Mathematician 1765 | 28-12-2013 |
1 Bet Today
Chepstow 2.35
WELL REFRESHED 8/1
Each Way
There were three potential bets today and he
is my choice. I do think all three are worth a
bet. My other pair both at Lingfield have got
a stronger chance of winning but I decided I
would go for a Welsh National Bet and think
the best advice is to bet all 3 of these horses.
M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s
Three top of the message races
I like all 3 the same
I think they are all worth betting
I'd be happy enough with any as my bet today
Lingfield 12.10
WEE JEAN 7/2 Win Bet
TRUANCY 3/1 Saver Bet
I think this is a very good bet. I feel if I can get
my main negative beaten I have a horse that is
different class in WEE JEAN and with TRUANCY
covered as a saver being the improver I like it.
I was expecting 9/2 and 4/1 but prices are gone.
Lingfield 2.10
BLESSINGTON 11/2
Each Way
Tough race but this horse will show us today if
he is starting to disappoint or finally deliver the
promise he has always shown. My reading is a
horse that has had genuine excuses and that is
capable of beating these if he runs his race.
Chepstow 2.35
WELL REFRESHED 8/1
Each Way
The hardest race to land of the three but he's
also a better price. I liked his profile and had
him down as the most likely winner. I've also
done some new analysis in the race. Involves
taking 2 unorthodox previously unused routes
to asses this race and whilst I couldn't trust the
work they both suggest he is the bet as well.
Staking
I did like this potential bet
WEE JEAN
BLESSINGTON
Win Bet on Both horses
Each Way Double
It would mean that I have to lose the saver in
Wee Jean's race though. I nearly did this but
decided to go with WELL REFRESHED who is
a much simpler bet. I think this decreases the
chance of a winner today but he is a bigger
price and I did want to target this race today.
M e s s a g e C o n t e n t
Welsh National Day and that race is my priority
today. It is not a one race message as there are
nine previews but it is a selective message that
ignores most of Chepstow and Newbury. Strong
tracks but I don't like either card and the ground
makes it more random. Aside from the big race
I'm going to ignore all the races at these tracks.
Catterick has a dirty and grubby card but I like
that and I have done some races there. Also in
is some Lingfield races as these are familiar so
we know what we are getting there. There are
3 races today I really like. The rest I would not
worry too much about. Stay with these 3 races.
F r i d a y s R e v i e w
No official bet yesterday I decided to step
back and leave the account alone. Seems
to have been a hit and miss message and
it finished L W L L W L W L W L. Some of
the shorter priced selections lost but there
were 9/2 3/1 11/10 and 5/4 winners. That's
not too bad in 10 races when you consider
we also had a Faller who would have run
close and a horse beaten in a close finish.
Four winners from Ten races and unlucky
in two other races suggests to me a good
effort and I think we came out quite well.
P r o f i l e s A n d P r e v i e w s
L i n g f i e l d 11.40
4/1 Jalingo, 4/1 Warbrook 4/1 Spirit Of Winning
7/1 War Of Art, 8/1 Notebook 10/1 Anjin
12/1 Royal Encounter, 14/1 Ganymede
14/1 Treasure Cay, 16/1 Castorienta
20/1 Emperor Ferdinand, 50/1 Caroline´s Beach
50/1 Izbushka.
This is a 7f maiden for 2 year olds. No stand out bet
especially as John Gosden runs two. WARBROOK
must be respected from this stable. A problem with
him is Stall 2 as recent 7f winners here were drawn
11 6 9 11 7 6 7 10 8 7 3 9 3 9 6 6 11 13 9 and there has
certainly been a bias against the very low numbers.
That would also put me off NOTEBOOK in stall one.
Any number of unraced horses could win this and
interesting John Gosden's SPIRIT OF WINNING is
well supported in the market and clearly fancied.
If we run JALINGO's profile having had 3 previous
runs and a run in the past 2 weeks I find 7 horses
that shared that profile coming 2 2 5 W 4 W 2 and
that tells me his profile is fine. No surprise to see
something beat him but there won't be many that
will. This leads me to an each way single. It does
leave me a bit cold as a bet but it looks the safer
way of playing the race.
