* Apologies the message was sent 3 times
but it failed twice so I had no choice


No Full Bet today
1 Top of the Message Bet
13 Previews


Todays Bet

Curragh 2.45

TIDDLIWINKS 14/1 Win Bet

SLADE POWER 4/1 Saver Bet



In terms of message sending I thought I had seen
it all. I've often sent bets that were announced as
non runners just after the message was sent but I
have never switched so quickly to another bet in
the same race especially one like Tiddliwinks so
risky and beaten 124 lengths last time out ! Only
10 minutes ago I was going with MAAREK as the
bet but he's literally just pulled out. Its probably
foolish but I have decided to go with an outsider
TIDDLIWINKS who won the race last year. Have
to accept that he is an unlikely winner but there
is a good case for him assuming he had a good
excuse for his last run and if he didnt then why
is he running here. Probably stupid but it might
also be inspired but either way my original bet
pulled out at 12.00pm and I was in a tight corner.
Have the saver as we may well need it.


The other bet that rushed through my mind just
as Maarek pulled out was a two win bets with an
each way double on VAN DER NEER and either of
GWORN or BRETON ROCK in the 3.35pm. I just
couldnt commit to that in such a small time frame.


* There is no Flat Racing in England tomorrow
* I will do a Sunday message though
* It wont have a lot of analysis or previews
* Expect a short Sunday message
* I will have one eye is on the Bank holiday cards




I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Saturday's are fast becoming my favourite days
something I never thought I'd say. Thats mainly
down to the choice and variety these days with
good midweek races stolen from midweek for a
Saturday bonanza. I like todays message so I'd
be hopeful we can do something. We seem to
get a good priced winner every other Saturday.

The last Six Saturdays have been split between
3 really profitable days and 3 losing days. After
last Saturdays winner it is our turn to fail today
but we have strong prospect of preventing that.

I sometimes despair of Haydock and York being
unreadable so I have limited my work there but
Chester and Goodwood are two of my favourite
tracks and I have some interesting Irish races.



Today's 6 Options


Chester 2.30 - KNOWE HEAD 10/1

Curragh 2.45 - TIDDLIWINKS 14/1 Win Bet

Haydock 3.15 - GABRIAL´S KAKA 10/1 Each Way

Curragh 3.20 - VAN DER NEER 7/2 Each Way

Goodwood 3.35 - GWORN 4/1 Each Way

Haydock 6.00 - Lay The Favourite at 5/4




Today's 6 Options Summarised

Chester 2.30 -KNOWE HEAD 10/1

I love my statistics in the race. I have this horse as
the only safe profile. I love his price but there does
seem a lot of weakness in the market and there are
question marks about what form he is in and if he's
capable of winning off a career high mark when a
small horse well beaten last time. Lets leave him
as a Mention. I've backed him small at 10/1 and he
does interest me statistically but I havent made the
case for him. As I type I dont feel he should be a bet.


Curragh 2.45 - TIDDLIWINKS 14/1 Win Bet

This is probably madness. I was ready to send the
message at 12.00 with MAAREK as my only bet on
the day with a saver on Slade Power. The very last
thing I was doing before sending the message was
watching TIDDLIWINKS getting almost pulled up at
York. Then MAAREK became a Non runner and the
idea came into my head that TIDDLIWINKS might
well have a legitimate excuse for his run at York.
He comes from a brilliant trial race and he won
this race last year and has always been laid out
for the race. Given he is 14/1 I suggest a bet.


Haydock 3.15 - GABRIAL´S KAKA 10/1 Each Way

I was going to leave this race in the bottom as it
looked too hard but 4 non runners have helped a
bit. Very tough race. With so many lighter raced
past winners I have done this race Forensically.
There is a narrative to argue he could win after
not staying on his last 2 races. I did not consider
him for the days best bet though as I have got 4
shortlisted and thats too many. Small bet here.


Curragh 3.20 - VAN DER NEER 7/2 (Each Way)

Going with a bet in the Irish Guineas is not my
style really. I just felt VAN DER NEER was clear
choice of the available options and I think well
worth an each way bet given he is around 7/2.

Goodwood 3.35 - GWORN 4/1 Each Way

My Negatives in this race are quite compelling
and they do open the race up. It's so annoying
the favourite for the race is a positive but that's
how the chips have fallen. I could have easily
had a win bet and saved on Breton Rock but I
have decided to go with Gworn each way 4/1.


