No Full Bet today

No Top of the Message Bet

13 Previews



I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Catterick and Nottingham dominate today sharing
13 previews. I would like to have done something
on the sand but I havent had the chance because
of the large fields. Its been quite a heavy message
to get done and I know I've been in a fight. There
is a chance Catterick could chew me up and spit
me out today. It's one of those meetings that can
be sorted but could bite back and embarrass me.

I dont think I have nailed a handicap bet that had
every angle covered. The Catterick 5.50 is a race
that would suit my style of analysis. I came down
on the side of Lesleys Choice 10/1 with a saver on
Chosen One but I dont think I have made the case
for a staked bet. It does look quite a difficult day.

I considered an each way double today. The best
strategy is to resist these bets and neither options
are statistically safe but these two could be a bet.

Catterick 2.50 - POLAR KITE 7/4
Nottingham 3.40 - TESTOSTERONE 9/4
Each Way Double


In the end I think I have ran head first into two
complicated cards. Lots of my selections today
are taking fitness on trust. Many are quite long
prices as well so dont expect a high strike rate
of winners today. Thinking about my each way
double I am half tempted to dump that and go
with TESTOSTERONE as an each way single as
there is a bit of 5/2 about her. Thats more a bet
I'd be prepared to have myself rather than give
out. I want a bet today but have talked myself
out of one. I dont think I have made the case
so I am going to wait today and keep it tight.


M o n d a y 's R e v i e w

It was a quiet message yesterday almost a warm up
one. Started brilliantly with 7/1 and 11/4 winners but
it then dipped a bit with 4 consequetive losers. Still
well ahead by the time my best option Mucky Molly
placed each way. The middle let the message down
but overall we came out on top and won the battle.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



Nottingham 2.10

4/6 Elhaame, 3/1 Stepping Ahead, 8/1 Magic Lando
8/1 Hello Sailor, 8/1 Switch On, 20/1 No Win No Fee
20/1 Star Of Namibia, 50/1 Inigo Montoya.

This is a 3yo maiden and a reasonable standard
set by ELHAAME who must be the most likely to
win the race. I think he should just about win it
but I wouldnt be prepared to bet him at the odds.



C a t t e r i c k 2.20

11/4 Magic Ice, 5/1 Jofranka, 11/2 Secret Advice
15/2 Princess Sheila, 9/1 Charlemagne Diva
10/1 Con Leche, 10/1 Ridgeblade, 11/1 Robyn
14/1 Moss The Boss, 14/1 Poppy Bond
16/1 Shirley´s Pride, 25/1 Lady Calantha.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f
* Catterick races like this demand 4 + runs
* There was a winner with 3 runs in 2010
* He was a seasonal debutant but all others had more
* On this particular track I'd want more than 3 runs
* JOFRANKA has only had 3 runs
* SECRET ADVICE also has just 3 runs
* I want more from both so they are rejected
* PRINCESS SHEILA is a seasonal debutant filly
* She's a bit exposed and comes from 7f
* No fillies have won like her
* POPPY BOND was hammered last time out
* She was badly hampered thought in that race
* For me to have matched her to a winner
* She would have needed to have won last time
* Even allowing for being hampered I doubt she would
* SHIRLEY´S PRIDE had a miserable first season
* She looked useless and this is a big ask
* Her only mitigation factor is her trainer
* He is no Henry Cecil but the horse has upgraded yards
* If there is any ability his new trainer could find it

Shortlist

* RIDGEBLADE - Statistically I cant rule her out
* Shes a filly absent 192 days
* As there is money for her I'd conisder her

* MAGIC ICE - I cant match him statistically
* Not convinced he wants this drop in trip either
* She does have 3 runs this year though
* On this track that has to be an advantage

* CHARLEMAGNE DIVA - Plenty of experience
* She has two helpfull runs this season as well
* Last time out she dropped from 8f to 5f
* She showed a bit of speed and could improve again

Selection

There is no cast iron safe bet here but I didnt have
many problems with CHARLEMAGNE DIVA and she
could be worth a split stake bet with RIDGEBLADE.
The other possibility was to squeeze a saver into
the staking plan on Magic Ice. Thats your decision.


