No Bet Today

3 Options


T o d a y 's M e s s a g e


Close decision but decided to have a no bet day.
I have options and nearly went with one but not
completely convinced. In the middle of a quieter
spell. I want that to change soon but not by taking
risks we don't need to take. Try again tomorrow.

Day two of York. I find the races there enjoyable
and it's interesting to see each puzzle unfold to
see how the angles get on but under no illusion
that it's much easier at the other tracks and the
best plan is to keep all options open elsewhere.




T o d a y ' s O p t i o n s


3 Options

Bath 3.30 - PRECISION FIVE 11/10 Win Bet

Bath 4.05 - NORTH POLE 11/10 Win Bet

Tipperary 5.00- SWIFT ACTION 4/1 Each Way


There is more analysis at York than anywhere
else but that is probably not the sensible thing
to do. It's a big televised festival and I feel we
should cover most of it and happy to have this
in the bottom of the message. I don't want too
many risky York bets at the top of the message
though. If I had to give a speculative York bet
then it would be WINDHOEK 10/1 Each Way in
the 3.05pm but this is not one of my 3 options.
There are 2 short priced bets and an Irish one.


Bath 3.30 - PRECISION FIVE 11/10 Win Bet

I think he will improve past these and looks like
he has a bit more class. I think the price is about
right though but my second bet is a similar price
but has fewer horses to beat making it far easier.

Bath 4.05 - NORTH POLE 11/8 Win Bet

This bet is a straight forward statistical bet with
no emotion. I ran his profile in all similar races
and found 4 similar horses finishing W W W W.


Tipperary 5.00- SWIFT ACTION 4/1 Each Way

It's a long way to go for the third bet. Limited
to how much I can know in Ireland but there
is a case against the favourite. I think she's a
good each way bet against her having more
in her favour. Have to rely on her connections
not to handicap her and to have got the trip
right but I think she can win this maiden race.


I was thinking about two win bets and a win
double on NORTH POLE and SWIFT ACTION
but decided to Leave the account alone and
don't have a decent priced bet I'm happy with.

Todays bets bet


Bath 4.05

NORTH POLE 11/10

Win Bet




W e d n e s d a y 's R e v i e w

Obviously I was pleased I didn't go with an official
bet on QUALITY ART yesterday not that it makes a
lot of difference as many like me will have backed
it. One of the reasons I didn't was some losing bets
do more psychological damage to confidence than
others and this loser would have been very difficult
to quickly bounce back from. I just don't trusted the
stable. My view is that he looked suspiciously weak
in the market. Missing the break didn't help and by
strangely moving to the middle of the track which
gave a rail advantage away when you could have
driven a bus through the gaps on the rails it really
raised my suspicion that what looked like a horse
doing his best might well have been an illusion. I
had 1 winner from 2 National Hunt options. Wasn't
a good messages much as the account escaped.

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P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


Y o r k 1.55

5/1 Thunder Strike, 6/1 Sleeper King, 8/1 Rufford
9/1 Ventura Mist, 9/1 Viva Verglas, 10/1 Green Door
10/1 Oasis Town, 12/1 Haikbidiac, 12/1 Nezar
14/1 Fair Ranger, 16/1 Miracle Of Medinah, 16/1 Xanthos
20/1 Tobougg Happy, Dutch Breeze, 33/1 Foxy Clarets
33/1 Party Ruler, Touch The Clouds, 40/1 Morning Post
50/1 Yorkshire Relish.

* This is a Sales race for 2 year olds over 6f
* Just some basic guidance in these races
* Horses from Nurseries have to be avoided
* Thats unless they are fillies from 5f Nurseries
* You should oppose horses with 7 or more runs
* Horses that wear Headgear should be opposed
* Avoid horses that lost by 10 + lengths last time
* I'd oppose horses with 1 run if from an Auction race
* Avoid Males from Maidens with 1 run
* You want a horse that ran within 7 weeks
* Avoid horses with 2-3-4 runs if they have not won before
* Horses from 7f races are poor with 3 + runs
* Horses winning maidens last time with 3 + runs are unsafe

I ran a few angles and looked at a few things without
getting too deep into this race. THUNDER STRIKE is a
horse I've opposed recently as he is small and might
not have much improvement. His numbers don't say
that but given he is drawn 2 here I want to avoid him.