Haydock 6.00 - Lay The Favourite

I can't advise a Lay for the main bet as there
are plenty that won't get on. I want to oppose
the hot favourite (ENOBLED) who has been a
well backed well touted talking horse as this
is a horse with statistical question marks. He
is no certainty to lose but I would be happier
to have every other horse on my side and as
I cant split some of the others the lays the bet.




F r i d a y 's R e v i e w

I ducked a bet yesterday mainly because there
was nothing in the message that gave me any
confidence and it was day that had treated us
badly in the past. That was the correct thing to
do as results proved yesterday. It wasn't pretty
and the main claim to fame was that I left little
doubt that it was a message that might flop so
there should not have been any surprise it did.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


Chester 2.00

This 6f maiden for 2 year olds requires a complete
guess. Don't worry about the draw. I'll watch both
MANDY´S CHOICE and LETTERFROMAMERICA as
no unraced female has ever won a Chester Maiden
over 6f or more at any time of year. I'd be happier
to side with a horse with 2 runs. PARTY RULER is
my guess each way but that is really all I can do.



C h e s t e r 2.30

3/1 Star Lahib, 5/1 Dolphin Rock, 5/1 Honey Of A Kitten
7/1 Knowe Head, 7/1 Lord Of The Dance, 10/1 Kay Gee Be
10/1 Stellar Express, 10/1 Vainglory, 14/1 Modernism
20/1 An Cat Dubh.

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* Dont pay any attention to the draw
* The last 4 winners of similar races were drawn 11 11 2 10
* I'd be more than happy with a higher draw myself
* VAINGLORY is 9 and comes from an 8f race
* With 1 run this season he comes out badly
* MODERNISM didn't do enough on his seasonal debut
* KAY GEE BE is out as a Alan Berry 9yo seasonal debutant
* STAR LAHIB is a 4yo filly with 3 career starts
* I cant find a winner like her and inexperience puts me off
* STELLAR EXPRESS is a 4yo filly
* She comes up in trip from an 8f race
* Fillies doing this with 1 run this season were 1-63
* No exposed 4yo filly came from 8f without 4 runs that year
* STELLAR EXPRESS may find that too tough an ask
* AN CAT DUBH is 4 but he comes from 7f
* Thats a 3f step up in distance with just 1 run this season
* It would worry me greatly and he isnt safe enough

Shortlist

* LORD OF THE DANCE is an expoxed 7yo up from 8f
* He has Class 4 form and a recent run
* Not a great profile but I found 1 similar winner
* There are two big issues he has to answer
* LORD OF THE DANCE has to prove he stays 10f
* He has to prove do this away from Faster ground
* I'm not looking for a 7lbs claimer either

* DOLPHIN ROCK is an exposed 6yo up in distance
* He only has 2 runs this season and 33 days absence
* Horses with his profile were better with a run within 2 weeks
* I can find a similar winner absent just under a month
* None like DOLPHIN ROCK absent just over a month
* It's forgiveable but it's not ideal
* He has a career high mark as well and all wins over shorter

* HONEY OF A KITTEN recently won 2 weaker races on Sand
* He then ran well over hurdles last time out
* He is very hard to judge because of that
* Shortlisted as he is fit and running well
* It's unclear what ground suits him best
* There are doubts not least stamina in the ground
* He does have enough positives to shortlist

* KNOWE HEAD is an exposed 6yo from a 10f race
* He has recent runs and Class 2 form
* Several winners had his profile
* Pound for Pound it is the safest profile by some way
* He has also got proven Chester form
* He was favourite when 2nd in this race last year
* There are some concerns about him
* You can argue he was in better form last year
* You can argue he is a small horse on a career high mark
* He needed his last run as he had been off 2 months
* Can I assume he will be fit enough after that run ?
* I accept all that but his profile is very safe

Selection

KNOWE HEAD 8/1 +

Win Bet




C u r r a g h 2.45

6/1 Jimmy Styles, 6/1 Maarek, 6/1 Slade Power
7/1 Hitchens, 9/1 Russian Soul, 10/1 Nocturnal Affair
10/1 Reply, 12/1 Antious, 12/1 Dandy Boy, 12/1 Leitir Mor
12/1 Tiddliwinks, 16/1 Parliament Square
25/1 Farmleigh House, 33/1 Angel´s Pursuit
33/1 Arctic, 33/1 Katla, 40/1 Infanta Branca.

This is a Group 3 sprint over 6f. I like this Irish race and
really wanted to mention something about this contest.