Selection
JALINGO 5/2
Each Way
L i n g f i e l d 12.10
3/1 Lady Frances, 4/1 Drive On, 4/1 Wee Jean
5/1 Truancy, 6/1 Stan Nineteen, 8/1 Capers Royal Star
16/1 Applejack Lad, 25/1 Starlight Princess.
* This is a Class 2 Nursery over 7f
* Only 1 of these races have been run before
* Past renewals of this race are irrelevant
* The race has been upgraded substantially in class
* Therefore no angles from any directly similar race
* LADY FRANCES is a filly absent 121 days
* I thought this was an interesting statistic
* December has had 288 nursery's
* Thats 288 nursery's at every distance in any class
* I looked at Fillies absent 6 weeks or more
* When having 6 or more career starts they are 0-67
* Only very lightly raced fillies have defied absences
* LADY FRANCES is therefore opposed today
* DRIVE ON doesn't interest me drawn 1
* I mentioned the draw in the 11.40am preview
* Given he moves from a Class 5 to a Class 2 he is out too
* STARLIGHT PRINCESS also comes from Class 5
* APPLEJACK LAD also comes from Class 5
* I want to avoid both going up 3 Grades today
* CAPERS ROYAL STAR doesn't attract me
* Look at his trainer Alastair Lidderdale
* All his Flat runners in Class 3 or higher are 0-37
* Small stable never won a Class 3 never mind Class 2
Shortlist
* STAN NINETEEN - May find this too hot but chances
* TRUANCY - Needs to improve but should
* WEE JEAN - Not impossible she could win off 90
* The interesting thing for me is this
* If I am right to oppose Lady Frances
* And I can't be sure with no similar races like it
* Then WEE JEAN only has a 0-75 to beat
* He has shown himself much better than this grade
* He was beaten under a length in a 0-93 last time
* The strategy is to trust WEE JEAN to outclass this field
* But also saver on the improver TRUNCY
Selection
WEE JEAN 7/2 Win Bet
TRUANCY 3/1 Saver Bet
Catterick 12.25
6/4 Rainbow Peak, 7/4 Benzanno, 5/1 Fair Loch
8/1 Yorkist, 16/1 Persian Peril, 25/1 Time Of My Life
50/1 Pelican Rock, 66/1 Auto Mac, 66/1 Escape To The West
66/1 Khelac, 66/1 Torrington Deal.
* This is a maiden hurdle
* Market dominated by 2 unraced hurdlers
* RAINBOW PEAK was the better flat horse but is 7
* BENZANNO is a far better age as a 4 year old
* BENZANNO is the safer bet of the two
L i n g f i e l d 12.40
11/10 Secular Society, 9/2 Aldeburgh, 11/2 Gambol
11/2 Sweet Marwell, 8/1 Big Baz, 16/1 Great Conquest
20/1 Cataria Girl, 25/1 Lapis Blue, 50/1 Joyful Risk
50/1 Tax Reform, 100/1 Maygo´s Joy
200/1 Echoes Of War.
This is a 3yo maiden over a Mile. Not much I can
do here especially with a confused draw picture.
I personally wouldn't want GAMBOL or BIG BAZ
as unraced horses from trainers I could not trust
to ready one first time out. TAX REFORM is going
backwards on his numbers and has been sold at
a cheap price recently. LAPIS BLUE has a testing
absence. So does SWEET MARWELL and as both
are fillies they might be best avoided too. There
were a few 4yo winners none like CATARIA GIRL
with just two career runs and she looks too risky.
GREAT CONQUEST hasn't achieved enough after 2
runs. ALDEBURGH is 4 and has already been well
behind the favourite SECULAR SOCIETY. Having
looked at the options I feel SECULAR SOCIETY is
the likely winner. This isn't a stable I like though.
Brian Meehan is almost too dangerous a trainer
to rely on with a short priced horse. The angle I
liked best was that ALDEBURGH finished behind
him last time and should improve and may well
be the main danger. He did make some appeal
as a Place bet or even for the exacta or forecast.
