1 Bet Today


Wolverhampton 5.55


DANEGLOW 5/1 Win Bet

TWIST AND TWIRL 7/2 Saver Bet




Daneglow 5/1 Hills Corals PPower Spbet
Daneglow 5/1 Skybet Tote Boyles Betfred
Daneglow 9/2 Bet365 Stan J Ladbrokes

Twist And Twirl 4/1 Hills VC Betfred
Twist And Twirl 4/1 Bet365 Tote





M e s s a g e C o n t e n t

Happy enough with today's message and it results
go our way it could be a good one. Cheltenham is
a fascinating card and I like a few there. There are
some good All Weather races as well. I'm leaving
Bangor alone. Too much good stuff elsewhere and
I didn't have the time or the inclination to dig deep
there when I liked other cards more. Hopefully the
Top of the Message has the right sort of races today.




M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s


Cheltenham has 7 Previews

Southwell has 3 Previews

Wolverhampton has 2 Previews

I like Three today


Southwell 1.30

NEIGHBOURHOOD 13/8


Cheltenham 3.45

DOCTOR HARPER 7/4


Wolverhampton 5.55

DANEGLOW 9/2 Win Bet

TWIST AND TWIRL 7/2 Saver

The big dilemma is how to stake these horses.
An annoying thing has been shortening prices.
To start with NEIGHBOURHOOD was clipped to
13/8 from 2/1. DOCTOR HARPER has gone from
5/2 down to 7/4 and this has reduced options.


Southwell 1.30 -NEIGHBOURHOOD 13/8
Cheltenham 3.45 - DOCTOR HARPER 7/4

I strongly considered two separate bets here

Win on Both and an Each Way Double

Alternately the Each Way Double


The problem with this bet is that I would need
both to win to have a very good day. My Stats
are screaming DANEGLOW at me and there is
room for a saver as well. The dilemma here is
whether we should get involved in a Cess Pitt
of a surface that many trainers are boycotting
and in such a desperate badly framed maiden
anything could happen. In the end I bit the
bullet and decided that the prices were hardly
big enough and I had to go to Wolverhampton.




S i r e s A n d S y s t e m s

Going with a System today

* November and December
* All aged Maiden races over 5f
* 36 similar races in these two months
* 35 of the 36 winners were 3 year olds
* Horses aged 4 or more were just 1-95
* The only winner was Co Dependant (2010)
* That race was dominated by older horses
* The 1-95 record includes losers at these prices
* 5/1 7/2 5/1 11/2 7/4 3/1 11/8 5/1 11/2
* 4/1 3/1 11/4 5/1 5/1 11/4 5/2 3/1 11/2

Wolverhampton 5.55 - BUSY BIMBO fails this
Wolverhampton 5.55 - MID YORKSHIRE GOLF fails this
Wolverhampton 5.55 - STONEACRE HULL fails this






T h u r s d a y s R e v i e w

An excellent account bet winner yesterday
but I was right in that it came at the cost of
the bottom of the message which struggled.
When the bottom of the message is singing
at it's best it is because I have focussed far
more on the message quality and this does
reduce the time I can spend on looking for
account bets. When we have no bet spells
the bottom of the message has conditions
to shine and this often carries the service.

An ideal scenario of winning account bets
and a high class bottom of the message is
only possible consistently with either less
racing or more hours in the day. It always
has been a difficult balancing act. I would
not say yesterdays bottom message was a
disaster but it wasn't impressive and I had
spent a lot of time looking for a main bet.
Thankfully GOLD PATROL won easily and
beat the Sire's and Systems negative too.
With an account bet winner a lovely day.




P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



S o u t h w e l l 12.20

9/4 Westminster, 3/1 Outback Warrior
3/1 Queenie´s Home, 7/1 Rio Ranger, 7/1 Ventura Reef
14/1 La Paiva, 33/1 Alba Verde, 33/1 Belle Peinture
100/1 Skinny Latte.