CHARLEMAGNE DIVA 9/1 Win Bet

RIDGEBLADE 9/1 Win Bet




N o t t i n g h a m 2.40

11/4 Fils Anges, 11/2 Secret Look, 11/2 The Art Of Racing
7/1 Moviesta, 7/1 My Name Is Rio, 8/1 Bispham Green
8/1 Secret Missile, 14/1 Khefyn, 16/1 Mayfield Girl
16/1 Midnight Dream, 25/1 Starlight Angel.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f
* 16 races at 5f here last year with 9 + runners
* Winners were drawn 8 2 8 7 9 11 11 13 6 2 5 4 9 4 7 9
* I wouldnt want a very low stall if I could help it
* MIDNIGHT DREAM is drawn 1 . Not keen on his absence
* MY NAME IS RIO only has the one run
* Not convinced about him absent 41 days
* BISPHAM GREEN won a 6f maiden last time
* That was his 9th run and he's a bit exposed
* There are a couple of fillies winning first time out
* None were like STARLIGHT ANGEL
* None were like MAYFIELD GIRL
* KHEFYN is a bit exposed to win first time out
* There are 17 winners that come from Nurseries
* They had the following career runs
* 10 4 8 6 7 9 8 4 4 4 4 8 9 5 6 9 10
* None of them had under 4 career starts
* THE ART OF RACING has only 3
* I Always want that 4th run from Nursery horses

Shortlist

* FILS ANGES ran 9 days ago and was unlucky
* He finished well and looked like he should have won
* This however is a drop to 5f
* I ran his profile with just 1 run this year over 5f
* The only winners had more runs than he does
* There are safer profiles and at bigger prices

* I looked at horses from 5f maidens for 2 year olds
* There were 4 winners with this profile
* There was a filly with just 2 runs
* There were males with 1 - 8 - 9 previous runs
* SECRET MISSILE has 4 runs which isnt an exact fit
* I would respect his chance without getting excited

* MOVIESTA has this profile with 3 runs
* He is another that has to be respected

* SECRET LOOK - Good solid profile
* The winners like him had high weights too
* The problem is you dont know if he is fit


Selection

SECRET LOOK 8/1 Win Bet

MOVIESTA 4/1 Saver Bet




C a t t e r i c k 2.50

11/4 Polar Kite, 4/1 Green Park, 4/1 It´s A Mans World
9/2 Beckermet, 6/1 Llewellyn, 10/1 Rawaafed
20/1 No Quarter, 25/1 Thrust Control, 33/1 Media Jury.

This is a 7f Claiming race. There are surprisingly few
of these races at this time of year. I took the view that
the older GREEN PARK and BECKERMET as 10 and 11
year olds would need more races this season and its
quite likely they will not be fit enough. RAWAAFED's
not safe enough given so few Claimer winners come
from a maiden. The problem with LLEWELLYN as a
seasonal debutant is a lack of backclass after having
17 runs. IT´S A MANS WORLD is exposed and absent
several months. Not a disaster of a profile but not too
many have won. POLAR KITE won a claimer 3 races
ago a performance that would win this race. He got
claimed and downgraded stables. Since then he has
won and finished second which suggests he can run
to a good enough level to win. I dont like the difficult
56 day break but equally I dont like any other profile
against him. He has Bled before and has never raced
at Catterick before so there are doubts but he loves
a small field and he does have the ability to win this.

Selection

POLAR KITE 7/4 +




N o t t i n g h a m 3.10

7/4 Spirit Quartz, 5/2 Humidor, 9/2 Bogart
8/1 Stepper Point, 10/1 Captain Carey
25/1 West Coast Dream 33/1 Silvanus.