Selection
ALDEBURG - Half your stake to place 3/1
SECULAR SOCIETY - ALDEBURG - Half stakes on Exacta
C a t t e r i c k 12.55
13/8 Aalim, 11/4 Zip Wire, 5/1 Spin Cast
6/1 Dark Dune, 10/1 Martin Chuzzlewit
20/1 After The Storm, 20/1 Mohawk Ridge
33/1 Dissidancer, 33/1 Young Jay, 50/1 Spring Back
100/1 Bellingo.
Not many can win this maiden hurdle. It should
be interesting to see a 3 year old AALIM run in a
maiden hurdle against older horses. There have
been 29 horses aged 3 that have tried to win any
maiden hurdle in December over 2m and 2m 1f.
Only Domino Dancer won from those 29 horses.
He had 2 previous hurdle runs and AALIM has 1
but he is from a smart stable and I wouldn't see
him as a negative. DARK DUNE is a horse that I
opposed last week. I hate his Sires record with
horses aged 3 or more on softer ground. He did
not offer me enough. ZIP WIRE has an obvious
chance and could easily win it if the 3yo AALIM
fails. I do like SPIN CAST to place. If you look at
his Numbers over hurdles they are progressive
and that was from a much smaller yard. He has
now upgraded stables to a better trainer. I don't
like that he's ridden by his former trainer but I
can live with it. I think SPIN CAST should place.
Selection
SPIN CAST
Either as a Place only Bet or an Each Way Bet
L i n g f i e l d 1.40
3/1 Arch Villain, 3/1 Clerk´s Choice
6/1 Be Perfect, 6/1 Gabrial´s King, 6/1 Theology
8/1 Icebuster, 16/1 Shelford, 16/1 Swinging Hawk.
This is a 2m Handicap. This is the first Class 2
handicap in December run over 2 miles so we
have no angles at all as it is a new race. I will
have to preview this on assumptions. I wasn't
convinced about CLERK´S CHOICE. He scraped
home in a 0-86 last time his first win for 3 years
and now steps up two grades into a 0-94. He's
from an underperforming stable as well. I feel
ICEBUSTER is unsafe from an 11f race and all
his wins are in lower marks and lower grades.
SWINGING HAWK doesn't offer enough. There
would be no surprise if SHELFORD won but he
has been quiet recently and isn't safe enough.
ARCH VILLAIN won last time out but that was
38 days ago and I don't like betting horses that
win over a month ago especially when having
a career high mark like him. THEOLOGY has a
nasty absence and a miserable strike rate and
that is off-putting. GABRIAL´S KING has a career
high mark and has never won in this class and
going up in distance compounds that problem.
My best guess would be BE PERFECT mainly
because he has recent run over 2 miles and is
much better off at today's weights than when
he finished behind Clerk's Choice last time out.
Selection
BE PERFECT 5/1
C a t t e r i c k 1.55
5/1 Ghaabesh, 5/1 Qasser, 6/1 D´argent Cloud
6/1 Johnnys Legacy, 8/1 Queen Of Epirus
10/1 Forget And Forgive, 10/1 Highland River
12/1 Monthly Medal, 12/1 Ptolomeos, 14/1 So Bazaar
16/1 Newdane Dancer, 20/1 Breeze With Ease
25/1 Two Oscars.
This is a Selling Handicap Hurdle over 2m. It's quite
a grubby little contest and presents me with several
little dilemmas. I have bad memories of this race as
last year I strongly fancied one only to then suffer as
he unseated his rider at the first fence. Fingers burnt
there so wary today. The past history of this race does
suggest you want a horse with plenty of recent races
and a recent run. Last years winner did have a break
before winning but had my horse not fallen last year
I think he'd have added to a strong record of horses
winning with recent runs. NEWDANE DANCER lacks
that as does PTOLOMEOS and SO BAZAAR. There is
a 0-57 record with female horses in this race which
puts me off QUEEN OF EPIRUS a little. Staying with
horses that have a recent run I do have a dilemma.