* This is a 2yo maiden over 7f
* I don't think this can be sorted easily
* OUTBACK WARRIOR has been absent 119 days
* I found 5 similar winners that won at Lingfield
* None have won after a break at Southwell though
* There were 24 of these Southwell maidens
* The longest absent winner was 46 days in these races
* I looked at every Southwell maiden in December
* Thats at any distance for 2 year olds
* Male horses absent 90 + days were 0-27
* OUTBACK WARRIOR fails that which worries me
* On this track I don't really want a long absence
* WESTMINSTER could have been the alternative
* Great stable and he will be fancied
* It is just his draw that worries me in Stall 1
* In 2012 there were 74 races over 7f with 8 + runners
* Horses drawn in Stall 1 had a weak 1-74 record
* It is by far the worst draw and it's a problem
* VENTURA REEF is unraced and may pop up
* I don't really want an unraced 2yo here
* RIO RANGER is also unsafe as an unraced filly
* QUEENIE´S HOME could be the safest option
* I don't mind her profile from a 0-75 handicap
* Her sire's Southwell 2 year olds have a 3-6 record
* Far from a good thing but seems to offer the most


Selection

QUEENIE´S HOME 7/4

Win Bet





C h e l t e n h a m 12.30

5/6 Oscar Whisky, 5/4 Wonderful Charm
14/1 Close House, 25/1 Red Riverman
66/1 Captain Ocana.

* This is a Novice Chase over 2m 5f.
* It looks a mouth-watering match
* Both horses have strong positives
* I don't see a clear edge that I would trust
* I am going with OSCAR WHISKY
* My only reason is proven Cheltenham form
* Hopefully that will make the difference

Selection - OSCAR WHISKY






S o u t h w e l l 12.55

Evs Madame Mirasol, 11/8 Our Gabrial, 6/1 Black Vale.

* This is a 7f Nursery
* Tiny field and just running their profiles
* BLACK VALE was beaten recently in a 6f seller
* No winners of similar races had his profile
* OUR GABRIAL is male and from an 8f Nursery
* He has 7-8-9 runs and running within 2 weeks
* He was beaten under 8 lengths last time
* Horses running within this profile were 3-7
* Solid profile but he has no Southwell form
* MADAME MIRASOL has Southwell form and is 1-1 here
* She's a filly from a 7f Nursery
* Fillies won 4 races doing this all had under 7 runs
* Those with 7 or more runs like her were 0-23
* I looked at every filly with 7 or more runs
* Those not running within 10 days were 1-41
* MADAME MIRASOL's profile is far from persuasive
* There is one dilemma here to consider
* OUR GABRIAL has easily the strongest profile
* He has no Southwell form and Madame Mirasol does
* Do we take the profile horse or the Southwell horse
* On this occasion I prefer OUR GABRIAL at the prices

Selection - OUR GABRIAL 6/4




C h e l t e n h a m 1.05

5/1 King Massini, 6/1 Richmond, 7/1 Hit The Headlines
9/1 Atlanta Falcon, 9/1 Vif Argent, 12/1 Al Alfa
12/1 Friendly Society, 12/1 Have You Seen Me
12/1 Max Bygraves, 14/1 Ballymoat, 16/1 Donnas Palm
16/1 Marley Roca, Diamond Frontier, 20/1 Entertain Me
20/1 Finger Onthe Pulse, 20/1 Overclear
25/1 Owen Glendower.

* This is a 2m 5f Conditional jockeys Handicap Chase
* Long history to this complicated looking race
* I am taking out horses aged 11 or more
* Only 1 of the last 19 renewals went to a horse aged 10 +
* MAX BYGRAVES is out as a 10yo debutant
* HAVE YOU SEEN ME is out aged 10 from a 2m race
* Horses from 2m 2f or shorter are 0-19 in this race
* VIF ARGENT fails that and I don't want a 4yo anyway
* HIT THE HEADLINES fails this and is unsafe
* He comes from a Beginners Chase
* No past winners did that or came from a Novice Chase
* 12 of the last 13 winners ran within 6 weeks
* FRIENDLY SOCIETY has 58 days absence
* I think there are safer options than him
* MARLEY ROCA has 11st 12lbs
* None of the past 18 winners had that weight
* He's only ever won at a Sharp Stratford before
* DONNAS PALM doesn't offer enough at this distance

Possibles

* Horses from recent Novice Handicap Chases are 0-11
* They finished 5 PU 2 4 4 8 F 3 3 12 3
* None won but quite a few went
* I think we have to consider these horses
* KING MASSINI comes from a Novice Handicap Chases
* He only has 2 Chase starts though
* There were two winners with 2 and 0 Chase starts
* Both were 6 year olds though and he is 7
* BALLYMOAT is 6 and does the same with 2 runs
* Thats the same profile as the 2009 winner
* That horse didn't come from a Novice Handicap though
* Also bothers me all his form is on sharp tracks
* ATLANTA FALCON is from a Novice Handicap Chase
* Good chance just not convinced he's well treated

