No Bet Today



T o d a y 's M e s s a g e



I love Sunday Messages and the diversity that is
available. I like to keep the message on Sunday
open to anything I like with no restrictions and I
don't usually bother with a bet and there isn't one
today. That said its a good message to play with.

The week has been quiet in terms of how many
bets we have had. Thats a Post Royal Ascot effect
and a consequence of a Poor Ascot. It's similar to
when a Cricket team lose a couple of wickets the
next over is often designed not to score but to try
and not lose another wicket and at least we have
managed that even if it was uninspiring at times.

I've tried to Nurse the messages back to form this
week and stopped a losing run developing. It has
been a bit boring. I haven't enjoyed the week not
with the weather changing and the workload that
high summer demands. It's over now and Sunday
will end the week and having steadied the ship
I will be returning to the account next week.


T o d a y 's O p t i o n s

Some really interesting races today and plenty
of difficult decisions about what to bet. There's
no end of each way double options should we
go down that route but I don't want to do that.


Salisbury 5.40

LUCKY MOUNTAIN 16/1 Each Way

THE SCUTTLER 4/1 Saver Bet

The bottom line is this race is ridiculous and
far too hard to consider a bet in. I wanted to
try and break it down though. I bet that there
is nobody in the game that has looked at this
race in more detail than me. Thats probably
wont matter. Its still too hard and I wouldn't
even be mentioning the race were it not for
the fact I landed on a 20/1 selection. This is
a race for a throwaway fiver and no more.




Curragh 3.35

PRINCESS HIGHWAY 6/1 Each Way

AMBIVALENT 16/1 Saver Bet

I've never done the Pretty Polly Stakes before
so in the dark here but I liked the shape of the
race and wouldnt put anyone off a small bet.


No interest in a bet today. The message may
be worth following as its quite diverse and it
should have winners. With no Tennis on this
wouldn't be a bad way to spend an afternoon
but nothing looks too serious today so I want
to end a quiet week quietly and the drought
can now be ended and more bets can flow.





2 Year Old To Follow

MUSICORA

Richard Hannon

I think this will win soon after two very interesting
runs. What I like about him is that in both his two
races he has ran well from the worst draw in each
race. Both runs were at Doncaster and both times
he was Drawn one. If you look at the 59 races that
Doncaster has had since 2010 over 6f with at least
11 runners horses from the Lowest Stall were 0-59
and MUSICORA has certainly been disadvantaged
by this. He started favourite on his debut finishing
5th from the worst of the draw and his second run
last Friday was also when having the worst draw.
Richard Hughes chose to ride MUSICORA last time
but the stable second string (Mahlah) won from a
higher draw. Richard Hughes will see MUSICORA
as superior to Mahlah who's now a maiden winner
on a Grade 1 track. Unless MUSICORA is given an
unrealistic task next time or has another horrible
draw I would think he is capable of winning any
well chosen maiden his trainer decides to exploit.





S a t u r d a y s S u m m a r y

There were four options 4 yesterday resulting in
a winner two places and a loser. I went with the
each way double and win savers on two horses
and ended up with two placed horses. Both ran
well and returns will depend on what prices we
took. At Starting Price the stake of £10 returned
£7.08 so we ended up getting just over 70% back.
PASTORAL PLAYER badly missed the break and
it cost him 4 lengths. He was beaten two lengths
so there is an argument he would have won the
race with a level start. I think he would but the
jockey at least made sure he placed which was
a decent effort given his position. MAYBEAGREY
placed comfortably behind the favourite which
was always a possibility. As a bet it lacked any
inspiration much as it was safe enough. Seems
a fair reflection of the message. Uninspired but
safe enough in places not to get into difficulty.

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WINDSOR

I don't like this card and couldn't be bothered to
waste time in so many of the smaller fields here.

CURRAGH

Just a quick scan through one or two things in
Ireland at the Curragh. Not too much I can do
in some races but others do look interesting.

UTTOXETER

My hearts not in this track and my angles are
not persuading me to change that position.


SALISBURY

I should be very clear about the Salisbury 5.40
as I have done a detailed preview here. I chose
it as it looked simply impossible and I want to
test my angles in this race and hopefully come
up with something that nobody has considered.
I have found things that interest me. The result
will tells us whether I've wasted my time or not
but as a preview it is a deliberate attempt to do
an impossible handicap to see how we get on.





U t t o x e t e r 1.40

* Maiden Hurdle around 2m 4f
* Looks to be 4 runners to consider
* BILLFROMTHEBAR just has the best profile
* Wasn't enough for me to get excited about




W i n d s o r 2.20

13/8 Close At Hand, 7/2 Alegra, 7/2 Cloudwalker
5/1 First Secretary, 12/1 Timeless, 14/1 Wedding Speech
25/1 Calling, 33/1 Howlin Moon, 66/1 My Peggy Sue
100/1 Roxy Lane.