* 16 of the 18 winners ran within 59 days
* However look at horses that ran within 7 days
* They have a strangely poor 0-26 record
* JOHNNYS LEGACY ran well 2 days ago
* GHAABESH ran well 2 days ago
* Normally I'd be all over these two like a Rash
* Normally that very recent run would sway me
* That 0-26 record just tempers my enthusiasm
* Not sure what substance there is in that statistic
* I am going to reluctantly oppose this pair
* It goes against my natural instinct to do this
I don't fancy FORGET AND FORGIVE hammered
at 200/1 in a Maiden Hurdle recently and I can't
find a winner like him. BREEZE WITH EASE has
an unsafe profile well beaten in recent chases
and is another unlike any winners. Horses that
were hammered recently occasionally do win
but none were like D´ARGENT CLOUD and he's
unsafe on his current form.
* QASSER is a 4 year old with a recent run
* I looked at 4 year olds under 7 hurdle runs
* There was a 2-31 record with these types
* None of these came from handicaps like him
* All 18 lost so he is not exactly like a winner
Selection
I don't think I am safe to rule out Qasser and
it does not sit well with me that I've ignored
both Ghaabesh and Johnnys Legacy having
a very recent run. My angles though lead me
towards HIGHLAND RIVER. Whilst I'm not as
confident as I was in last years race there is
a lot to like. Plenty of similar races went to
horses down in trip like him. He is fit and a
run 8 days before fits in nicely with winners.
HIGHLAND RIVER 7/1
Each Way
L i n g f i e l d 2.10
4/1 Absolutely So, 9/2 Kuanyao, 5/1 Blessington
11/2 Glastonberry, 6/1 Foxtrot Jubilee, 8/1 Palace Moon
12/1 Panther Patrol 12/1 Sandfrankskipsgo
25/1 Intomist 33/1 Welliesinthewater.
* This is a 6f handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* There are 131 similar races at this time of year
* Horses absent 4 + Months had a 1-94 record
* ABSOLUTELY SO has 402 days off and just two runs
* I thought he was too inexperienced
* None of the following interested me
* PALACE MOON - SANDFRANKSKIPSGO
* WELLIESINTHEWATER is underraced this year
* INTOMIST hasn't done enough
* PANTHER PATROL didn't come out well
* GLASTONBERRY is an exposed older mare
* She has never won in this class or off her current mark
* There are better options in the race
Shortlist
* PALACE MOON is clearly very well treated
* He does have some problems though
* He is 8 and absent 30 days and Drawn 1
* Horses aged 8 + absent 3 + weeks were 1-34
* Throw in Stall one and there are risks
* PALACE MOON is shortlistable but not for me
* KUANYAO - Neutral profile winning over 7f last time
* No horse like him tried to win with a similar profile
* FOXTROT JUBILEE has a reasonable profile
* BLESSINGTON - Been disappointing but I like him
* He was 2nd in a much better race at Ascot in October
* He would win this on that form
* Heavy ground caused him to flop next time
* He hated that ground and also looked to Bounce
* Next time he disappointed over 6f at Lingfield
* He was Drawn 12 of 12 that day though
* Since 2012 there were 207 races here over 6f
* Horses drawn 12 have a 0-54 record in these races
* That is a draw no horse has overcome in 2012
* Last time was a good run in a decent handicap
* If he repeats that he will go close here
* BLESSINGTON has this decent profile
* Horses aged 3
* Coming from a 6f handicap
* Running within a Month
* Beaten under 10 lengths last time out
* Having between 5-6-7 career starts
* Horses with this profile had a 3-10 record
Selection
BLESSINGTON 11/2
Each Way
C h e p s t o w 2.35
6/1 Goonyella, 13/2 Well Refreshed, 8/1 Highland Lodge
9/1 Merry King, 10/1 Hawkes Point, 12/1 Teaforthree
12/1 Tidal Bay, 14/1 Goulanes, 14/1 Mountainous
16/1 Amigo, 16/1 Vintage Star, 20/1 Hey Big Spender
20/1 Tour Des Champs, 20/1 Wyck Hill, 25/1 Ace High
25/1 Knock A Hand, 25/1 One In A Milan, 25/1 Red Rocco
33/1 Chartreux, 50/1 Harouet.
* The Welsh National is a 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* It is a race we have traditionally done well in
This years race is unusual as we have a topweight
in TIDAL BAY who is rated 163 and has compressed
the weights forcing many out of the handicap. This
in my view increases his chance as the class horse.