Shortlist

* AL ALFA was looking progressive recently
* Unlucky when falling 3 runs ago
* His last two runs were disappointing
* That does worry me about him
* Good chance he went off too hard at Stratford
* One bad mistake killed his chance at Ascot
* Forgive him those two runs and he's a player

* RICHMOND has a good overall profile
* Lightly raced chaser in good hands
* If he jumps well and acts on the track he's a player

Selection

AL ALFA 16/1 Win Bet

RICHMOND 7/1 Win Bet




S o u t h w e l l 1.30

5/2 Neighbourhood, 7/2 The Young Master
5/1 Generous Dream, 5/1 Ice Apple, 10/1 Daldini
10/1 Generous George, 12/1 Aureate, 14/1 Russian Link
40/1 Sings Poet, 66/1 Until The Man.

This is a 2m Handicap for 0-60 rated horses. Not my
kind of race really. Just picking off a few horses I'd
want to avoid. RUSSIAN LINK looks all wrong. I do
not like UNTIL THE MAN or SINGS POET either. We
have 39 of these 2m handicaps in December. None
of the winners were absent as long as AUREATE so
as a 9yo I have to avoid him. GENEROUS GEORGE
looks too inexperienced from 12f. I have big fitness
problems with DALDINI an 11yo with only the 1 run
since last May. Female horses won 3 of the 39 races
and none of these were either absent as long as or
beaten as far as GENEROUS DREAM was last time.

* ICE APPLE is a mare and none aged 5 have won
* I don't like her lack of backclass either

* THE YOUNG MASTER - Neutral profile from hurdles
* Has to prove he can stay 2 miles here
* His Sires not had a winner over 13f or more yet

* NEIGHBOURHOOD - strong chance if he stays 2m
* His sire's runners at 1m 5f or more are only 1-33
* This horse has placed in 2m races here and Chepstow
* I think he will win with the recent race

Selection

NEIGHBOURHOOD 13/8






C h e l t e n h a m 1.40

I am bailing out of this Handicap Hurdle. Partly
because there are no 4 year olds and that does
influence the angles about horses from a novice
hurdle or a novice handicap. Basically there are
too many dead ends. I think there are about six
or seven strong contenders with little separating
them. I did notice that the horses that had raced
this season when aged 5 or more all raced more
than once this season. That just puts me off both
LYVIUS. I'd be guessing if I went for anything to
win. The race has beaten me. No Selection.





C h e l t e n h a m 2.10

3/1 Theatre Guide, 6/1 Knockara Beau
6/1 Prince Of Pirates, 13/2 Monbeg Dude, 7/1 Duke Of Lucca
8/1 Quentin Collonges, 10/1 Emperor´s Choice
10/1 Pigeon Island, 16/1 Aimigayle, 16/1 Burton Port.

* This is a Handicap Chase over 3m 1f +
* Tight race that rarely throws up a surprise
* In 15 renewals horses starting 12/1 or more are 0-81
* BURTON PORT doesn't look capable of a shock
* Horses aged 10 or more are 0-38 in this race
* KNOCKARA BEAU is 10 and fails that
* PIGEON ISLAND is 10 and not my first choice
* AIMIGAYLE is also rejected aged 10
* EMPEROR´S CHOICE is 6 and down from 3m 3f
* He's taking a big rise in class today
* I wanted more runs this year to consider him


Possibles

* DUKE OF LUCCA - Great chance if he can perform here
* He has won here but only a very soft small runner race
* I don't think this track suits him as well as some
* It does put me off him a bit

* THEATRE GUIDE was 3rd in the Hennessy
* That will take a lot of recovering from
* Many December races have Hennessy horses in them
* Several show bad records from these horses
* Hard race at Newbury and little recovery time
* This race shows a poor record
* The 1997 winner (Yorkshire Gale) came from the Hennessy
* He had an easy race in the 1997 Hennessy though
* When he won this race in 1997 just 5 horses ran
* Since then horses from the Hennessy were 0-18
* He could win but a hard race last time worries me

