No Full Bet today

No Top of the Message Bet



I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

There is no Flat Racing for two days now.
That means there wont be much analysis
today or tomorrow at least for the Racing
each day. I'm just about done with doing
much on the All Weather at the moment.

On Thursday we have the start of the big
Aintree Grand National meeting and this
will get top priority this week. I will send
statistics for every race by tomorrow and
those Generic Statistics. I also intend to
start and finish my Grand National work
and with a bit of luck have my selection
in tomorrow's message. That is the plan.

Aintee must be treated like Cheltenham
this year. Detailed previews is just about
every race. There will also be a member
tipping competition with a prize fund on
the message board available for every
member to try and win. I will be trying
to keep the Sponsors money though.



Todays Options

Today's cards are poor. I have looked at
a couple of things but not much. Hardly
any analysis today. I'm in Aintree mode
and without any Flat Turf Racing for the
next two days we have a clear run at it.

No Bet Today




M o n d a y 's R e v i e w

Mixed day yesterday. Plenty of positives and
negatives. The main dissapointment was the
bet on JUSTINEO who finished second which
was so frustrating. He didnt make his fitness
tell much as it looked like he might hold on.
This was the second proper message of this
season and considering the first provided us
with a slap in the face this was much better
and results of L W L L L P L W W L W W L L.
From 14 previews we had 5 winners and one
placed as well and that included a couple at
decent prices. It was a big improvement but
the impression is still that its very dangerous
out there with the bad ground and a lack of
knowledge about which horses lack fitness.
Not time to be reckless and we need to stay
in control and cautious. I had 7 options that
I categorised. The novelty bet failed in the
Irish National but nobody had that winner.
Indian Castle and Ubaldo Des Menhies both
frustratingly came second. The right bet for
that was the Burglary Each Way double as
two losers returned the vast majority of the
stakes unpalatable as the bet was. I wasnt
sure what to make of WYLDFIRE drifting in
the betting but he won easily after looking
beaten and trading at 250/1. That was very
nice but I couldnt understand that market.
Not a brilliant day but lots of improvement
from Saturday and we had some winners.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S

Southwell 3.50

This is a 5f handicap. I thought there were two options
for bets. One was an each way bet on Six Wives at 7/1.
The other was a split stake bet with Evens Stevens the
win bet and Six Wives the place bet. If I had to choose
then it may just be worth going for Six Wives each way.


Southwell 4.20

7/4 Elusive Hawk, 7/2 Art Dzeko, 9/2 Mata Hari Blue
8/1 Albert Tatlock, 8/1 Masked Dance, 10/1 Decent Fella
12/1 Mazovian.

I can see why many will fancy ELUSIVE HAWK here as
he's flying at the moment. He has earnt plenty of recent
respect. I just wonder if he will beat MASKED DANCE as
he has to give him 20lbs. Look at things this way.

* ELUSIVE HAWK has never run in Class 3 or higher
* MASKED DANCE has ran in Class 2 before
* He has twice won a Class 3 handicap as well
* He also gets 20lbs in weight despite much more backclass

Bearing that in mind MASKED DANCE looks interesting
but there are no each way options with 7 runners and
it has to be considered that ELUSIVE HAWK is running
so well and has a more recent run. There could be an
interesting compromise bet here by betting them both.

* ELUSIVE HAWK - Half Stakes to win will protect stakes

* MASKED DANCE - Half Stakes to win can still win plenty




Southwell 5.20

7/4 Beauchamp Xerxes, 5/1 Mcconnell
5/1 Sofias Number One, 6/1 Bentley,
10/1 Bonnie Prince Blue, 10/1 Slewtoo, 12/1 Chez Vrony
16/1 Tony Hollis, 33/1 General Tufto, 33/1 Tenancy.

This mile handicap offers everyone a dilemma. There
is no doubt BEAUCHAMP XERXES stands out and there
is no chance I would have opposed him had this been
Lingfield. There is a definate Polytrack look to him as
a horse thats never raced here and from a sire who is
0-19 with all his runners at Southwell only 1 managing
to place. Despite that it is still very hard to oppose him
in a 0-55 given some superb backclass. There is a huge
risk he will hate it here but he could still outclass them
and win despite that and the trade off is we will get a
much better price than his form demands. Had he been
running on Polytrack he would be odds on. His form is
so much better than rather than oppose him each way
with another horse I'd rather use him as a saver. That
would seem to be the senssible way to play this race.

Selection

BENTLEY 11/2 Win Bet to Two thirds of stake

BEAUCHAMP XERXES 2/1 Saver Bet One third of stake

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