No Full Bet today
1 Top of the Message Bets
4 Previews


Todays Bet

Split Stakes Bet


Lingfield 4.40

EL LIBERTADOR 8/1

Each Way



RED MYSTIQUE 10/1

Win Bet


* Assuming a £10 Stake
* £4 Each Way El Libertador
* £2 Win Red Mystique





I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Only Lingfield today as the weather has taken
the National Hunt cards. It is a quiet day today.
The early part of this week is a bit scrappy and
won't be easy to find bets. Looking ahead now
there's never any Racing on Good Friday these
days so it gets very busy from Saturday. There
will be a Sunday message this week and then
a very busy Easter Bank Holiday message. I'm
going to Prioritise Aintree Next week. I've got
six Generic Stats there and will have statistics
in every race. From this Saturday it will be so
busy but the choice will improve all messages.

Todays Bet


Lingfield 4.40

EL LIBERTADOR 8/1

Each Way

RED MYSTIQUE 10/1

Win Bet


This is only a hopeful bet. Things will be quiet
until Saturday so I want to try and have a few
bets especially at big prices. Not afraid to end
up with a couple of losers early in the week as
the choice isn't really there but if I can find one
or two bets at big prices there is no great harm
in throwing a couple of arrows to see if we get
a direct hit. Today's bet is one of those arrows.



S a t u r d a y s R e v i e w

The weather Killed the Saturday cards and we
only had a Southwell All Weather card. There
was no bet and only 4 previews. We found the
first winner and started welll but could not add
to that and that was a bit dissapointing but the
day could have been worse without any choice.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


L I N G F I E L D

I am ducking the selling race at 2.10pm. Looking at
the weights this should be PRINCE OF BURMA's race
but I not prepared to bet him at a short price. That's
because both ABHAATH and ALHABAN have raced
much more recently and are only a little bit behind
on ability and if you look at the Racing Post Ratings
in the race PRINCE OF BURMA officially ran worse
than he ever has done before last time out. It won't
be a surprise if he is beaten by something here but
with a poor frame and a tactical small field race its
too confusing. ABAATH or ALHABAN might be best.
Best guess would be ALHABAN but this is so messy.




L i n g f i e l d 2.40

5/2 Mudaawem, 7/2 Marmot Bay, 7/2 Warrant Officer
9/2 Hidden Link, 6/1 Tebbit, 9/1 Limoges.

This is a 3yo handicap over a 8f. The Racing Post say
"None of these has a very compelling profile" but I'd
go further and say all of these are negatives. I could
not find a winner like HIDDEN LINK down from 12f or
MARMOT BAY coming up from a 5f race. TEBBIT has
a weak profile from a Claimer. Both MUDAAWEM and
WARRANT OFFICER have heavy defeats to overcome
and LIMOGES hasn't done enough. All of these come
out badly. Perhaps MUDAAWEM has an excuse for a
poor last run. Maybe the race came too soon after a
seasonal debut and he may not have got home. Not
a safe race as nothing has an attractive profile. It is
an unpleasant forces guess and mine's MUDAAWEM.




L i n g f i e l d 3.10

15/8 Elusive Hawk, 4/1 Valdaw, 11/2 West Leake
11/2 Yankee Storm, 17/2 Sannibel, 10/1 The Happy Hammer
11/1 Lord Of The Dance, 20/1 Satwa Laird.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* ELUSIVE HAWK won a 6f handicap last time
* There were winners aged 9 that won again at 7f
* However they all had at least Class 2 form before
* ELUSIVE HAWK only has Class 4 form
* If I look at horses winning 6f races with Class 4 form
* The only winners were under 7 years old
* With topweight he looks too short to me
* YANKEE STORM has similar problems
* He won last time out over 7f and has Class 3 form
* Asking a lot for an 8yo to win again
* Especially when absent more than a month
* I cant see a good enough case for him
* SANNIBEL - Beaten too far for a mare last time
* SATWA LAIRD - I dont like him with 1 run since November
* THE HAPPY HAMMER - Not a negative but not shortlisted
* I prefered 3 others and he just missed out
* Tough race this- I have to shortlist three

Shortlist


* WEST LEAKE - Just about enough to shortlist
* He won last time and has to do that again as a 7yo
* With no recent run I'd have liked more backclass

* VALDAW - Acceptable profile
* Wouldn't worry me he hasnt won at 7f yet

* LORD OF THE DANCE - Complicated profile
* With a recent run I wont be shocked if he won


Selection

LORD OF THE DANCE 14/1 Win Bet

WEST LEAKE 6/1 Win Bet

VALDAW 7/1 Saver Bet




L i n g f i e l d 4.10

11/10 Mysterial, 11/8 Limit Up
15/2 Uganda Glory, 12/1 Clearing
25/1 Spymistress.