* QUENTIN COLLONGES ran this year over 3m 4f
* MONBEG DUDE ran this year over 3m 4f
* Two winners did that in a 2-44 record
* The 2010 winner came from the same race
* The 2010 winner won that 3m 4f race
* QUENTIN COLLONGES didn't and unseated rider
* It was a good seasonal return but he isn't well treated
* Today will probably take a near career best
* I would have preferred another run this year

* MONBEG DUDE was 4th in the same race
* I like it that he has another run this year
* Not too bad a profile just two nagging doubts
* Will his jumping hold up as there were recent concerns
* Will the ground be too fast for him

* PRINCE OF PIRATES is a seasonal debutant
* There are 3 seasonal debutant winners
* Two of these were trained by Nicky Henderson
* He trains PRINCE OF PIRATES so he is respected
* Much depends on how this track suits him
* He appeals more to me than the others

Selection

PRINCE OF PIRATES 11/2 Win Bet
MONBEG DUDE 15/2 Saver Bet





C h e l t e n h a m 2.40

3/1 Keep On Track, 4/1 Any Currency
6/1 Chicago Grey, 8/1 Shalimar Fromentro
8/1 Sire Collonges, 12/1 Imperial Circus
16/1 Pasquini Rouge, 16/1 Quercy Du Manoir
16/1 Taiga Des Chambres, 16/1 Zest For Life
20/1 Jacks Island, Qulinton, 25/1 Save My Blushes.

The Cross Country Chase is worth a look. Much
depends on whether you oppose all the younger
horses in this race and I have decided to do that.

* Since 1997 Cheltenham had 35 of these races
* Thats at any time of year over the cross country course
* Horses under 8 have a poor record
* Horses aged 5 are 0-1
* Horses aged 6 are 0-24
* Horses aged 7 are 1-51

* KEEP ON TRACK is only a 6yo
* He may turn out to be a future star by Enda Bolger
* He is surely priced up on trainer reputation though
* Aged 6 and no form here he is rejected
* PASQUINI ROUGE has to go as a 5 year old
* Horses aged 7 have not done well
* There was a 7yo winner in this race
* It's the only time a 7yo has won one of these races here
* SHALIMAR FROMENTRO is not for me aged 7
* IMPERIAL CIRCUS is also rejected as a 7yo
* SIRE COLLONGES is also rejected as a 7yo
* QUERCY DU MANOIR is impossible to read
* All his career has been spent running abroad
* With no track form he isn't for me

Shortlist

* ANY CURRENCY and CHICAGO GREY look safest
* ANY CURRENCY ran well last time out in a Cross Country
* Beaten 6 lengths he has to be respected
* There is a nagging doubt he doesn't truly stay
* CHICAGO GREY was just behind him that day
* He was having his first run of the season then
* His trainer said he would need the run
* He also made a bad mistake which knocked him back
* This is a Cross Country Handicap
* The weights do favour ANY CURRENCY
* I am ignoring that as I prefer CHICAGO GREY
* I think he could outstay Any Currency

Selection

CHICAGO GREY 5/1

Each Way




Cheltenham 3.15

3/1 Southfield Theatre, 9/2 Return Spring
5/1 Thomas Crapper, 8/1 Angles Hill, 10/1 Mister Dillon
10/1 Sunnyhillboy, 12/1 Destroyer Deployed
12/1 Edgardo Sol, 14/1 Abruzzi, 14/1 So Fine
20/1 Red Not Blue.

Not enough time to do the 3m handicap hurdle properly.
I did a quick scan and won't be surprised if the winners
in the first 3 in the betting. Both SOUTHFIELD THEATRE
and RETURN SPRING come from the best trial race that
has provided 5 recent winners. What bothers me most
about SOUTHFIELD THEATRE is that if you look at past
renewals of this race horses with 11st 8lbs or more have
a 0-17 record and he has 11st 10lbs. The clever bet here
could be to consider him for a place in a split stake bet.
Horses that won the best trial race at Cheltenham just as
RETURN SPRING did have a 3-7 record. All three of the
winners had a second run that year and he doesn't. Not
quite convinced about these two horses. They both have
one hidden flaw. SOUTHFIELD THEATRE's weight and a
lack of a second run for RETURN SPRING. Perhaps this
is best left to either ANGLES HILL or ABRUZZI who have
reasonably solid profiles. Not going to go with a selection.
Just running through a few issues and if I did go with a
bet it probably would be the win-place split stake bet.
The Place bet can be on SOUTHFIELD THEATRE 10/11.





