelow Girl, 33/1 Immaculate Heart.

This is a 2yo seller over a Mile. Lots of different little profiles in these races and they are quite simple to do. These races have nothing complicated about them its all about what sex and experience these horses have and what they achieved before and when and in what sort of race. Lots of times the results are unexpected. Sometimes you dont know whether you can trust them or not. As an example all 33 fillies that came from claiming races have been beaten. The dilemma today is that DIVINE ANGEL and MAYPOLE JOE fail that statistic but with a recent race I'd not be convinced of that statistic. They show fillies that come from Sellers only win with 5 or more runs and AMELIA HULL with 3 runs has to be seen as statistically unsafe too. DREAM ABOUT YOU also fails that statistic albeit by just one run but as she is drawn one I am ignoring her. BUONA FORTUNA has to be respected but you always have a chance of getting lighter raced fillies beaten in these races and she doesnt frighten me anymore than she should do.By far the best record in all these 8f sellers is horses that come from 8f Nurseries so I see ROLAND and WOZA MOYA having the best profile.

* Horses coming from 8f Handicaps
* Between 4 and 12 career starts
* No form beyond a Class 4 race
* No previous wins before
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W 7 W 5 W 3 W W
* WOZA MOYA shares that 5-8 record
* ROLAND shares that 5-8 record

£5 Each Way ROLAND 8/1





L i n g f i e l d 12.25

4/1 Demoiselle Bond, 5/1 Lucky Mark, 5/1 Spin Again
6/1 Frognal, 6/1 Shaunas Spirit, 8/1 Efistorm, 8/1 Hoover
12/1 Intiqaal, 20/1 Beach Candy, 20/1 Totally Trusted
33/1 Inquisitress.

* This is a low grade 7f handicap
* Not the most refreshing race on the day
* I dont want to get bogged down into analysis
* I ran each profile and shortlisted these horses
* SHAUNAS SPIRIT - Like 1 winner but hate her draw
* FROGNAL - Scrapes in but I'd like more runs this year
* LUCKY MARK - Came out well enough to shortlist
* SPIN AGAIN - Has to be included

Selection

SPIN AGAIN ran well enough yesterday to expect him to
go close in this race. He will be the Fittest horse in the race.

£10 Win SPIN AGAIN 7/2





L i n g f i e l d 2.25

100/30 Mezzotint, 4/1 Swiss Cross, 9/2 Bajan Tryst
7/1 Even Stevens, 10/1 Corporal Maddox, 11/1 Song Of Parkes
12/1 Valery Borzov, 14/1 Woolfall Sovereign, 20/1 Sulis Minerva 25/1 Elna Bright.

* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-95 rated horses
* MEZZOTINT is 3 and is absent 159 days
* I looked at every handicap in December in Class 2-3-4
* Thats at any and every distance in those three grades
* I looked at 3 year olds absent 100 or more days
* There was a 2-91 record from these horses
* They had 4 and 5 career starts
* MEZZOTINT is a lot more exposed with 8 runs
* I'd rather look elsewhere with that absence
* EVEN STEVENS comes from a Listed race
* No winners did that its not a good preparation
* He also has a career high mark
* WOOLFALL SOVEREIGN is absent too long
* CORPORAL MADDOX is too risky
* Coming from a claimer I cant match him to winners
* He hasnt won at 6f since 2009
* He has his first run for a new stable today another worry
* I wouldnt want him anyway from Stall one
* ELNA BRIGHT is wrong well beaten over 8f
* SULIS MINERVA is an exposed mare
* With1 run in months i think she is underraced
* SONG OF PARKES - No exposed mare won with her absence

Shortlist

* VALERY BORZOV - I can find 1 winner like him
* SWISS CROSS has done enough to be considered
* BAJAN TRYST - Definate Positive with recent run

Selection

£5 Each Way BAJAN TRYST 5/1

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