No Full Bet today
1 Top of the Message Bet
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5 Mini Previews


Today's Bet


Ascot 5.35

Split Stake Bet


SOVIET ROCK 12/1 Each Way

NUMBER ONE LONDON 12/1 Win Bet

SPILLWAY 12/1 Win Bet




* If Staking £10 on the race

* £3 Each Way SOVIET ROCK 12/1

* £2 Win NUMBER ONE LONDON 12/1

* £2 Win SPILLWAY 12/1





I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Ascot is two days down and not the ideal start for
us. I messed up on both days with the top part of
the message and that's taken the shine away from
the bottom of the message which has been better
and has coped well with this ferocious meeting.

Another heavy Ascot day today. It casts a shadow
on the rest of the message as I don't get any time
to do the supporting cards properly. We expected
heavy rain at Ascot but that hasn't arrived in any
significance. Today is a mixture of races I should
be able to do something with and a few races to
simply leave alone. Dificult top of message today.


A S C O T

I feel I have lost an option in the Norfolk Stakes at
2.30pm as I fancied COACH HOUSE but he's been
hammered in the betting and is too short now 2/1.


The only other Ascot race to give me confidence
was the King George V Stakes at 5.35pm. This is
a very interesting statistical race. I would argue
that if todays race follows the history of the past
renewals of the race then these horses stand out.


SOVIET ROCK 12/1 Each Way

NUMBER ONE LONDON 12/1 Win Bet

SPILLWAY 12/1 Win Bet


I have staked all 3 and given guidance to stakes.

Several game plans here. I wanted to hit back at
the top of the message and put is in profit. I want
to bet one Each Way because we have 4 places
available and SOVIET ROCK offered me the most.
Not only do I want 2 savere but I want to stake it
so that should the savers win not only do we win
properly on the bet we also win enough to cover
the losses from the first two losing bets we have
had and the prices in this bet just allow us to do it.





W e d n e s d a y 's R e v i e w

I could easily have rejected the Camelot bet given
the price so I am very annoyed with myself. It was
just about the only mistake I made there yesterday.
Like all Camelot supporters we were relying on his
trainer to have him ready to win on the day and it
was wrong to do that. Some blamed the ride but I
don't see it that way. He wasn't good enough and
may have not handled the ground or failed to get
over his winter troubles. I was more annoyed with
myself than the horse. Carbon Copy of yesterday.
I went with a poor bet yet had success in the rest
of the message. I played the first two races safely
and broke level on both races. We had the winner
in the 5pm and like Tuesday that was enough for
a decent bottom of the message. Its the bets that
I went with at the Top that were the mistakes. I'd
not be bothered if it had been a win bet but that
each way bet under the odds is so annoying and
why I have said before that whilst they can be a
great bet at times the downside is too costly and
damages confidence. I deserve all I got yesterday.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S




A s c o t 2.30

3/1 Coach House, 5/1 No Nay Never, 6/1 Coulsty
7/1 Saayerr, 8/1 Eccleston, Green Door, 12/1 Emirates Flyer
12/1 Legend Rising, 12/1 Wind Fire, 20/1 Ambiance
20/1 Ifwecan, 20/1 Royal Mezyan, 66/1 Oriental Relation
100/1 Extreme Supreme.

* The Norfolk Stakes is not a good trends race
* You want a last time out winner which doesnt help much
* I looked at all recent winners
* Looked at the last Racing Post Rating they achieved
* On the last race before winning this
* 91 91 91 88 99 90 95 92 103 101 99
* 10 of the last winners recorded at least a 90
* They all recorded at least a 88 ratings
* WIND FIRE only has an 82 rating and a bad draw
* GREEN DOOR hasnt done enough with 66 and 85 ratings
* EMIRATES FLYER only recorded a figure of 80
* Coming from a Bath maiden it isn't enough
* ECCLESTON only recorded a RPR of 84
* Thats much less than all recent past winners
* Given that was an Auction Maiden I look elsewhere
* LEGEND RISING won a 6f Novice last time
* With 3 runs he isn't like any winners
* The 1997 winner did it with 4 runs though
* LEGEND RISING has been rejected by Richard Hughes
* SAAYERR comes from a Novice race over 5f
* He has no form beyond a Class 4 race
* He has two career starts
* Male horses with that profile were 0-24 in this race
* SAAYERR is not matched to any winners

Shortlist

* NO NAY NEVER - Australian raider must be respected
* He probably wont want any rain though

* COULSTY has done enough to shortlist

* COACH HOUSE looks a serious runner
* With a clear edge on ratings I think he can win
* NO NAY NEVER and COULSTY are the dangers
* Either could offer Saver options for those wanting that

Selection

COACH HOUSE 11/4





R i p o n 2.45

6/4 Last Sovereign, 3/1 Jessie´s Spirit, 9/2 Tajneed
6/1 Beckermet, 6/1 Red Cape, 33/1 Chester´slittlegem
66/1 Vogarth.