* York races over 6f with 12 + runners
* I find 35 races since 2011 recent winning stalls below
* 20 19 8 14 18 4 14 10 18 18 14 19 14 18 17 1 3 4 4 15 11
* Horses drawn 1 and 2 have a combined 1-67 record
* This and other angles lead me to shortlist 4

* RUFFORD - GREEN DOOR
* VIVA VERGLAS -SLEEPER KING
* From here its no more than guesswork

Selection

VIVA VERGLAS 14/1 Win Bet
RUFFORD 10/1 Win Bet
SLEEPER KING 8/1 Saver Bet




Y o r k 2.30

11/4 J Wonder, 3/1 Lucky Kristale, 4/1 Wind Fire
5/1 Queen Catrine, 10/1 Reroute, 12/1 Kaiulani
25/1 Alutiq, 25/1 Merletta, 33/1 Azagal.

* The Lowther is a Group race for fillies over 6f.
* I want to try and narrow this down a bit
* AZAGAL - Too exposed and badly
* ALUTIQ has too much to do on ratings
* MERLETTA has failed to place in both her runs
* No filly has won this having achieved so little
* KAIULANI comes from the Queen Mary 9 weeks ago
* 4 Past winners did that so it can be done
* All 4 of these winners won the Queen Mary
* KAIULANI could only finish 9th damaging her profile
* REROUTE was well beaten over 5f last time
* I can't match her to any winners
* J WONDER has an unusual profile
* She comes from a Nursery and no past winners did
* I looked at every 2yo Listed and Group race
* Thats any time of year and any distance
* Not many came from nurseries in these races
* Only 1 managed it with under 3 runs
* That was Aidan O'Brien's Joshua Tree in 2009
* He was a male and that was over a Mile
* J WONDER is certainly unorthodox
* QUEEN CATRINE was beaten over 6f last time
* The 2006 and 2007 winners had that profile
* They had 2 and 3 runs and she has 4 runs
* With 4 runs she is more exposed than 14 of the last 16
* Lighter raced horses had better records
* She isn't far away though but this stat worries me
* I looked at horses from Group races over 6f
* The last to do this with 4 + runs was back in 1989
* LUCKY KRISTALE won at Newmarket last time
* That was a 20/1 shock but it sets a good standard
* With 4 runs she has been busier than most winners
* WIND FIRE is interesting winning 6 days ago
* The 2010 and 2012 winners came from the same race
* They were lighter raced than her
* WIND FIRE has 5 runs and only 1 past winner had 5 runs
* The return to 6f will suit as will the recent run
* Much depends on how much others improve more
* The recent run just sways me to WIND FIRE

Selection

WIND FIRE 11/2

Each Way




Y o r k 3.05

5/1 Queensberry Rules
10/1 Frog Hollow, 12/1 Hot Bed, 12/1 Sandagiyr
12/1 Smarty Socks, 14/1 Es Que Love, 14/1 Windhoek
16/1 Navajo Chief 16/1 Norse Blues, 16/1 Validus
20/1 Anderiego 20/1 Mont Ras, 20/1 Pintura
20/1 Prince Of Johanne 25/1 Able Master
33/1 Lord Of The Dance.


* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-107 rated horses
* There are 67 similar races in August

Go back to 2005 and every Mile race at York and
you find that from the 78 races of any kind there
has never been a winner drawn 17 or higher yet.
Horses drawn 17-18-19-20 are 0-67 in these races.

* SANDAGIYR - PRINCE OF JOHANNE -VALIDUS fail this
* Horses aged 7 or more are 3-119
* None have won this race before
* ABLE MASTER is out aged 7 hammered last time
* SMARTY SOCKS aged 9 is older than every winner
* I can't forgive him that drawn 1 and a career high mark
* LORD OF THE DANCE doesn't appeal as a 7yo
* NAVAJO CHIEF won this as a 4yo
* Weak profile this year none were well beaten over 10f
* The highest rated winner in 53 races was 105
* No exposed horse has won if rated 98 or higher yet
* PINTURA looks too exposed to defy 107 today
* MONT RAS isn't right from a Listed race
* He hasn't won off his current rating or in this class
* ANDERIEGO - I needed a more recent run for him
* NORSE BLUES won last time out
* Horses aged 5 or more doing this have struggled
* Only 1 have won in 34 that tried
* NORSE BLUES has a career high mark as well
* There were 18 winners aged 3
* The highest rated winning 3 year old was 102
* No 3yo has yet won rated 103 or higher
* Admittedly only 9 tried but none have won
* WENTWORTH is 3 and has a mark of 106
* We know in 53 similar races no horse won rated 106
* FROG HOLLOW is 4 and comes from 7f
* Horses aged 4 doing this were 4-56
* The 5 winners had 9 12 12 8 runs
* FROG HOLLOW has 19 runs quite a few more
* That worries me and puts me off him
* He also comes from Musselburgh
* Most winners of this came from Grade 1 tracks