* This 5f Conditions race has a 12 year history
* There are 37 similar races at other tracks
* No horse won a similar race absent 7 + months
* CAPTAIN CAREY fails that absent 633 days
* Every past winner had Listed or Group form
* I would not want a horse that hasnt had that
* The following horses are rejected failing this stat
* CAPTAIN CAREY - WEST COAST DREAM - SILVANUS
* STEPPER POINT - Statistically he has a chance
* There is no reason why he cant win
* He had such a bad 2012 season though as a 3yo
* He was either campaigned in too high a grade
* Or he simply didnt train on as a 3 year old
* Not giving him the benefit of the doubt

Shortlist

* BOGART - I would see him as a positive
* He didnt have a great year last year though

* HUMIDOR is fast enough to respect
* I dont like his 39 day absence though
* Most of his wins come later in the season as well

* SPIRIT QUARTZ - hard to read with so much Italian form
* He's never won a 5f before
* 2nd in last year's Nunthorpe he has to be respected
* He ran in a Grade 1 in Dubai 11 days ago
* Missed the break but finished within 7 lengths
* It all depends on how he comes out of that race
* I think he should just about be good enough

Selection

SPIRIT QUARTZ Evens +





C a t t e r i c k 3.20

5/2 Sandy Lane, 4/1 Pravda Street
9/2 Sardanapalus, 6/1 Majestic Dream
8/1 Rio Cobolo, 17/2 Glenridding, 12/1 Hail Bold Chief
14/1 Bassett Road, 16/1 Sunraider.

This is a 7f handicap. SANDY LANE has raced this year
but it was 96 days ago and he also comes up from a 6f
race. Not keen on his profile and although he has now
upgraded stables he also lacks any backclass and I am
looking elsewhere. I dont want PRAVDA STREET as an
8yo seasonal debutant. MAJESTIC DREAM is also first
time out. I can't rule him out statistically but I felt that
he may just need the run. HAIL BOLD CHIEF has not
raced in over 7 months. Thats too long for an exposed
6 year old and he has not raced over this short a trip
for 3 seasons and he brings too many doubts with him.
If you look at exposed horses that have raced once so
far this season you find those aged 8 or more are 0-60
and that tells me that 9yo GLENRIDDING will probably
still need the race and may not be fit enough. I could
not bet BASSETT ROAD from 5f. SUNRAIDER does not
offer enough at the moment. RIO COBOLO flopped on
his last run. The only winners I found overcoming bad
runs like him had more backclass. He could put that
behind him but he doesnt have a safe profile. This is
a race where I can only shortlist one horse. If he can
not win or isn't fit enough than it will be won by any
other horse with a flawed profile so I will risk him.

Selection

* SARDANAPALUS - 4yo debutant and is like winners
* He looks the safest profile in the race



N o t t i n g h a m 3.40

5/2 Sir Graham Wade, 3/1 Testosterone
7/2 Cavaleiro, 6/1 Lily In Pink, 10/1 Earth Amber
10/1 Handazan, 16/1 The Bull Hayes, 33/1 Jaaryah.

* The Further Flight Stakes is a listed race over 14f.
* Every past winner came from at least a Class 2 race
* JAARYAH and THE BULL HAYES fail this
* Fillies have won one past renewal
* I dont want EARTH AMBER as a filly first time out
* Not with just 3 previous career runs
* LILY IN PINK is out as an older mare first time out
* HANDAZAN is hard to read from Hurdles
* Wouldnt be my first choice on his previous flat form
* TESTOSTERONE is a mare first time out
* We've had a 4yo filly win first time but none older
* TESTOSTERONE was sold for 1.2 Million Gns last year
* Only 3 runs last year and she never lived up to that
* There has to be a doubt about her today
* There is a case to be made for her I make later on
* Seasonal debutants aged 4 score very well
* They won this in 2007 2008 2009 2010
* There were none in 2011 so they couldnt win that
* SIR GRAHAM WADE and CAVALEIRO fit this profile
* These 4 winners had 3 6 9 10 previous runs
* CAVALEIRO has 10 runs and has to be shortlisted
* Much will depend of his trainer has got him fit
* SIR GRAHAM WADE looks good to me after 12 runs

