No Full Bet today

No Top of the Message Bets



I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

On the last Six Saturdays we have had a total of 87
previews which averages almost 14 each Saturday.
There is hardly any today. This is the one weekend
of the year when I'm not fit for purpose and unable
to offer you anything. The Cheltenham previews do
take their toll and it is impossible to prepare for the
Saturday or to be effective today. Therefore its is a
very short summaried message and a no bet day.

There is rain and soft ground everywhere. I'm only
going through the motions today. I can not believe
the Lincoln is only next week. I am going to have
a day off tomorrow. One day early next week the
Grand National will need looking at and I want to
try and get some Aintree Generic Statistics having
seen how brilliantly they performed at Cheltenham.


It is a self service Buffet style message today with
the Brain needing to wind down and take a break.



F r i d a y s R e v i e w

The Festival is over for another year. Come next year
when we are looking forward to this we will probably
forget how horrendous some of the races are. Fridays
two bets both broke level. LONG RUN placed and he's
run a good race and got our money back. In the final
race the saver ALDERWOOD won. We will never know
how Marshal Zhukov would have got on as through no
fault of his own he was brought down but at least the
stakes were recovered with the saver winning. Overall
I'd see this years festival as Respectable. If we crunch
the numbers there is a small overall loss but thats not
too bad as I was previewing almost every race and it
is a huge disadvantage in doing that. I know know if
big messages are the best way to play these festivals
but thats what we do. I am glad it's over now. It does
mean we can look forward to the Grand National and
the 2013 Flat Season. We did not have a barnstormer
but I think it was just about acceptable. The highlight
was surely the Generic Negatives. There were 55 of
these and we got all 55 beaten. I am proud of these.
I will try and find some time to think about finding a
few of these for the Flat season. They must exist but
the brain has to be fresh and active and imaginative
to create these things and mine isn't at the moment.

****************************************************
****************************************************


P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


F F O S L A S

I don't fancy anything at this meeting. I looked at the
opening maiden hurdle at 1.55pm and I wouldn't rule
out a shock. Both CASTLE BEACH & FISHING BRIDGE
looked horses to oppose. I can't have MINELLA FIFTY
after a poor recent run. RED ADMIRABLE looks a far
safer option. I would see him as an each way double
option but short of that I like RED ADMIRABLE best.

The only other race I liked was the 4.15pm. Recently
I made a case for MY BOY PADDY at Carlisle. He Fell
at the first fence that day so we were never able to
see how he'd have got on. I have some good recent
excuses for this horse. He didn't stay at Bangor and
wasn't ready to win before then. I liked his chance
in this race but I was frustrated I couldnt find many
negatives against him and it is too strong a contest.


K E M P T O N

The 2.15pm is a Novice Hurdle. Probably a bit more
competetive than ideal. HONOUR SYSTEM would be
a certainty on his Flat form but he hasnt raced over
hurdles and the market is warning us something is
not quite right. I am looking for an each way option
against him. LORDOFTHEHOUSE comes out badly
from a 2m 5f handicap with just 3 runs. I could not
bet HORIZONTAL SPEED with any confidence from
a Bumper one he didnt complete in. If there is any
each way value here it may be OURMANMASSINI
and I just favoured him with the best profile here.

Kempton 3.25

11/10 Shernando, 9/2 Ballylifen, 11/2 Kaysersberg
8/1 Neltara, 17/2 Salmanazar, 12/1 Thimaar
14/1 Deep Trouble, 16/1 Yazdi, 66/1 My Lord
100/1 Present Accepted.

* This is a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle.
* SHERNANDO is the obvious choice
* He has this strong profile
* Horses aged 6
* Winning a 2m 5f Maiden Hurdle last time
* Running within a Month
* No Graded Form
* There were 4 horses that had this profile
* They finished W W 2 W
* SHERNANDO would be my selection
* Heavy rain would count against him though


The 4.35pm is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle. I wasnt totally
convinced about GOD´S OWN as he's only 5 and much
as he won a Novice last time he isnt experienced and
I couldnt match him to a winner. OPEN HEARTED does
not interest me with topweight and just the one run so
far this season. I do not fancy MINELLA CLASS. Mares
win these races but none had one run that season and
none were absent more than 7 weeks so failing both of
those makes TANTE SISSI look vulnerable. I respected
MASSINI LOTTO who won a Novice Hurdle last time out
but his profile was only average. The safest profile was
probably BABY SHINE as he is my choice each way.