This is a 6f maiden for 3 year olds. It shapes like a two
horse race with vastly different profiles. LIMIT UP has
a run this year but that was over a mile and he drops
down to 6f. Statistically its impossible to split them. If
MYSTERIAL had raced within 7 months I'd have gone
with him. He hasn't though and that levels it up purely
from a statistical point of view. Genuine toss of a coin
job really and thats fallen in favour of LIMIT UP here.
That decision is partly down to him being better odds.



L i n g f i e l d 4.40

9/2 Cozy Tiger, 6/1 Mount Abora, 13/2 Red Mystique
15/2 Irene Kennet, 8/1 Crimson Monarch, 9/1 El Libertador
11/1 Rollin ´n Tumblin, 12/1 Legal Legacy, 12/1 Petersboden
12/1 Polarity, 12/1 Silver Six, 14/1 Rodrigo De Freitas
16/1 Zafaraban, 20/1 Our Play.

* This is a 13f handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* I will start with the Draw advantage
* Since 2007 there are 13 handicaps here with 11 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 0-38 record in them
* If there is a weakness it's the very low draws
* ZAFARABAN drawn 1 is rejected from a maiden
* RODRIGO DE FREITAS could have been better drawn
* He's an exposed 6yo coming up from 11f
* The only similar winners had a bit more to offer
* Either more backclass or a more recent run
* MOUNT ABORA has a similar concern
* I dont think Stall 2 is a good draws
* She's also an exposed 6yo and she is a Mare
* I like her recent run but shes very short on backclass
* She will also need luck in running as a hold up type
* OUR PLAY - Weak profile and not running well enough
* SILVER SIX - comes out badly with 1 run since August
* POLARITY is a 7yo mare
* Very few older mares are so inexperienced
* She's never won before and has no backclass
* She may pop in but no obvious reason why
* His stables record on the flat since 2008 is 0-45
* POLARITY doesnt offer me enough
* COZY TIGER had been out of form for some time
* There was a bit more promise on his last race
* He is well treated but not convinced he's ready to win
* COZY TIGER is 8 and has raced once in 61 days
* There should be a lot more fitter horses than him
* LEGAL LEGACY - Unimpressive overall profile
* Only enough to prevent him being a negative
* LEGAL LEGACY also has to prove he stays
* ROLLIN ´N TUMBLIN is a 9yo
* I wanted a more recent run for him
* Especially over a trip that could be too short
* Rarely runs over this sort of trip these days
* He last ran well over this distance in 2008
* ROLLIN ´N TUMBLIN brings too much risk
* CRIMSON MONARCH won last time out
* Only 1 horse aged 9 like him followed up
* He had a bit more backclass as well
* Has a chance but doesnt stand out much

Shortlist

* PETERSBODEN is 4 and down from 2m
* I found 1 winner with his profile
* There is a chance he didnt stay 2m last time
* Back at 13f he could go well
* Biggets problem is a very weak stable

* IRENE KENNET is an older mare
* She is unorthadox with only 11 career runs
* That makes her more unsafe than negative
* She is also short on backclass though
* She has to come up in trip without a recent run
* She isnt like any winners and that worries me
* So few unexposed older mares run
* That makes her hard to match to any winners
* I respect her as she has a good chance on form

* RED MYSTIQUE is an unexposed 4yo from 13f
* Statistically he is on the neutral side
* I fancied him at Lingfield 3 runs ago
* That was because it was a 12f race
* He hadnt been staying 2 mile trips before then
* We backed him at 8/1 and he was caught on the line
* I left him alone two runs ago at Wolverhampton
* He's never ran on that track before
* He was also ridden by an inexperienced lady rider
* RED MYSTIQUE still managed a decent 2nd place
* Last time out he could only managed 6th place
* That was a better race than this one though
* It was also a small field without much pace
* Happy to overlook that and he could go well
* RED MYSTIQUE looks one of the interesting ones

* EL LIBERTADOR is statistically fine
* He finds it hard to get his head in front
* He is admirally consistent though
* Look at his record in Class 5 or higher
* He has a 0-31 record when running in that grade
* His record in Class 6 races is 4-35
* His last 3 races were all in Class 5 races
* Last time he met horses rated 72 73 61 74 64 75 66
* Today he only meets horses rated 0-60
* EL LIBERTADOR is now in his ideal Grade of race

Selection


EL LIBERTADOR 8/1 Each Way Bet

RED MYSTIQUE 10/1 Win Bet

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