Selection

TESTOSTERONE 9/4

On paper I think CAVALEIRO e/w is arguably the safe
runner but maybe the least likely of the big three to be
produced at his best fit and ready. SIR GRAHAM WADE
has a good chance here but is very short. Whilst there
are no older mares winning I'm going to take a chance
on TESTOSTERONE. You dont see many Million dollar
fillies in these races. Her last Campaign was horrible
and there are excuses with bad sinus problems and
other factors. This is a horse Ed Dunlop will be very
keen to fullfill her potential. The long break will have
done the power of good. Lets face it she was hardly
likely to have won at Royal Ascot last year as a filly
on her seasonal debut. I hated her chance when she
went to the Lancashire Oaks after a dismal race run
at Ascot. She wasnt fit on her last run. I think there's
a good chance she is the class horse and I fancy her
in the full knowledge there are safer profiles here. I
do feel the sensible bet may be an each way double.



C a t t e r i c k 3.50

13/8 Hit The Lights 9/4 Bapak Muda
13/2 Red Style 15/2 Whatwehavewehold, 10/1 My Claire
25/1 Script.

This is a 6f maiden for all aged horses and a viscious
frame to the race. Catterick have had 11 renewals of
this race and 10 winners were seasonal debutant 3yo's
who came from their 2yo maidens. That would be an
obvious pointer to BAPAK MUDA. I can't ignore him.
With HIT THE LIGHTS's profile flawed I liked him best.

Selection

BAPAK MUDA 9/4



N o t t i n g h a m 4.10

9/2 Benzanno, 13/2 Uppercut, 13/2 Weapon Of Choice
8/1 Discression, 8/1 Gloriam, 8/1 President Lincoln
10/1 Maverik, 10/1 Shavansky, 10/1 Unex Michelangelo
12/1 Extraterrestrial, 14/1 Muffin Mcleay, 16/1 Imperial Djay 16/1 Osteopathic Remedy.

This is a difficult 8f handicap for 0-94 rated horses.
I have to oppose both OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY and
SHAVANSKY as 9yo seasonal debutants. I dont see
MUFFIN MCLEAY improving enough. I couldnt bet
IMPERIAL DJAY from 6f . PRESIDENT LINCOLN ran
over 7f this year. I wasn't sold on his profile doing
that. EXTRATERRESTRIAL has had a run this year
but as a 9 year old I would want another one and
I still wouldnt be convinced he was ready to win.
MAVERIK is unsafe exposed and absent 52 days.
He has a career high mark and comes from a run
in France on the Ice and its anyones guess what
to expect from him. GLORIAM ran well last time
but he was a 50/1 chance and he's up in class so
still has plenty to prove and I'd prefer more runs.

* I cant rule out the following
* They all have average acceptable profiles
* WEAPON OF CHOICE - UPPERCUT
* DISCRESSION - UNEX MICHELANGELO

* BENZANNO won first time out this year
* He's just about shortlistable with some reservations
* I'd have liked a bit less weight
* I'd prefer a lighter raced 4yo doing that
* I think BENZANNO is the obvious saver here
* No obvious selection here but I will risk Uppercut

Selection

UPPERCUT 5/1

BENZANNO - Optional Saver 11/4




C a t t e r i c k 4.20

11/4 Mujaadel, 9/2 Mick Slates, 5/1 Viking Warrior
7/1 Snow Bay, 7/1 Steel Stockholder
8/1 Summer Dancer, 12/1 Mutafaakir
16/1 The Blue Banana, 20/1 Outlaw Torn.

