Friday August 10th


* Sending again as some members havent recieved it
* Apologies if you have. Its the same message.



No Selection Today

No Mention Today



T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

Trying to get into a bit of Rhythm and momentum at the
moment but it's not coming automatically. The number of
bets have dipped a bit so I want to try and get that up. Not doing much drastically wrong but equally not impressing in either the top of the bottom of the message. The last Six bets have seen a 4/1 winner (Sp 7/1) with two placed horses getting stakes back and 3 losers so we are treading water at the moment. The messages are suffering a little bit from a busy schedule and too much racing so I'd like to try and see if I can break the cycle. The likes of Musselburgh Lingfield and Brighton rarely offer us rich oppurtunities so I fear we could have to wait another day or so before we can strike.

These are Gaff tracks really. Not many races I like and it's Musselburgh - Newmarket and Lingfield dominated. Not a
bet from me today. I know I am due one but these are not
my best tracks. Its annoying recently as several bets I may
have considered have been shut down by the prices going
or the frame of the race changing. I will have far better
options tomorrow. Leaving today for the cherry pickers.




T h u r s d a y 's S u m m a r y

There was probably an acceptable ratio of winners to losers
in yesterdays message but it fell a bit flat as the two that we highlighted lost. Feelthedifference was a close second and it looked like he headed the winner but the favourite came and did him late which was always the possible ending and why I didn't make him a full bet without each way options. I think Kelpie blitz was dissapointing. We had a couple of winners at decent prices but they were in the wrong part of the message and overall it wasn't a great day despite having no official bet.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S




M u s s e l b u r g h 2.30

5/2 Arley Hall, 7/2 Luctor Emergo, 5/1 Fine Kingdom
5/1 Schmooze, 10/1 Border Bandit, 16/1 Laybach
16/1 Polurrian, 20/1 Cathcart Castle, 20/1 Coax
20/1 Haka Dancer.

This is very tricky 12f handicap not least because its occupied by several 3 year olds that met each other last time out at Ayr. LUCTOR EMERGO won that race. I dont want to bet him as I dont feel he is a certain stayer and I don't fine a great record of 3 year olds winning 10f races last time. HAKA DANCER is just a couple of runs short of being in a good place statistically. I dont want BORDER BANDIT as 4 year olds coming from a 10f race had a surprisingly weak record and are were like him. I thought FINE KINGDOM had a reasonably good chance but is was the 3yo's beaten last time over 10f that scored better in
similar races than the 3 year olds like him that won at 12f lasttime. Possibly due to extracting improvement at the new trip but it leads me to ARLEY HALL and SCHMOOZE with very similar profiles as the best options in the race.

Selection

ARLEY HALL - Win Bet 4/1

SCHMOOZE - Saver 6/1



L i n g f i e l d 2.50

3/1 Napinda, 4/1 Hollow Lane, 5/1 Grace Of Hearts
5/1 Hardy Blue, 5/1 Hippie Chick, 8/1 Alexandrakollontai
20/1 Casta Diamante, 20/1 Madam Moreton, 33/1 Kimvara.

* This is a 2yo seller for fillies over 6f
* These races are very rare so evidence is weak
* I looked at horses coming from 2yo sellers
* Those that had 1-2-3 runs doing this were 0-37
* HARDY BLUE fails that and I am taking her on
* HIPPIE CHICK also fails that angle
* One of the outsiders could show improvement and win
* I dont see enough I like to commit to any
* HOLLOW LANE is unraced but these do win
* Because of that he has to be respected
* I think HOLLOW LANE is one of 3 that may win
* NAPINDA and GRACE OF HEARTS the other two
* I wont be surprised if the unraced horse wins
* NAPINDA hasnt shown a lot but it is a bad race
* GRACE OF HEARTS has a penalty as well which wont help
* HOLLOW LANE - You'd want to see market support
* GRACE OF HEARTS - Could be a good place bet
* HOLLOW LANE the win part assuming he doesnt drift




M u s s e l b u r g h 3.00

This is a Novice race over 5f for 2 year olds. There are two horses in LIBER and COSMIC CHATTER who set a higher
standard. I wasnt convinced about FINDOG who only won a
Claimer and OUR DIANE beaten in a Class 5 handicap. It is
a choice for between the two clasier horses. Neither have an outstanding profile but LIBOR just shaded it with both more runs and recent ones as well. My selection is LIBOR.