* CLOSE AT HAND may win this fillies maiden over a Mile
* She has 3 runs now and is slowly improving
* She improved her Racing Post rating each time she ran
* I'd rather trust her than an unraced horse
* CLOSE AT HAND should be good enough to win





S a l i s b u r y 2.30

2/1 Truth Or Dare, 5/2 Mabdhool, 6/1 Cotton Club
10/1 Aristocracy, Princess Tilly, 12/1 Cricklewood Green
14/1 Almost Famous, 20/1 My Anchor, 20/1 Solo Hunter
33/1 Loving Your Work, Just Rubie, 100/1 My Secret Dream.

The maiden at 2.30pm is quite typical of the issues
you get in these races. TRUTH OR DARE should go
well but the standard he sets is hardly high and I'd
see MABDHOOL as a better option. His trainer will
have left him short of fitness first time and he had
the worst draw at Sandown. I fancy MABDHOOL a
horse that could be used for an each way double.

Selection

MABDHOOL 2/1





C u r r a g h 2.35

The Grangecon Stud Stakes is not too relevant
statistically as there are 2 Royal Ascot failures
and not many have tried to win this from Ascot.

HEART FOCUS has to be the selection because
his Racing Post Rating are dominant and it's a
race I wouldn't use statistics in. I like him best.

Selection - HEART FOCUS






S a l i s b u r y 3.30

Not bothered about the 3.30pm sprint handicap as
it's a "Seniors" race and not enough of those have
been run yet to get any serious angles. The very
low draws look vulnerable and the winner should
have raced at least three times this year within 15
days but there isn't a silver bullet statistic to apply.





C u r r a g h 3.35

5/2 Alive Alive Oh, 4/1 Was, 9/2 Princess Highway
6/1 Shirocco Star, 10/1 La Collina, 10/1 Rehn´s Nest
12/1 Ambivalent, 12/1 Harasiya, 14/1 Cruck Realta, 16/1 Say.

* The Pretty Polly Stakes is a fillies Group 1 over 10f
* This race has not gone to inexperienced horses
* Past winners had the following number of races
* 8 8 13 10 6 6 26 17 17 4 11

* This race has been won by 3 year olds
* They all came from the Oaks though over 12f
* REHN´S NEST wouldnt interest me from a mile
* Not hammered last week at Ascot
* HARASIYA is rejected as a 3yo with 1 run this year at 8f
* ALIVE ALIVE OH is a 3yo and she comes from 10f
* She isn't like recent 3yo winners because of that
* ALIVE ALIVE OH only has 3 career starts
* Past winners had 8 8 13 10 6 6 26 17 17 4 11 runs
* I think she is too risky given she's a short price

* WAS was a lucky winner of last years Oaks
* Not overkeen she comes from 8f with 1 run this year
* SHIROCCO STAR comes from 9f with 1 run this year
* Not a profile that draws me in to be honest
* LA COLLINA wouldnt be first choice

Shortlist

* AMBIVALENT - I don't have a problem with her
* 20/1 and not my favourite stable but she could go well

* PRINCESS HIGHWAY was beaten at odds on last time
* She hated the ground at Naas and had excuses
* She won the Ribblesdale last year
* I don't think she stayed 12f of soft after that
* First time she's had conditions she likes for a while

Selection

PRINCESS HIGHWAY 6/1 Each Way

AMBIVALENT 16/1 Saver Bet




C u r r a g h 4.10

9/2 Manuka, 5/1 Buy Back Bob, 6/1 Eighteen Summers
10/1 Beach Of Falesa, 10/1 Shake The Bucket
12/1 Empress Of Tara, 12/1 Prince Chaparral, 14/1 Chill
14/1 Clondaw Warrior, 14/1 Welsh Nayber, 16/1 Teajaybe
20/1 Phangio, 20/1 Stoichkhov, 20/1 Strandfield Lady
25/1 Badger Or Bust, 25/1 Birzali.

* This is a big field handicap over 12f
* There is a draw advantage here
* Since 2010 there has been 26 races here over 12f
* Thats 26 races with 10 or more runners
* Horses drawn 14 or more are 0-78 in these races
* The 2 market leaders are drawn 14 and 15
* BUY BACK BOB is drawn 15
* MANUKA is drawn 14
* I'd be looking to oppose these two
* No idea about the opposition though
* If they win perhaps it will be because they are superior
* I just wanted to point out this draw bias
* I will leave it with you as to any strategy




S a l i s b u r y 4.40

In the 4.40pm I was not convinced about favourite
MIDNITE ANGEL. Perhaps BIOGRAPHY is the better
bet each way but both are from the same stable so
that complicates things . The race is best ignored.