* This is a 6f claimer
* LAST SOVEREIGN would be my selection
* Not entirely bomb proof as a profile
* His Positives far outweight his negatives
* LAST SOVEREIGN ought to win this



W a r w i c k 2.55

* This is a small field maiden
* I liked HASBAH best but the market disagrees
* Assuming all things equal I dont see why he cant win
* I dont know enough about the race to get interested




A s c o t 3.05

5/2 Alive Alive Oh, 5/1 Winsili
6/1 Just Pretending, 7/1 Elik, 10/1 Riposte, 12/1 Waila
20/1 Fersah, 20/1 Gertrude Versed, 25/1 Indigo Lady
50/1 Cocktail Queen, 50/1 Hollowina.

* The Ribblesdale is for 3yo Fillies over 12 furlongs.
* GERTRUDE VERSED comes from the Oaks
* 5 of the last 22 winners came from the Oaks
* They had 4 5 8 4 6 runs and 2 2 3 2 3 runs that season
* GERTRUDE VERSED has already had 4 runs this year
* He has been a bit busier than i'd like
* Horses with 1 run this year worry me
* There hasn't been a winner do that in 19 years
* INDIGO LADY fails that and comes from a Group 3
* WAILA fails that and comes from a maiden
* Horses from Maidens have struggled
* They have not won this since 1989
* Since 1990 all 44 that tried have been beaten
* WAILA is rejected because of this
* RIPOSTE is not right coming from a Maiden
* FERSAH is another runner from a maiden
* I can't make a case for her because of that
* WINSILI has just 1 run this year
* We know its 19 years since a horse won doing this
* With stamina doubts she doesn't offer me enough
* ELIK won a 10f Listed Class race last time
* Horses with similar profiles were 1-16
* It's not the safest of profiles here
* It took him 5 runs to win and that was last time
* I just question whether she has the class
* Any rain may not help either
* ALIVE ALIVE OH won a 10f Listed race last time
* We know Horses with similar profiles were 1-16
* Not a strong profile and She isnt proven over 12f
* Her Sire's had just 2 winners at 12f both in low class
* She's relaxed and may stay but its no certainty
* JUST PRETENDING comes from a Mile race
* That worries me with very few winners doing that
* 1999 winner Fairy Queen came from 8.5f
* That horse was lighter raced than she is
* JUST PRETENDING looks a bit unsafe to me

Shortlist

The ideal scenario for me would have been heavy rain
and going with THE LARK who had the best profile but
that has not happened and THE LARK is a non runner.

Thats killed the race for me as I know have to side with
horses I dont particularly fancy and that are not safe.

* ALIVE ALIVE OH - Average profile has stamina to prove
* JUST PRETENDING - Chance but stamina to prove
* WINSILI - I now have to consider her more


Selection

WINSILI 9/2

Each Way






A s c o t 3.45

9/2 Estimate, 6/1 Rite Of Passage, 7/1 Saddler´s Rock
7/1 Simenon, 10/1 High Jinx, Times Up, 12/1 Colour Vision
16/1 Altano, 16/1 Earl Of Tinsdal, 16/1 Last Train
16/1 Top Trip, 20/1 Vadamar, 25/1 Biographer
33/1 El Salvador, 33/1 Model Pupil, 33/1 Number Theory
33/1 Repeater, 40/1 Aaim To Prosper.