M u s s e l b u r g h 3.30

9/4 Bradbury, 9/4 Sohcahtoa, 5/1 Artisan
6/1 Royal Bonsai, 6/1 Spruzzo, 20/1 Spiders Star.

* Nasty little 2m handicap
* SPIDERS STAR - Too much against an out of form 9yo
* ARTISAN has a weak profile
* Can't find a 4yo well beaten over 12f winning
* Not with so few runs this season
* SPRUZZO was beaten 82 lengths just 6 days ago
* I think that was too far too soon
* ROYAL BONSAI - He is 4 and absent 149 days
* No 4yo managed that sort of absence like him
* BRADBURY - Shortlisted and in the top 2 in the race
* Not convinced he stays a truly run 2m though
* SOHCAHTOA - The other horse I would consider
* SOHCAHTOA just gets the verdict over Bradbury



L i n g f i e l d 3.50

9/4 Dr Yes, 9/2 Fleur De Cactus, 5/1 Bank Bonus
6/1 City Of Canton, 7/1 Coplow, 8/1 Maria Letizia
12/1 Variety Show, 16/1 Sanctioned, 20/1 Maid Of Silk
50/1 Fairview Sue, 50/1 Oh So Charming, 100/1 Addazero
100/1 Ice Apple.

* This is a Maiden race over 13f
* August has seen only 1 of these races
* That was at Lingfield back in 2002
* That winner came from a 12f Handicap
* So did the runner up now I think about it
* Those horses had 5-6 career starts
* BANK BONUS has that profile
* Straight away thats a plus point for him
* FLEUR DE CACTUS - Cant rule her out
* There are a couple with stronger profiles
* DR YES - His form looks strong
* His biggest threat might be Stall 1
* Its inconclusive - but I'd rather go high
* This looks a race I could split stake
* BANK BONUS could be a place bet at 4/5
* DR YES could be a win bet around 4/5
* Doesnt escape the fact DR YES is very short at 4/5
* Especially when advertsied at 9/4 in the Paper
* BANK BONUS looks the alternative bet e/w
* I wouldnt put anyone off that bet
* Personally I think DR YES should beat him
* I think the split stake bet is a safer bet
* Seduced by the prices though so going each way
* Selection - BANK BONUS e/w 6/1


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M u s s e l b u r g h 4.00

7/2 Green Howard, 4/1 Al Muheer, 8/1 Able Master
8/1 Copperwood, 8/1 Jeannie Galloway, 8/1 Vito Volterra
10/1 Solar Spirit, 12/1 Clockmaker, 12/1 Imperator Augustus
12/1 Polish World.

This is a 7f handicap for 0-9 rated horses. Very difficult in lots of areas not least GREEN HOWARD. He is a 4yo but is hardly well raced this year with just 3 runs. He also has a Months break as well. I ran his profile very carefully. I found one winner with slightly less weight and with just a few days less absence. Overall I would just see his profile as average and short of what I'd want
in a favourite. I see weakness in IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS and
I dont see him safe enough. No 8yo like POLISH WORLD has
overcome a heavy defeat. SOLAR SPIRIT has never won in this
Class or off this mark and is wrong anyway as a 7yo up from 6f. I wouldnt make VITO VOLTERRA a negative but his profile is damaged without a run within 2 weeks. COPPERWOOD is a 7yo and down in distance. I looked at all similar horses his age and it doesn't surprise me they all had more backclass. They all had at least one run in a Class 2 race and COPPERWOOD after 66 runs hasn't been out of a Class 4 grade yet and he has not won beyond a Class 5 race either. CLOCKMAKER isnt too bad but would be safer without his months absence or being well beaten last time.
The issue with JEANNIE GALLOWAY is she's an exposed mare
and none of those have won similar races wither coming from a 6f race or with an absence. I could turn a blind eye to one issue but She has both to overcome and it's putting me off her a bit.

* GREEN HOWARD - Scrapes onto the shortlist
* ABLE MASTER - Shortlisted but I'd have liked less weight
* AL MUHEER - Best profile but can he be trusted ?

Selection

AL MUHEER 4/1 Win Bet
ABLE MASTER Place Bet


N e w m a r k e t 5.40

11/8 Oasis Cannes, 3/1 Makafeh, 11/2 Rafale
13/2 Freeport, 17/2 Rated, 9/1 Red Adair.