S a l i s b u r y 5.10

I think THOUWRA should win the 5.10pm but there
are dangers and his profile isn't strong enough for
me to be able to get excited at a short price. I feel
he probably will win though given his opposition.




S a l i s b u r y 5.40

4/1 Fair Comment, 9/2 The Scuttler, 6/1 Just Isla
6/1 Penang Power, 8/1 Toffee Shot, 10/1 Loraine
10/1 Lucky Mountain, 12/1 Thomasina, 14/1 Spanish Art
20/1 Cool And Clear, 20/1 Something Magic
20/1 Terpsichore, 25/1 Marguerite St Just, 33/1 So Lyrical.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 8f for Apprentice Riders
* These sorts of races are so complicated to understand
* I plan to try and sort this through a combination of methods
* Statistical Work - Video Analysis - Ratings Comparisons

* The Draw is very interesting over a Mile here
* Since 2011 there have been 20 races here
* Thats 20 handicaps with 9 or more runners
* Winners were drawn in the following stalls
* 12 12 6 10 10 1 5 10 10 9 12 14 11 9 9 11 5 7 5 12
* 19 of the 20 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 were just 1-74

* SO LYRICAL makes no appeal Drawn 1
* She's only had 1 run since last April
* LORAINE doesn't interest me in Stall 2
* Her profile was unimpressive and may want further
* Given her last run on tape and breeding she wants 12f
* PENANG POWER is not drawn well in Stall 3
* She is filly that is coming down in distance
* There were 18 winning fillies doing that
* Those with under 5 career starts were just 1-49
* iT was a 33/1 shock winner (Double Star) from a maiden
* Hammered last time she doesn't look safe to me
* SPANISH ART isn't drawn well in Stall 4
* I looked at horses from 3yo sellers like him
* There was a 6-101 record but all 6 winners were fillies
* Male horses like him doing it were 0-55
* SPANISH ART doesn't offer me enough
* His rider also has a 0-32 career record so far
* TERPSICHORE doesn't appeal down from 12f
* MARGUERITE ST JUST - I wanted more runs this year
* With 9 runs already I needed that to match her
* COOL AND CLEAR was well beaten over 7f last time
* Worries me he only has 2 runs this season
* The 1 horse winning like him had far more backclass
* COOL AND CLEAR was sold for just £400 recently
* Since then he has finished last in both his races
* SOMETHING MAGIC is a filly hammered over 10f last time
* There were a few fillies that won doing that
* Those that had 7 or more career starts won 4 races
* All 4 winners had at least 5 runs that season
* SOMETHING MAGIC lacks that and hasn't shown enough
* She's hardly beaten an opponent in her last 4 runs
* THOMASINA is a filly well beaten over 10f last time
* Its not a disastrous profile by any means
* She needs to be forgiven a couple of runs
* I would have liked a better last run


Possibles

* JUST ISLA is a filly from an 8f handicap
* She has 4 career starts
* The 2009 winner of this was reasonably similar
* I thought she ran well at Bath last time
* I would prefer a nit more experience
* She's also ridden by a 16 year old boy

* TOFFEE SHOT is a filly with 3 runs
* She was beaten 10 + lengths in an 8f maiden
* Similar horses had a 2-18 record
* Both horses did have less weight though
* One of them won a similar race here (Jill Dawson 2006)
* TOFFEE SHOT has to be a positive
* My biggest worry is his underachieving trainer John Hills

* FAIR COMMENT is a filly from an 8f handicap
* Not too bad a profile without being perfect
* There were some with fewer runs and more runs
* None with 9-12 runs like her
* I'd have liked more backclass with her having Topweight
* Video last time was positive
* She had something up her sleeve
* She is down in class with a recent run


S h o r t l i s t

* THE SCUTTLER has won a race before
* More than most of these can say
* I cant match him to any winners
* Because he comes from a Classified Stakes race
* I think his form is the best in the race though
* Statistically unsafe but stands out on a few runs
* Has to be part of the staking plan

* LUCKY MOUNTAIN - Nothing wrong with his profile
* Lots of positives and a recent run
* His last run was better after a string of bad runs
* They were over 12f and I wonder if he doesn't stay 12f
* His Sire was a sprinter after all
* If he doesn't stay 12f he has perfect excuses
* Back at a Mile he ran much better last time
* He didn't have the run of the race that day
* At a big price there is a definite case for him

Selection

LUCKY MOUNTAIN 16/1 Each Way

THE SCUTTLER 4/1 Saver Bet

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