* Past winners absence from the track
* 10 35 10 10 7 Fto 10 63 10
* 5 of the last 10 winners ran 10 days ago
* They all came from the Duke of York Stakes at York
* 3 of the last 4 winners came from that race
* So did 6 of the last 9 winners
* MAAREK and TIDDLIWINKS do this today
* It's hard to understand TIDDLIWINKS last two runs
* Sickening if he wins but he is risky
* MAAREK is very interesting
* He ran well from a Bad draw at York
* The main issue is the ground
* Had this been softer ground he would win
* It is on the faster side of good though
* Can MAAREK act on this ground ?

I dont want JIMMY STYLES as a 9yo with a months break
and one run this season. I would avoid the 3 year olds as
they have a bad record. All 22 have lost since 2005 which
included favourites. LEITIR MOR is out aged 3 down from
a Mile race. PARLIAMENT SQUARE and INFANTA BRANCA
are also rejected as 3 year olds. DANDY BOY is 7 and has
a 77 day break and just one run this year and his trainer
has said this is a Prep race for Ascot. I do not want to risk
him. I think we have to avoid ANTIOUS as a South African
sprinter first time out. I dont want REPLY as he comes from
a Mile race down 2f and against seasoned sprinters. This
could be too much for a 4 year old. RUSSIAN SOUL looks
unsafe with a very difficult absence. There are 3 dangers
to MAAREK or at least 3 horses I fear the most but its not
easy to be confident about any of them as all have issues.

* NOCTURNAL AFFAIR is an exposed 7yo first time out
* Cant rule him out but it has to be a worry
* HITCHENS is 8 and has won this before
* Older than past winners and was in unplaced last years race
* SLADE POWER is very hard to read as first time out 4yo

Selection

I was planning to bet MAAREK but he pulled out just
before my message was due to be sent. I am going
to go with TIDDLIWINKS now at 16/1.


C h e s t e r 3.10

7/2 Gatepost, 9/2 Yair Hill, 6/1 Summerinthecity
7/1 Intransigent, 7/1 Pearl Ice, 8/1 Aubrietia
10/1 Graphic, 10/1 Thunderball, 12/1 Forest Edge
16/1 Jedward.

Struggled to squeeze in this 6f handicap and I dont think
I've have done it justice. Dr Marwan Koukash will want
to win a race here. Sometimes he demands horses race
here when it doesn't suit them. I dont like GATEPOST in
this race and think he is the wrong favourite. There isn't
any evidence that Stall One will give him any advantage.

* May and June have 586 Handicaps over 6f
* Thats 586 Handicaps in Class 2-3-4 over this distance
* I ran GATEPOST's profile
* Horses aged 4
* Coming from a 5f race
* One run this season
* More than 13 career starts
* Horses with this profile had a 1-69 record
* The only winner Hawkeyethenoo in 2010
* GATEPOST doesnt have a good enough profile
* PEARL ICE would not have been my choice either
* Not as a 5yo with just 1 run this year
* YAIR HILL is also unsafe statistically
* He won a7f handicap with 1 run this year
* No winners like him won any of the 586 races

Conclusion

I didn't get a chance to look closely at all of these
as time ran out. Besisdes some of the profiles had
a lot of difficult complications I wasnt looking for.

* I am making these 3 horses negatives
* GATEPOST - YAIR HILL - PEARL ICE
* I would shortlist this pair
* INTRANSIGENT -SUMMERINTHECITY
* Not sure I sorted this but it's 80% done and it's my view.





H a y d o c k 3.15

Betfred.com Silver Bowl
(Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo) 1m

7/2 Newstead Abbey 5/1 Code Of Honor, 8/1 Hay Dude
10/1 Alhebayeb, 12/1 Red Avenger, 14/1 Gabrial´s Kaka
16/1 Country Western, 16/1 Georgian Bay, 16/1 Shebebi
33/1 Mocenigo 33/1 Pure Excellence.