Not much to say in this 7f Nursery. Some decent horses and
solid enough profiles. I don't see any fancied negatives. Best profile if I get technical is MAKAFEH mainly because more winners share his profile. Its orthodox and two runs after he won a 7f maiden last time is fine. Several winners won these Nurseries with a similar profile and 3 of these came in this particular race albeit a few years ago. His chance depends on what opposition he faces and I can only guess here but with a good profile I just gave the verdict to MAKAFEH.




N e w m a r k e t 6.10

7/4 Ouzinkie, 7/2 Jimmy Elder, 11/2 Northern Harbour
13/2 Laughing Rock, 15/2 Silk Scarf, 11/1 Super Cookie
14/1 Alpine Jerry, 20/1 Rio Cato, 25/1 Paige Flyer.

This is a 2yo seller over 7f. I would be inclined to rule out all unraced horses and the once raced much as occasionally one has popped up and won. Alpine Jerry - Laughing Rock Silk Scarf , Super Cookie and Paige Flyer could all do with more runs. I dont feel RIO CATO has done enough. I feel there are 3 main runners. The weights say OUZINKIE has the best chance but no so sure. They all come from maiden races and none that managed that had more than 6 runs so with 10 runs OUZINKIE is pretty exposed. No problems with NORTHERN HARBOUR and he should go well with
JIMMY ELDER also offering a serious threat to all. We
have a choice of three. Those wanting a win bet I would
just prefer JIMMY ELDER at the prices. I would also be
keen on a split stake bet. NORTHERN HARBOUR as a
place bet and JIMMY ELDER as a win bet. One of those
races with multiple options to be chosen from depending
on what type of bet suits you best.



N e w m a r k e t 7.15

9/4 Red Shuttle, 7/2 Sammy Alexander
5/1 My Guardian Angel, 5/1 Nave, 8/1 Larkrise Star
10/1 Effigy, 10/1 Spyder, 33/1 Galletto.

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* EFFIGY may lack fitness
* GALLETTO hasnt done nearly enough
* RED SHUTTLE is a 5yo and comes from an 8f race
* I looked at all 5 year olds doing that
* They all had at least 13 career starts and he has just 8
* RED SHUTTLE is just a bit too unorthodox
* SAMMY ALEXANDER - Short of runs this season
* There are 4yos win with 1-2 runs this year
* Not with so little backclass though
* I think thats a problem as is his 56 day absence
* MY GUARDIAN ANGEL is 3 and has a months break
* Not much backclass either and well beaten last time
* I'd have prefered a better last run to match him to winners

Shortlist

* SPYDER is a 4yo seasonal debutant
* I have found 1 winner like him so he's respected
* LARKRISE STAR has a reasonably competent profile
* No real objections to this older mare
* NAVE is very hard to read
* I found a 6yo like him down from 12f with 3 runs this year
* That was Wellington Hall who won this race in 2004
* I'd see him as a positive with considerable backclass
* NAVE has to be considered here

Selection - NAVE



N e w m a r k e t 8.20

4/1 Fratellino, 4/1 Picabo, 6/1 Joe Packet, 6/1 Sohraab
8/1 Sacrosanctus, 10/1 Cheworee, 10/1 Swiss Cross
10/1 Whozthecat, 14/1 Rafaaf, 16/1 Harrison George
20/1 Beach Candy.

* This is a 0-94 handicap over 6f
* CHEWOREE is a 3yo filly absent 63 days
* I thought the absence may be too much for her
* BEACH CANDY doesnt offer enough for a filly
* HARRISON GEORGE - Have to oppose him first time out
* SWISS CROSS - Unsafe but not a negative
* SOHRAAB - Only an average profile aged 8 from 5f
* JOE PACKET - Short of runs this year and a recent race
* Not convinced he can defy a career high mark today
* SACROSANCTUS - He may not have done enough last time
* Higher mark than his best previous win as well
* PICABO is a 4yo filly who won last time
* Asking an awful lot for her to follow up that win
* She's had 16 runs now so improvement may be minor
* She only has 4 runs this season as well and no recent run
* Career high mark as well and I see weakness there
* I ran her profile and she came up short
* Appreciate she won easily last time so could be wrong
* PICABO has a bit to prove to me
* FRATELLINO - Unsafe profile but not a negative
* Yet to win at 6f and there are doubts
* RAFAAF - I found 1 similar winner. Respected
* RAFAAF does need a career best today
* WHOZTHECAT has enough to shortlist

Selection

Split Stake Bet

WHOZTHECAT 8/1 Win Bet
RAFAAF 20/1 Win Bet

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