* This is a 7f handicap for 0-72 rated horses
* I dont want older debutants aged 7 or more here
* SNOW BAY - SUMMER DANCER are rejected
* THE BLUE BANANA is a 4yo debutant
* I'd have prefered a lighter raced 4yo
* MICK SLATES has an unimpressive profile
* As a 4yo up in trip with 1 run this year he is wrong
* I needed a much better last run to match him
* MUJAADEL won last time out
* He is well handicapped on his best form
* He is an 8yo though and he lacks a recent run
* Absent almost a month after that win worries me
* Especially as this is a stronger race
* VIKING WARRIOR is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* There are a couple of winners like him
* Not keen all his wins come in June and after
* WIthout much backclass I wasnt convinced

* STEEL STOCKHOLDER could have enough class
* I wouldnt have turned down more run this year
* There are flawed profiles below him in the weights
* I just felt he ought to have enough class to go well

Selection

STEEL STOCKHOLDER



N o t t i n g h a m 4.40

This is an interesting race as although a handicap we
have an odds on favourite with SINGERSONGWRITER.
She is a filly. She has raced only once in a maiden so
lacks experience and has topweight. That said she is
from a strong stable and is in the 1000 guineas and it
is obvious her handicap mark of 74 is lenient. I'm not
going to bet here. I ran SINGERSONGWRITER's profile
and found 7 horses trying what she is doing. These 7
fillies came 2 3 3 7 W 9 9. There was a winner from
them and although that was at Kempton on the sand
its enough evidence for me to treat her with respect.
I'd only oppose her with a bad profile and whilst it is
not a strong profile it certainly isnt bad enough either.
It tells me she can win so I'll let her do that unbacked.




C a t t e r i c k 4.50

* No time to do this 12f handicap
* I ran just the two profiles
* ARIZONA JOHN is stronger than THE FUN CRUSHER
* My angles tell me I should expect him to beat him
* Whether thats enough to win the race I dont know
* ARIZONA JOHN to win the match bet is an option



C a t t e r i c k 5.50

4/1 Dartrix, 6/1 Boucher Garcon, 6/1 Chosen One
8/1 Here Now And Why, 10/1 Choc´a´moca, 10/1 Tuibama
10/1 Wicked Wilma, 12/1 Mr Mo Jo, 14/1 Lesley´s Choice
14/1 Pavers Star, 20/1 Lucky Mark, 25/1 Sophie´s Beau
33/1 Dubai Rythm.

* This is a 5f Apprentice Handicap
* There are 22 similar races in April
* Horses absent a Month or more struggled
* They had a miserable 2-146 record
* Those aged 5 or more were 0-83
* Those that were exposed were 0-98
* That leads me to oppose the following horses
* SOPHIE´S BEAU - CHOC´A´MOCA
* HERE NOW AND WHY - MR MO JO
* DUBAI RYTHM - Weak profile and inexperienced
* PAVERS STAR was beaten too far 4 days ago
* WICKED WILMA is a 9yo mare
* I think she needs more runs this season
* TUIBAMA doesnt look fit enough yet
* LUCKY MARK is hard to fancy at 6f
* DARTRIX is a 4yo filly winning last time
* Fillies underperform in these races
* With 1 run this year I wanted a safer profile
* BOUCHER GARCON won this last year
* I respect him but he is older now
* I wanted another run this season for him
* I can shortlist him but he isnt convincing
* I'd also worry the ground was a bit quick for him

Shortlist

* LESLEY´S CHOICE is shortlistable
* Much depends on how he gets on back on grass
* All his turf wins have come on right handed tracks
* He's unsafe but he has ran well left handed on turf
* I think CHOSEN ONE is a slightly more likely winner
* LESLEY´S CHOICE has more backclass though
* He has an extra run this season and is a bigger price

* CHOSEN ONE - All winners aged 8 ran within a week
* He does that and ran well enough last time
* If he has a flaw its a lack of backclass
* He is fitter than most and should go close

Selection

LESLEYS CHOICE 10/1 Win Bet

CHOSEN ONE 3/1 Saver Bet

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