* The Silver Bowl is a 3yo handicap over 8f
* There are 19 renewals of this race
* There are 57 similar races in May and June
* No strong draw bias but the outside stalls bother me
* I wouldnt have Stall 1 or the highest stall either
* You want a lightly raced horse running within a month
* If thats a Male horse rated under 99 then all the better
* Bear these statistics in mind in this race
* Experienced horses do not take this race
* The last 16 winners had the following career starts
* 5 5 4 3 3 8 6 3 4 3 3 3 8 3 4 2
* Past winners had the following days absence
* 16 16 14 4 18 29 30 4 217 8 21 19 19 21 11 16
* 15 of the last 16 winners ran within a Month
* 15 of the last 16 winners were Male (Females 1-29)
* Look at the Official Ratings of the last 16 winners
* 91 85 84 87 93 104 91 90 95 79 94 0 86 97 77 90
* Only 1 past winner won with an Official Rating of 98 or more
* NEWSTEAD ABBEY has 10 runs more than any past winner
* Only 3 of the 57 winners had 9 or more career starts
* None of these were absent more than a month
* NEWSTEAD ABBEY is absent more than 15 of the last 16 winners
* Win lose of Draw he isnt the type thats won these races
* PURE EXCELLENCE is wrong with 14 career starts
* She is also a filly and ran poorly last time
* MOCENIGO was well beaten last time out
* No horse won with 1 run that season if well beaten
* He has too much to overcome
* CODE OF HONOR - I dont like his draw in Stall 1
* He comes from a conditions race with 1 run this year
* No winners of this race did that
* I found one elsewhere (Rewarded) but they dont score well
* We know 15 of the last 16 winners ran within a Month
* CODE OF HONOR has not and he doesnt offer enough
* Horses from 7f this year and 5 + career runs are 2-147
* ALHEBAYEB also comes from a 7f race
* You want lighter raced horses doing this
* ALHEBAYEB has 6 runs so is rejected
* It would worry me he has just 1 run this season
* So would an official rating of 107
* The highest winning Official Rating in this race was 104
* ALHEBAYEB fails this and has a 38 day absence
* Thats longer than every past winner except one
* It's asking a lot for him to win off 107
* ALHEBAYEB looks vulnerable to me
* GEORGIAN BAY also comes from a 7f race
* With 5 career runs he looks vulnerable
* SHEBEBI also fails the same statistic
* We know horses from 7f this year with 5 + runs are 2-147
* SHEBEBI now has 6 career runs

Shortlist


* COUNTRY WESTERN comes from an 8f handicap
* He has Class 2 form and 6 career starts
* I cant find a male winning this race like him
* I did find one elsewhere so I wont rule him out

* RED AVENGER has the same profile
* I would consider it good enough to shortlist

* HAY DUDE won an 8f handicap last time
* He has 3 runs this season and Class 3 form
* I found 2 similar winners with 7-8 career starts
* HAY DUDE only has 5 runs
* I found 2 more winners with 2 runs this year
* HAY DUDE isnt exactly like a winner
* He is in the ballpark area though

* GABRIAL´S KAKA was hammered in a 10f Group 3 last time
* Consider the 1994 winner of this race
* That horse (Dance Turn) was very similar
* He was also hammered in a 10f Group 3 last time
* He also had 4 runs and 2 that season
* GABRIAL´S KAKA cant be underestimated here
* I predicted before his last race he wouldnt stay
* GABRIAL´S KAKA may not have stayed in his last 2 runs
* His two runs before then were both wins
* I am taking a chance on him

Selection

GABRIAL´S KAKA 10/1

Each Way




C u r r a g h 3.20

5/2 Magician, 3/1 Van Der Neer, 5/1 Fort Knox
13/2 Havana Gold, 8/1 Trading Leather, 9/1 Gale Force Ten
12/1 George Vancouver, 20/1 Flying The Flag
25/1 First Cornerstone, 50/1 Ask Dad.

The Irish Guineas is a race I can only scan through and
I won't pretend I have any intimate knowledge of these
horses. GALE FORCE TEN and GEORGE VANCOUVER do
not appeal. Both were rejected by the stable jockey and
the former may not stay and the latter didnt do enough
last time out. Not convinced about FORT KNOX as he's
possibly flattered by his last win. HAVANA GOLD ran in
France 13 days ago in the French Guineas and whilst
he might win there is little encouragement statistically
from horses that come from that race and it puts me off
him. TRADING LEATHER isn't for me. I dont like betting
Classic 3 year olds down in distance either in the Prep
races or Classics themselves. There are no precedents
and I also think Stall One will hurt him as well. Another
horse down in trip is MAGICIAN. I really dont like these
horses that run in Classics down from further as hardly
any win. The last 10 winners of this race came via the
English 2000 Guineas and MAGICIAN doesn't. Because
of that I am going to side with the safer VAN DER NEER

* VAN DER NEER - Ran a decent 3rd in the 2000 Guineas
* I dont think Stall 1 would have helped him that day
* Trainer won this with Canford Cliffs also 3rd in the Guineas
* Canford Cliffs also had 2 runs this year as he does
* Loves the ground and looks the safest bet to me