L I N G F I E L D

It is too much of a culture shock to do this meeting just
after Cheltenham. I thought ERODIUM would probably
take the maiden at 4.05. I fancy GREY MIRAGE at 4.40
but he looks an each way double bet to me. The hard
meeting of the day here and an information card and
I'm leaving it alone as a wrong card on the wrong day.


U T T O X E T E R

The only race that interests me is the Midland National.


U t t o x e t e r 3.50

4/1 Chac Du Cadran, 7/1 Master Overseer, 8/1 Carruthers
8/1 Cool Operator, 10/1 Big Occasion, 10/1 One In A Milan
11/1 Fill The Power, 12/1 Major Malarkey, 14/1 Rebeccas Choice 16/1 Global Power, 33/1 You Know Yourself.


* This is a Handicap Chase over an extended 4m 1f
* The race has a long history and tradition

* BIG OCCASION is trying to be the first 6yo winner
* Could be too much for a horse that bleeds

* I looked at the absences of all the past winners
* These horses won with the following absences
* 81 14 54 17 13 22 62 42 27 51 27 21 17 28
* COOL OPERATOR absent 90 days if off longer than all
* I also think he is underraced this season
* No exposed winner of this had just 1-2-3 runs this year
* No exposed horse won absent a month or more either
* COOL OPERATOR fails both those angles
* COOL OPERATOR isnt sure to stay either
* His sire hasnt had a winner over this far before

* FILL THE POWER doesnt do it for me
* FILL THE POWER comes from a Novice Chase
* The only horse to win from a Novice Chase was in 2010
* That horse was far lighter raced than he is
* He also went and won a Cheltenham Gold Cup
* I worry about FILL THE POWER's stamina
* He had the speed to win a 2m 4f race last May
* His sire hasnt bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet

* ONE IN A MILAN also comes from a Novice Chase
* I would have liked a better last run
* He was outclassed and wasnt knocked about
* That said 31 lengths is a long way in a small field
* ONE IN A MILAN is just about shortlistable

* CHAC DU CADRAN is 7 and has 5 Chase starts
* No problem at all with lightly raced 7 year olds
* I do have two problems with him
* He is absent longer than any 7yo winner
* All 5 winning 7 year olds had more backclass
* I wouldnt make him a negative
* In fact I felt he was the 3rd most likely winner
* He is just too short at 11/4 with his profile


* This is usually won by a horse aged 7-8-9
* Since 1995 horses aged 10 or more are 0-78
* This could be a Bogus statistic
* Plenty of 10 year olds won before 1995
* You have to distinguish between horses aged 10 +

* Some have light weights and some high weights
* Some have absences and some recent runs

* What you want from older horses is simple
* You want a light weight and a recent run
* Horses aged 10 doing this were fine

* The winners aged 10 or more all had 10st 7lbs or less
* Lightweighted 10 year olds score well
* The winners aged 10 or more all ran within a month

* CARRUTHERS is an exposed 10yo
* I dont want him off topweight and a career mark
* He didnt run within a Month
* MASTER OVERSEER is another highweighted 10yo
* He also failed to run within the pasr month
* CARRUTHERS and MASTER OVERSEER are not right
* Neither are like the previous winners aged 10 +

* MAJOR MALARKEY and REBECCAS CHOICE are
* There are winners aged 10 + like them

* MAJOR MALARKEY is a lightly weighted 10yo
* That gets him shortlisted in this race
* Especially as he was 2nd in last years race
* Technically I wanted another run this season from him
* He had fewer runs last year though when second

* REBECCAS CHOICE is very similar to the 1995 winner
* Because of that and his price he is shortlisted

Selection


REBECCAS CHOICE 16/1 + Win Bet

MAJOR MALARKEY 7/1 Each Way

****************************************************
****************************************************