When you consider the next highest weighted horse
TEAFORTHREE is a seasonal debutant and none of
these have won this race in Decades it means that
if we can rule TEAFORTHREE out then TIDAL BAY's
only has a 0-144 class field to beat. That gives him
a chance and I respect him. Statistically though he
should not be winning this based on the following.
* I looked at horses aged 11 or more in this race
* Records go back to 1976 and none have won
* TIDAL BAY is a 12 year old and none won aged 11 +
* None aged 11 + has placed in this race in 16 years
* Throw in the fact he has Topweight of 11st 12lbs
* Only 2 of the last 33 winners had 11st 7lbs or more
*
* I looked at Handicap Chases over 3m 3f +
* Those in Listed and Graded Class
* There are 142 of these races
* I looked at horses aged 12 like TIDAL BAY
* These was a disappointing 1-171 record
* The winner was Amberleigh House (2004 Grand National)
* Despite all that I would still consider him as a saver
* His chance at these compressed weights is so obvious
* My angles say he shouldn't be able to win
* Not sure I agree myself but I reluctantly pass him over
* The last 17 winners were aged 6-7-8-9
* 22 of the last 23 winners were aged 6-7-8-9
* Only 1 horse aged 10 has won since 1987
* That was Riverside Boy back in 1993
* The only 10yo winner before that was back in 1976
* I would be wary about betting a 10 year old
* HEY BIG SPENDER is a 10 year old
* I don't see him defying a penalty in this race
* Not on ground that he doesn't really appreciate
* Horses with 11st 1lbs and more have struggled
* Just two have won since the 1994 winner
* These were lightly raced with 4 and 5 Chase starts
* I'd want a lightly raced horse with 11st 1lbs or more
* HEY BIG SPENDER doesn't fit that criteria
* I want a horse that's been laid out for the race
* In this race horses running within 2 weeks are 0-27
* KNOCK A HAND fails this and looks wrong
* No winners came from a Novice Handicap like him
* His sire hasn't bred a winner over anywhere near this far
* Most winners had form in Graded Races
* ONE IN A MILAN doesn't have that
* He is too far out of the weights and pulled up last time
* RED ROCCO also lacks Graded form as well
* There were 2 winners aged 6 since 1976
* Both had Grade 1 -Grade 2 backclass
* RED ROCCO has never been beyond Class 2 yet
* AMIGO comes here well beaten both runs this year
* I don't want him as an out of form 6 year old
* Both 6yo winners had more backclass than him
* Pricewise took a punt on him at 40/1 ante post
* He should run his best race of the year today
* It's a leap of faith to think he can win this though
* His sire hasn't bred a winner over 3m 2f yet
* I'd have preferred a better last run and he isn't for me
* HAROUET pulled up at 66/1 in this race last year
* I don't think he has the class or stamina
* CHARTREUX is out of his depth
* WYCK HILL doesn't offer me enough
* It's a while since he ran a decent race
* Not sure he will cope with class-distance-ground
* ACE HIGH has recently upgraded stables
* He would be the joint least experienced winner
* He would be the lest experienced 9yo winner
* That said he has won here and is well treated
* He is out of the handicap though
* He also has the worst jockey in the race on career wins
* Not keen enough to risk a 7lbs claimer riding
* TOUR DES CHAMPS - I don't have a big problem with him
* I give him an outside chance
* He has raced 13 times beyond Class 3 and lost all 13
* Profile suggests he's biting more off than he can chew
* MOUNTAINOUS lacks graded backclass
* That worries me but he is lightly raced
* He will like the ground but will that be enough ?