Selection

VAN DER NEER 3/1 +

Win Bet



Y o r k 3.30

4/1 Royal Mezyan, 5/1 Jallota, 5/1 Tiger Twenty Two
13/2 Munjally, 8/1 Roman Legend, 9/1 Astaire, 12/1 Viva Verglas
16/1 Mccarthy Mor, 16/1 Tancred, 20/1 Sir Jack Layden
25/1 Kommander Kirkup, 25/1 New Bidder, 33/1 Bens Boy
33/1 Imshivalla, 33/1 Street Boss, 66/1 Shirocco Passion
66/1 Who Followed Who.

* This is a 6f maiden for 2 year olds
* There is a huge field for this race
* I have to mention the draw here
* Look at the winning stalls in races here with 12 + runners
* 10 18 18 14 19 14 18 17
* In the interests of fairness the winner before that was drawn 1
* That was some time ago and he came to the stands side
* High Numbers are surely much safer
* ROYAL MEZYAN is drawn 3 which is a worry
* ROMAN LEGEND and MUNJALLY are also drawn very low
* TIGER TWENTY TWO does have a good draw
* Puts me off he was 40/1 for his debut when from a big stable
* JALLOTA has to be considered drawn well
* MCCARTHY MOR is well drawn and well backed
* His trainer says its his most likely winner today
* MCCARTHY MOR is my choice albeit a specuilative guess



Goodwood 3.35

3/1 Breton Rock, 6/1 Pay Freeze, 7/1 Ashaadd
7/1 Flyman, 7/1 Gworn, 8/1 Flashlight, 8/1 Tamayuz Star
8/1 You Da One, 12/1 Sorella Bella, 20/1 Queen Aggie.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 7f
* There are 43 of these Class 2 races in May and June
* The Draw is hard to read with middle-high slightly better
* There do appear to be some interesting stats here
* I looked at horses with 1 run this season
* Horses doing this with 7 or more runs are 0-50
* PAY FREEZE fails this with 9 runs already
* There were 5 seasonal debutant winners
* Those with 5 or more career starts were 0-38
* ASHAADD fails that and is rejected
* I looked at horses coming from 8f or more
* Horses doing this with 7 or more career runs were 0-65
* FLASHLIGHT fails this and is too exposed to drop in trip
* SORELLA BELLA also fails that 0-65 statistic
* TAMAYUZ STAR comes from a Listed race this season
* Horses doing this are 0-25
* Thats not a good sign and rain would hurt him too
* Fillies from 6f races were 0-35
* QUEEN AGGIE fails that and is rejected
* YOU DA ONE doesnt come out well enough from 6f

Possibles

* FLYMAN - 1 similar winner but doesnt look thrown in
* His trainer says he doesnt expect him to win off this mark
* Statistically I could see him winning but prefer others

* BRETON ROCK has a neutral-positive profile
* Hard to read I had to call it that way
* His Draw in Stall 1 isn't certain to be a positive

* GWORN - Decent profile and must be considered
* He has little in hand of the handicapper though
* I think with so many negatives he is the right bet
* Options are each way or save on Breton Rock

Selection

GWORN 9/2

Each Way



Y o r k 4.00

* This is a 12f handicap
* Statistically I have no interest in the race
* I just wanted to mention the draw
* I looked at 12f handicaps here with 12 + runners
* Since 2011 there were 19 of these races
* 17 of the 19 winners were drawn 7 or higher
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6 were just 2-106
* No intention of doing the race beyond this Stat


C h e s t e r 4.15

9/2 Chosen Character, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 5/1 Klynch
7/1 Bronze Prince, 8/1 Dr Red Eye, 8/1 Laffan, 8/1 Mabait
12/1 Verse Of Love, 20/1 Clockmaker 20/1 Mehdi.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 7f
* The following horses have statistical problems
* GREY MIRAGE - Not keen he is absent 43 days after a win
* KLYNCH - No horse like him won a 6f handicap last time
* MEHDI looks underraced this season
* VERSE OF LOVE isn't running well enough
* CLOCKMAKER is 7 with 2 runs this season
* Almost all horses his age need more runs that year
* From a wide draw I feel he is too unsafe

Shortlist

* MABAIT - Average profile

* LAFFAN - Lightly raced 4yo down in distance
* I wanted a slightly better run last time out
* Almost a winner like him but not quite

* DR RED EYE won a 7f handicap last time
* That was only a Class 4 handicap and this is Class 2
* This is a tough task off a career high mark

* CHOSEN CHARACTER - Does have enough to shortlist
* Almost a very good profile - but in the end just reasonable
* Could easily be a selection but one or two slight problems
* His best win came off 87 and now he is rated 95
* He has gone up 4lbs for being beaten last time out
* That could hurt a horse who is 0-4 in this class
* Especially one that now has topweight

Selection

None of these are ideal. I've shortlisted four but they
all have some sort of question marks. I came down to
LAFFAN and MABAIT but I dont feel confident here.