C h e l t e n h a m 3.45

2/1 Garde La Victoire, 5/2 Ballyalton
5/2 Doctor Harper, 7/1 Cocktails At Dawn
20/1 Hawaii Five Nil, 25/1 Fond Memory
66/1 Ballyhooley Boy, 100/1 Ghost Of A Smile
250/1 Modeligo.

* This is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 1f
* I looked at the last 15 renewals
* There look to be 4 fancied horses and 5 outsiders
* BALLYALTON isn't safe for me
* Horses down from 2m 4f were 1-25
* That winner (Tidal Bay) was younger
* He was lighter raced over hurdles
* He dropped from 20f not 22f like BALLYALTON
* Most recent past winners had fewer runs than him
* BALLYALTON has some flaws for me
* GARDE LA VICTOIRE is a 4yo
* He won a recent novice hurdle
* Horses in this race doing this were 1-6
* Can't rule him out but that winner had 1 hurdle run
* COCKTAILS AT DAWN - No winners were like him
* None ran over hurdles last season
* DOCTOR HARPER is 5 and won a Novice Hurdle last time
* He is a Male horse and has 2 previous hurdle runs
* Horses in this race with this profile are 3-6
* Thats comfortably the best profile
* 2 of the 3 winners came from the same Exeter race

Selection

DOCTOR HARPER 7/4

Win Bet





Wolverhampton 4.25

6/4 Trinity Lorraine, 7/4 Nice Arty, 8/1 Hasta La Vista
8/1 Touche De Rouge, 12/1 Big Kenny, 25/1 Flying Author
25/1 Sarlat.

This is a Nursery over an extended 9f. I wasn't sure
that TRINITY LORRAINE would stay this far being a
Dark Angel filly. So far the sire's had a 2yo win over
the extended 8f here but none any further. Having a
recent 7f win I'm going to avoid TRINITY LORRAINE.
I think NICE ARTY is the safer bet and may well win.

Selection - NICE ARTY 13/8




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 5.55

9/4 Moss Quito, 3/1 Twist And Twirl, 6/1 Busy Bimbo
6/1 Stoneacre Hull, 7/1 Daneglow, 9/1 Mid Yorkshire Golf
12/1 Lexi´s Beauty

* This is a 5f Maiden for all aged horses
* The record of 4 year olds is awful with 1 from 95 winning
* I have used this for today's Sire's and Systems

The 4yo statistic puts me off MID YORKSHIRE GOLF who
is a filly and who also has to come from 7f. With exactly
the same problem is STONEACRE HULL another 4yo filly
coming down from a 7f race. BUSY BIMBO is out as She
is other 4 year old and given she has lost all 47 times in
her frustrating career we should look elsewhere. This is
now a choice of choosing between 4 shortlisted horses.

* MOSS QUITO is absent 510 days
* We last saw him in a 2yo seller hardly a good sign
* The longest absent winner was 237 days
* If he wins it will be the longest absent winner
* I looked at all maiden races over any trip in December
* I looked at horses aged 3 absent 8 months or more
* There was a 9-147 record
* All 9 winners had either 1-2-3 career starts
* Those with 4 or more runs were 0-29
* MOSS QUITO fails that with just 5 runs
* I should look elsewhere


* LEXI´S BEAUTY is a 3yo filly
* She has lost 14 times now and comes from a handicap
* I can't match her from a Class 6 handicap
* In her last 3 runs she has only beaten 2 of the runners
* Just 1 run since June I can't have her


Shortlist

* TWIST AND TWIRL has a competent profile
* I see her as a big threat

* DANEGLOW is a 3yo filly with 9 runs
* I looked at 3yo fillies from 5f maidens with 8 + runs
* There was a very interesting 5-11 record

TWIST AND TWIRL v DANEGLOW Part 3

* They met two runs ago
* TWIST AND TWIRL (3rd) beat Daneglow (4th)
* They met last time out as well
* DANEGLOW (3rd) beat TWIST AND TWIRL (5th)

Its complicated. My angles say DANEGLOW is the
bet. I think he should have led last time but didn't
because of the draw. I think TWIST AND TWIRL is
better than her last run as she had the worst draw
and had just 1 run in months and assuming she's
able to improve from that does look a threat.

Selection

DANEGLOW 5/1 Win Bet

TWIST AND TWIRL 7/2 Saver Bet


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