Shortlist

* QUEENSBERRY RULES is 3 and comes from 7f
* Only 2 winning 3 year olds managed that
* They both ran much better than he did last time
* You could forgive him that
* He was never in a good position last time at Ascot

* HOT BED is very hard to read
* There is no evidence to suggest he's a negative
* He may have too tough a handicap mark
* That's only speculation and he should be shortlisted

* ES QUE LOVE has been very busy lately
* First reaction was to rule him out
* It's just that he had the worst draw at Goodwood
* That was an excellent run there from Stall 22
* That said the handicappers kicked him in the teeth
* Being raised 3lbs for finishing unplaced is hard
* Given his York record is patchy he looks a bit unsafe

* SANDAGIYR had a bad draw but ignore that
* 4 nne runners repair that to some extent
* He has a rating of 107 though more than all winners
* He was hammered in last years race off the same mark
* That takes the shine away but maybe saver material

* WINDHOEK - 3 year old with a reasonable profile
* Main worry would be if he needs a bit further
* His profile persuaded me more than any others
* There were a few recent lightly raced 3yo winners

Selection

WINDHOEK 10/1

Each Way




B a t h 3.30

Evs Precision Five, 4/1 Special Report
6/1 Saint Boniface, 8/1 Hilden, 10/1 Signora Frasi
20/1 My Stroppy Poppy, 25/1 Ernest Speak
25/1 Mayforde Jack.

This is a 10f handicap and I liked PRECISION FIVE the
topweight. There is evidence She is improving. When
she won two runs ago it was in a much harder race
than this one. She could only finish second last time
but that may well have been a better run and I think
she can outclass this field. Holes in a few rivals here.
I don't see any reason to fear HILDEN as a filly down
in distance. SAINT BONIFACE comes out badly from
a 7f race to 10f when so lightly raced this year. Also
wrong from a 7f race is MAYFORDE JACK. I do like
PRECISION FIVE here. I will be surprised if he loses.

Selection

PRECISION FIVE 11/10

Win Bet





Y o r k 3.40

9/4 The Fugue, 11/4 Venus De Milo
6/1 Riposte, 8/1 Secret Gesture, 12/1 Scintillula
14/1 Emirates Queen, 25/1 Moment In Time.

Not one of my favourite races of the week as the
angles in the Yorkshire Oaks are bland. I'd oppose
SCINTILLULA as finishing unplaced in her weaker
race just a few days ago isn't an ideal preparation.
THE FUGUE has excuses for last run but doesn't feel
right. She couldn't win this last year when in far
better form and having more runs as well. She is
not easy to fancy on her last run. Bottom line for
me is she was beaten much further than any past
winner going back before 1986. She may put that
behind her and win but no past winner has and I
will not bet her because of that. MOMENT IN TIME
has the same problem. EMIRATES QUEEN doesn't
come out well enough on profile or at the weights.

* Past 3yo winners had 6 9 6 4 3 6

* SECRET GESTURE is fine as a 3yo with 5 runs
* She may not want the ground as quick as it is
* Equally there are much safer stables in the race

* RIPOSTE - Should go well as a 3yo with 4 runs

* VENUS DE MILO - Should go well as a 3yo with 4 runs

Selection

VENUS DE MILO 9/4

Win Bet





B a t h 4.05

6/4 North Pole, 7/2 Pilates
7/2 The Scuttler, 5/1 Danz Choice
10/1 Konzert.

* This is a 3yo handicap over a Mile

* PILATES came out as unsafe from a 6f race
* She should be a negative apart from one factor
* Tiny fields produce bad profile winners
* Take nothing from granted in these tiny races
* That said there was a smart profile here
* NORTH POLE won last time only 2 days ago
* I ran a simple search in all similar races
* Horses winning last time
* Running within 4 days
* Male horses only
* Coming from a Mile race
* There were 4 horses that had this profile
* Camberley Two in 2011 Rocket Ronnie in 2013
* Super Duplex in 2010 Caravel in 2007
* These 4 horses finished W W W W
* That 4-4 record pushes me towards NORTH POLE


Selection

NORTH POLE 11/8

Win Bet




Y o r k 4.20

3/1 Say, 9/2 Songbird, 11/2 Our Obsession
11/2 Star Lahib, 8/1 Cushion, 8/1 Lady Nouf, 12/1 Coquet
12/1 Jathabah, 20/1 Bite Of The Cherry
33/1 Eastern Destiny