MABAIT 7/1 Win Bet
LAFFAN 8/1 Saver




G o o d w o o d 4.40

This is an absolutely vile 6f handicap and still a big
field after several non runners. I will just suggest it
will be won by a horse with at least 2 runs this year.
I would also avoid all the horses drawn 14 or higher.
Horses drawn in Stalls 2-3-4-5-6 have won 13 of the
last 14 handicaps here with 10 + runners. I think a
very unsafe rushed preview suggests this shortlist.

* MATA HARI BLUE - TAGULA NIGHT
* DOCOFTHEBAY - HAADEETH



C h e s t e r 4.50

7/4 Bethany Bay, 5/2 Martial Art, 6/1 Greek Spirit
6/1 Showtime Girl, 10/1 Superboot, 12/1 Deva Victrix
12/1 Only For You, 66/1 Babylon Candle, Serendippidy.

No idea what will win this 3yo maiden. After a quick
scan through which told me little I decided that best
policy was to trust the Racing Post Ratings. The race
that BETHANY BAY ran 7th in last time was far ahead
of anything he has done before and anything any of
these have done. It may not be safe and it was over
in Ireland but if that figure is accurate then he must
have the best chance. I suspect had he not been in
Stall 9 he would be much shorter. I dont think there
is the same draw bias as there used to be here and
it wouldn't put me off. I think BETHANY BAY may be
the one. I Felt MARTIAL ART was a bit exposed for
a seasonal debutant and GREEK SPIRIT had plenty
to find. BETHANY BAY looks the one to me and he's
quite an attractive each way double bet if you want.

Selection - BETHANY BAY




F f o s L a s 5.40

6/4 Rosie Probert, 5/2 Odin, 11/2 Shelford
10/1 Milaneen, 10/1 Tarmac Girl, 12/1 Mac Le Couteau
20/1 Pru, 66/1 Haveumistim.

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* I looked at all these races in May and June
* ROSIE PROBERT is an unraced 4yo filly
* Great stable but I looked at 4yo fillies in these races
* Since 2000 their full record was 5 wins from 158 that tried
* The 5 winners had 3 4 7 6 0 career starts
* Unraced 4yo fillies were just 1-34 (Fashionable Gal 2011)
* Not a great record but one has done it
* I would still rather oppose her each way
* MAC LE COUTEAU - Not for me from a Bumper
* TARMAC GIRL - Dont want a mare well beaten in sellers
* There look to be two options here

Shortlist

* ODIN - Decent flat horse but an unraced 5yo
* No statistical problem with that
* His Sire though is 0-21 with his National Hunt horses
* If it rained or went softer it wouldnt suit him either
* SHELFORD is an unraced 4yo with decent flat form
* He is fine statistically and would be my choice
* He's a bigger price than Odin for a start

Selection

SHELFORD 3/1 + Each Way



H a y d o c k 6.00

5/4 Enobled, 6/1 Lazarus Bell, 8/1 Dream Maker,
8/1 So Beloved, 8/1 Yourartisonfire, 10/1 Capo Rosso
10/1 George Rooke

* This is a 3yo handicap over 7f
* Not a pleasantly framed race with 7 runners
* One interesting statistic draws me into this
* ENOBLED is strongly fancied and well touted
* He comes from an 8f maiden this year
* I looked at every similar race in May and June
* I looked at horses from maidens over 8f and further
* Horses doing this had a 9-92 record
* All 9 winners had at least 3 career starts
* ENOBLED only has 2 runs
* Horses that WON these 8f maidens were 0-21
* ENOBLED has to try and buck that 0-21 statistic

Selection

Lay The Favourite Enobled at 11/10

I think the best advise is to lay the favourite as we
have all 6 opponents on our side. I've tried for an
outright selection but I liked too many profiles to
be sure and because I know I have several that I
could give a chance to the Lay seems the best plan.


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