* The Ascot Gold Cup is a Group 1 race over 2m 4f.
* There is no doubt horses aged 4-5-6 have the best record
* Yeats did win this as a 7yo and 8yo but he was exceptional
* You have to back to 1993 for the last 7yo winner
* The one before that was back in 1929
* I dont want older horses or exposed horses
* Very few exposed horses win the race.
* Celeric did it (1997) and Yeats in 2009 his 4th win
* The last winner aged 8 or more was in 1900
* RITE OF PASSAGE has to go as a 9yo first time out
* TIMES UP is not safe as an exposed 7yo
* He has had problems and I prefer others
* ALTANO wouldnt interest me as a 7yo either
* BIOGRAPHER is out as no winners came from handicaps.
* COLOUR VISION won this race last year
* He was unexposed last year and came here after a win
* This year he's exposed and not in the same form
* There was a much smaller field last year when he won
* TOP TRIP wouldnt be first choice from a 14f race
* Not convinced about his stamina and he wont want rain
* EARL OF TINSDAL doesnt do enough for me
* Too many stamina doubts on his pedigree
* ESTIMATE is a 4yo filly
* Since 1986 only 1 female horse has won
* That was a 6 year old back in 1991
* There has only been 9 fillies aged 4 running
* They finished 12th 15th 10th 12th 9th 9th 5th 10th
* I'm sure she is improving but she needs to
* Just 6 runs is very inexperienced as well
* ESTIMATE looks unsafe with no winners like her

Shortlist

* VADAMAR is not easy to understand or commit to
* His official rating demands he is respected at 33/1

* SIMENON is exposed with 29 previous wins
* The most exposed winners had 22 and 23 previous runs
* He won the 2m 4f handicap at this meeting last year
* Doing that with Topweight was a high class effort
* Having 29 runs is my only objection to him

* LAST TRAIN - Keep him on side as lightly raced 4yo
* He is a good price and only one main worry
* The past 4yo winners tended to be 1st or 2nd last time

* HIGH JINX comes from a Good trial race
* As a 5yo I had one concern
* All past winners his age had more runs that season
* I would also have prefered a better last run

* SADDLER´S ROCK placed in last years race
* The ground went against him last year
* He looks one of the strongest runners here
* Only worry is he missed his prep race
* Reassured by some many winners lightly raced that year

Selection

SADDLER´S ROCK 8/1

Each Way



A s c o t 4.25

* The Brittania is an 8f handicap for 3yo males
* There has been 20 renewals of this race since 1992
* Quick preview ending in a shortlist
* Throw out horses with Group 1-2 form
* Throw out horses coming from Listed or Group races
* Horses from 7f handicaps need a run within 2 weeks
* They also need under 7 career starts
* They also need 3 + runs this year
* Unless they have listed or group 3 form
* Horses from 8f handicaps must have under 7 runs
* They must have 1-2 runs this year and no more
* I haven't gone into any great detail in this race
* I ran a few profiles and shortlisted 4 horses
* CAPE PERON -MARKET TOWN - WON DIAMOND -ROCA TUMU
* Decided to split stake the 3 big priced horses and a saver
* Confidence here obviously low
* I have staked the race to £10 Mythicak Stakes

Selection

MARKET TOWN 20/1 £2.50 Each Way

WON DIAMOND 33/1 Win Bet £1 Win

ROCA TUMU 25/1 Win Bet £2 Win

CAPE PERON 7/1 Saver Bet £2 Win





R i p o n 4.35

On any other day this would have been a race I'd have
given full coverage to. Just the wrong race on the wrong
day because of the time it takes to do. All I can offer is a
quick 10 minute scan and running some profiles. Having
done that and chucked out the unnaceptable I was left
with AL FURAT -POLITBUREAU -PERTUIS as my shortlist.




A s c o t 5.00

7/2 Remote, 9/2 Chopin, 9/2 Indian Chief
5/1 Shikarpour, 15/2 Van Der Neer, 8/1 Elkaayed
12/1 Windhoek, 20/1 Kitten On The Run
20/1 Secret Number, 25/1 Centurius
25/1 Hoarding, 33/1 Ideal.

* This is a Group 3 for 3 year olds over 10f
* There are 13 renewals of this race
* All past winners had under 7 career starts
* HOARDING looks too exposed
* All past winners were Male
* There were 2 winners from handicaps
* Both won last time came from 10f races with 4 and 6 runs
* KITTEN ON THE RUN was beaten in a handicap
* No winners came from 8f handicaps
* REMOTE fails that and he has 3 runs
* No handicap winner won with just 3 runs
* Horses from 8f or shorter all had under 6 runs
* IDEAL - VAN DER NEER fail that
* No horse that ran this year raced just twice
* CENTURIUS fails that
* SHIKARPOUR also fails that

Shortlist

* ELKAAYED - No negtaive but not safe
* No winners came from non pattern conditions races

* The Dante is a good trial race for this
* Some of these come from there almost right