* The Galtres Stakes is a 12f Listed race for fillies
* JATHABAH - No 3yo has won this down in distance
* She was beaten much further than ideal last time
* EASTERN DESTINY was also beaten too far last time
* BITE OF THE CHERRY also fails this
* There were 2 past winners from Handicaps
* They had 7 and 9 career starts
* OUR OBSESSION comes from a handicap with 3 runs
* I don't like that profile especially with 1 run this season
* COQUET has 10 runs more than most past winners
* Given that I'd want more runs this season
* SAY - Two issues that worry me with her
* She comes from 9f to 12f not a good sign
* I also think she has the worst draw
* It may be 12f but horses drawn 1 score poorly
* She could win but I prefer others


Shortlist

* LADY NOUF is 3 and comes from 10f
* Horses aged 3 doing that won 3 races
* These 3 horses had 7-8-7 runs
* LADY NOUF has just 5 slightly less experienced
* Still respect her but there is a genuine stamina doubt

* SONGBIRD - No reason why she shouldn't be shortlisted
* Not first choice but I can't rule her out

* STAR LAHIB comes from a handicap
* So did 2 of the last 3 winners

* CUSHION looks to be improving
* Worries me it took her 6 runs to win a maiden
* Her numbers are surprisingly progressive
* She was entitled to need her last run
* This has gone to 3 year olds beaten in 12f Listed races


Selection

STAR LAHIB 5/1 Win Bet

CUSHION 8/1 Win Bet





F f o s L a s 4.30

* This is a 2m 4f handicap hurdle
* Some profiles here are so complicated
* It just doesn't warrant the time to explain them all
* LISTEN AND LEARN and ANTON DOLIN stand out
* Both are 5 year olds with recent wins
* LISTEN AND LEARN comes out better of the two
* He is down in trip rather than up in distance
* ANTON DOLIN goes up from a Novice Handicap
* LISTEN AND LEARN goes down in trip from a non novice
* That is a safer profile of the two
* LISTEN AND LEARN would be my selection




Y o r k 4.55

This is a classy fillies handicap but as ever a lethal
one with a massive field. I won't preview the race
but I would have argued you should go with higher
drawn horses. Look at the 11 races here with 12 or
more runners since 2011 and you find the winners
had stalls 13 12 13 8 15 12 14 18 8 1 8 which clearly
shows low numbers struggle. I'd prefer a 3 year old
as long as it is the right type. They ideally had 5-12
runs and at least 4 that year. These were best from
a 7f handicap beaten in that race but not by more
than 8 lengths. I'd consider GHASABAH as a saver
at best given her weak draw. DUSKY QUEEN came
out quite well better than most but this is too hard.



T i p p e r a r y 5.00

6/4 Acting Talent, 7/2 Swift Action, 4/1 Fiosrach
5/1 Cottrell, 6/1 Barbados Bob, 12/1 South Ring
33/1 Elusive Sally, 50/1 Salvado, 66/1 Paple Blessing
100/1 Beuno Cailin, 100/1 Playful Promises
100/1 What A Picture.

* This is an all aged maiden over 5f
* I found 54 similar races in recent years
* I have problems with ACTING TALENT
* She has had 3 runs over 6f 6f 7f
* Today she is a filly dropping from 7f to 5f
* That has been done but not very often
* Hows She's Cuttin did it in 2006 with 2 runs
* It's a weak profile but not impossible to overcome
* I just don't like the fact she comes down on her pedigree
* Her Sire never raced over 5f
* Her Dam won over 8f and never raced over 5f either
* Her sire hasn't had a 5f winner yet
* FIOSRACH is unraced so has to be vulnerable
* Unraced horses aged 3 have a 1-51 record in these races
* BARBADOS BOB is a seasonal debutant
* Not keen on his profile especially with 4 runs
* None like him won coming from a Nursery
* SOUTH RING isn't safe enough as a 4yo filly
* I'd be looking to oppose these horses

Shortlist

* COTTRELL comes from a 6f handicap
* I don't see why he shouldn't run well
* COTTRELL was 2nd last time at Naas
* SWIFT ACTION was 3rd just behind him in the same race

* SWIFT ACTION was beaten at odds on last time
* That was nowhere as bad as some have said
* I think she had the worst draw at Naas over 6f
* She split horses rated 77 and 76 which isn't too bad
* She was conceding plenty of experience away to others
* SWIFT ACTION's profile is fine
* I looked at similar twice raced fillies down in trip
* Those running in 3yo maidens not beaten too far
* 8 horses tried finishing 3 5 9 4 W 4 W 7
* She has a top class trainer as well
* I think she is the each way bet against this favourite

Selection

SWIFT ACTION 4/1

Each Way

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