* He has no form in big field handicaps like this
* No Backclass and No big field form makes him risky
* MERRY KING comes from the Hennessy
* HIGHLAND LODGE comes from the Hennessy
* Go back to 1988 for Horses coming via the Hennessy
* In 23 years the record of these horses is 0-49
* So Far all 49 that tried to win have failed to do so
* The Role of Failures includes Horses beaten at these odds
* 5/2f , 11/2 , 9/4f , 4/1, 13/2 ,11/2, 5/2f , 11/2 , 8/1
* 11/2 8/1, 9/1 5/1, 11/2 , 7/2, 13/2 7/2 9/2 5/2f 11/4
* Last years runner up did come from the Hennessy
* It is still not the best trial race though
* MERRY KING has plenty of ability
* He's had two tough races in a row for a 6 year old
* I couldn't make him a negative on that Hennessy stat
* It is enough to put me off him though
* He also took in Cheltenham last year
* Most recent winners skipped the festival
* The last 5 winners did as did 7 of the last 8 winners
* I just can't justify him as a selection
* HIGHLAND LODGE also comes from the Hennessy
* He's also had 2 hard races this year
* He also took in Cheltenham last March as well
* The 7yo winners of this were W W 2 W W last time out
* Not a safe statistic but he fails this as well
* I don't want to choose him coming from the Hennessy
* HIGHLAND LODGE is therefore rejected
* GOULANES has raced once this season
* He was beaten 37 lengths in that race
* All past 7yo winners were W W 2 W W last time out
* GOULANES fails this and he only has 6 National Hunt runs
* Past winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 10 34 12 20 16 20 10 19 11 33 18 14 31 14 21
* GOULANES with 6 runs has 4 fewer than all of them
* His sire hasn't had a 3m 2f winner yet
Shortlist
* VINTAGE STAR has been in good form this season
* He is also the right type of 7yo winner as well
* I think there is a doubt about the big field
* The track would also be an unknown factor
* He will need a career best off 143
* I don't have enough negatives to keep him off the shortlist
* WELL REFRESHED is a huge runner
* I looked at his Sires runners
* Those over 3m 3f + on Soft-Heavy in Class 2 + are 2-5
* He passes all my main angles in the race
* I see him capable of winning this off 141
* He doesn't have any form at Chepstow though
* Thats a worry as his first 3 Chase wins are on sharp tracks
* He did win a Graded Haydock Chase over 3m 4f
* This track would still have to add to the risk of betting him
* So would him jumping as he does clout a few
* He will need a career best to win
* GOONYELLA is a 6yo fancied Irish Raider
* He is not without some statistical problems
* The least experienced winner had 10 National Hunt runs
* GOONYELLA has only had 8 National Hunt runs so far
* I can live with his inexperience as he has points form
* He doesn't have any Graded Backclass
* Most winners had that and both 6yo winners did
* His connections demand the greatest of respect though
* You'd have to argue he is well treated and consistent
* HAWKES POINT is an 8 year old
* With 10 runs he'd be the least experienced 8yo winner
* There are positives about him though
* He likes the track and the ground
* He has a top class trainer laying him out today
* He did Pull up the only time he ran over a long distance
* I made him a negative that day and he had excuses
* HAWKES POINT has to be considered here
* Ignore the top 2 weights and this is only a 0-144
* Hard to argue he can't win a 0-144 off a mark of 137
Taking a slightly different route now to try and get
a perspective about the ground and the going stick.
Table 1
* Horses with winning form
* When the Going stick is 5.5 or lower
* The first number is the Going Stick reading
* Today's Going Stick is 4.8
3.8 WELL REFRESHED - AMIGO
4.4 MOUNTAINOUS
4.8 WELL REFRESHED
4.9 HIGHLAND LODGE
5.0 WELL REFRESHED
5.2 HAWKES POINT - HAWKES POINT - TOUR DES CHAMPS
5.5 GOULANES - TOUR DES CHAMPS
WELL REFRESHED has winning form when the
going stick was 5.5 or less. He has the joint 1st
4th and 6th lowest Going stick victories. Sharing
top spot is AMIGO but his run came over hurdles.
The table clearly shows WELL REFRESHED best.
I should say this excludes Goonyella as there is
no going stick in Ireland so I couldn't look at him.
Table 2
* The Highest Racing Post Ratings
* When the Going stick is 5.5 or lower
150 WELL REFRESHED
149 HIGHLAND LODGE
147 MERRY KING
146 TOUR DES CHAMPS
145 HAWKES POINT - GOULANES - TOUR DES CHAMPS
143 WELL REFRESHED
141 HEY BIG SPENDER
138 MOUNTAINOUS
WELL REFRESHED again tops this table and when
the Going stick was 5.5 or lower he has recorded
the biggest number. He tops both of these tables.
Selection
WELL REFRESHED 8/1
Each Way
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