* SECRET NUMBER - not a negative but average profile

* WINDHOEK has a similar profile and similar comments
* I wanted a lighter season for both these horses

* INDIAN CHIEF comes from the Dante
* Not a bad profile I'd have liked another run
* It would worry me he is only a small horse

* CHOPIN didnt stay in the Derby
* The 2011 winner had a similar profile

Selection

SECRET NUMBER 20/1 Each Way

ELKAAYED 8/1 Win Bet






A s c o t 5.35

11/2 Bold Sniper, 15/2 Pether´s Moon, 8/1 Eshtiaal
10/1 Excellent Result, 10/1 Royal Skies, 12/1 Soviet Rock
12/1 Space Ship, 12/1 Spillway, 14/1 Number One London
16/1 Another Cocktail, 16/1 Pasaka Boy, 20/1 Blue Wave
20/1 Cap O´rushes, 20/1 Elidor, 20/1 Red Runaway
20/1 Salutation, 20/1 Shrewd, 25/1 Greeleys Love
33/1 Carry On Sydney.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 3 year olds rated 0-99
* There was one statistic that was very interesting
* It will be tested thoroughly today
* Look at horses in this race that come from handicaps
* 15 past winners did this and all came from Class 2-3
* Look at horses that come from Class 4 handicaps or lower
* All 76 horses that did this lost
* These strongly fancied horses all Fail this
* BOLD SNIPER - PETHER´S MOON
* ESHTIAAL - ROYAL SKIES
* CAP O´RUSHES is out with 1 run this season
* He is the one that has that and he has topweight
* 20 of the last 21 winners had no form in pattern class
* ANOTHER COCKTAIL is out from a Listed race
* ELIDOR is out from a Listed race
* The longest absence from any winner was 56 days in 2001
* SHREWD is out as a seasonal debutant
* It is likely the winner will have between 2-6 runs
* Only 4 of the last 24 winners had 7 or more runs
* All 4 of those winners ran within 2 weeks
* PASAKA BOY- BLUE WAVE fail that
* RED RUNAWAY - SPACE SHIP fail that
* GREELEYS LOVE didn't do enough last time
* SALUTATION is a bit too exposed
* CARRY ON SYDNEY isn't safe with his absence

Possibles

* EXCELLENT RESULT won a maiden last time
* Not too bad a profile but not as safe as I'd like
* All similar winners had much less weight

Shortlist

* RED RUNAWAY 33/1 is my fourth choice

* SPILLWAY is hard to read
* He has raced 4 times this season already
* Statistically I wanted a more recent run
* He only fails this by a small ammount
* Laid out for this race from April I liked him

* NUMBER ONE LONDON comes from a 10f handicap
* He has 6 runs and 4 this season
* The 2002 winner has a very similar profile
* NUMBER ONE LONDON could be a big runner
* He has to show he will get 12f though

* SOVIET ROCK won a 10f handicap last time
* That was over a month ago
* He has 5 career starts and 2 this season
* The 2006 winner had a very similar profile
* SOVIET ROCK is a positive here
* I like his chance a lot but he has to prove he stays

Selection

SOVIET ROCK 12/1 Each Way

NUMBER ONE LONDON 12/1 Win Bet

SPILLWAY 12/1 Win Bet




L E O P A R D S T O W N

Interesting Draw Statistic here

* All Leopardstown races over a Mile
* Thats all races with 7 or more runners
* Since 2007 horses drawn 1 have a 0-106 record
* If we adjust for non runners it becomes a 2-106 record

* Violet Hour has this problem in the 6.15pm
* Cloud Monkey has this problem in the 6.45p

* EDITH COWAN has this problem in the 7.55
* He is much shorter and will start favourite
* He is an improving type and could overcome this
* I wouldnt bet him given that draw



L e i c e s t e r 6.55

5/2 Grey Gazelle, 5/2 Spanish Art, 4/1 Curl
4/1 Winter Music, 12/1 Pixie Cut, 12/1 Refuse To Mambo.

* There are 13 selling races for 3yo's in June around 10f
* None of the winners came from 7f or shorter
* GREY GAZELLE is not safe doing this with 4 runs
* CURL also fails this and comes from a 7f race
* PIXIE CUT is out as an unraced horse
* REFUSE TO MAMBO doesnt offer enough
* There are no safe options at all here
* The small field will also threaten any statistics
* Safest profiles would be this pair
* WINTER MUSIC - SPANISH ART
* SPANISH ART to win - WINTER MUSIC saver my guess

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